Ravaged by unabated ethnic violence, the North Central geo-political zone once considered President Goodluck Jonathan’s biggest hopes of capturing northern votes come 2015, based on religious and political antecedents, has suddenly become very tricky and dicey with the opposition fracturing the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) strongholds, reports Sunday Oguntola
It should be a fait accompli. With four incumbent governors out of a possible six and a fourth-term Senate President in its kitty, the re-election bid of President Goodluck Jonathan come 2015 should be a resounding success in the North Central. In the entire North, it is the region that boasts of the fiercest support base and foot soldiers for the President’s re-election campaign. It has traditionally been a conservative, establishment region with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) having a smooth ride across the states.
But these are indeed changing times. The political climate across Kogi, Kwara, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Niger State and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), constituting the North Central zone is evolving with dire consequences for the President’s chances of carrying the region. A series of high-powered defections, internal wrangling, communal crises, general disenchantments and strategic penetrations by the opposition are conspiring to sweep the carpets off the feet of the president and his foot soldiers.
Key political realignments and the influences of heavyweights have also dimmed the President’s chances in the bastion of the PDP. From Kwara to Kogi, Benue to Niger and Nasarawa State, the PDP’s firm grips on the region are crumbling, fuelling concerns over the number of votes the President can garner at the poll.
The fact that Governors Jonah Jang (Plateau), Gabriel Suswam (Benue) and Muazu Aliyu (Niger) are second-termers who might be unable to superintend during the presidential polls would also further dwindle the votes Jonathan can secure from their states. The three governors are eyeing senatorial seats and will be fighting the political battles of their lives on the same day with the President.
A political analyst, James Ibe, said the governors would be so pre-occupied with their senatorial ambitions that they would have no time to deliver critical votes to the President. Ibe said: “It’s a fact that when you are up against formidable oppositions, you consider your interests first before helping your friends and allies. If you have a senatorial election on the same day as the President, it is just logical that you will be more committed to securing your future first before looking out for the President, regardless of how friendly you are with him.”
According to the election time table released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Presidential and National Assembly polls hold on February 14, 2015. Of the other three governors in the region, Idris Wada (Kogi), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara) and Umaru Almakura (Nasarawa), only Wada is in the PDP. Ahmed and Almakura belong to the All Progressive Congress (APC) and will be motivated to deliver their states to the party at the presidential polls to guarantee their second term bids.
Kwara State
This is the state that will give the President’s re-election bid the fiercest opposition. The political leader of Kwara State, Senator Bukola Saraki, has dumped PDP for the APC with his political structures. The governor followed suit, taking nearly all the Assembly members along. It is said that Saraki has a personal score to settle with Jonathan, who has been unrelenting on his assaults against the former governor.
At a recent rally in Ilorin, the capital city, Jonathan vowed that the PDP will regain the state. He promised those who defected from the PDP that they will live to regret their actions. When his arrowhead in the state, Hajiya Bola Shagaya, led members of the Kwara PDP to the Presidential Villa on a thank-you visit, Jonathan reiterated his determination to recapture the state.
He said: “We remain very grateful and from what we saw that day, I do not think we need a soothsayer to say that Kwara is totally for the PDP. In 2015, we will know who owns Kwara. And if God gives us the opportunity, which I believe, probably we will even test our strength before 2015.
“All stolen mandates will return to PDP. And those who think they can run away with our mandates, as a member of the Assembly who refused to defect, you will have nothing to regret. Just celebrate it. If they think that PDP will allow them to run away with it, they will see it.
“We must take over the state structures of the party, the governor and the state Assembly, we must take all, because it is easy to reach the grassroots through the states than the center because the country is so big that by the time we distribute positions, you will not be noticed. But at the state level, we can touch more people”.
Saraki, on his part, said such dream remains only wishful. According to him, the election in the state will be a walkover for the APC. The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment and Ecology said: “We do not want to give any vote; we want to win the total votes. We want to send a message across Nigeria, we want to send a message to the pretenders that, in Kwara State; we are not seasonal politicians.
”For those that still want to learn in history, be rest assured that Kwara is solidly an All Progressives Congress (APC) state. Here, we are one family, here we are committed to delivering the entire Kwara State for the APC family”.
With the governor following his political leadership and the entire Assembly members and local government chairmen behind him, it is hard to see how Jonathan can boast any significant vote in Kwara come 2015. Among the President’s foot soldiers in Kwara include Senator Simeon Ajibola, Gbemi Saraki, Special Adviser to the President on National Assembly Matters, Suleiman Ajadi and Special Adviser to the President on Ethics, Sarah Jibril.
Prediction: A landslide defeat for Jonathan
Benue State
Home to Senate President, David Mark, Benue State has traditionally been a PDP state. But in 2011, it lost a senatorial seat to the APC along with many House of Representatives seats. The APC has been making spirited efforts to break the PDP’s strongholds in the state with relative successes. But the internal wrangling in the PDP and the hot battles for Suswam’s successor could turn out to work in APC’s favour.
Former governor and Senate Minority Leader, George Akume, is leading the APC’s army in the state. On the PDP’s side are Suswam, Mark, Lawrence Onoja and the deputy governor, Chief Steven Lawani. In the governorship race, the agitation by the Idoma ethnic group might be the game changer for the APC. The argument is that with components such as: Jemgbagh, Minda Kwande, Sankera and Jerchira in the Zone A and B districts of the Tiv land, there is no intention to relinquish power in the next dispensation until the last in the Tiv component, the Minda, has taken its turn.
The issue is tearing the PDP apart with Lawani, one of the main candidates from the Idoma-speaking part of the state said not to be enjoying the support of Suswam for the race. Barrister Emmanuel Jime, a House of Representatives member, is the only candidate for now to have indicated interest in the race under the platform of the APC. Before representing Makurdi/Guma Federal Constituency at the House, he was Speaker of the Assembly.
A grassroots mobiliser and popular figure, Jime’s scholarship scheme has garnered supports for him in all the three senatorial zones. The fact that he is married to an Idoma woman could also swing votes in his favour, should he win the APC ticket. The APC boasts of many of such political figures across the state, a development that is reducing PDP’s influence.
But the greatest threat to Jonathan’s victory is the recent Fulani herdsmen invasion in the state. Several communities and villages have been sacked and destroyed by the herdsmen, leading to massive displacement of indigenes. Investigations revealed the displaced indigenes, mostly Christians, have expressed shock over the inability of the Federal Government to come to their rescue.
A community head, last week, wondered if all they have gained from the current administration is the orgies of violence unleashed against them. “We voted PDP and Jonathan, then we get all these. Yet, nothing is being done. These cattle rustlers are ravaging and ransacking us and no one is doing anything,” he began. “In 2015, we are going to try another party. Maybe they will secure us and give us better security”.
Such general disenchantments over insecurity are rife in Benue with many considering seeking alternative government. With the seeming inability of the federal government to arrest the insurgency and herdsmen’s attacks with Benue worst hit, the state is becoming an unclear coast for a Jonathan’s victory in 2015. Prediction: 50-50 for Jonathan
Plateau State
With a reliable supporter like Jonah Jang, Jonathan is losing no sleep over winning Plateau State. The governor is the recognised Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) by the presidency, a telling testimony to his loyalty. The entire state structure will be Jonathan’s for asking come 2015. Of all the states in the region, Plateau is the most guaranteed for the President. There, he has the strongest supporters, ever loyal and reliable. The Christian inclination of the state is also a big plus for the president’s re-election bid.
Prediction: Landslide victory for Jonathan
Nasarawa State
With two of the three senators belonging to the APC, Nasarawa remains a swing state for the President. The governor has lost his deputy, Dameshi Luka, to the PDP. The House of Assembly is also not entirely in Al Makura’s control. But the APC remains strong in Nasarawa, especially with the arrival of former governor, Abdullahi Adamu. Al Makura is in charge of virtually all the chairmen, swelling the grassroots support of the APC.
The Minister of Information, Labaran Maku, is leading the president’s men and the PDP’s machinery. Maku is believed to be nursing governorship ambition, which means he will come face-to-face with Al-Makura who will also be seeking second term. He will be a real test for the governor with the federal structure and war chest at its disposal. Jonathan has vowed to recapture Nasarawa come 2015, ostensibly to promote his re-election bid.
While registering as a member of APC, Abdullahi said: “I want Nigerians to join APC and register. I am calling on them all to be part of the great change to wrest power from the PDP. We are a party out to salvage the country from years of tortuous backwardness. Nigerians should join the change team to defeat President Jonathan in 2015.”
That defeat for the President in Nasarawa is neither here nor there. Who wins the presidential votes will be largely determined by whoever the APC fields as its presidential aspirant. Should it be a candidate with mass appeal in the north, Jonathan’s votes would be almost nil. But if otherwise, the President could carry the day. It is a swing state where anything can happen.
Prediction: 50-50 against Jonathan
Kogi State
Despite the February 21 Supreme Court judgement, which affirmed his candidature, Kogi State Governor, Idris Wada, is still in the eyes of the storm. The PDP remains divided under his watch with his main challenger for the governorship ticket, Jibril Isah, popularly known as Echocho, seriously embittered. Isah, unfortunately for Wada, has large followership across the state.
During a reception in his honour after the Supreme Court affirmation, Wada appealed to Isah not to leave the party. He said his victory was a no victor, no vanquished verdict, urging Isah to join him in moving the party forward. Some sources alleged that Isah has resolved to work against the PDP within any election in the state.
Though the APC has reportedly made overtures to Isah, it was learnt that his men thought it would be better to fight as an insider for now to prove his political mettle and popularity. If he chooses to work with the APC, which boasts of former governor, Abubakar Audu and ex-Reps member, Dino Melaye, Isah will constitute a great impediment to a PDP’s victory in the state come 2015.
The APC has a senatorial seat in the state and the agitation by the Yoruba-speaking areas for the governorship slot could also work in the party’s favour. As things are, the state remains difficult to call in terms of where it will go during the presidential race in 2015.
Prediction: 50-50 in Jonathan’s favour
Niger State
The servant-governor, Muazu Aliyu, has publicly declared President Goodluck Jonathan will win the 2015 election. But political observers believe he is simply playing to the gallery. The governor, who was vociferously against the President, is suddenly singing a different tune because he was blackmailed with financial reports by the presidency, many allege.
Aliyu, who is chairman of the Northern Governors Forum, it was gathered, is simply playing along. When the chips are down, it is believed, he will never move against Northern agitation for power shift. Besides, he is nursing senatorial ambition, a development analysts say, will make him to be careful of moving against the tides.
The race for his succession is tearing the PDP in the state apart. Some are advocating for rotation while others believe the best candidates should be allowed to emerge.
By the zoning arrangement of the PDP, the Kontagora zone, aka Zone C should produce the next governor. Zone A (Bida) was in power in 1999- 2007 while Zone B (Minna) will conclude its two four-year terms in 2015.
Leading contestants include the deputy governor, Hon. Ahmed Ibeto; Commissioner of Finance, Muazu Bawa; Abubakar Sani Bello (Habu), former Commissioner of Commerce and son of retired Colonel Sani Bello and son-in-law of former head of state, General Abdulsalami Abubakar; PDP state secretary, Aminu Yusuf and former Minister of Commerce, Engineer Mustapha Bello.
Of the lot, Bello seems to be enjoying the support of key godfathers in the state though it was alleged the governor is against his choice. Bello has moved to the APC over a spat with the governor on policy matters. He is from Kontagora where the rotational policy favours. He has connections in high places with General Ibrahim Babangida, his late father’s course mate said to be rooting for him. Former FCT Minister, General Gado Nasko, is also there for him.
Should the PDP pick an aspirant from outside the Kontagora’s favoured zone, the coast might just be clear for Bello to emerge the next governor of the state. This will be more so if he goes for a running mate from Bida, which has the most voting numbers.
With Aliyu preoccupied with winning a seat to the Senate, like his many colleagues, the state might just go to the opposition for the first time in its history. The disposition of the two Heads of State, Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar, who are believed to be unimpressed by Jonathan’s performances, will also certainly affect the President’s chances.
Prediction: 70-30 against Jonathan
