The Nation Newspaper

Tag: North

  • Social inequality in the North

    Social inequality in the North

    Mass illiteracy in the region is a drag on national development

    Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mallam Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, threw a bombshell on April 11 when he addressed the Isaac Moghalu Foundation Leadership Lecture and Symposium in Abuja. Dwelling on Women in Leadership: the Education Pipeline, the CBN governor lamented the status of girls and women in the North, a region that has relentlessly come under fire in recent times, as insurgents have made the zone unattractive for foreign and domestic investors.

    The statistics he reeled out were frightening. He disclosed that more than 90 per cent of women and girls in the North West are unable to complete their secondary school education. He pointed out that, contrasted with figures from the South West where less than 10 per cent of girls stay out of schools, the inequality underlying such indices could be responsible for the restlessness, poverty and consequent insecurity in the North.

    The 51-year-old CBN governor said: “We are only treating the symptoms, not the ailment. We are spending so much on security, compared to education and healthcare services. We cannot succeed in security without fixing the original problems.”

    Questions have been asked about the performance of governments of the northern states in the past 52 years. Culturally, girls and women have been suppressed over the years, thus widening the inequality gap, not only between men and women in the region, but also dragging down the rate of development in the country. A survey by the British Council last year indicated that 80 per cent of women aged between 20 and 29 in eight states of the North were unable to read and write, the corresponding figure for the South was 54 per cent. The British Council’s Gender in Nigeria report further indicated that 94 per cent of women in Jigawa State and 42 per cent of the men in the state were illiterates.

    The document also brought up the shameful fact that two-thirds of girls between 15 and 19 years in the North are unable to read an English sentence, while, in the South, the figure is 10 per cent. Consequently, given the population of women and girls in the North and the poor literacy level in the region, Nigeria has been unable to advance towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goal on education, especially of the female folk. Nigeria ranks 111th of 134 countries on the Gender Equality Index.

    The rate of poverty, too, is growing very fast. While the national poverty rate in 1980 was put at 28 per cent, it has now almost doubled.

    The goal of education for all by 2015 is now a mirage as the token steps being taken by the federal and Northern states are not yielding results. At a point, the Babangida administration came up with the nomadic education plan to attract children of the Fulani herdsmen to the classrooms. It did not succeed. Currently, the Jonathan government is setting up almajiri model schools. This may go the same way as those hungrier for education could find their way to the schools and take over, thereby defeating the aims for which they were established.

    As Mallam Sanusi pointed out last year in a speech directed at entrepreneurs in the North, the region has remained poor, partly because of cultural practices that limit the education and productive engagement of women. This must be tackled by all in the public and private sectors. The disaster in the North should not be of concern to the region alone, but the whole country. As the country is thinking of ways to confront the security challenges, attention must be paid to the large army of illiterates and unemployed in the North. Education would reduce the pool from which arsonists and terrorists draw, and motivate the young to dispel rumours and false information.

    In tackling the menace, early marriage and child bearing must be confronted headlong through mass education and campaign. The British Council survey indicated that more than 50 per cent of women in the North get married before they attain the age of 16 and are expected to give birth within the first year of marriage. This is a major reason for the high percentage of illiteracy and ignorance in the region. So, governments at all levels should come up with incentives to encourage the girl child to embrace education. As a first step, all governments, especially in the North, should abolish the payment of levies and fees by girls and young women.

    The National Gender Policy, informed by the Beijing Plan of Action and the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women, formulated in 2006, is yet to be faithfully implemented. The policy should now be given fillip and closely monitored by the media and civil society groups.

  • The North Korea problem

    The North Korea problem

    Secretary of State John Kerrysent several important messages to North Koreaafter talks on Friday in Seoul with South Korean leaders. Speaking at a news conference, he said that the United States would defend its South Korean and Japanese allies if there was conflict, that the international community would never accept the North as a nuclear weaponsstate, and that Washington was willing to resume long-stalled negotiations but only if the North Koreans agreed to move seriously on denuclearization.

    But the window into North Korea’s nuclear intentions and American policy in response was as blurry as ever. The Defense Intelligence Agency rang alarms bellson Thursday with a report that it had concluded with “moderate confidence” that the North was capable of launching a missile with a nuclear warhead. Mr. Kerry and other officials later dismissed the report as premature.

    On Friday, in a background briefing for journalists, a senior American official played down an expected North Korean missile test, saying it might provide the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, with an “off ramp” to save face and de-escalate tensions. Hours later, Mr. Kerry used a news conference to warn Mr. Kim not to proceed with the test in an“already volatile, potentially dangerous situation,” saying Mr. Kim “needs to understand, as I think he probably does, what the outcome of the conflict would be.”

    In that climate, Mr. Kerry’s reaffirmation of American interest in negotiations could get lost, especially since he put the responsibility on the North to act first, by seriously committing to denuclearize, and seemed inclined to let South Korea’s new president, Park Geun-hye, move ahead first on her call for dialogue with North Korea.

    That’s worth trying, but China, the North’s only ally and chief benefactor, remains crucial to any progress and is going to have to apply more pressure on Pyongyang than it has so far.

    There are signs that some Chinese officials are becoming fed up with Mr. Kim’s threatening ways, and that should give Mr. Kerry a new opening when he visits Beijing on Saturday to make the argument that China’s support has allowed Mr. Kim to operate with impunity. For a country like China that values stability above all, that should be an untenable situation.

    North Korea poses a more imminent nuclear threat than Iran. But so far, Mr. Kerry’s continuing trip does not make us confident that the administration has a fully thought out strategy that will be any more successful than the current one, which has failed to curb either the North’s nuclear weapons program or its bellicosity.

     

    – New York Times

     

  • … Aliyu asks north to get involved

    … Aliyu asks north to get involved

    THE Chairman, Northern States Governors Forum (NSGF), Dr. Babangida Aliyu, said yesterday that the north should get actively involved in finding a solution to the Boko Haram insurgency.

    This, according to him, can be done if the states affected by the insurgency initiate contacts with the sect as soon as possible to prepare the ground for the smooth take-off of the federal government’s planned amnesty for the sect members.

    The Niger State governor spoke in Minna while declaring open the 24th Conference of Northern States Speakers Forum.

    He argued that the planned amnesty is no automatic solution to the security challenge in the country but only an opportunity to open discussion with the sect.

    He said the reported rejection of the amnesty offer by Boko Haram should not discourage government in any way.

    He said the development has only widened the scope for discussion.

    ‘’I think when people hear amnesty, they think it is something that is the solution to the security challenges. No, it is just a process. It is like say come and let us discuss. All what you have done, I am not going to look at that. But people think by amnesty the problem is solved, no,’’ he said.

    ‘’Because somebody says they are rejecting amnesty we are discouraged. No. It is part of the negotiation, it is raising the ante so that discussion will take place.’’

    He commended the Borno State government for setting up a committee on amnesty for members of the sect.

    He added: “We must not keep waiting for the Abuja people to come to our aid. Every state government facing security challenges should brace up and tackle the challenges.”

    He lamented that insecurity has further worsened the economy of the region and if nothing is done immediately the economy will crumble completely.

    Aliyu advised lawmakers to take advantage of their position as the most powerful arm of government to be up and doing in making law for the peace and stability of the country.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Dokubo: power can’t shift to North in 2015

    Dokubo: power can’t shift to North in 2015

     The leader of the Niger Delta Volunteers Force (NDVF), Alhaji Dokubo Asari, spoke with AUGUSTINE AVWODE in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State capital, on the presidential pardon for former Bayelsa State Governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, national security and agitation for a national conference.

     

    What is your reaction to the presidential pardon for former Bayelsa State Governor Depriye Alamieyeseigha?

    The criticisms are mischevious. In the first place, the President has the right under the constitution to exercise the prerogative of mercy. And because the right to do this is constitutional, it makes the view of anybody, which may be to contrary, null and void and of no effect whatsoever because it is done on the basis of the right granted and protected by the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Secondly, the whole world knows that the money stolen by Alamieyeseigha belongs to the people of Bayelsa State, his kith and kin. And the people of Bayelsa State have forgiven him long time ago and have rehabilitated him. In fact, the majority of Ijaw people feel that Alamieyeseigha was unjustly victimised. What we have discovered is that the majority of the people criticising the pardon because of politics stole much more than what Alamieyeseigha stole and they are walking free. The thinking here, if I must tell you the truth, is that our people have been used over time as sacrificial lamb. Go to any state and look into their financial records, come back and tell me if their money have never been stolen in a manner that is even worse than the celebrated case of Alamieyeseigha. What do you say of the people who are allowed to do plea bargaining and they are walking free? 2The Ijaw people feel they are being used as examples for the world that Nigeria is fighting corruption. But we are saying that, if we want to fight corruption, it should be holistic. All the governors who have ruled any state since 1999 should be brought and examined and interrogated and we would see how many saints are out there.

    You seem to be justifying Alamieyeseigha’s action? Is that not a vote in defence of corruption and corrupt practices?

    No. When Alamieyeseigha was governor, he was one of my greatest enemies. But be that as it may be, we have to forgive each other. And we know that that his conviction was manipulated by the Nigerian government under Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. Under Yar’Adua, many governors were given plea bargain, why was Alamieyeseigha not given plea bargain. Must he be convicted first? Look at the case of Cecilia Ibru. Why was she, first and foremost, convicted and others are given bail today, bail tomorrow, adjournment today and another one tomorrow. The picture I see is that of a plot to criminalise the people from the Niger Delta . It is an established pattern and it is not lost on us. All the people that stole money in the failed banks and so on, how many of them have been convicted? Why is it that it is only the people from the Niger Delta, why? This is the question we are asking. Unfortunately, they use our elite in government because of petty jealousy and hatred for each other to achieve their aims.

    If I may ask again, is your argument not a justification of corrupt practices because, clearly, that is the way many people will look at it.

    I said no, and I repeat no. Nobody is in support of corruption. I am not in support of it, it is evil, it is bad and we must oppose it. But when a pattern is established that it should be our people that must be disgraced while others walk free as their sins are covered up, we won’t accept it.

    Would you advise President Goodluck Jonathan to seek a second term in office in 2015?

    I am not a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) member. But even though I am not a PDP member, we will have two terms of uninterrupted presidency and we are not going to compromise it. All we are saying is that you have been ruling and this time we want our eight years and we are getting it. It is a simple as that; there is no magic that will stop it and no amount of figure you cook up can change it. If you try to take it from us, we will stop you, period. Whether it is President Goodluck Jonathan or any other person, the Southsouth region will have eight uninterrupted years. It is a constitutional right for Goodluck Jonathan to go for a second term. He knows that, it should not take my advising him before he does what he knows too well. Besides, I am not one of his advisers. All the people that are talking, since 1956 when self-rule started in Nigeria, what have they done to change the face of the country like other countries that got independence with us at the same time like Malaysia, which was also a British colony like us; like Singapore; what have they done to change the fortune of the country?. What did the previous administrations do to change Nigeria to Kuwait, Qatar or Saudi Arabia or Turkey. What did they do that Jonathan has not done? The Benin/Shagamu Expressway has changed from what it used to be. Jonathan made it possible. Now, people travel smoothly on it. Our airports at a point in time were looking like slaughter houses. See what is happening in the airport or aviation sector today. Go to Kano Airport, I flew from there. Go to others airports across the country. The railway has been on its kneels for many years. Today, for the first time in many years, train goes from Lagos to Kano. These are evidence that people can not wish away.

    Many people are calling for amnesty for the members of Boko Haram sect. What is your view?

    I have a different view about what you call amnesty. What was given is simply bribe to some people so that that they could stop kidnapping foreign oil workers and allow for peace so that production of oil can continue without interruption. It was a bribe and many of us saw through it and did not accept it. I considered it a bribe to enable us jettison our struggle. So, for me, based on your question, I support amnesty for those who claim to be Muslims but they are criminals. Can they be Muslims? I doubt. They are falsely claiming to be Muslims. So, if you want amnesty for them, fine, give it to them because amnesty really, should be for only convicted people. Pardon them, no more fighting, JTF is no more looking for them, to that extent it is ok. But the question is, what name will you call it? If it is to stop their being arrested and prosecuted, well fine. But if it is to provide for the payment of stipends as bribe like it is done now to allow oil to flow, then we need to ask, what will flow from there? I am in total support of it. If it was given to one set of people for whatever reason, it should also be given to the other set of people for whatever reason.

    What is your position on the call for a national conference?

    I am all for it. There should be a Sovereign National Conference where we would sit down and the decision of this conference should be put to a plebiscite and the outcome upheld. If not, we are just postponing the doomsday. Because the people who are doing the killing in the North, they are daring others. And let me tell you, the consequences of what is happening now in the North, by the time it fully arrives, it will be too late for them. Take the case of the bombs that exploded in a luxurious bus park, killing many innocent people, and immediately, you get phone calls saying Alhaji, please don’t make any comments, otherwise, there will be reprisal attacks, the leadership of other groups in the Southeast and Southwest are called and told to exercise restraint. Well, I am saying that a time is coming when people will no longer be able to persuade others to keep quiet. A time will come when nobody will be able to do that because it is becoming so glaring. What if the people making the phone calls become the victims tomorrow? So if the voice of reason is not allowed to prevail now, a time will come when ordinary people will invade Government Houses and say look here, they are killing our people and you are conniving. And it will be too late. But before it gets to that level, those who have good sense and know better than others should moderate because we cannot continue like this. It is impossible to continue like this and let nobody think about Biafra era, it is gone. We are gradually getting to a stage when people are just waiting for somebody to throw the first stone and people will rush out of their houses. Before then, there is the urgent need for those in the leadership position in the North to moderate now. If they don’t, what will happen, history has not conceived of it. The noise about the six million Jews will be small because you can’t continue to kill others and expect them not to retaliate.

    Will true federalism solve all these problems?

    Let Nigerians decide through a Sovereign National Conference. It is what they say that will determine whether it is federal or unitary. If it is not done now, the beast in men will soon show up. Soon, the perception that people are not ready to defend their rights will be proved to be a wrong assumption. I tell you that there are more people in this country who are ready to die defending themselves than be slaves in their country.

     

  • ‘North East ranks top in maternal mortality’

    Maternal mortality estimates in the North East zone are very high compared to those of the South West, the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Millennium Development Goals (SSAP-MDGs), Dr. Precious Gbeneol, has said.

    Gbeneol stated that apart from other hiccups, campaigns against maternal death among rural dwellers have yielded less result.

    The SSAP – MDGs disclosed this at a workshop organised for the validation of reports from the MDGs Acceleration Framework (MAF) technical session at the weekend in Abuja.

    Gbeneol said: “As you well know, there is a signi?cant urban-rural divide in estimates, with rural areas doing considerably worse.

    “Again as you know, there is signi?cant regional variation: maternal mortality estimates in the North East zone are very high, compared with low estimates in the South West zone.”

    Gbeneol, represented by the Director MDGs, Mr. Babalola Lateef, noted that government is concerned about incidences of women dying during pregnancy and child delivery.

    She restated her commitment to partnership with stakeholders in the health sector to fight the problem.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • North seeks amnesty for Boko Haram suspects

    North seeks amnesty for Boko Haram suspects

    -Governors Forum’s panel in talks with sect

    -Gunmen kill eight

     

    A committee set up by the Northern States Governors’ Forum has opened talks with some leaders of Boko Haram, The Nation learnt yesterday.

    The sect’s leaders promised to meet and convince its spiritual head, Imam Abubakar Shekau, to renounce violence, sources said.

    The panel made five recommendations to President Goodluck Jonathan, who is set to visit Borno and Yobe states — the main theatres of Boko Haram’s bloody campaign.

    The recommendations include unconditional amnesty for Boko Haram (Western education is a sin) members.

    These are the highlights of a report sent to the Northern States Governors’ Forum (NSGF) by the NSGF Committee on Reconciliation, Healing and Security.

    The report called for the immediate release of all detainees against whom there is no established case of criminal involvement.

    The Chairman of the Northern States Governors’ Forum, Dr. Muazu Babangida Aliyu, on August 22, last year inaugurated the 41-man panel headed by Amb. Zakari Ibrahim.

    Other members of the panel are: Prof. Tijani El-Miskin, Prof. Shedrack Best, Alhaji Abubakar Tsav, Prof. Habu Galadima, AIG Hamisu Ali Jos, Gen. Martin Luther Agwai, Prof. Muhammad Akaro Mainoma, Hajiya Dije Bala, Maj.-Gen. Yakubu Usman, Prof. Sani Abdulkadir, Air Vice Marshal Mukhtar Mohammed, Justice Umaru Abdullahi (c/o Governor of Katsina State), Haj. Mariam Uwais, Aminu Ibrahim Daurawa, Group Capt. Bilal Bulama [rtd], Col. Musa Shehu, Iliya Ithuve, Ali M. Dandiya, Gen. GP Zidon, Justice Usman Baba Liman, Sheikh Mohammed Isa, Bishop Mathew Hassan Kukah, Karibullah Nasiru Kabara, Sheikh Yusuf Sambo Rigachikun, Sheikh Ahmed Lemu, Bishop Michael E. Apochi, Imam Goni Mohammed Gabcha, Imam Salman Aboki A. Ankpa, Bishop Buba Lammido Wusasa, Rev. Kalla Abari and Alhaji Ibrahim Sulu Gambari, the Emir of Ilorin.

    The rest are: Alhaji Zaiyanu Abdullahi, the Emir of Yauri, Dr. Barkindo Aliyu Musdafa, the Lamido of Adamawa, Nde Joshua Y. Dimlong Ngolong Ngas, Dr. Kole Shettima, MacArthur Foundation, Nigeria, Dr. Shettima Ali, Sir Ahmadu Bello Foundation, Mrs. Aisha Oyebode Murtala Mohammed Foundation; Dr. [Mrs.] Nguyan Feese ESSPIN, Nigeria; Hajiya Saudatu Mahdi WRAPA, Abuja; and Sister Kathleen McGarvey Inter-Faith Council, Kaduna.

    Sources said the panel gave an insight into underground moves in the last six months to appease Boko Haram.

    The sources quoted part of the report as follows: “In line with the terms of reference that empowers the Committee on Reconciliation, Healing, and Security to “Dialogue with any identified groups with a view to negotiating the way out of the menace” in the north, that the committee constituted a Sub-Committee that embarked on a visitation to Borno and Yobe states in December 2012 and again in February 2013.

    “During the second visit, which was as a result of an opening for negotiation with members of the sect, Jama’atul-Ahlil Sunnah Lil Da’awati Wal Jihad(Boko Haram), the committee met and had discussions with the Governor of Borno State and Borno Elders Forum. The Committee also visited Yobe State and met with the governor who was ably represented by the Secretary to the State Government (SSG) and also had an interactive session with a cross-section of stakeholders in Damaturu.

    “In Maiduguri, the Committee was able to meet with some people strongly believed to be members of the sect and had very useful discussions with them, which culminated into the offer for ceasefire and subsequent press briefing by the leader, which has given rise to the confidence building that culminated in the visitation by the Chief of Defence Staff and other security chiefs, the Vice-President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and 10 All Progressive Congress (APC) Governors.

    “The meeting was held at the Government House Maiduguri where useful and important critical issues were discussed and at the end, they vowed to cease hostilities and are prepared to surrender themselves and their weapons.

    “They also dissociated themselves from other criminal groups who perpetrate all sorts of atrocities in the name of Boko Haram for various selfish reasons and promised to assist authorities in fishing out all such perpetrators of criminal acts.

    “Having agreed to cease hostilities, they also made certain demands:

    (a) That all detainees against whom a case of criminal involvement is established should be prosecuted by courts of competent jurisdiction. Conversely, all those against whom there is no evidence of criminal involvement should be released unconditionally.

    (b) an area should be designated for all combatants to voluntarily surrender themselves and their weapons without fear of harassment or molestation.

    “This committee should arrange for further visits to Borno and Yobe states to meet with this group and other groups that have now indicated their willingness to come into the peace process. Accordingly, these discussions should be in conjunction with the governments and the Elders Forum of each of the states.

    “This committee recommends that the President visit Borno, Yobe and Kano states and should meet not only governments of these states but also with a cross-section of the elders of the various communities.

    “Consequently, the Committee makes the following recommendations: (i)The President should declare a general and unconditional amnesty;(ii) He should order the immediate release of all detainees against whom there is no established case of criminal involvement, and the immediate prosecution of those against whom there is evidence of criminal involvement before courts of competent jurisdictions; (iii)The protracted court case against the suspected killers of Mohammed Yusuf should be brought to a quick determination; (iv) The Federal Government should consider not only the rehabilitation of combatants but also compensation for those who have suffered in one way or the other during this unfortunate period of our nation’s history as a sign of goodwill and national cohesion; and (v) Some of the Northern Governors should accompany the President on his visit to the states.”

    There were indications last night that Northern governors were working round the clock to ensure a hitch-free trip for Jonathan to Borno and Yobe states.

    A source in the NSGF, who spoke last night, said: “Northern governors are trying their best to ensure that the President’s twin-visit to Borno and Yobe is without any hiccup. The governors have shown keen interest because it is the blueprint prepared by its 41-man committee that the Federal Government is working on.

    “In fact the Northern States Governors Forum Security Committee was the first government team to visit the troubled states.

    “The Security Committee was in Borno and Yobe states in December 2012 two clear months before the visit of the ten governors of the APC while another visit took place in February.”

  • 2015: Can power shift to North?

    2015: Can power shift to North?

    Prominent Northern leaders are agitating for power shift to the North in 2015. But the obstacle to this aspiration is President Goodluck Jonathan’s second term ambition. Now, the scamble for the Presidency is gradually heating up the polity. Can the North achieve power shift in the next general elections? AUGUSTINE AVWODE examines the issue.

     

    As the tempo of political activities for 2015 increases, an obvious question that looms larger than every other one is whether the Northern geo-political zone will produce the President or not. Analysts say one major obstacle standing between the region and the realisation of that dream is whether the incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan, will run or not. He is yet to speak categorically on the matter.

    Last weekend, Niger State Governor Dr Muazu Babangida Aliyu fueled the controversy when he claimed that President Goodluck Jonathan reached an agreement with leaders of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and governors elected on the platform of the party in 2011 to serve only a single term. He considered any talk linking the President with the 2015 presidential election as “speculative”.

    “I recall that at the time he was going to declare for the 2011 election, all the PDP governors were brought together to ensure that we were all in the same frame of mind. And I recall that some of us said that, given the circumstances of the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua and given the PDP zoning arrangement, it was expected that the North was to produce the president for a given number of years.

    “I recall that at that discussion, it was agreed that Jonathan would serve only one term of four years and we all signed the agreement. Even when Jonathan went to Kampala, in Uganda, he also said he was going to serve a single term. For now, President Jonathan has not declared a second term ambition and we must not be speculating based on those who are benefiting from the campaign” he said.

    The question of President Jonathan’s eligibility to run in 2015 has been a subject of legal tussle for some time now. On Wednesday, January 23, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) formally asked a Federal High Court sitting in Abuja to join it as a party in the suit filed by a Port Harcourt-based lawyer and PDP-card carrying member, Henry Amadi, seeking to stop President Goodluck Jonathan from presenting himself as candidate for election to the office of the President in 2015.

    Amadi named President Jonathan and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as the 1st and 2nd defendants respectively in the said suit.

    He is contending that Jonathan is no longer qualified to contest in 2015, arguing that if Jonathan does, he will be spending more than the maximum period of two terms of four years envisaged by the 1999 Constitution as amended.

    But PDP National Legal Adviser Kwon Victor contended that the PDP will be directly affected by the outcome of the suit, taking into consideration the reliefs sought by the plaintiff. In the affidavit in support of the application, Kwon argued that from the reliefs sought by the plaintiff in the suit, PDP’s right to sponsor Jonathan for the office of the President in the 2015 Presidential election is being challenged.

    He said: “This action cannot effectually and completely be determined without joining the applicant herein. By the very tenor of the reliefs sought by the plaintiff, this suit questions the right of the applicant to sponsor one of its members (Jonathan) for the 2015 Presidential election. The applicant herein seeks to protect its interest in the present action by this application.” The application is due to be heard in a week’s time by Justice Adamu Bello”.

    Interestingly, President Jonathan had responded to a similar suit equally seeking to bar him from contesting the same 2015 election on the ground of the number of oath of the same office he had taken. It was filed by another chieftain of the PDP, Mr Cyriacus Njoku, before an Abuja High Court on March 20, 2012, asking it to stop Jonathan from contesting presidential elections in 2015 on the grounds that he was already in his second term in office. Justice Mudashiru Oniyangi had earlier fixed November 13, 2012, to deliver judgment in Njoku’s suit, but subsequently adjourned it indefinitely.

    The sudden demise of President Umaru Yar’Adua is generally seen as having upset the applecart. The late President Yar’Adua, other things being equal, would have run for a second term beginning from 2011 to 2015. But his death barely three years into his first term, led to the emergence of President Jonathan. His move to vie for the position in the 2011 Presidential election led to serious division within the ruling PDP. The schism within the party pitched some of its chieftains of northern extraction, who believed in the inviolate nature of the zoning policy of the party against others who held that ‘circumstantial development’ in the polity had rendered the zoning theory void.

    In a bid to actualise its position, the region chose to go for a consensus candidate from a list of four aspirants to face President Jonathan in the December 2010 Presidential primary. A committee of 17 wise men headed by former Minister of Finance Alhaji Adamu Ciroma picked former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as the consensus candidate of the North after months of consultation and meetings. He was picked ahead of General Ibrahim Babangida, General Aliyu Gusau and former Kwara State Governor Bukola Saraki.

    A statement signed by Ciroma and Abdulkadir Sabo-Bello read in part:

    “We are glad and proud that we have finally arrived at this outcome after several weeks of hard work and wide consultations. We are proud because of the unusual honour and extraordinary privilege given us by the four gentlemen who placed their political destinies in our hands. We are humbled by the strength of their faith. We appreciate their humility and cooperation. We have been reassured by all of them that they will work together to enable Atiku Abubakar clinch their party’s ticket in the presidential primaries.

    “We thank all Nigerians, supporters and critics alike for their views over these past several weeks. While we note these views and respect each one of them, we insist that no individual, organization or society dreaming of success and greatness can achieve these dreams without respect for others and honouring agreements voluntarily entered into. This is especially so where these agreements have been transformed into a binding document, a constitution, which governs the conduct of those who subscribe to it.” President Jonathan defeated the consensus candidate and went on to win the election proper.

    Since then, many northern leaders have expressed the view that the region will without fail produce the President come 2015. But will it be possible, will it not be?

    Speaking to The Nation on Sunday, former Commissioner of Police, Lagos State Command, Mr Abubakar Tsav said for the North to produce the President in 2015 there must be a high level of unity among the political elite of the zone. He said a common undercurrent in the polity is how to make people or the political actors respect or implement the zoning arrangement.

    “What people are saying is that President Goodluck Jonathan is serving a second term now and that if he is allowed to run and wins in 2015, he would be taking the oath of office for the third time, which they say, is against the Constitution. Therefore, for the North to produce the President in 2015, there must be unity among them. It really depends on the level of unity that exists among the political elite of the region. And I think there will be the need for the region to come up with one candidate like a consensus arrangement that they had in December 2010. We cannot blame them for agitating to produce the president because people are trying to make sure that the zoning arrangement that was entered into by the political class is completed or respected”.

    Tsav said that the proposed new party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), will provide an ample opportunity for many political leaders in the zone to realise their dream. He said many people are so disenchanted with what is happening in the PDP that they would not blink an eye before joining it once it comes on stream.

    “The new party has come to provide an alternative platform for many PDP members who are so disenchanted with the way things are going in the party. In particular, they are disenchanted with the idea of taking undue advantage of what happened to President Umaru Yar’Adua; many people are not happy about it and that is why they are waiting on the wings”, he said.

    But a politician, Dr Junaid Mohammed, dismissed the notion of producing a political leader on the basis of the theory of zoning. He described the concept as undemocratic and went to say that those pushing for it are leading Nigeria on the path of former Yugoslavia, saying it could lead to a break up of the country.

    He argued that anyone who is interested in ruling the country should be allowed to run provided the elections would be free and fair.

    “Is zoning arrangement enshrined in the Constitution of Nigeria, Why should the PDP or anybody else be bound by it? Zoning or rotation has never been part of our Constitution. It is at best an understanding within one of the 63 political parties in the country. Many people imagine that the North should be given the Presidency as a right, not on any other factor, it is a misguided conception. As far as I am concerned, I have never believed in zoning or rotation, I have never considered the concept of zoning or rotation democratic,” Junaid said.

    At a point, it was alleged that some northern leaders under the aegis of the Yar’Adua group were meeting regularly with the sole objective of how to thwart alleged President Jonathan’s 2015 ambition. But the allegation was vehemently refuted . One of the leaders of the Yar’Adua group, Senator Adamu Aliero, in a statement said: “We did not meet in Abuja , Katsina or Kaduna as insinuated in the report. We have no reason to conspire or plot against President Goodluck Jonathan who was Vice-President to the late President Yar’Adua.

    “Since Yar’Adua’s death, we have done our best to support the administration of President Goodluck Jonathan and our party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which went ahead to win a re-run poll in Kebbi State.”

    Aliero, a minister of the Federal Capital Territory during Yar’Adua’s administration, stated that the reports were being sponsored by those who were bent on “whipping up sentiments and to create crisis of confidence” between members of the group and the President.

    “There was no any iota of truth in the story, it must have been a mere imagination of the reporter in question. All those mentioned in the report were shocked by the extent to which their integrity was impugned. In the last three years, those of us referred to in the story have not held any meeting over any national issue not to talk of 2015. Instead, we have been going about our activities quietly with utmost decorum”.

    A chieftain of the party from one of the north Central states who craved anonymity revealed that it is almost a foregone conclusion that the President will be seeking the ticket of the PDP in 2015. He alluded to the decision of the party to be joined in the case in court and besides, he referred to the series of inter- regional meetings held in the guise of ‘fostering political understanding’ in recent time. The source said the North will not fail this time around again and they have a big window of opportunity in the newly floated APC and that most of the governors, particularly those who are on their last tenure, will put their feet down this time around.

    “It is apparent that the President will seek the ticket of the PDP in the 2015 Presidential election. What I also know is that the political leaders from the region will not fold their arms and watch things go the way they went last time. Most of the governors are in their last term so they cannot be held to ransom the way they were treated the last time. And if the party feels strongly that the incumbent must return again, then it must be prepared for the backlash,” he said.

    However, Special Adviser to the President on Political Matters Alhaji Ahmed Gulak, has said that nobody can stop President Jonathan from contesting the 2015 election except by the president’s personal volition. He insisted that his first tenure actually started in May 2011 and not 2010 as often claimed by ignorant and mischievous politicians.

    “His tenure would have been abridged if he does not contest in 2015. Yar’Adua was incapacitated and he was naturally allowed to act. The law recognises Jonathan’s first tenure with effect from May 2011 and nothing more.

    “If anyone says Jonathan should not contest in 2015, he would have spent only five years. My position is that if Mr. President is not going to contest, let it be on his own volition but let nobody intimidate him out of office for their selfish political reasons.

    “If the President decides not run in 2015, so be it, but let no individual or group attempt to deny him his constitutional entitlement. It is not going to happen. Neither APC nor Panadol can stop him”. Can the North stop him this time around? Nigerians are waiting.

     

  • The North, Igbos,Jonathan and 2015 duel

    The North, Igbos,Jonathan and 2015 duel

    The shape of things to come

    A  Goodluck  Jonathan presidency beyond 2015 will defer a potential Igbo presidency to 2027 or, more realistically, 2039. It’s blatantly clear that President Jonathan will not handover the presidential seal to an Igbo man either in 2015 or 2019. Anyone who entertains the notion that he is thus disposed is in a delusionary state.

    Rational people who place stock by reality now accept that the upcoming presidential contest will be a straight battle between the Ijaw nation, superbly and preferentially led by President Jonathan, and the North, led by no one at the moment. The authentic power broker, sitting pretty in the middle, is the West, occasionally rancorous but strategically led by Senator Ahmed Bola Tinubu. Who leads the East in this political coliseum?

    President Jonathan will need to sustain the broad coalition that propelled him to victory in 2011 in order to retain the presidency in 2015. This means that he must count on the seven Northern states that he carried in 2011 plus five Western states, five Eastern states to add to his six South-South states to prevail again. The margin for error is razor-thin, given the constitutional requirements. The 19 northern states gave Jonathan over 8.3 million votes or 37.1% of the total votes allocated to him in 2011 (I will return to the comprehensive figures presently).

    This reality, augmented by demography and a Boko Haram-altered realpolitik, exposes President Jonathan’s electoral indebtedness in degrees. The North is first in line for his reciprocal support – a gesture that, some might argue, carries greater credibility than the intellectually feeble and anti-democratic politics of “zoning” or arbitrary power-concession. The debt he owes to the North must be repaid. And it will take precedence over all others. The only question is: which presidential election cycle – 2015 or 2019? Thereafter, both the East and the West will have a competing claim to the presidency. And no thoughtful Nigerian will bet on the East prevailing in that competition, given the customary chaos that often defines its politics. So, it could be a man or woman from the West in 2023 or 2027. It will, then, take a national wave of pity to deliver the presidency to the East in 2039 – in the unlikely event that there occurs a national awakening whereby an Igbo cause is recognised as worthy of national sympathy.

    Consider a different scenario, decoupled from the People’s Democratic Party’s internal arrangements. If the proposed merger of the main opposition parties were to deliver the presidency to the North with a Vice President from the West in 2015, we might, to all intents and purposes, have a president from the West in 2023. This presents a genuinely viable prospect for 2015. CPC or its successor in title will simply need to repeat its solid performance in the twelve states it won during the 2011 presidential cycle. It will need to add Adamawa and Nasarawa states to its column – a task it could easily accomplish in the predicted conditions of 2015. A switch of support by ACN from PDP to CPC will give the alliance 20 states, excluding Edo State, which will most unlikely go against Jonathan, but including Ondo State, which will remain dependably progressive. Again, fortune will befall the West because its political leadership is smart and possesses a first class understanding of the dynamics of Nigerian politics. No sane and fair minded Nigerian will begrudge them.

    The Igbo scenario is rather more complicated, abetted by the indifference of a fiercely self-reliant but disillusioned population which has grown to see all central governments as fundamentally anti-Igbo and its own leaders as merchants of self-interest. Unlike the West, where there exists a viable and confident opposition to the centre, the new conservative politics of the East is generally pro-Jonathan, with a residual sceptical and progressive elements operating at the fringes. To this extent, therefore, its path to the presidency is extremely circumscribed. The All Progressives Grand Alliance could be the vehicle that contains the essential ingredients for a cross-Niger coalition. But APGA controls only two states and is currently under the ruinous grip of its own internal contradictions. Within the PDP itself, it’s inconceivable that any candidate who stands against President Jonathan in a contest for the Igbo delegates votes will fare any better than former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the 2011 presidential primaries – unless there is a radical shift in emphasis to Igbo-specific priorities.

    By the way, I respectfully disagree with those who insist that a General Babangida candidacy during the PDP presidential primaries would have fared better against President Jonathan. They’ve either ignored or underestimated the depth and poisonous quality of the anti-North conspiracy, led shamelessly and aggressively by some northerners, over the weeks and days prior to the Convention of January 13, 2011. The conspirators, particularly many northern governors, wanted something which neither Babangida nor Atiku could give to them. They also had a fear which neither Babangida nor Atiku inspired or threatened. If the animus towards Atiku by certain northern politicians was at all a factor, then, in quantitative terms, it made a difference of perhaps 10 percentage points to the outcome – and this is the most generous assumption. Jonathan would still have prevailed by a little less than the crushing 77% he scored.

     

    Bowling for idealism and democracy

    And this brings me to a personal declaration: I am entitled to speak on this matter not just because I am a bona fide citizen and a progressive Igbo man, but because I have paid my dues and earned the right to take a stand.

    The PDP presidential primaries dawned only 6 months after I took oath of office as a senator representing Ebonyi Central Senatorial District, having spent the previous three and a half years in court battles to claim my mandate – a story for another occasion. I witnessed, from the front-row, how the weeks prior to the primary election exposed the disarray and total absence of a centre of gravity in Igbo politics. To quote the late Bashoroun MKO Abiola, “We are damaged!”

    I have, since June 2010, been constant and consistent in defending President Jonathan’s right to contest the presidential election. Not only has our constitution conferred on him that fundamental right, but the personal sacrifice which he was called upon to make was grossly unfair and unjustified. With what explanation would he return to the Ijaw people? With what logic would he make them see the wisdom in walking away from the presidency – an office to which they may never have another opportunity to lay a claim for at least a generation? And the only lesson he could glean from history was a sobering and dissuasive one: the last man to voluntarily relinquish the top office in Nigeria ended up flirting with poverty and ultimately wound up in jail. When he was rehabilitated and restored to the presidency, he squandered a fortune stolen from public coffers in a failed bid to make himself a life president. No, President Jonathan could not walk away from that office. No honest Nigerian in similar circumstances could. It was hypocritical on the part of those who condemned him for exercising his democratic and constitutional right, regardless of whatever understanding that allegedly existed. As the Roman philosopher, Markus Cicero, wisely observed, an obligation to do the impossible is no obligation at all. I still argue for his right to contest in 2015 and every true democrat should respect his decision in that connection.

    Having defended President Jonathan’s right to contest, however, I found the courage that flowed from my convictions and voted for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar during the 2011 primary election because, firstly, he was astonishingly persuasive through the force of his manifesto and the power of his argument; secondly, that was the only path to a potential Igbo presidency in 2015 or 2019. Atiku scored only 23 delegates votes to Jonathan’s 423 in the South East. Thirdly, I took the view that I was a participant in a process that ought to be defined by democratic principles; motivated by the very same principles that compelled me to defend the President’s right to contest the election. I was therefore resistant to the entrenched PDP tyranny of corralling everyone to play a minor role in the coronation of a candidate. This was not naive. Rather, I took my one step where a million steps needed to be taken. Those who failed, those who were truly naive, were those who, when called to a duty greater than service to self, failed to take their one step. Igbos must recognise that only those who dare to lose greatly can achieve greatly and that power concedes absolutely nothing without a demand.

     

    Planning for oblivion

    The prevailing attraction to readymade power testifies to a growing political culture of self-sabotage, individual greed and the absence of foresight among many in the Igbo community. It’s a clear path to political oblivion.

    The West presents a sharp contrast to this attitude. When a Yoruba man had presidential power thrust on him in 1999, Yoruba people, rightly suspicious of the machinations that brought about that state of affairs, contemptuously delivered a crushing defeat to the PDP in the West, coalesced around the Action for Democracy as a deliberate measure in asserting their regional autonomy and projecting a unique vision of their proud place in Nigeria. When they were duped and almost crippled in 2003, they took the hard knock with exemplary courage, returned to the drawing board and rebounded in a most spectacular fashion in 2011. Thus, Senator Tinubu, the national leader of ACN, emerged as the most significant power broker in this nation since the era of military hegemony. But in order to lead this renaissance, Lagos State paid a particularly heavy political price. The leadership of the West remained resolute, understood the task at hand, and had a winning strategy and foresight. If the West continues in this manner, it will ultimately become the dominant force in Nigerian democratic power play for a generation to come.

     

    A fractured north

    No northern Muslim presidential candidate of any major political party can ever again count on the 19 northern states as a monolithic electoral route to power. Those days are gone. It’s now clear, thanks in equal measure to a massive shift in generational consciousness and the Boko Haram insurgency, that peripheral northern states such as Plateau, Taraba and Benue would almost always consider their positions very carefully. In between these three, Kogi and Kwara states present a required further study and the next presidential election cycle will furnish additional information to reach a more considered conclusion. (But it is instructive to note that in Kogi and Kwara states – 2 of only 4 states under northern Muslim governors won by Jonathan – Jonathan beat Buhari by 72% and 66% of the votes allocated, respectively).

    The flip sides of these three states are best represented by three core northern states such as Kano, Sokoto and Zamfara. During the PDP presidential primaries, Atiku won these states handily. He defeated Jonathan by 252 votes to 60. Jonathan returned the favour in Benue, Plateau and Taraba states where he prevailed by 204 votes to Atiku’s 36. Viewed in the context that the votes from these three states alone accounted for more than 31% of the total votes cast for Atiku in an election involving 36 states and the FCT, it’s easy to appreciate how extraordinary this history in fast motion really is.

    Now, make no mistake, it’s something of a miracle that Atiku scored any votes at all, given the hyper-manipulation and highwire conspiracy that attended the exercise. His performance in the three states in question is arguably a measure of the strength of the cultural and religious affinity he shares with that category of voters. His abysmal performance in states with Christian majorities speaks to the opposite conclusion. Katsina State was an aberration – the exception that proved the rule.

    In the presidential election, President Jonathan won 7 northern states and General Buhari won 12. It’s a matter of little surprise that the states that lined up for Jonathan included Benue, Plateau, Taraba, Kogi and Kwara states. The cases of Adamawa and Nasarawa require a separate examination but the preliminary conclusion is that, in addition to local peculiarities, the outcomes were undoubtedly affected by duplicitous INEC.

    But the broader statistics bear an even more significant revelation. Buhari accumulated some 12.2 million votes but in none of 16 southern states did he score up to 4% of the votes. The singular exception was Oyo State where he scored 11%. This means that even if the North had given him 50 million votes, he would still not have had the mandate of the Nigerian people, either constitutionally or morally. On the other hand, Jonathan was allocated nearly 3.4 million votes in the North-West, over 3.1 million in the North-Central and over 1.8 million in the North-East. The votes allocated to Jonathan in the South are breathtaking: over 6.1 million in the South-South, nearly 5 million in the South-East and 2.8 million in the South-West (Jonathan lost Osun State altogether by 37.14% to Mallam Nuhu Ribadu). And here is the ace: in the 12 northern states which Jonathan lost to Buhari, he still managed to score more than 30% in many of them except in Kano, Borno and Bauchi where he could not break above 18%. This is a powerful lesson to those claiming, rather unwisely, that the North, on itself alone, can win the presidency.

    The converse is, in fact, more probable: if the South could stick together, they could realistically peel away majorities in Plateau, Taraba and Benue states. They would then rely on Kwara, Kaduna, Nasarawa and Kogi for a quarter or more of the votes to meet the constitutional requirements. Central power would then be brokered between the East, West, Middle Belt and South-South. But this is as much a fantasy as it is dangerous. It’s neither a pragmatic outlook nor is it an alliance that would retain sufficient oxygen to thrive and endure. I will leave a full examination of this point for a separate treatise.

    Suffice it to say that when an Ijaw man waltzes into northern Nigeria and plays high politics to this devastating effect, then it calls for a deep reflection and a certain analytical truth in order to decipher the trend and the message, both hidden and obvious.

    Regardless of whatever variables you may wish to take into consideration (including, undoubtedly, rigging, electoral corruption and a disgraceful INEC), the new science of the politics of the North is evolving, and its implications for Nigerian politics are seismic.

     

    The triumph of Ijaw nation

    Since the execution of Ken Saro-Wiwa on 10 November, 1995, the people of the Niger Delta generally, and the Ijaw nation particularly, have upped their game and have played an absolute blinder in the crucible of Nigerian politics. More than any other minority group in historical and contemporary Nigerian politics, they articulated a coherent case of injustice and exploitation that was as persuasive as it was compelling. Consequently, they have, unequivocally, emerged as the supreme advocates for minority rights. Admittedly, bullets and bombs might have aided the cause but those were, arguably, the desperate measures that arose from desperate circumstances.

    Ambitious for their people, the vanguard of Ijaw nation saw their moment and seized it with excellent advocacy of group interest. The Niger Delta political movement has expanded the democratic discourse and enhanced its space in Nigeria. Their demands, be it in connection with resource control or control of the prime political office in the land, have always appeared legitimate and just. Whether their tone was strident or measured, they have had a consistent and unified message. Their plights and their aspirations were heard in foreign capitals across the globe. Occasionally, their causes were even adjudicated at the highest levels of the United States’ judicature, with unprecedented success. Their political operation was so smooth it almost legitimised the violent militant component.

     

    No measure for measure

    The Ijaw people are unrelenting. Their current sleek, forceful and cacophonous “operation 2015” has driven some senior northern politicians to distraction, some to secret endorsement of the President’s 2015 ambition from far away foreign capitals, and the Igbos to acquiescent silence. Many Nigerians have been utterly astonished by some of the public utterances coming from respected figures from northern Nigeria. In reacting to the notorious meeting in Lagos by Ijaw people to endorse President Jonathan for 2015, a senior northern politician quipped: “Who has the strength to clinch power if not the north…?” Such an outburst telegraphs precisely the sort of arrogance that infuriates the rest of greater Nigeria. Notwithstanding that this statement was made by a retired military officer, betraying the imperialistic instincts of his generation, it echoes a pattern of thought that constitutes an impediment to the North regaining the full confidence of Nigerians, south of the Niger.

    Southern progressives who are rooting for the socio-political success of a new North want to see a sharp-edged leadership and a thoroughly articulated strategy to lift this benighted nation and the North with it. Aggressive rhetoric or playing the bluff and counter-bluff game will not cut muster. This Federal Republic is not going to break-up any time soon, or any time at all. Threats, belligerence, disrespectful or dismissive language or pinning for the resurrection of dead leaders merely betray the instincts we need to transcend. The old simple ways must yield to the sophisticated complexities of today. These are serious times ovulating serious issues that require serious people’s attention – and the North has produced some of the sharpest political minds in our history.

    If there is any redeeming counter-argument here, however, it is to the effect that these men are to be applauded for exposing the courage of their convictions. They are preferable to the cloak-and-dagger types, operating in silhouettes, pledging unalloyed support in English to Jonathan but condemning him behind his back in Hausa. This is the dark season of the long knives. Only courageous men can play in the open.

    The fortunes of the North are undergoing the severest retrenchment since the constitutional conference of 1957. Poverty and general degradation have taken a stranglehold. Politically, depending on how its main actors play the impending political innings, the North stands a realistic chance of being struck out of the park for more than a generation. Between the hammer of Boko Haram and the anvil of mounting anti-North prejudice, our brethren on the Sahelian fringe may very well crack. Such an outcome would not be a northern disaster; it would be a national catastrophe.

    Politically, there is a way out and a path forward. Let the East and the North collaborate and draw up a solid national plan for peace, development and aggressive anti-corruption crusade, articulated with patriotic zeal, carrying a persuasive force and passion for a united Nigeria steeped in social justice. This, quite frankly, is the urgent prerogative of the political moment for both regions. The organising principle of such a plan must not be founded solely on the capture of power. It must be headlined and concluded with a revolutionary manifesto for Nigeria and Nigerians.

     

    Friendship forged in blood

    No tribe in Nigeria has a better, albeit incomplete, knowledge of the people of northern Nigeria than do the Igbo tribe. I have travelled extensively and lived nomadically in northern Nigeria and, to my amazement, found Igbo people in their droves in the most unlikely nooks and remotest crannies of the region. Many had become acculturated, even while retaining their fundamental Christian indoctrination. Among the Kanuris of Borno State, I found the most honourable, decent, generous, spiritually devoted and patriotic Nigerians. And this is precisely why the Boko Haram phenomenon, with its roots in this noble warrior land of the Kanem, is utterly bewildering.

    The Igbos must not only raise their collective voices but must be at the forefront in condemning the atrocities of Boko Haram; but we must do so without holding the generality of northern Muslims liable for the excesses of a small criminal bunch. Igbos have, predictably, suffered immense losses. But, as the violence soars, as the casket counts escalate and a repetition of the ugly history of abandoned property looms, let us remain constant in our covenant with the Lord. This moment calls for the strength of our example. Let us respond by channelling the flow of our kin’s blood to a purpose greater than ourselves, greater than retribution and, certainly, greater than the warped aspirations of those who seek to murder us.

    To those baying for vengeance, let’s recommend recourse to their Bibles. Let us not listen to those who think we ought to be governed by lust for bloody revenge, and who believe this to be a sign of strength. We must remember that nothing is so praiseworthy, nor so clearly shows a great and noble soul, as clemency and readiness to forgive. Therefore, even as they have maimed our hearts, let us heal theirs’ and keep them whole for God’s immutable justice and vengeance. He will execute His anger with great rebuke, they will reap His grapes of wrath, and they will know that He is the Lord when He shall lay the fury of His judgment upon them. It’s our duty to ensure that the New Testament does not fall silent in this time of strife.

    For it has become an open season on northern Nigerian Muslims these days. An indiscriminate wave of anti-North prejudice has seized the air. To read or listen to some of the hateful slurs spewed against northern Nigerian Muslims is to witness a diminution of one’s very own humanity. It’s imperative that we confront and prevail against the nihilistic terrorist barbarians. But it’s even more important that we remain healed and whole as a nation afterwards.

    The North/East political friendship was forged in pursuit of enlightened self-interest and in the crimson tide of blood. Recall the late 1950s, the First Republic and, more consequentially, the momentous events of 1978, eight short years following the end of the Civil War and not that long after the pogrom, when these patriots came together and conspired to take the helm of democratic restoration on October 1, 1979. And it is the very constituent nature of that administration that made possible the amnesty granted to Dim Odumegwu Ojukwu in 1982, to the effusive ecstasy of the Igbos at that time. Of course, legitimate criticisms of the Shagari-Ekwueme administration abound, and I take those into full account. I will not be detained by the conspiracy theory which speculates that the 1983 coup d’état was executed by northern military leaders principally to avert the possibility of an Igbo man’s ascent to the presidency on October 1, 1987.

    It is time to embark on the great and purposeful task of reconstructing that friendship. The stakes are high for both sides. It’s the only alliance that has the real possibility of delivering an Igbo presidency.

    The East gave President Jonathan nearly five million votes in the last presidential election or 22.23% of the 22,495,187 votes recorded for him. The votes of dispersed Igbo people are non-ascertainable. This is nearly double the effort of the West. The President might have won without carrying the West but, certainly, not without the East. Right now, Igbos have as powerful a political bargaining tool as they have had at any point since the advent of the fourth republic. It’s time to play that joker. Smartly.

     

    Conclusion

    In the broad sweep of history, 2015 would be seen as the year that defined the politics of modern Nigeria and its democracy for the next half century. Those who caution that this is not the appropriate time to discuss the politics of 2015 are being disingenuous. Yes, it is, perhaps, not the time to launch candidacies or open campaign offices, but it sure as hell is the time to engage on the potential dynamics of 2015 – not the apocalyptic year of disintegration but the year for the realisation or strengthening of democratic solidarities and the reciprocity principle.

    Let us engage. East and North. If we struggled and failed, history’s verdict would be less than harsh. After all, if President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua had lived, he would right now be in the second year of the second tenure of his presidency which would probably have given way to a James Ibori presidency in 2015. That in turn would have terminated in 2023, leading to another northern presidency all the way to 2031. But the Igbo marginalisation is not, apparently, ordained by God. The fault, Ndigbo, is not in our stars….

     

     

    Senator Emmanuel Onwe is the Director of Operations, National and Diaspora, Njiko Igbo dronwe67@rocketmail.com

     

  • On insecurity in the North

    On insecurity in the North

    Nigeria and its northern states have got an issue in their hands. In the last three years or so the north has been burning. There is bombing in the streets and slums of Maiduguri, Kano, Yobe, Bauchi, Kaduna, Adamawa and on the plateau.

    There are prison breaks in Bauchi, Maiduguri, Kogi etc. There are killings in police stations, schools, in the hospitals, in churches and even in mosques of rival Islamic clerics. The air is permeated with the sounds of improvised explosive devices and punctuated with trigger-happy and rag-tag insurgents baying for blood of the innocent and helpless masses. There is maiming, killing and harassment with impunity in the north. The north, it seems is at war with itself.

    This past three years the north has witnessed massive bloodshed. Boko Haram has killed more than 3000, bombed and burnt more than 150 churches and properties worth billions of naira have gone down the drain. This insurgency has delivered a punch that has hit the economy and social environment of the north and its fledging credibility of hospitality which is now politically and religiously wounded. This shows how politically inept the so called “northern leaders and elder statesmen” are. As this wind of insecurity blows across the north and continues to gather momentum – and its political, economic and cultural fortune begins to dwindle by the day- the sign of a failed political and religious leadership pollutes and dents the firmament of the legacy of the Ahmadu Bellos, the Tafawa Balewas and the Aminu Kanos.

    The northern elites and political leaders took the easy path; follow the political sentiment instead of showing the way of conflict resolution and religious harmony. In today’s north there is something cowardly about its leaders’ handling of the Boko Haram imbroglio; they take a French leave and look the other way when security fails. But the elites did just this, they abdicated their responsibilities by refusing to be arrow-head of cohesion when it was needed; the result of their inaction is the insecurity the north is harvesting. Think of the bombing, think of the absolute anarchy, think of the people at the mercy of joint military tasked force (JTF) and the insurgent and think of the failing northern Nigeria. Yes, the zone that cannot maintain law and order, a north that cannot enforce peace and protect lives, a north that can be overpowered and overwhelmed by a sect brandishing “jihadism” and “IEDS”, a north that appeases politicians and religious extremists at the expense of the masses.

    This insecurity in the north is sad and dangerous for Nigeria. But it’s worse and a tragic event for the north and families of those who died for no good reason.

    • Moses Sunday Ajehson

    Kubwa, Abuja.

     

  • North ‘ll embrace APC

    North ‘ll embrace APC

    The Nasarawa State chairman of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Mr. Bashir Jabiru, has said that the North will prefer the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the next general elections. He said the new party will dislodge the PDP, urging members to gird their loins.

    Jabiru said the excitement that greeted the birth of the ACP showed that Nigerians were tired of the PDP administration.

    He said the PDP government has become the greatest corrupter of society, stressing that theft and graft have continued unabated.

    Jabiru praised the efforts of the leadership of the four major political parties, which formed APC, for their courage, selfless service and foresight, assuring that the party will liberate Nigeria.

    The politician, who spoke on phone with our correspondent, said APC would provide credible leadership worthy of pride.

    Jamiru said that the manifesto of the party would soon be unveiled by the alliance leaders. He said the manifesto would reflect the progressive programmes for a rescue mission.

    Jabiru said APC would resolve unemployment, fight the infrastructure battle, improve education, defend the health sector and fight corruption.

    His words: “I want to commend the effort of the national leaders of the ACN, CPC, APGA and ANPP for seeing the need to set this nation free from the bondage of the PDP. It is now that we can now move forward and chase the PDP out of the Aso Villa in 2015.

    “PDP is using propaganda and they have nothing to offer this great nation and our coming together shows that people are no more comfortable with the present administration, which is full of corruption.

    “But, with the emergence of APC, our people should be assured that the party will take the nation to the destination by the time we assume office in 2015.

    “The good work our governor, Alhaji Al-makura, is doing here in Nasarawa State andwhat the governors of our party are doing in the Southwest and what Oshiomhole is doing in Edo, I am sure people have seen the progressiveness in the APC and they will be happy to give PDP a red card”.