The entry of Victor Ochei, the former Speaker of the Delta State House of Assembly into the Delta North 2015 senatorial race on the platform of Accord Party (AP) is said to be giving his PDP counterpart, Peter Nwaoboshi, sleepless nights.
Unconfirmed speculations have it that the aspiration of Ochei, who is a three-term lawmaker in the House of Assembly, is being backed by major stakeholders within and outside the PDP, his former party.
Is Hon. Rose Oko dead? If she is not dead, then where is she? Is she seriously ill as being rumoured? If yes, then what exactly is ailing her? Is her ailment impairing her participation in the electioneering process? Indeed, was it her illness that prevented her presence all through the internal nomination process of the PDP? If she was not present, how was it possible for her to emerge victorious in the party primaries? Is her continuous absence injurious to the chances of the PDP in the forthcoming senatorial elections in the Cross River North Senatorial District? If yes, what has and is the party in the state doing to forestall any such mishap? Or is Oko so popular that she can re-enact the Theodore Orji miracle in Cross River State? Must Oko’s name be on the ballot even in controversy so rife and fatal? So many questions.
Without a shred of doubt, Cross River State is set to witness one of its most contested general elections in its history. It may not rank in scale to the elections of 1999 where the spoils of office where shared almost equally in the House of Assembly between the then APP and PDP. The excitement in the air is not borne of the same situation. Then, the two parties where relatively new. The dramatis persona even where popular, had to contend with defining and evolving the template to sell their parties and even themselves. Even then, the apathy of the people towards the 1999 elections also helped in no small measure to whittle the field, making it relatively easier for political office seekers to score the bulls-eye.
A lot has changed since then. PDP, through the tenure of Donald Duke to Imoke, had deliberately or otherwise, emerged as the only cock to crow. In 2011, they captured 24 House of Assembly seats out of 25; five House of Representatives seats and all the senatorial seats, including the much coveted Governor’s Lodge.
Even though the Action Congress (AC), as it was known then, was new, it was clear that it was to be a taproot for the alternate voice. Today, the AC with a string of other parties has metamorphosed into the All Progressive Congress (APC). Whereas it may not have been clear to the uninitiated, the truth was always there that upheaval in the national space was to take its toil in the states and vice versa. The more the APC waxed strong at the national, the more flak the PDP took both at the centre and in the states.
But it didn’t have to be so if the party had insisted on doing the right thing both at the centre and in the states. Senator Victor NdomaEgba finger-points the new strength of opposition coming from short-changed PDP members. “We must go right back to the fundamentals and bring back aggrieved members back to the fold “.
It is almost impossible to bring back Dr. Julius Okpotu to the PDP. Okpotu, a PDP decampee, is the Labour Party candidate for the Northern Senatorial District. He served as commissioner in the state planning commission and also in the state executive council. Okpotu jumped ship after suffering deprivations flowing from his intention to contest the gubernatorial seat in the state under PDP. Senator Bassey Otu, a serving PDP senator, cross carpeted to the LP when his ambition was also truncated ostensibly on the directives of Governor Imoke. Indeed, there are more of such PDP decampees battling their former ‘family members’ on many fronts, on different platforms.
Of significance however is the case of the northern senatorial district where Okpotu is set to do battle with the mythical Rose Oko. The questions on how Oko had been winning primaries and general elections even as recent as 2011 are legion. But the din this time may signal not only hernuncdimitis but even that of the PDP. That is why the jury is out on Oko.
Johnson Agba Johnson of the Northern Senatorial District elders said recently, “We have come to a stage where we all have to speak up. In 2011 election, when Dr. Oko won PDP primaries into the House of Representatives for Ogoja/Yala, she was on sick bed and later won in the general elections; last December again, she still won from sick bed against all protestations from party members. But the problem is not winning by proxy, but the outright impunity by the party leadership and the fate of our daughter who is critically ill and is receiving treatment abroad. She has been absent in all party rallies and meetings held so far in the northern district, thereby creating room for rumour mongers. We demand that the party produces her within the next 24 hours or that she be replaced by another candidate as the constitution gives room for such in the case of death or if a candidate is incapacitated.”
On his part, Comrade Emmanuel AgbeAbeng is concerned that other parties have made political gain from not only the processes that threw up Oko but also her rumoured death. “Recently, we heard rumour that madam had died and those are some concerns which the opposition is exploiting very well to ensure we don’t win the pending elections in the zone. So, it is high time the party leadership came up with alternatives rather than playing hide and seek game with us” he said.
Abeng didn’t stop there.”Oko’s case is not how candidates emerge in this modern democracy. Therefore, we insist the party write to INEC explaining our peculiar situation and the circumstances so that she should be replaced on health grounds as anything short of that would not be acceptable by the voters in the zone,” he added.
Indeed, imposition of candidates from the leadership of the PDP in Cross River may sound the death knell for the party in the forthcoming elections. A significant population of contestants across party divides is former PDP members. This is primarily because primaries where skewed against them in all or most cases by the powers that be. But in all of that, the rumble in the Northern Senatorial District catches the eye in its sheer audacity, where brazen impudence is being made to smell like a Rose.
The irony of the situation is that the north boasts of an array of notable and tested politicians on the platform of the PDP, who can wear the mantle of battle at the drop of a hat. Peter Ojie, Larry Odey, Mark Ukpo and Ugba Murphy are some alternatives. That the party insists on Oko, has been the reason for the massive protest by party faithful across the senatorial district.
Again, Senator NdomaEgba, himself a victim, offers an insight.”The first thing I noticed after the primaries was a lot of traffic outside PDP to the APC without a corresponding traffic into the PDP. Where the process is transparent, people are bound to accept the result, but where it is not, it will bring dissent and resentments. So our challenge is to make sure the parties enjoy internal democracy.”
Interestingly, the national chairman of the PDP, Mallam Adamu Muazu agrees completely with the view above.
It may be late in the day for the PDP to do anything or reverse the trend in other Cross River State districts, but it still can do the needful in the Northern Senatorial District, unless of course, Rose Oko is irreplaceable or a sure recipe for victory even in absentia. There is however a truth PDP should take in her strides to perfidy; 2015 is not 2011.
In less than three weeks Nigerians will go to the polls to elect a new president. As the race becomes more intense a complex mix of factors in different states would shape the eventual outcome. In this piece, Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation, Sam Egburonu, Associate Editor, Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor and Sunday Oguntola, present a status report as the race enters the home stretch.
More than at any other period in the history of the Fourth Republic, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is on the edge. It is fighting tooth and nail to cling to power in a tight race. There’s no one better qualified to confirm this than National Security Adviser (NSA), Col. Sambo Dasuki (retd), who said in London on Thursday that “the emergence of a seemingly viable opposition, as well as the closeness of the race is a clear demonstration of our maturing democracy…”
Investigations by our reporters in various states of the federation indicate that the votes haul from three zones in the North as well as the outcome in the South-West could be pivotal determining the race. In the South-South-South and South-East, the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan retains strong support. However, in-fighting in the PDP in Ebonyi, Imo, Akwa Ibom and even in the president’s home state, Bayelsa, could lead to a significant drop in his share of votes cast.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd) is expectedly to perform markedly better in aforementioned two zones than he did in 2011 – benefitting from the bitter fallout of the PDP squabbles and the stronger platform on which he’s running this time around.
If the elections were held today, these are the projected outcome as put together by our editorial team tracking the contest from state to state.
KEBBI
The PDP has lost more ground to the opposition in the last three weeks. Just a few days ago, a member of the PDP Board of Trustees, Sen. Mohammed Magoro, defected to APC in looks like a political development that has broken the camel’s back.
The tumultuous crowd which heralded Buhari’s visit to Birnin Kebbi signposts an advantage for APC. With ex-Governor Adamu Aliero and other stalwarts of PDP now in APC, a 60-40 victory might be imminent for the opposition in Kebbi.
Verdict: Buhari
NIGER
In spite of the drafting of Senate President, David Mark, Plateau State Governor Jonah Jang and Federal Capital Territory Minister, Sen. Bala Mohammed to lend a helping hand to the embattled Governor Babangida Aliyu of Niger State, things are falling apart for PDP in the state.
The climax of PDP’s misfortunes was the defection of Deputy Governor Ahmed Musa Ibeto to APC with 300 others. The defection suggested an undertone of backing by some kingmakers in the state because it came shortly after ex-President Ibrahim Babangida declared support for Buhari.
Apparently hitting back at one of the godfathers, an angry Governor Aliyu said: “They said I went to IBB over those who defected. I have passed the stage of begging anybody…” A 70-30 race advantage for APC is likely here.
Verdict: Buhari
KWARA
The situation of PDP in Kwara State has reached a pathetic stage that about N80million was allegedly budgeted to hire crowd to welcome Jonathan to the state. Jolted by the substantial loss of grip by the party, the new financier of PDP in the state, Hajiya Bola Shagaya and the Minister of National Planning, Dr. Suleiman Olanrewaju Abubakar, had to relocate to Ilorin to start mobilizing the crowd.
Shagaya’s politics and the poor choice of candidates at all levels by the party for the February poll has made it an easy ride for APC so far. In fact, some forces in the Presidency are already reaching out to Kwara’s games master, ex-Governor Bukola Saraki to bend a bit and concede 25 per cent of the total votes in the state to PDP during the presidential election on February 14. It is 80-20 percent in favour of APC in Kwara.
Verdict: Buhari
BAUCHI
The booing and jeering at the PDP rally on Thursday in Bauchi State showed disenchantment with the ruling party in the state. The administration of Governor Isa Yuguda is said to be owing teachers and civil servants arrears of salaries leading to protest and stoning of the presidential convoy.
The cold war between PDP leaders in the state also led to the heckling of the FCT Minister, Bala Mohammed at the presidential rally. Since the PDP did not win the state in 2011, the political dynamics are yet to change – notwithstanding the fact that the national chairman of the ruling party, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, hails from the state. The odds point to an 80-20 per cent vote split in favour of APC.
Verdict: Buhari
SOKOTO
The President and members of his campaign council needed no soothsayer during the week to read the handwriting on the wall that the defection of ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa had not added much electoral value to the chances of PDP.
The likely protest votes by PDP members in the state who are still angry over the outcome of governorship primaries, points to a solidified advantage for APC. Unless the Deputy Governor, Mukhtar Shagari and his faction are appeased, the contest could turn out to be 75-25 in favour of APC.
Verdict: Buhari
KOGI
The alleged poor or slow performance of Governor Idris Wada (occasioned by the indebtedness of ex-Governor Ibrahim Idris administration) has created disenchantment with PDP in the state because of salary arrears. But the ruling party is relying on its usual winning formula of ethnic and religious politics, especially in Kogi East where the Director-General of Jonathan campaign council, Dr.
Ahmadu Ali comes from.
The President realized Wada’s challenges and he has decided to mobilize more forces and loyalists like Sen. Smart Adeyemi, Minister of Justice and Attorney-General of the Federation, Mr. Mohammed Bello Adoke (SAN), oil magnate Jide Omokore among others to secure Kogi Central and Kogi West districts. A 55-45 per cent victory is likely for PDP in Kogi State.
Verdict: Jonathan
TARABA
The recent reconciliation of warring PDP leaders and the adoption of a power-sharing formula which resulted in a no-victor, no-vanquished resolution has foreclosed any significant inroad for APC presidential candidate, Buhari who has always lost in the state.
The larger-than-life profile of former Minister of Defence, Gen. Theophilus Danjuma (retd), the minority politics in the North, ethnic sentiments against the Hausa-Fulani and religious considerations have all combined to weigh against the APC. A 75-25 per cent race to the advantage of PDP is expected here.
Verdict: Jonathan
KADUNA
Unlike the case between 1999 and 2007, the PDP is battling for survival in Kaduna State to sustain the ‘victory’ it narrowly claimed in 2011 when it took advantage of post-election violence. The persistent insurgency in Southern Kaduna has made the ruling party lose the sympathy of minorities in the state.
Buhari’s recent campaign here was a showstopper. Kaduna is also his base as well as home state of Vice-President Namadi Sambo. The state government is currently controlled by PDP. In 2011, Buhari polled 1, 334, 244 votes to narrowly defeat Jonathan who scored 1,190, 179 votes. APC may win again with a slight margin.
Verdict: Battleground
PLATEAU
Plateau is one state to watch in the light of unfolding twists and turns by key political actors. A former Deputy Governor of the state, Paullen Tallen, Senator John Damboyi, defected to APC with some PDP stalwarts in protest against the outcome of the governorship primaries. Though APC’s mileage might improve, the equation may still favour PDP because of ethnic and religious politics.
Being a core Middle Belt state, the people of Plateau State are unlikely to vote for an Hausa-Fulani man like Buhari. This is almost like hereditary political culture here. The success of the ongoing reconciliation of aggrieved PDP members is reuniting the ruling party in the state. A 70-30 percent split in favour of PDP is predicted.
Verdict: Jonathan
ZAMFARA
The failed bid of PDP for ex-Governor Sani Yerima has proved to be the party’s albatross in Zamafara State where the opposition is still waxing stronger since 1999. Though PDP is trying to improve its electoral fortunes, the APC may retain the state in 80-20 per cent judging by response to the campaign trains of PDP and APC.
The reduced involvement of the Minister of Defence, Gen. Aliyu Gusau (retd) in the politics of the state has sustained Yerima’s political grip on Zamfara.
Verdict: Buhari
ADAMAWA
The emergence of a former Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, as the party’s governorship candidate has polarized and decimated PDP in the state. To pave the way for Ribadu, the state PDP Executive Committee led by Joel Madaki was dissolved.
Other stakeholders have, however, ganged up to work against PDP. The impending loss of the state by PDP made Jonathan’s godfather, Chief Edwin Clark, to openly attack the National Chairman of the party, Adamu Muazu, last Saturday.
Realizing that the political calculation was not adding up for PDP, the Jonathan has ordered the reinstatement of the suspended State Executive Committee to embark on a reconciliation programme. But it might be too late because most PDP heavyweights have either joined APC or the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM).
This was why Governor Bala Ngilari called for the postponement of the poll in Adamawa State to enable PDP put its house in order. If the ongoing reconciliation in succeeds, it might be 55-45 split in favour of APC. Otherwise, the PDP might not get up to 15 per cent of the votes because Adamawa people are really angry with the party.
Verdict: Battleground
BENUE
It is still too close a match in Benue State between the PDP and APC. For the second time since 1999, the ruling party is struggling to maintain its hold on the state. The defection of PDP bigwigs like ex-Minister Samuel Ortom and Chief Barnabas Gemade, the crisis between Governor Gabriel Suswam and workers, and opposition to imposition of the governorship candidate have made the task difficult for the President of the Senate, David Mark, who is the party’s leader in the state. The race is certainly 50-50 because APC may clinch two senatorial tickets in the state.
Verdict: Too close to call
GOMBE
The incessant clampdown on key opposition figures and the plot to arrest them en masse before the February elections points to some panic on the part of the ruling PDP. The tense atmosphere got to a level that the APC National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun petitioned President Goodluck Jonathan on how the state government was planning to implicate the state’s political godfather, ex-Governor Danjuma Goje. The APC is certainly creating campaign waves in the state and may clinch the state in a 60-40 per cent split.
Verdict: Buhari
JIGAWA
Going by his continuous lambasting of opposition leaders, Governor Sule Lamido still has his heart in PDP although he may not have faith in the presidential candidate of the party. Until the PDP campaign train hit the North-West, he had basically stood aloof as if he was oblivious of the stakes.
The scenario may be 80-20 in favour of APC during the presidential election because the APC candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari has always won Jigawa with or without Lamido’s political structure. But in other stanzas of the February poll, which are local affairs, PDP may win 70-30 per cent.
Verdict: Buhari
KATSINA
This is Buhari’s home state and an APC stronghold. Were it not for disagreement among the leaders of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the PDP would have lost in 2011. With its house in order this time around, the opposition is very strong in the state because virtually all the leaders wielding political influence in the state are in support of the APC. Governor Ibrahim Shema is taking everything in his strides to manage the volatile political situation in the state which had been fueled by the PDP’s mismanagement of Buhari’s WASC results. The campaign so far has shown an 80-20 percent outlook in favour of the general.
Verdict: Buhari
KANO
The unprecedented crowd which welcomed the APC campaign council to Kano during the week was reminiscent of Second Republic politics. It sent jitters through the PDP and the Presidency which tried to make up with another rally to prove that it has earned some mileage too.
The defection of the Minister of Education, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, has added much value to the rating of PDP but it is insignificant to dislodge APC from the state. Shekarau appears to be a lone ranger. A 70-30 per cent performance is expected to the credit of APC. So, the president may get the mandatory 25 per cent in Kano State if the party tries to close its divided ranks before the poll.
Verdict: Buhari
BORNO
This is a natural terrain of the opposition even though the Boko Haram insurgency has not allowed parties to embark on aggressive campaigning. Since the First Republic, no ruling party including the PDP, has been able to win the state. This is rooted in cultural history and political belief not to play second fiddle to the Hausa-Fulani oligarchy.
The Boko Haram insurgency has forced the people of the state to yearn for change and oppose PDP. Though a former Governor of the state, Sen. Modu Ali Sheriff defected from APC to PDP, his new party surprisingly dropped him as one of its senatorial candidates.
The twist may cause more headaches for PDP in the state. The permutations point to an 80-20 percent APC victory. The decision of the military to launch a full-scale war in the North-East against Boko Haram any moment from now is seen as a ploy to destabilize Adamawa, Borno and Yobe – making conditions for free and fair voting virtually impossible.
Verdict: Buhari
YOBE
Like Borno, the state remains largely a stronghold of the APC having been in opposition since 1999. A former governor of the state, Sen. Bukar Abba Ibrahim and other leaders have remained the backbone of the APC in the state and their structure in the last 16 years has proved hard to dismantle.
But the choice of a former Minister of Police Affairs, Adamu Maina Waziri (who is contesting for the office for the fourth time) as the PDP governorship candidate, may make it a walkover for APC. Barring any improvement by PDP on its past records, the contest can be 70-30 to the credit of APC. But APC leaders have to be circumspect because of the new initiative by the military to launch a massive campaign against Boko Haram insurgents which may displace many eligible voters.
Verdict: Buhari
NASARAWA
The internal crisis within the PDP over governorship primaries has led to the defection of ex-Minister Labaran Maku to the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) which poses no threat to the ruling APC. The implication is that the votes of Eggon people, who are desperate to rule the state, will be split between PDP and APGA leaving other ethnic groups to queue behind the opposition coalition, APC which is doing well in the state.
The ill-fated impeachment plot against Governor Tanko Al-Makura by PDP/ presidency and the purported death of Baba Alakyo ( the spiritual leader of the Eggon), and the defection of a former Secretary of the Board of Trustees of the PDP, ex-Governor Abdullahi Adamu, have compounded the electoral woes of the PDP in the state. A 70-30per cent rating in favour of APC is likely.
Verdict: Buhari
FCT
The PDP is presently engaged in marathon and hectic campaign to the nooks and crannies of the Federal Capital Territory. The opposition needs to rev up its strategy instead of taking things for granted that people desire change. It is presently a 60-40 percent in favour of PDP in the FCT. APC can fill up the gap with aggressive outreach before the poll because the opposition used to be stronger in Kuje and Kwali Districts unlike the case now.
Verdict: Jonathan
AKWA IBOM
Akwa Ibom State has always been a stronghold of the PDP. But the state is no longer firmly in the hands of the ruling party. The APC) has swelled its ranks with defectors from PDP. Its governorship candidate, Umana Umana, is the state’s erstwhile Secretary to the State Government (SSG). More and more people are attending his campaigns. There are also 22 aggrieved PDP governorship aspirants that have vowed to be fun spoilers for the party.
However, zonal solidarity with Jonathan as well as well as an incumbent governor with a heavy war chest would tilt the state in the president’s favour.
Verdict: Jonathan
CROSS RIVER
Had things turned out the way the opposition wanted, there might have been slim hope of a Buhari upset in Cross River. And really things were moving into that direction. The PDP congresses were strongly disputed. It took massive intervention from the Central Working Committee (CWC) of the party to calm frayed nerves.
The governorship primary was another bumpy ride. It pitched long-time allies such as Governor Liyel Imoke and his predecessor, Donald Duke, against themselves. The Senate Majority Leader, Victor Ndoma-Egba, was also on a collision course with the governor.
Leading aspirants like Mr. Jeddy Agba, were disqualified from the contest, leaving the emergence of Senator Ben Ayade, a mere formality. But the PDP has managed to put its house in order, or so it seems. Agba, who was expected to contest on an alternative platform, has dropped the ambition, vowing to support the PDP and Ayade. President Jonathan is expected to win well in the state.
Verdict: Jonathan
RIVERS
With 2,537,590 registered voters, Rivers State has the highest voting population in the South-South region. Under normal circumstances, Jonathan would have gone to bed fully assured he had those votes in his kitty. But not anymore. Things have changed drastically since Governor Rotimi Amaechi led supporters to join the APC.
The choice of Dakuru Peterside as APC’s governorship candidate has improved the party’s fortunes in Rivers, eroding the massive support base of the President in his wife’s home state.
But Jonathan’s chances cannot be just written off yet in the state. He has foot soldiers such as PDP’s governorship candidate, Nyesom Wike, on ground. His wife’s kinsmen will also most certainly prefer him to a northerner, all things being equal.
The equations, however, seem to favour Buhari, who has wisely chosen Amaechi as Director General of his campaign. Amaechi has to deliver to justify the confidence reposed in him. This is why the state will be a battleground for the leading presidential hopefuls.
Verdict: Battleground
BAYELSA
Though things are not at ease with the PDP in Bayelsa State, it is almost taken that President Jonathan will carry his home state. Even if every other states turn against the President, his kinsmen are certain to stick with him, come rain or sunshine.
Governor Seriake Dickson is reportedly uncomfortable with Jonathan who believed to be indisposed to the governor’s reelection bid in 2016. The governor has flushed out elements with ties to Jonathan and his wife from his cabinet. He has also moved against activities of the Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN), the umbrella organisation for Jonathan’s reelection campaign in the state.
Relations between the governor and presidency are at the lowest ebb but they are not expected to have any direct bearing on the voting pattern next month. The voters will certainly pick the son of the soil, Jonathan, over every other person, performance or non-performance.
The only snag is that the President’s home state only boasts 610,373 voters. Even if all of them get to vote, they are not likely to have significant impact in the general direction of the poll.
Verdict: Jonathan
DELTA
Ethnic and religious factors could work against any Buhari upset in the state but they also threaten to trim the margin of any PDP victory here. Jonathan will have to stave off mounting opposition against him in the state. The Itsekiri, for exemaple, are angry that the inauguration of the Export Processing Zone (EPZ) was unceremoniously abandoned by the president under pressure from former militant leader, Chief Government ‘Tompolo’ Ekpemupolo.
There is also the shoddy handling of the governorship primaries. Even though many believe Senator Ifeanyi Okowo won fair and square, his emergence came at the expense of entrenched interests in the state. The Urhobos are aggrieved the governorship slot was not ceded to them, but a delegation of the Urhobo Progressive Union (UPU) pledged support for Jonathan during a recent Aso Villa visit.
Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan is also said not to be a happy man. He was forced to drop his senatorial ambition for the return of James Manger, an Ijaw man, said to have the backing of Jonathan. His preferred successor, John Obuh, also lost the governorship slot, coming a distant third.
Like Uduaghan, many PDP members in Delta are disgruntled. But many will still root for Jonathan but may play the spoilers in the gubernatorial poll. Buhari would benefit from some protest votes to secure the 25% he needs.
Verdict: Jonathan
EDO
With the APC firmly in control of the state, analysts are predicting its presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, might record an upset in Edo.
This optimism is not out of place. Governor Adams Oshiomhole has proven to be in control of the state apparatus. His infrastructural development of the state has won many hearts. The PDP in Edo is near comatose. It operates only in the fringes.
With the APC’s structure waxing stronger in the state, it is expected that Buhari will pull many votes. A 60-40 percent votes split in the presidential poll in favour of APC is predicted.
Verdict: Buhari
OSUN
In Osun State, which is firmly under the control of the APC, Jonathan may find it difficult to get listening ears during his campaigns. Consequently, his performance at the polls will be abysmal, pundits say. The mammoth crowd that thronged the Osogbo City Sports Stadium to receive Buhari last week when he visited the state in continuation of his presidential campaign, according to observers, is a sign of things to come.
This will be no surprise in Osun where, in spite of his good showing in the region in 2011, the President still lost to the ACN by a wide margin. With Governor Rauf Aregbesola still in charge and the PDP declining in status by the day, Buhari is positioned to win massively in the state.
Aregbesola’s convincing victory during last year’s governorship election and the rancor that saw PDP losing two former Governors of the state, Isiaka Adeleke and Olagunsoye Oyinlola to the APC in quick succession will also work against Jonathan in the state. The defection of Adeleke significantly assisted Aregbesola to garner sufficient votes in Osun West Senatorial District during the last August 9 governorship election in the state, as the areas were the strongholds of the PDP. Most likely, it will be an 80-20 situation in favor of Buhari in the February election in this state.
Verdict: Buhari
EKITI
The likely outcome of the election in Ekiti is too close to call. This is because of the current political scenario in the state. During the June 21, 2014 governorship election held in Ekiti State, the APC failed to retain the state, which it lost to PDP. The surprise emergence of Ayodele Fayose as governor of the state is no doubt a boost for President Jonathan and the PDP in the February election. If the preference of Fayose, an unrepentant Jonathan supporter is to count, then PDP will carry the day.
However, the APC is not likely to go down without a good fight in the state given the fact that it is in the majority in the House of Assembly as well as National Assembly members in the state. The fact that it was in charge of the state for four years barely months back, is also an advantage for Buhari. In addition, the reconciliation of Michael Opeyemi Bamidele, gubernatorial candidate of the Labour Party in the last election with the APC leadership will give PDP more troubles. Coupled with this is the belief in some quarters that the people of Ekiti will also vote for the progressive party alongside their counterparts in other South West states.
Verdict: Too close to call
ONDO
Here, the political drama that saw the massive decamping of major political actors from one political party to the other, which started in 2014 and continued into the New Year, will have serious impact on how the people will vote in February.
With the now ruling PDP torn into shreds and the Labour Party no longer in Governor Olusegn Mimiko’s kitty, coupled with a fast growing opposition APC in the same state, pundits say though Jonathan may still do well in the state considering its proximity to his native Bayelsa State and the large presence of Ijaw speaking communities in the oil producing area of the state, he will definitely record a lesser percentage of votes this time.
But with Buhari running on the platform of the APC this time and the general feeling of marginalisation among the Yorubas, his performance in the mainland and other parts of the state are too early to predict. The situation in Ondo is a close race with an unpredictable outcome.
Verdict: Too close to call
LAGOS
President Goodluck Jonathan’s decision to kick-off his campaign in Lagos, underlines the pivotal role the electorate in this state would play in determining who wins this election.
The most popular position is that Buhari will outshine Jonathan at the polls in Lagos State. The political base of APC’s national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the state will naturally support its ruling party. This is because the APC image has continued to soar by the day. Campaigns by the party so far across the state have witnessed huge crowds.
Although the PDP has tried to paper over the cracks that attended its governorship primaries, Buhari is in pole position to get the mandate of the people of the state on February 14 with a 75-25 vote split scenario.
Verdict: Buhari
OGUN
An array of PDP chieftains, including controversial Buruji Kashamu, former party boss, Joju Fadairo and Doyin Okupe, amongst others, are working round the clock to deliver the votes in the state to Goodluck Jonathan. They are no doubt determined to beat the APC to second place in the February election.
But matching the popularity and the wide acceptance of Governor Ibikunle Amosun is a huge task for Jonathan’s men. Consequently, Buhari’s visit to Abeokuta few days back was a huge success that saw the people of the Gateway State trooping out to see him.
An earlier visit by Jonathan also saw a mammoth crowd but the frenzy that greeted the APC rally gave indication of where the votes may go. Amosun’s track record of achievements, especially in the area of urban renewal, which has seen the massive construction of roads and bridges across the state will be an added advantage for his party.
Also, the seeming ‘siddon look’ attitude of people like former Governor Gbenga Daniel, former Speaker Dimeji Bankole, Jubril Martins Kuye and a host of other aggrieved PDP leaders may work against Jonathan in the state unless something urgent is done.
The indisputable political place of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo and his unhidden opposition to Jonathan’s aspiration will also work in favor of Buhari and his party. Expect a 70-30 percent vote split on February 14.
Verdict: Buhari
OYO
In Oyo state, the tattered state of Jonathan’s party may aid Buhari’s victory. He may likely do far better than Jonathan in the state given the fact that APC is in control of the state. Pundits also say apart from being an APC controlled state, Oyo is a core Yoruba state where the feeling of marginalisation is deep rooted.
Although the likes of Jumoke Akinjide, Jonathan’s Minister from the state, and Senator Teslim Folarin, gubernatorial candidate, are of the opinion that the people will vote for the Presdient in February, indications that this may not be so are numerous. The daily defection of party leaders from the PDP, which started with the exit of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala remains an issue.
With APC determined to hold on to the state, enjoying the support of all the first class monarchs including Alaafin of Oyo, Soun of Ogbomosho, Olubadan of Ibadan etc, Jonathan may find it difficult getting votes in Oyo.
Verdict: Buhari
ABIA
Since 1999, Abia has remained a PDP stronghold, notwithstanding the brief period when the former governor, Orji Uzor Kalu, in protest against alleged marginalization, floated a rival party, PPA, to which he carried the state machinery to complete his second tenure.
Abia had since returned to PDP and the current governor, Chief Theodore Orji, is a passionate supporter of Jonathan and, as insiders say, a very close friend of the president.
This being the case, there is no doubt that the governor, who is also flying the party’s senatorial flag for Abia Central Senatorial District, is poised to throw his weight behind Jonathan’s re-election and PDP’s victory in all the elections.
Aside utilising the governor’s incumbency factor to win votes for Jonathan, the fact that the First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan’s mother hailed from the state, has been maximally utilised to mobilize support for Jonathan in the state.
Jonathan is likely to win the presidential election in Abia but not with 98 percent as was the case in 2011. In fact, most respondents to The Nation’s questions are optimistic that Buhari may get above 20 percent votes here unlike the abysmal 0.31 percent he got in 2011. His reception during his recent campaigns says a lot about current political sensibilities here.
Verdict: Jonathan
EBONYI
Changing realities have made the political story of Ebonyi State very intriguing. Although a traditional PDP stronghold, which gave Jonathan 95.57 percent of its votes in 2011, Ebonyi State has become a major battle ground in the February 14 presidential election.
Under normal circumstances, Jonathan and his party, the PDP, would have easily cleared the votes here but for the ripple effects from the crisis in the party, which culminated in the political coup that dislodged control of the party from Governor Martin Elechi, the emergence of his deputy as the PDP flag bearer and the decision of Elechi’s men to the Labour Party.
Considering assertions that Elechi had firm control of the PDP political machinery at the grassroots before the coup from Abuja, and that he allowed his men to carry everything to Labour Party, analysts are contending that Labour may not only win the governorship election in the state, but may, in order to prove a point, vote against Jonathan at the presidential race.
Added to this is the increasing strength of the rival All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state, where Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu’s influence has come to play.
Bookmakers say any of the two leading presidential candidates can take the prize at the February 14 election, given the depth of bitterness, betrayals, and resolve to pay back.
Verdict: Too close to call.
ENUGU
Enugu State is another PDP stronghold where a Jonathan victory would have been seen as a given. But the rivalry between the outgoing governor, Sullivan Chime, and the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, just before the last primaries, dealt a major blow to the party in the state. Insiders said the opposition political parties – especially the APC used that opportunity to make great incursion into the state at the grassroots.
However, following the dramatic reconciliation of the Ekweremadu-led faction of PDP in Enugu and that of Chime, Jonathan’s supporters are optimistic he will still win in the state, where he got 98.54 percent votes against Buhari’s 0.36 percent in 2011.
While it may not be out of place for PDP to be optimistic that Jonathan will win in Enugu, informed observers cannot deny that many interests have been hurt in the pre-election politicking. This includes but not limited to the bitterness of the Senator Ayogu Eze’s camp of the PDP, which some close associates insist is yet to be properly handled.
Added to this is the dynamic campaign of Okey Ezea-led APC, which is poised to serve as a major boost to Buhari’s political fortunes in the state in February. With its Catholic dominated population, there is also the fear in the PDP camp that Father Ejike Mbaka’s recent sermon, may sway some precious votes to Buhari’s box. An 80-20 percent split in Jonathan’s favour is expected.
Verdict: Jonathan
ANAMBRA
Though an APGA-led state, Anambra has consistently voted for PDP at the presidential election. In 2011 Jonathan got 98.96 percent of all the votes cast at the presidential contest.
If not for the changing political sensibilities in the South-East zone, one would have predicted the same trend, since APGA, as it did in 2011, is not fielding its presidential candidate but has pledged to queue behind PDP’s Jonathan.
Given that boost, Jonathan will do well in Anambra State. But as the prose master, Chinua Achebe, who hails from this state, wrote in one of his great novels, things are ‘No longer at ease’ here. The political atmosphere is likely to influence the voting pattern, meaning that the opposition will make great impact here during this election unlike what played out in 2011.
The factors that are poised to make the change in February include the Dr Alex Ekwueme factor, the Rev Father Mbaka’s factor and Chris Ngige-led All Progressives Congress’ growing influence in the state. Jonathan is likely to win in Anambra State but Buhari is almost certain to get 25 percent votes here.
Verdict: Jonathan
IMO
Imo State, which used to be a People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP) stronghold, is currently an APC state under the Rochas Okorocha -led government. The state boasts of very strong and popular politicians in PDP, who have sworn to ensure a return of the state power to the party. But as former Vice President Ekwueme pointed out in his recent interview, Imo is not isolated in the crisis rocking PDP in the South-East. In fact, the elder statesman was quoted as lamenting that Imo PDP is “not serious.”
Given this scenario and the fact that Okorocha, whose first term scorecard is widely rated very high, is flying the governorship flag of APC for the February elections, there is the likelihood that more than any other South-East state, APC presidential candidate, Buhari is poised to defeat his major opponent, Jonathan in this state.
Verdict: Buhari
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is gradually evolving as a party with desperate antics. This, without equivocation, is a consequence of the emergence of the first real opposition to a sitting federal government in the nation’s history. The All Progressives Congress (APC) has made this possible through the tenacity of purpose of its leaders. With palpitating defeat staring PDP and President Goodluck Jonathan in the face, the party will stop at nothing, including descending to the abyss of everything immoral, to pass across messages of hatred and destruction up its sleeves. The PDP is doing this through its avalanche of flamborines of which Ayodele Fayose, governor of Ekiti State is topmost of those with high nuisance value.
Fayose is known for everything but decency and he was at the apogee of his nuisance when early this week, he published an advertisement in the newspapers depicting nothing but pathological hatred for the northern part and, serious contempt for human life. To the political loose canon from Ekiti, he was playing politics of Jonathan’s re-election, but to millions of Nigerians and the world, that advert was just a reflection of the best that the PDP comprising people like Fayose and clueless Jonathan can offer Nigerians, Ekiti and other parts where their ilk exist.
In the controversial advert titled: ‘Nigerians: Be Warned! Life and Death,’ published on the front pages of some national dailies including surprisingly, the revered Punch, he displayed pictures of late Nigerian leaders of northern extraction who died in office including Generals Murtala Muhammad, Sani Abacha and President Umaru Yar’Adua. He ended his mischievous list of pictures with that of the APC presidential candidate in the upcoming February 14, 2015 presidential election, General Buhari with a question mark and his age; and an additional highlighted message: “enough of state burials.”
By this last statement, he, a mere mortal, is playing God by undoubtedly portraying the north as being incapable of producing leaders that can outlive their tenure in power. To now put up an innuendo that Buhari may suffer same fate on ground of age if voted into power by Nigerians that are currently yearning for his leadership is not only obnoxious but also satanic – sadistic politics taken too far. Empirical evidence the world over has shown that the age a man gets to power is no sole determinant of how long he will live. An example will suffice here: Nelson Mandela (1908-2013) became South-Africa’s president on May10, 1994 at a ripe age and left power voluntarily on June14, 1999 and lived for years after before dying at age 95 on December 5, 2013. Apart from getting to leadership positions, if the 2014 World Health Statistics report published by the World Health Organisation (WHO) that put Nigerians’ life expectancy at 54 years is anything to go by, then someone like Fayose and even the president could be questionably said to be nearing their graves and should not be elected into office ab initio.
Fayose has not shown penitence over this inhuman gaffe as demonstrated through a statement he issued through his Chief Press Secretary that he has no apology for the controversial advertisement published on Monday. He is still warning Nigerians of the consequence of electing Buhari as the nation’s president, not on espoused principles and salient issues of national significance but on petty plank of age and unfounded health challenge.
This column is not unmindful of the usual antics and propaganda of an electoral season like this but will definitely not subscribe to the reprehensive antics displayed by Fayose in his paid adverts on the APC’s presidential candidate. The cacophony of disapproval from the public which greeted the publication is a reflection of the consideration of the advert as being thoughtless from a man and a party that cannot be considered less. By that act, Fayose has amplified his tactless as a man lacking in consideration for others. People like Fayose are thriving because the PDP in 16 years of misrule of Nigeria have merely succeeded in breeding people of questionable character that have sadly become politically ingrained as gleaming beasts.
The PDP campaign mouth organ has made a tepid rejection of the advertisement even while at the same time describing, in wild epithets, Fayose’s puffed-up deluding status in the ruling party and Ekiti state where he governs. What an offensive way of approbation and reprobation at the same time in the party’s laborious but futile bid of extricating itself from the condemnable act due to the deafening backlash it has garnered in public space. Even the presidency has not come out publicly to denounce such an odious advertisement placed with Ekiti tax payers’ money by Fayose with the sole aim of better positioning the president in his re-election bid. All reasonable Ekiti indigenes, anywhere in the world, should come out and condemn, like millions of other Nigerians have done, the Fayose advertisement against Buhari that has put the state’s name, once again, on the world map for the wrong reason.
That thoughtless advertisement with no respect for human life or dignity should be treated as a message from one of the president’s staunchest overzealous henchmen. The people of the north should get the message inherent as meant to denigrate its respected hegemony. The voters from this region should deploy their votes come February 14 to push President Jonathan out of power. The reality of the day is that Nigerians are fed up with PDP, especially Jonathan’s eggregious misrule and are really itching for CHANGE. This publicly nauseating advertisement is just because the ruling party, the president and his rotweillers cannot fathom the cyclonic demand for real change, courtesy of the APC. Now, they have taken, albeit unsuccessfully, refuge under the demand for Buhari’s original certificates. When they realised that bait would not deter the people from sticking with Buhari, they have changed tactics, cooking up phantom health issues on the man in the process.
Fayose is a notorious politician who has found himself in power for the second time simply because of the majesty of democracy that saw Ekiti people vote out Kayode Fayemi for whatever disagreement they had with his leadership style. The same Ekiti democratic wave is brewing across the country against President Jonathan and a million Fayoses cannot stop Nigerians from all the geo-political zones that are fed up with Jonathan from voting PDP and his presidential candidate out on February 14. That is the issue that the Fayose advertisement has further pushed to the fore -The need to guarantee APC’s promised change in the coming general elections.
The International Human Rights Commission (IHRC) has appointed the Group Managing Director of Buoshishi Group of Companies, Alhaji Yahaya Mohammed Abdullah, as its Ambassador to Northern Nigeria.
A letter of notification of the appointment reads: “In exercise of the powers conferred upon me by the constitution of the International Human Rights Commission under Article 18A; Clause 1-8, Read with first and second amendment of 1999 in the constitution passed by the Supreme Council at Rome Italy, I, Ambassador Dr. Muhammad Shahid Amin Khan, the World Chairman of the Commission is pleased to appoint and designate Mr. Mohammed Yahaya Abdullah as the Ambassador to IHRC to northern Nigeria with diplomatic identity card: HQ 0000740/14.”
According to the World Chairman’s letter, “the appointment takes effect from November 13, 2014 until further orders, given under my hand and seal”.
That the late Sir Ahmadu Bello (Sardauna of Sokoto) will be turning angrily in his grave or heaven about the current plight of northern Nigeria is not a strange thing to imagine. Here was an elder statesman that saw to the rapid development of the region irrespective of religion, ethnic affiliation or gender. Under him as the premier of the northern region, there was development in all facets of progression. Like the late sage Obafemi Awolowo, development to the premier of northern region was synonymous to existence in itself. Under him, a university sprang up in Zaria, a polytechnic and various industries in Kaduna, diverse scholarships for educational attainment and an assured future for the region in Nigeria.
Today, the story is different and abhorrent to all northerners and all Nigerians in general .In Nigeria, what constitutes a northerner? To some scholars, a northerner in Nigeria is anybody that is born in the northern part who has embraced the culture and traditions of the region. Thus the elder statesman General Yakubu Gowon is an embodiment of what a true northerner is having been born and brought up in Zaria even though originally from Plateau State as well as other southerners born and bred in the north. Yet to some parochial others, a northerner is anybody who can speak Hausa language fluently even though not all people from the northern states can speak the language. To others, the concept of a monolithic north does not exist in Nigeria. What then are the many travails of the north?
Firstly, it is the problem of education. This problem which was recognised nationally on the basis of educationally disadvantaged states was taken care of by past administrations through admission quotas allocated to the region and through the various schools of basic studies. Why then would a Shekau and his cohorts rise up in this generation to torment the north and Nigeria in general given this opportunity that would have captured him as a beneficiary? Similar programmes had been put in place and lately the Almajiri program of President Jonathan to address the educational lapses of the region. Without serving as a mouth piece of the same administration, nine out of the twelve universities established to resolve the imbalance in federal universities in all states of the country came from the region. So why is the region so educationally backward and in effect dragging the entire country in the reverse direction? Perhaps post-graduation employment would be the answer. For many graduates remained jobless many years after graduation nationally and therefore the incentive of citing new universities did not become an automatic carrot to bite.
Secondly, it is the problem of transportation. Incidentally, the present Minister of Transport is from the north. Since the north has no sea ports and rather land-locked it must rely on the ports of Lagos, Port-Harcourt and Calabar. Moreover, the population of the north has expanded considerably thereby putting pressure on our road networks for the conveyance of goods from the sea ports to the north. The goods are variable from consumer goods to petroleum products since our railroads are phenomenally only working on papers rather than on the tracks. A trip on the southwestern flank of the roads to the north will convince doubting thomases.This include from the Oyo city through to Ilorin, Jebba .Mokwa, Kaduna, Minna and Abuja. The roads are literally closed down by heavy haulage trucks especially at bad sectors of the road thereby increasing cost of procurement on the end users in the north. What business has heavy tankers conveying petroleum products on our roads when they can be conveyed by pipelines for refining in Kaduna and onward distribution at the NNPC depots? To the most ardent Jonathan supporter, a trip on the Oyo-Ogbomosho, Ilorin-Jebba, Mokwa and the other parts of the north will convince you about the slim chances he has in 2015 save for the minimal repair works going on there. This anger can be sighted in other parts of the country as well.
Thirdly, it is in the area of air transport. There are no cargo airports in the north and this explains why the roads are continually choked up to a gridlock stage. For if there were cargo airports in the north, most of the goods would be imported directly to the main cities and the heavy trucks blocking the highways would only have to convey the goods from the airport to their various destinations that would be nearby anyway. Who is then ready to rehabiliate the truck owners when the development comes? Water melon that is a delicacy in all parts of the country would be internally airlifted as much as other fruits and vegetables from the north to other parts of the country thereby making the roads free of traffic jam and prone to accidents. It also appears most northerners see themselves more in the light of the religion which they profess rather than as Nigerians thereby obstructing their collective need to demand for international airports that would airlift them to their various pilgrimages for spiritual rejuvenation and for cargo transport that would create jobs.
Fourthly, the north more than ever before faces the problem of security of lives and property. This is occasioned by the incessant Boko Haram attacks that does not spare anybody .The most recent is the Mubi and Gombe attacks with complete takeover of some parts of Adamawa by the insurgents. Most shocking is the fact that the sect leaders have a dream of leading Nigeria (not even northern Nigeria!).This shows that the sect has noticed a leadership vacuum in the north as provided by the late Sardauna of Sokoto which unfortunately cannot be reversed to the previous status quo. The north as we know it has been officially fragmented into different states created by the federal government with irreversible power affiliation to the old northern region. This is why the security arrangement is different in all states of the north and Benue for instance can order the evacuation of her students from Adamawa schools especially in Mubi for safety reasons from the rampaging and neurotic insurgents. This was unheard of during the days of the Sardauna when security was intact in the north.
Fifthly, the north faces the problem of trust among the various constituents. This is why you can hear of north-west, north-central and north-central that is all self-serving to politicians and the powers that be on paper. Unemployment and poverty remains very high in the region. Some blame it on neglect from past leadership of the country which was held in trust for many years in the north. Most industries in Kaduna and many parts of the north have remained closed down due to diverse problems. Textile industries that used to be one of the highest employers of labour in the north are also majorly shut. There is the need to support agriculture in the region in order to solve the twin problems of unemployment and poverty.
In conclusion, the north needs peace in order to develop competitively with other regions of the country. Boko Haram is not the answer.
– Emmanuel Tyokumbur
Department of Zoology, University of Ibadan.
Edo North senatorial aspirant on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Chief Richard Lamai, has urged his party to field a formidable candidate, who can defeat the All Progress Congress (APC) in next year’s election.
Lamai said the party can only make an impact, if the ticket is given to the best man. Noting that Edo State is being governed by an energetic governor, he said only an energetic candidate with massive grassroots support can wrest power from the ruling party.
He described himself as a loyal party man, stressing that ,when he indicated his interest to contest in 2003, he was told to step down and work for the second term of Senator Victor Oyofo.
Lamai said he took the advice and worked towards the party’s victory in 2003 and 2007, adding that the decision enabled him to work closely with Chief Tony Anenih, Chief Raymond Dokpesi and the elder statesman, Chief Edwin Kiagbodo Clark.
The aspirant said he is competent to represent the district at the Senate.
He added that he has remained faithful to the PDP, even when many members dumped the party for the APC when they could not achieve their ambition within the fold.
He implored the party to give his candidature preference, especially now that he has garnered enough exposure and experience as protégé of the legendary Clark, who is widely acknowledged as the political father of Mr. President and the Southsouth leader of the party.
Lamai told the party leaders in the six local government areas of Edo-North that his cardinal objective is to stimulate economic development of the district through the establishment of small-scale industries in all the 64 wards of the zone.
The senatorial aspirant said that, within 64 days in office, he would establish 64 small scale industries in each of the 64 wards of Edo North. This, he said, would be achieved through non-repayable empowerment scheme.
Northern leaders are responsible for 70 per cent of the North’s woes, President of the Civil Rights Congress Comrade Shehu Sani said at the weekend.
He said the President Goodluck Jonathan administration was responsible for the remaining 30 per cent of the region’s problems.
Sani spoke in Kaduna when he visited unpaid workers of the closed Kaduna Textile Limited (KTL).
He said northern leaders had the opportunity to industrialise the region but failed to do so when they were at the helm of affairs.
The activist said the North could live without oil revenue, if it revived textile industries and agriculture, and invested in solid minerals, adding that the possibility of exploring oil from the North is “indispensable”.
He said: “The northern part of Nigeria has been destroyed 70 per cent by northern leaders and 30 per cent by the Jonathan administration. Northern leaders had the opportunity to industrialise, educate and uplift the region, but they have left behind a region that is backward and whose future is in doubt.
“For over three decades when northerners were in power, they used the opportunity to empower traditional rulers and make the rich richer. But what is very clear is that northern Nigeria can live without oil revenue. What it needs are political leaders, who understand the reality of change that is fast taking place in Nigeria and the world, and the need to harness the resources of the North for the development of its people.
“It is time for northern political leaders to sit down and devote more energy to the economic revival and empowerment of the region as much as they devote energy to the political future of the rich.
“The textile industry has been destroyed by years of neglect by successive governments and political leaders in the North. Northern Nigeria has a lot to deliver to its people. The need to revive the textile industries and agriculture, invest in solid minerals and the possibility of exploiting oil from the North is indispensable.”
SIR: In this centennial season of blame game over everything that has gone wrong with Nigeria since 1914, it is not surprising that President Goodluck Jonathan has become the whipping boy. But while it is justifiable to criticise the President fairly for what he does or does not do, that does not confer on any person or group of persons the right to distort facts, misinform the people and accuse him of offences, which even a day-old baby can exonerate him from. It is in this category that the wicked accusations of Alhaji Ibrahim Coomasie and his Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) fall. According to the ACF, President Jonathan has not only failed the North but also hates our people from the North.
To face the issues raised by Coomasies’s ACF, it is not true that President Jonathan has failed in protecting the North. If anything, it is some northern leaders like Coomasie that have failed the region. Although many scholars and strategists have given many reasons for the emergence of the deadly insurgence in the North, an eclectic position is that bad leadership that manifestly impoverished the people of the area of a long period of time is one certain factor.
For many years, northern elite wielded power and did absolutely nothing to improve the access and quality of education in the region. And neither did they build a culture of enterprise and industry there. Instead, what they promoted was personal wealth at the expense of the people, rural and mass poverty that Boko Haram is feeding off for its recruitment.
If Coomasie is weeping that the North has become divided politically today, how is that the problem of President Jonathan? The concept of the monolithic North has always been problematic. The high-handedness of people like Coomasie who hid under the banner of “one North” to promote a certain ethnic group while subjugating the others in a well-orchestrated internal colonialism policy has found them out. The logic of democracy and the freedom that it inheres are responsible for the boldness that the hitherto subjugated peoples and groups in the North are displaying against an oligarchy that is slow in coming to terms with the reality of the modern Nigeria.
Those who are nostalgic about the “unity” of the North are perhaps jittery to explain in whose interest this unity had been in the past. If the monolithic North is disintegrating, it has nothing to do with the President. If anything, those now pointing fingers at different directions need to re-examine the power relations in the North and how much power had been put in the service of the ordinary people all these years. If it takes an Ijaw man from Otuoke to improve the life chances of the ordinary citizens in the North who have borne the brunt of prebendal use of power by their own elite for many decades, who cares about the selfish moaning of Coomasie and his ACF?
Kaduna
President Goodluck Jonathan has not failed the North, contrary to claims by Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chieftain has said.
PDP Chairman, Mobilisation and Organisation Committee, Prince Buruji Kashamu, described the criticism as unfair and “most unfortunate”. In a statement, he urged support for the President to combat the insurgency in the North.
Kashamu said: “The attempt by the ACF to heap the blame of the security challenges in the Northeast on President Goodluck Jonathan is unfair.
“Terrorism is a global phenomenon and requires broad-based cooperation. We should take a cue from other climes where the citizens support those in government after the elections are over.”
He called for support for the administration‘s Transformation Agenda. He said it was disingenuous for any group to insinuate that “the current policies and the government attitude towards the insurgency suggest that there was a deliberate plan to emasculate the North politically”.
Kashamu noted that as part of the measures by the Goodluck Jonathan administration to end insurgency, it has launched the “Save Our Schools” initiative as well as the “Victims Support Fund and pursues the almajiris education programme and other job creation initiatives.
“The ACF and other lovers of our nation should work towards the sustenance of democracy, which is the necessary ingredient for peace,” he said.
On the insinuation that the ACF’s intervention has political undertones, Kashamu said it was advisable for the respectable Northern leaders to support President Jonathan for a second term so as to have the “political equity” to negotiate in 2019.
“Our Northern brothers and sisters need to know that we all need to jealously guard and protect this edifice called Nigeria because if it is destroyed, there would not be anywhere to call home.”
The PDP chief said President Jonathan is more qualified than any other leader that ever ruled the nation, given his rise from a deputy governor to President.