THERE was no doubt from the beginning that one letter/special statement from ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, no matter how penetrating, deeply wounding and vitriolic, would be insufficient to unhorse the gangling but solid aurochs, President Muhammadu Buhari. One letter, too, would not be enough to galvanise an anti-Buhari hysteria nor trigger the political avalanche needed to destroy the dominance of Nigeria’s informal two-party system, the unseemly relay race between the preachy and phlegmatic Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the inefficient but feisty upstart, the All Progressives Congress (APC). It was also clear that one letter or special press release from the redoubtable former president was never going to measure high enough on the Richter scale to damage the reputation of the president among his trusting and unquestioning supporters in parts of the North.
As a result, a second special statement from Dr Obasanjo, and possibly a third, and a fourth, might be needed to deliver the required payload to shunt President Buhari from the complacent orbit where he and his aides seem to think he is destined for another dead-stick landing at Aso Villa. The former president wrapped his new intention in very tentative but cryptic tones. “After my last letter, it will take some time before I write another one,” he had said noncommitally at the 14th annual lecture on Women in Business in Lagos last Thursday. Every newspaper that reported Dr Obasanjo’s remarks suggested he would write again, based on his use of words. Assuming his use of words was deliberate, and going by his antecedents, especially his implacability and emotional coldness, Dr Obasanjo can be trusted to lash out a few more times at his quarry. For him, there is usually no turning back until the enemy is captured or neutralised.
In his interaction with the media, Dr Obasanjo disclosed that the movement he inspired, the Coalition for Nigeria Movement (CNM), had chalked up some three million members, an indication to him that some steady progress was being made. But whether the CNM eventually flags because of low momentum, or gets an adrenalin shot, the former president will doubtless be encouraged to fire a few more vicious broadsides at the president. It will not matter whether he is right or justified. What will matter is that in many respects President Buhari is deemed in parts of the country to be both underperforming and prejudiced. Dr Obasanjo may be the least morally qualified to launch his customised attacks, but his logic and exploitation of facts, not to say his prolixity, will find listening ears.
Under President Buhari, the economy has lumbered through thickets of bad and misjudged policies, attesting to Dr Obasanjo’s dismissive characterisation of President Buhari as an economic ignoramus, while insecurity has burgeoned dramatically, belying the president’s vaunted expertise in that explosive and unpredictable field. With the economy underperforming and insecurity worsening, thus exposing the country to contradictions and other anarchical spinoffs, President Buhari has become a sitting duck. Dr Obasanjo and other opportunistic attackers will take potshots at him. Since the president is also naturally apolitical, and is shorn of the charisma and effervescence that easily attracts the discerning and intellectual public to him, every attack against him, particularly from notable personalities like Dr Obasanjo, is bound to have some telling effect.
Is there anything the president can do to forestall the searing epistolary attacks, or weaken them when they come? Little or nothing. Since he cannot change or mend his ways, rid himself of the gaffes that dog his outings, or worm his way into the cockles of the people’s hearts through endearing and empathetic words, he will remain exposed to vicious attacks, whether those attacks end up accomplishing the objectives of their authors or not. In short, with bated breath, and every time he thinks of the likes of Dr Obasanjo, the president will wait for the other shoe to drop.