The governorship primaries were full of surprises. Some predictions didn’t come to pass. New permutations displaced old calculations. From the stormy shadow polls, three candidates were thrown up by major political parties that are in reckoning in Edo State.
After the conclusion of its inconclusive primary, Senator Monday Okpebholo was declared candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Also, authentic Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) delegates elected Asue Ighodalo as flag bearer in a primary monitored by Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) officials.
But, the most surprising is Olumide Akpata, a green horn, who beat some veteran politicians and serial contestants to get the ticket of the Labour Party (LP).
Okpebholo of APC survived what commentators have described as the conspiracy of godfathers, whose anointed candidate, Dennis Idahosa, was falsely declared winner of “a primary at half time.” An agricultural economist, he needs the same energy, resilience and will power to survive the impending September battle.
Edo APC is divided. The poll that became inconclusive was an indictment. Ego and self-interest have to be jettisoned now. Having corrected its flawed primary, the next assignment for the party is genuine reconciliation in the polarised chapter.
Ighodalo, a lawyer and candidate of Governor Godwin Obaseki, is a product of a surviving godfather, who dealt a terrible blow to his former godfather, Adams Oshiomhole, on whose back he rode to power over seven years ago.
The governor, leaning on the power of incumbency and financial war chest, secured a second term. If he survives the heat of the September poll, Obaseki would have achieved the rare feat of “Mr. Fix It” Tony Anenih, the legendary custodian of PDP Solution Centre.
It is important to note that PDP is not aware of the unauthorised and inexplicable primary that gave the aggrieved Deputy Governor, Philip Shaibu, the flag.
However, if Shaibu is not pacified, he may seek refuge in a small party, to the detriment of PDP.
LP has elected someone who is a political rookie as candidate. But, can Akpata be ignored now in Edo politics? His antecedent shows that he is ever ready for battles.
Indeed, he had even survived life-threatening personal battles in the past. Against prediction, he beat well known senior colleagues at the bar to become President of Nigeria Bar Association (NBA).
Ahead of the primary, he was up and doing. He made the most noise as if he was warming up for a general election. His strategies worked, to the consternation of experienced politicians who competed with him. He dusted them all.
Until he became NBA president, he was relatively unknown. Yet, he is from an illustrious background.
Why Akpata is a man to watch is that he is Bini, his paternal uncles being the late Chief Olu Akpata of the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) and the late Chief Tayo Akpata, celebrated university administrator and chieftain of National Party of Nigeria (NPN). His district, Edo South, has the largest voting population in the South-South state.
Thus, Edo now has to choose among the three; two lawyers and an economist, in a poll where candidates of other mushroom parties would be spectators.
Many issues are expected to shape the electioneering. APC and PDP candidates are from Edo Central, a district that has not produced a governor since 1999. The first governor, Lucky Igbinedion, is from South. His legitimate successor, Adams Oshiomhole, hails from the North. Obaseki is also from South. Prof. Oserheimen Osunbor was like an interloper who was asked to surrender the stolen mandate after spending some months in State House. Therefore, the sentiment in the state favours Edo Central, although its population is not huge.
That sentiment may be limited to Edo Central and North afterall. The general view of Edo South is unknown. It has to be determined, especially now that it has a son of the soil, Akpata, on the ballot. It is also argued that zoning may not be the almighty factor in a relatively homogenous state.
Two more issues that deserve consideration are the disposition of the Benin palace and choice of running mates. It is most likely that since PDP and APC candidates are from Central, they may pick their running mates from the South, the most populous district. Akpata is most likely to pick his running mate from the North.
The view of the palace cannot be ignored. Edo people worship their monarch as god. He sits on a highly prestigious throne. Omo N’oba N’edo is always a factor in every affair of the vast kingdom.
The voting history of Edo Central shows that the district is addicted to the PDP. It is a factor the candidates outside the zone will also consider in their permutations.
However, the sentiment against Edo South cannot also be ignored. It has produced two governors before. LP followers are hoping that by going to Edo South they can leverage on the majority population. But this goes against the sentiment in the state as Obaseki, who is from the zone, will just be completing two terms of eight years.
During the campaigns, the LP candidate hopes to project himself as the new saviour. He will definitely whip up emotions and sentiments by drawing attention to the current economic challenges. LP may also be economical with truth by not laying bare the import of the Federal Government’s economic reforms, which in the long run, will bear positive fruits.
Akpata will largely appeal to the Obidients on foot and social media. They may wake up from their slumber, having been shocked by the outcome of the last presidential poll that confirmed their idol, Peter Obi, lacked the spread.
The candidate of PDP is not a politician. Unlike the LP, which may employ propaganda, Ighodalo is likely to restrict himself to issues – how to revive the economy, how to create jobs, how to build on what Obaseki has done and how to do what he has failed to do.
Outside Edo, the name APC candidate Okpebholo does not ring much of a bell. But, being a senator and winner, his popularity in the chapter and in Edo is not in doubt. A man that rubbed shoulders with Oshiomhole and triumphed cannot be dismissed with the wave of hand.
The lessons of the primaries are instructive. There is restoration of internal democracy. The shadow polls were neatly done; transparent, democratic and credible.
In the APC, Oshhiomhole’s permutations were rejected. The lion tried to roar. But, he could not scare the people who had made up their minds. Although he remains party leader, new centres of influence are competing for the space. Is it suggestive of the eclipse of godfatherism?
It would appear that the sentiment also is that Edo people are for equity and they now loathe the imposition of the next governor by any godfather.
Remarkably, Okpebholo’s emergence is the result of a coalition of interests in APC. Those against Oshiomhole ganged up against the former governor.
However, Oshiomhole will still have a major role to play during the campaigns and the election. At least, he is expected to deliver Edo North to his party. He currently represents the district in the Senate.
The campaigns will be hot. They will be full of drama. The people of Edo look forward to the debate by contestants ahead of the critical poll.
APC may seek to profit from the overwhelming power of incumbency at the centre. It is debatable. If any APC chapter fails to put its house in order and expects President Bola Tinubu to rescue its candidate on poll day, it is daydreaming. During the recent off-season governorship elections, the president guaranteed a level playing ground for candidates and their parties as a statesman and father of the nation. Those who won praised him for promoting the cause of democracy. A pattern has been set by the President.
In PDP, Ighodalo has some hurdles to cross, despite his victory at the primary, he lacks a personal structure. His backbone is the governor, who has to convince the people to vote for him.
A technocrat and party financier, Ighodalo is seen as Obaseki’s choice. His big challenge is how to get the bitterly-divided PDP together. The feeling in Edo PDP is that politicians who supported Obaseki when Oshiomhole put the heat on him have been used, dumped and disowned. Indeed, like the APC, there is a need for peace talks in the party.
Already, Shaibu has vowed to work against the party. If he contests on the platform of another party, it means that a split vote is imminent. His major followers are PDP members.
The danger is that unless they are pacified in one way or the other, other aggrieved aspirants who failed at the primary and who may not defect can undermine the platform in a bid to get a pound of flesh from the governor.
The solution is to imbibe the culture of inclusion. Other positions, including the deputy governor, can be evenly distributed to reflect varied interests in the party. A lot of promises have to be made by Ighodalo to secure their support. The campaign organisation should also reflect the various interests in the party.
LP, for now, is not formidable in Edo. The structureless party surprisingly did well in last year’s presidential election because of the Obi factor. But when it came to governorship, senatorial, House of Representatives and House of Assembly polls, it was weak. Most of its candidates could not fly.
Akpata is full of bravado. Like others, his chance may be bright, if he returns to the drawing board to restrategise. He needs the support of other aspirants. A primary contrasts sharply with the real poll.
Ultimately, whoever wins may be down to who succeeds best in managing post-primary crises and reconciliation process, given that each of the three big parties has an army of aggrieved factions.
It is gratifying that during the primaries, party members trooped out to participate in the exercise across the three parties. It underscored effective mobilisation of party members by the aspirants. This should be sustained. Parties should mobilise effectively for the election so that there will be no voting fatigue or apathy.
