Power has shifted in Edo State, following the outcome of the governorship poll held in 18 local governments at the weekend. The candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Monday Okpebholo, defeated his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) rival, Dr. Asue Ighodalo. Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the implication of the crumbled succession plan for Governor Godwin Obaseki and his party.
Edo State Governor Godwin Obaseki had a plan to instal a successor. He actually worked hard to achieve a targeted result. But yesterday, the dream paled into day dreaming.
At the close of governorship poll, reality stared at the embattled chief executive and his co-travellers in Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the face. Despite the bravado, they had laboured in vain.
The election has been won and lost. In three months, Senator Monday Okpebholo of All Progressives Congress (APC), and not Dr. Asue Ighodalo of PDP, will be the new chief tenant in Osadebey House, Benin-city.
Power is transient and no condition is permanent.
It is a turning point in the state. Six years after losing power, following the internal contradiction in the party, APC has mustered the strength to bounce back. Instructively, the forces that brought the governor to power eight years ago aborted his plan to make his anointed candidate governor.
To analysts, the result of the poll was a referendum on the performance of the Obaseki administration. It translated into an endorsement of power shift. It was the end of an era in the state.
The campaign was hot. On both sides, candidates and their godfathers, Obaseki and Adams Oshiomhole, never left anything to chances. During the campaigns, people trooped out to receive the flagbearers. The burden was on the governor to explain his push for continuity of PDP government in Edo.
Apprently, Obaseki saw defeat coming. The handwriting was bold on the wall. Perhaps, he could not read it from afar. The political danger was looming, but he could not avert it. After he refused to sign the peace accord, he also cried foul, alleging plans by the APC to rig. The power of incumbency had crumbled.
It was a keenly contested election. Both candidates, Okpebholo and Ighodalo from Edo Central District are eminently qualified to govern the state. The only difference is that certain circumstances made the pendulum of victory to swing more towards APC’s direction. The lesson is that party leaders have to put their house in order, anticipate the intervening variables and work ahead to mitigate their effects on the ballot box.
It was obvious APC was better prepared, although it was not a walk over. As opposition leader, it was more focused and more united unlike PDP. Indeed, APC quickly ovecame the initial crisis unleashed by its rancorous primary. Also, the party opted for genuine reconciliation as underscored by the equitable sharing formula. The Okpebholo/Idahosa ticket was the outcome of the truce. After that, the party started to work hard to displace the PDP.
However, the strength of Edo PDP only laid in its power of incumbency. As the ruling party, it had enough resources at its disposal to prosecute Obaseki’s succession plan. But there was disputation. Many chieftains who were aggrieved never believed that Ighodalo was a collecive candidate.
Why APC settled for a home-grown candidate, Okpebholo, who is a Edo Central senator, Ighodalo, to some PDP stalwarts, was imposed by the governor. The aggrieved PDP chieftains, led by Dan Orbih, distanced themselves from the succession projects. Reconciliation failed in the party.
Also, defections from PDP to APC meant that the defectors have, to some extent, split the votes. Only few ruling parties actually have the chance of winning, following a split, ahead of critical elections.
The APC governors of the two contiguous states of Ondo and Kogi lent their hands of support to the Edo APC chapter. Ondo State Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa stormed the state to mobilise the voting population in Yoruba-speaking areas in the North District. More importantly, his Kogi counterpart, Usman Ododo leaned on cultural affinity of a section of his Kogites to appeal to those communities sharing boundaries with his state to vote for APC. For example, Ododo stormed Etuno, capital of Akoko-Edo,to campaign. He elicited a promise from the people to vote for Okpebholo. The mobilisation approach yielded political capital. Obaseki’s deputy, Godwin Omobayo, could not resist the APC arsenal.
In the North District made up of six local governments, APC won. It was trailed by PDP. The Labour Party (LP) which fielded Olumide Akpata, former president of the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA), was lost in the crowd.
Contrary to predictions in some quarters, APC won Egon. The people have been complaining about infrastructural deficit. They had cried out that the area was neglected by the state government.
In Orhionmwon, where the people have frowned at the way government acquired some lands, there was protest vote. Two APC leaders, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu and Dr. Pius Odubu, who already had an axe to grind with Obaseki, were at work.
However, in the Central District, PDP checkmated APC. Ighodalo won three of the five local governments; APC won two. The implication is that despite being the current senator from the district, PDP is currently more popular than APC in the district. The two APC dominated councils are Esan Central (with headquarters at Irua) and Esan West (with headquarters at Ekpoma). But the son of the soil, Ighodalo, won Uromi.
The impact of zoning or rotation was felt in the Edo election, particularly in the Central District. In their wisdom, the two parties zoned their tickets to the district. LP was insensitive to zoning, thereby fielding a candidate from the South to succeed Obaseki, who is from the zone, after his two terms of eight years.
Predictably, the South District was the battle ground and the ultimate decider. Besides showing real dominance in the North, APC made inroad into the South. It won Ovia, birthplace of Dennis Idahosa, House of Representatives member and running mate to Okpebholo. Also, it won Oredo where the defectors, including Senator Matthew Urhoghide, director-general of APC Campaign Council, and Ogbade Ihama, changed the tide.
In certain parts of Yorubaland, particularly Benin, the traditional institution, despite its neutrality, has remained a powerful factor in political calculations.
What next after the poll? The two parties will do a post-mortem. Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will also study and review its procedures to avoid late coming of polling staff to polling units in subsequent elections.
The election monitors and observers will turn in their reports in aid of future polls.
Those rounded off by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) for alleged vote-buying may be prosecuted, after a thorough investigation.
If the PDP accepts its fate, it would return to the drawing board to restrategise ahead of future polls. If not, the results would be tested at the tribunal to ascertain its substantial compliance with the constitution and Electoral Act.
As power slipped from Edo PDP, the party will be left in the cold for four years. Party leaders will begin to lick their wounds. They may regress into a blame game.
But, the next critical assignment for the party is to re-examine itself to see where it made costly mistakes. The party has to brace for the role of an opposition. Its leaders require adjustment into the new role.
Also, for the party to survive, there is need for its aggrieved and warring leaders to embrace reconciliation, forgive one another and chart a new course for the future
