Tag: Oil

  • ‘Africa loses $15b to crude oil, natural gas export’

    ‘Africa loses $15b to crude oil, natural gas export’

    The African continent is losing about 70 per cent of her crude oil and 45% of her natural gas annually to export. This amount to about $15 billion annually in added could be generated locally, especially in the midstream and downstream segments.

    This was disclosed by the Secretary-General of African Petroleum Producers Organisation, Farid Ghazali, at the ongoing 9th edition of the Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES), in Abuja.

    According to the APPO scribe, financing remains the main bottleneck hindering the development of the continent’s strategic projects, as more than 150 essential projects from refineries to pipelines such as the Ajaokuta-Kano-Kaduna (AKK) pipeline to gas infrastructure remain blocked.

     “This is the situation because the cost of financing in Africa is 15-20 per cent compared to only 4-6 per cent in Asia. This disparity is unacceptable and slows down our progress. In addition, the fragmentation of our energy financial ecosystem is a challenge.

    “Our 18 national oil companies in APPO often operate in isolation without a common stock exchange, which severely limits regional synergies and our collective ability to attract massive capital,” Ghazali said.

    Faced with this emergency, is further said, APPO has worked tirelessly to forge a resiliently African and pragmatic solution, which is called the African Energy Bank (AEB). The AEB, he explained, is designed to unlock the $200 billion needed for the continent’s midstream-downstream projects by 2030.

    He further explained that the AEB is a pan-African platform for the exchange of equipment, energy services, and above all, a catalyst for innovative financing to support structuring African energy projects. He added that it is time to produce what Africa is consuming and to consume what she produces.

    Read Also: Temitope Adeoye calls for carbon credit awareness across Nigeria

    This includes allowing the listing of shares of national companies and flagship projects such as the Dangote Refinery or the Akk Pipeline, for example, as the target is to raise $15 billion in just three years with this increased liquidity.

    The bank will also ensure competitive regional pricing, as it will unify intra-African pricing for oil and gas, allowing member countries to achieve savings of up to 30 per cent on their energy imports, a potential gain of $1.4 billion for Africa.

    Ghazali said the financial institution will connect Africa’s certified projects to the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, such as IDAA and PIF, as well as to capital markets with structured green bonds and public-private partnerships (PPPs).

    “We plan to start regional gas-oil trading, integrating the principles of the Brazzaville Declaration for 50 per cent local content. Phase 3, reaching 2030, the African Energy Bank will be a true African financial hub, with $200 billion mobilised to support the gas transition and energy transformation of our continent.

    “Project financing for billions of dollars, regional savings of around 30 per cent of import costs, 500,000 direct jobs created in the local midstream, attractiveness for sovereign wealth funds and global investors. We are not mistaken if we affirm that Africa has already proven its ability to achieve great things,” he asserted.

    He described the Nigeria Content Development and Management Board (NCDMB), with its $5 billion in local contracts through partnerships with IOCs, as an aspiring model of local content, noting that the realisation of large projects such as the Dongote Refinery, which was able to attract private capital once de-risked, are concrete proof that African projects can and will attract local and international investors if offered the right framework.

    “Today, from Abuja, the capital of the country that will host the Bank Africa Energy, thanks to the Republic Federal of Nigeria, I propose to seal an Abuja Pact, a collective commitment by Nigeria and several other APO member countries to launch and make the Africa Energy Bank full operational by middle of 2026.

    This pact, he said, will align perfectly with the discussion on local content and regional gas diplomacy. He advised that it is by joining forces, pooling resources and embracing this shared vision that APPO and Nigeria can be the undisputed leaders in Africa energy financing.

  • Oil prices surge to $78 a barrel

    Oil prices surge to $78 a barrel

    • Triggers by likely U.S. strike on Iran

    Oil prices rallied yesterday by nearly five per cent with the global benchmark, Brent crude rising to $71.62 a barrel, while Bonny light crude went as high as $78 a barrel yesterday for the first time since last August. The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude, was also trading higher, up by 4.79 per cent to $66.24. WTI topped $65 per barrel for the first time since September.

    The rise was predicated on the stance of the U.S. President Donald Trump against Iran, warning the country of a “massive armada” of U.S. Navy ships is headed to the Persian Gulf.

    The global markets have since reacted to the renewed tension in the world’s most important oil-producing and exporting region as tensions between the U.S. and Iran worsened, raising concerns over disruptions to the global flow of crude.

    “The situation with Iran continues to escalate,” said Josh Young, chief investment officer at Bison Interests, an oil and gas investment firm.

    “If even a portion of Iranian supplies come off the market, that would be enough to sustain recent gains,” he told MarketWatch.

    That could also lead to further gains, “depending how much more comes off and if other supplies are put at more direct risk.”

    WTI crude for March delivery was up 4.8 per cent at $66.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $66.40. That was the highest intraday level since Sept. 26, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

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    March Brent crude tacked on 4.7 per cent to $71.62 on ICE Futures Europe, poised for its highest finish since July.

    WTI oil futures top $66 a barrel. Prices had settled on Wednesday at a four month high as President Donald Trump renewed its threats on Iran, pressuring it to reach a nuclear deal.

     “Time is running out, it is truly of the essence!” he said in the post. In response, Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York posted on X that Iran was ready for dialogue, adding: “But if pushed, it will defend itself and respond like never before”

    “The timeline on a U.S. attack on Iran appears to be drawing near,” Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA, wrote in a note yesterday.

    “A quick read through of the mainstream press generally seems to tilt towards surgical strikes on the Iranian leadership, with the goal of forcing regime change,” he said.

    “Targets would include military bases used by the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij militia, ballistic missile sites, and Iran’s nuclear programme.” The U.S. launched air and sea strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran in June of last year.

    Iran produces around 3.3 million barrels per day of oil, with production “generally surviving multiple crisis over the years,” Yawger said.

    After a week of relative calmness in the U.S. rhetoric toward Iran, President Trump warned the Islamic Republic of a Venezuela-style “mission,” at least this is what the President suggested in a post on his Truth Social platform.

    “A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose,” President Trump posted.

    “It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary,” the President continued.

    He urged Iran “to make a deal” pledging “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS,” otherwise, President Trump said, “The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again.”

    Iran, for its part, said that its army is ready to “immediately and powerfully” respond to any possible attack by the United States.

    “Our brave Armed Forces are prepared—with their fingers on the trigger—to immediately and powerfully respond to ANY aggression against our beloved land, air, and sea,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X.

    Commenting on the latest flare-up in the Middle East, ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Thursday, “Clearly, this more aggressive rhetoric has left the oil market nervous about the potential for supply disruptions.”

  • Oil up on US storm disruption

    Oil up on US storm disruption

    Oil prices rose by around one per cent yesterday as producers reeled from a winter storm that hobbled crude production and affected refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast over the weekend, with the slow restart of output from the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan further boosting prices.

    Brent crude futures were up 61 cents or 0.93per cent, at $66.20 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 59 cents or 0.97per cent, at $61.22 a barrel.

    U.S. oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day or roughly 15per cent of national production over the weekend, analysts and traders estimated, as a severe winter storm swept across the country, straining energy infrastructure and power grids.

     “The cold weather in the U.S. will likely cause quite significant drawdowns in oil stocks over the next few weeks, particularly if this weather persists,” an oil analyst at brokerage PVM, Tamas Varga said..

    This could boost prices in the coming days, he said, adding that some traders are also likely to be taking profit on heating oil, which has risen sharply in recent days.

    Elsewhere, Kazakhstan’s biggest oilfield, Tengiz, is likely to restore less than half of its normal production by February 7 as it slowly recovers from a fire and power outage, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

    Read Also: Firms hold 5-day training program on oil and gas

     “The recovery of Tengiz production seems to be happening slower than earlier expected, keeping the oil market tighter,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, adding that the weaker U.S. dollar was lending some support.

    However, the CPC, which operates Kazakhstan’s main exporting pipeline, said it returned to full loading capacity at its terminal on the Russian Black Sea coast after maintenance was completed at one of its three mooring points.

    A U.S. aircraft carrier and supporting warships have arrived in the Middle East, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Monday, expanding President Donald Trump’s capabilities to defend U.S. forces, or potentially take military action against Iran.

    Tensions between Tehran and Washington coupled with no news on the Ukraine-Russia peace deal are keeping a floor under crude, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

    Meanwhile, OPEC+ is set to keep its pause on oil output increases for March at a meeting on February 1, three OPEC+ delegates told Reuters.

  • Oil rises further as IEA predicts surplus in Q1

    Oil rises further as IEA predicts surplus in Q1

    WTI crude oil futures rose more than two per cent to about $60.8 per barrel on Friday, extending gains for a fifth straight week supported by geopolitical and supply risks. The move followed renewed warnings from US President Donald Trump toward Iran, raising concerns over potential military action that could disrupt oil flows.

    Trump said the US has an armada heading toward Iran, while US officials confirmed warships including an aircraft carrier and guided missile destroyers will arrive in the Middle East in coming days.

    Supply worries were reinforced by ongoing outages in Kazakhstan, where output at the giant Tengiz oilfield has yet to resume after a shutdown earlier this week.

    Also, the dollar slid toward its worst week in seven months, making crude cheaper for non-US buyers amid strained US-Europe relations and unresolved Ukraine peace talks.

    However, gains remain capped by expectations of oversupply, with the IEA projecting global stockpiles to rise by 3.7 million bpd this year.

    Meanwhile, the global oil market will be in deep surplus in the first quarter of 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said. It based its predictions on the excess supplies which has offset the geopolitical risk of disruption.

    The IEA, which advises industrialised countries, in its monthly oil report projected global oil supply would exceed demand by 4.25 million barrels per day in the first quarter. A surplus of that size would be about four per cent of world demand and is larger than other predictions.

    Read Also: DSS nabs suspected sea pirates, foils hijack of crude oil vessel, abduction of crew members

    Oil prices have risen about six per cent since the start of the year, as concerns about geopolitics and possible oil market disruption drove buying. Global benchmark Brent was trading at $65.02 last week.

    The U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro at the start of the month and called on oil companies to invest in Venezuela to boost production, but in the short-term supplies from the country have been disrupted. Threats of possible U.S. strikes on Iran have also raised the prospect of reduced supplies and drone attacks and technical issues have reduced output in Kazakhstan.

    “Barring any significant disruptions to supplies in Iran, Venezuela, or further cuts from other producers, a significant surplus is likely to re-emerge in the first quarter of 2026,” the IEA said. “For now, bloated balances provide some comfort to market participants and have kept prices in check.”

    Supply has risen faster than demand mostly because OPEC+, or the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, began boosting output in April 2025 after years of cuts. Other producers, such as the U.S., Guyana, and Brazil, have also increased production.

    OPEC+ has, however paused its output hikes for the first quarter of 2026. For the whole year, the market faces an implied surplus of 3.69 million bpd, the IEA’s latest figures indicated a downward revision from 3.84 million bpd in last month’s report.

    In response, Ecuador’s energy minister said Colombian crude being transported on the OCP pipeline – Ecuador’s second-largest – would face ‘reciprocity’,

    Helping to erode the surplus forecast, the IEA revised up its prediction for world oil demand growth by 70,000 bpd to 930,000 bpd, citing what it called a normalisation of economic conditions after last year’s tariff turmoil, and lower oil prices than a year ago.

    The IEA said it is too early to assess the full implications of all the latest geopolitical developments on the oil market, but said the U.S. blockade on Venezuelan oil shipments had lowered exports by 580,000 bpd from December to early January.

    The surplus will build up in the first quarter in particular as that is when global oil refiners carry out planned shutdowns and demand is lower.

    “With seasonal refinery maintenance about to commence, reducing demand for crude, further reductions in crude production will be needed,” the Paris-based IEA said.

    Rival forecaster OPEC expects faster demand growth than the IEA, predicting oil use will rise by 1.38 million bpd this year. OPEC’s data indicate a near balance between supply and demand in 2026, according to a Reuters calculation, rather than a surplus.

    On supply, the IEA revised its global growth forecast for this year higher, to 2.5 million bpd from around 2.4 million bpd in December, saying around 52 per cent of the growth will come from outside OPEC+.

  • Oil rises to $64 on Iran-related disruptions, Venezuela supply

    Oil rises to $64 on Iran-related disruptions, Venezuela supply

    Brent hit $64 per barrel yesterday as oil prices surged over multiple market-related concerns, including risks of Iran-related supply disruptions and uncertainties over the future of supply in Venezuela returning to focus.

    In the fresh price surge, the Brent price rose to $64.01 per barrel, up 0.7 per cent after closing at $63.55 on Monday. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $59.83 per barrel, up around 0.8 per cent from the previous close of $59.35.

    Reports that the US President Donald Trump has been briefed on options beyond conventional air strikes against Iran, including cyber and psychological operations, amid ongoing protests strengthened geopolitical risk perceptions in the markets.

    Officials said the potential operations could target Iran’s command structure, communications networks and state-controlled media, but stressed that no final decision has been made and that diplomatic channels remain open.

    White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has said Trump’s priority on Iran is diplomacy, while noting that the military option remains on the table.

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    These developments have raised concerns that escalating tensions in the Middle East, home to a significant share of global oil reserves, could disrupt supply, putting upward pressure on prices.

    Trump’s announcement that countries trading with Iran would face a 25% tariff in their trade with the US described as “firm and final” has further increased market uncertainty. Experts warn that such tariffs could heighten the risk of a trade war that may weigh on global growth and reignite inflation.

    Meanwhile, Trump said talks with Caracas were “going very well” following the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, adding that the purchase of 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil is on the agenda and that $4.2 billion worth of oil is already en route to the US.

    He also said he was dissatisfied with Exxon’s stance on Venezuelan oil projects and was considering excluding the company from oil tenders in the country.

    Experts say these remarks are being interpreted by investors as a sign that Venezuela’s investment environment remains unpredictable and commercial uncertainties persist.

    This could prompt foreign investors to act more cautiously, limiting medium- and long-term production growth expectations and weakening supply growth prospects.

    Concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) also remain in focus. Former Fed chairs stressed that the central bank’s independence is critical for economic performance, describing the reported “criminal investigation” involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell as an unprecedented attempt to undermine that independence through prosecutorial channels.

    While the market impact of the investigation has so far been limited, analysts expect debates over the Fed’s institutional independence to be among the main themes for financial markets this year.

    Rising concerns over Fed independence are supporting oil prices in the short term, while medium-term gains are being capped by economic uncertainty and risks to the demand outlook.

  • Turning reforms to tangible gains

    Turning reforms to tangible gains

    Nigeria’s energy sector this year appears set for a significant transformation, with expected unprecedented stability in the downstream petroleum sector due to domestic refining and a strong push for renewable energy investment. The overall outlook is cautiously optimistic, contingent on effective policy execution and infrastructure development, writes MUYIWA LUCAS and AMBROSE NNAJI.

    The country’s energy sector is looking up to a promising year ahead. After years of production slumps, underinvestment and policy uncertainty, in the closing quarters of 2025, increased crude oil output, improved security conditions in parts of the Niger Delta, regulatory certainty under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) gaining traction and operational activity picking up across segments of the value chain, were precursors to hopes for the sector in 2026. The momentum garnered in may have since set the tone for high expectations this year in the sector.

    Stakeholders and economists are optimistic that the oil and gas sector will significantly contribute to Nigeria’s GDP growth and positive external account balance through increased exports. This is why they call for more public-private partnerships (PPPs) and technology transfer to overcome financial and technical hurdles.

    While 2026 looks promising for incremental recovery in the sector, it however hinges heavily on resolving security issues and fully leveraging the PIA to boost investment and output.

    Oil and Gas

    The upstream production is expected to witness modest production growth, driven by infrastructure improvements, pipeline security and gas monetization. While government targets hitting 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) production output, analysts remain conservative with a forecast of around 1.7-1.8 mbpd. They however hope that this will get higher following potential restarts of oilfields in Ogoni.

    The implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and renewed upstream investment will equally impact on the sector this year.

    In the downstream sector, the steady operation of the Dangote Refinery is expected to be a major factor, potentially supplying 60 per cent to 75 per cent of national fuel needs from domestic sources in Q1 2026. This is projected to ease pressure on foreign reserves and stabilise petrol pricing within a band of N800 to N900 per liter.

    The anticipated glut in the oil market, following the US action in Venezuela, will further keep petrol prices steady barring any government policy that may lead otherwise, like the implementation of the 15 per cent ad valorem tax on petrol.

    This fear has been further confirmed by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which forecasts a record high glut in the crude oil market this year, with supply outpacing demand growth by a staggering 3.84 million barrels per day. This oversupply dynamic is the primary headwind, driving prices down and compressing the revenue potential for incremental barrels.

    This is why analysts at AInvest submit that the global oil market is entering 2026 with a fundamental imbalance that directly threatens the value of any new production, including Nigeria’s.

    “The policy environment is volatile and reactive. While OPEC+ has paused its planned output hikes for the first quarter of 2026, the group still maintains a significant 3.24 million barrels per day of output cuts in place. This creates a precarious balancing act where the market is held in check by a large but potentially adjustable floor of supply. The group’s cohesion is tested by internal tensions, yet its decisions will be the key variable in determining whether the glut is absorbed or deepens.

    “This oversupply is already pressuring prices. The IEA’s forecast suggests the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $55 per barrel in 2026. For a producer like Nigeria, this means the economic value of its production gains is being severely undermined. Even if output increases, the revenue per barrel is forecast to decline, turning a potential upside into a muted or even negative financial outcome. The bottom line is that external market forces are creating a structural ceiling on oil prices, making it exceptionally difficult for new supply to find profitable demand,” the AInvest editorial team argued.

    NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, described the 2026 outlook as encouraging, citing improved asset integrity, reactivation of shut-in wells and better coordination with security agencies.

    “The direction of travel is positive,” Ojulari said, projecting gradual progress toward the government’s medium-term ambition of crossing two million barrels per day.

    Yet analysts caution that production targets alone do not tell the full story. The experience of 2025 exposed persistent vulnerabilities beneath the recovery numbers. Improved surveillance and community engagement reduced crude oil theft, but claims of near-total success remain largely unverified.

    For government officials and industry operators, these developments signal a sector regaining its footing. For independent analysts and economists, however, the recovery remains fragile, uneven and vulnerable to reversal.

    “Recovery must not be mistaken for transformation,” Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Abuja, Wumi Iledare, warned.

    According to him, the defining question for 2026 is not whether Nigeria can produce more oil or gas in the short term, but whether it can finally build the institutional discipline needed to sustain performance.

    This tension—between optimism and realism—frames expectations for Nigeria’s oil and gas industry in 2026. The year is shaping up less as a moment for dramatic breakthroughs than as a test of consolidation: securing hard-won gains, closing governance gaps, and proving that reforms can outlive political cycles and headlines.

    “In 2026, the industry must move from administrative estimates to independently auditable measurement systems. Investors, lenders and fiscal authorities need credible data, not optimistic approximations,” Iledare insists.

    According to Iledare, there is also growing pressure for rig activity to translate into actual barrels. Growth figures inflated by low base effects—following years of suppressed production—will no longer suffice. Expectations for 2026 he notes include disciplined capital deployment, prioritisation of brownfield assets and predictable evacuation infrastructure, without these, upstream optimism risks remaining fragile.

    Global concerns

    Yet, there are concerns of global market glut which the country is not immuned against. This concern has been further accentuated by the US takeover of Venezuela oil sector. This further exacerbates the global supply shock that deepens the existing price glut. Energy markets enter 2026 in a downbeat mood, with the International Energy Agency forecasting supply to exceed demand in 2026 by a head-spinning 3.85 million barrels per day.

    This oversupply dynamic is the dominant threat. AInvest argued that a failure of OPEC+ cohesion or a geopolitical shock, such as a Russia-Ukraine peace deal could further increase global supply. It noted that the group has already paused output hikes for the first quarter of 2026, but the underlying tension over production quotas remains. “If a peace deal materialises and sanctions on Russia ease, it would add another significant source of crude to an already glutted market, putting severe downward pressure on prices. For Nigeria, which is trying to boost output to two million b/d, this would be a direct blow to its fiscal and economic recovery plans,” AInvest said.

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    Gas

    While fossil fuels will remain central to Nigeria’s economy in 2026, energy transition pressures are reshaping strategy. Gas-to-power projects, petrochemicals and decarbonisation initiatives are increasingly paired with traditional oil and gas operations.

    Regulatory policies, evolving carbon markets and global investment trends are gradually pushing some capital toward lower-carbon solutions—even as producers maintain core hydrocarbon businesses.

    For Nigeria, analysts say the challenge is balance: leveraging oil and gas for development while preparing for a more carbon-constrained global energy system.

    In the aspect of gas infrastructure, a pivotal milestone for the year is the anticipated commissioning and “first gas” of the OB3 gas pipeline, which would unlock significant east-west gas balancing and boost supply to power plants.

    Besides, the government is expected to continue to prioritise major gas projects like the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) pipeline as well as developing midstream and downstream infrastructure to enhance energy security. 

    Power and Renewables

    Government is working with partners, including the UN and the Dutch government, and has secured a $1.1 billion facility from the African Development Bank (AfDB) to expand electricity access by the end of 2026.

    Although the national grid experienced relative stability last year, improvement is still expected to be sustained in this regard. The government aims to add 4,000 MW of electricity generation capacity in 2026, a critical step to address persistent shortfalls; current generation hovers around 4,000-5,000 MW from an installed capacity of over 12,000 MW.

    Renewable energy growth

    The renewables and clean energy sector is projected to grow at a CAGR of 13.2 per cent from 2021 to 2026. The Federal Government has pledged massive investment in this area, building on the “Renewed Hope Solarisation Programme” to provide power to unserved and underserved communities.

    Metering and grid modernisation

    There is a significant push for rapid deployment of smart meters to close the metering gap, a key trend in modernising Nigeria’s power infrastructure. The government intends for 2026 to be a pivotal year in closing the national metering deficit, which stood at over five million customers without meters as of late 2025.

    This year, through the Presidential Metering Initiative (PMI) and the Distribution Sector Recovery Programme (DISREP), which aim to provide millions of free meters, government aims to close the metering gap.  The PMI is a high-priority, direct presidential intervention with secured funding of approximately N700 billion from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) to roll out an estimated two million meters annually for five years, with an overall target of installing up to 18 million meters.

    DISREP, an initiative backed by a $500 million World Bank loan, targets delivery of over 3.2 million meters by the end of 2026 through various procurement models, including international competitive bidding (ICB) and national competitive bidding (NCB).

    The combined efforts of the PMI and DISREP are expected to significantly accelerate the pace of meter installations beyond previous years’ averages.

    Challenges

    Yet, the challenges of resolving liquidity issues and outstanding debts to gas producers, managing potential global oil price volatility and mitigating the risks of pipeline sabotage stares the country and sector in the face this year. Experts say overcoming these is hinged on disciplined policy execution, transparency in subsidy management and attracting foreign direct investment (FDI).

    Still, 2026 is shaping up as a test of institutions. According to stakeholders, strong regulatory guardrails, empowered boards and accountable leadership are no longer optional. Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, they argued, is too strategic to be managed through episodic interventions or personality-driven reforms.

    “The lesson from 2025 is clear. Announcements do not substitute for institutions. Recovery without endurance is reversible,” Iledare said.

    The road ahead

    As 2026 unfolds, expectations for Nigeria’s oil and gas industry are sober but demanding. Though his is attainable, but there are things to be done: Consolidate security gains; anchor production recovery structurally; govern downstream reforms with neutrality; deliver gas infrastructure with discipline; translate barrels into revenue.

    “Above all, let institutions—not slogans or short-term targets—drive outcomes. If 2025 was about re-anchoring, 2026 must be about proof: proof that Nigeria’s oil and gas sector can finally sustain progress- quietly, credibly and consistently,” Iledare admonished.

  • Oil up 1% as market assesses Venezuela upheaval

    Oil up 1% as market assesses Venezuela upheaval

    Oil prices jumped by about one per cent yesterday as traders assessed the possible impact on crude oil following the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela.

    Brent crude futures were up 55 cents, or 0.9 per cent per cent, at $61.30 a barrel U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 64 cents, or 1.1 per cent, to $57.96.

    The benchmarks have crept in and out of negative territory in European trading as markets digested news that the U.S. had captured Venezuela’s leader and that Washington would take control of the OPEC member, crude exports of which had been under a U.S. embargo that remains in place.

    In a global market with plentiful oil supply, analysts said that any further disruption to Venezuela’s exports would have little immediate impact on prices.

    Venezuelan oil output has plummeted in recent decades, curbed by mismanagement and a lack of foreign investment after the nationalisation of oil operations in the 2000s.

    Read Also: Venezuela orders nationwide manhunt for supporters of Maduro’s arrest

    Output averaged about one million barrels per day last year, equating to about one per cent of global production. Venezuela’s acting President  offered on Sunday to cooperate with the United States.

    “This reduces the risk for an extended embargo on Venezuelan oil exports, with oil potentially flowing freely out of Venezuela before too long,” said SEB analysts.

    “The oil market is faced with a surplus unrelated to Venezuela. We can see why the market may focus on the bearish angle of more barrels out of Venezuela; we just do not see that happening quickly,” said Bernstein analysts.

    Trump also raised the possibility of further U.S. interventions, suggesting Colombia and Mexico could face military action if they did not reduce the flow of illicit drugs. Analysts are also awaiting Iranian reaction to Trump’s threat on Friday to intervene in a crackdown on protests in the OPEC producer.

    Elsewhere, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decided to maintain their output on Sunday.

  • Riding on policy execution, investment drive 

    Riding on policy execution, investment drive 

    The oil and gas sector grew in leaps and bounds in the outgoing year. Notably, crude oil production significantly improved, with Nigeria meeting her OPEC+ quota after years of failing in this regard. This feat, among other successes recorded, is hinged on detailed and targeted reforms, particularly, the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, MUYIWA LUCAS writes.

    Nigeria’s 2025 oil and gas sector began on a cautious optimism, driven by regulatory reforms Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, increased indigenous participation and ambitious oil production targets of 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd).

    With this were associated rising gas focus and new investments which were expected despite persistent security challenges and past refinery operational issues. But with deeper upstream investment, new tax incentives, growing gas utilisation and enhanced security efforts, some measure of significant foreign direct investments (FDI) were attained. Key policies put in place with a focus on unlocking dormant assets via “drill or drop” initiative, were also instrumental in shaping the industry.

    Therefore, for observers and players in the country’s oil and gas sector, this year may after all be one to applaud owing to the quantum of achievements recorded.

    The sector, in the outgoing year, showed strong resilience with oil production hitting 1.8 million barrels per day. This feat was attained following a combination of several factors- sharp reduction in oil theft, pipeline vandalism and regulatory efficiency. In 2021, the average daily crude oil losses stood at 102,900 barrels per day or 37.6 million barrels per year. However, due to the combined efforts of security forces as well as the collaborative effort of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the nefarious activities were curtailed, reducing it by 90 per cent to specifically 9,600bpd as at September 2025.

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    Similarly, rig count significantly increased this year, reaching 69 compared to eight as at 2021,    representing a 762.5 per cent increase. A breakdown of this includes 40 active, eight standby, five warm stack, four cold stack, 12 in transit.  The increase is believed to be a reflection of renewed activity and investor confidence in the nation’s oil and gas sector.

    The “Project One Million Barrels” initiative has equally raised daily crude oil production to between 1.7 and 1.83 million barrels per day, with a notable increase of 300,000 barrels per day in July 2025.

    Besides, the launched of an initiative- Cost Efficiency Incentive, in June 2025, which offered tax credits of up to 20 per cent for operators who achieve lifting costs below benchmark levels ($25–$40/barrel), also served as great incentive to the improved production output.

    Although the year witnessed more divestments by the International Oil Companies (IOCs), it nonetheless unlocked huge new investments amounting to over $5.5 billion in Final Investment Decisions (FIDs). It equally increased local ownership of oil assets, even as their operations boosted production by 200,000 bpd. Still, enforcement of stricter rules for asset transfers secured billions in decommissioning funds and positioned indigenous players like Seplat and Oando for growth, signaling a shift towards a localised, resilient energy sector.

    Still, the 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery, though faced early operational setbacks and regulatory disputes early in the year, but rebounded strongly. The refinery, which presently operates at about 85 per cent installed capacity, has been very instrumental in reducing fuel imports by 60 per cent and saving the country up to $15 billion in foreign exchange annually.

    It has also been cheery news for the country in the aspect of gas production. As of this mid-year, Nigeria had achieved its natural gas reserve target of 210 trillion cubic feet. Gas flaring fell to 7.16 per cent in July 2025, while daily gas production rose to 7.59 billion standard cubic feet per day (BSCFD). The simultaneous growth in output and decline in flaring underscores the Commission’s drive to boost production while advancing its 2030 zero-flare commitment.

    In terms of Domestic Gas Delivery Obligation (DGDO) performance, the sector delivered 72.5 per cent in July 2025, up from 71.8 per cent in June. DGDO performance stood at 72.2% in January, rose to 73.5 per cent in February, dipped slightly to 70.8 per cent in March, before climbing again to 73.7 per cent and 73.0 per cent in April and May, respectively.

    The AKK (Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano) Gas Pipeline project is in its final stages, reaching around 86 per cent completion as of mid-2025, with major works nearly done and mechanical delivery targeted for last month. Key milestones, like crossing the River Niger, were achieved in mid-2025, with the focus now on system testing and final infrastructure installation for the 614km pipeline.

    The Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline project valued at $25 billion, made significant strides, establishing a dedicated project company, completing crucial technical/feasibility studies and confirming the pipeline route, securing interest from international financiers and preparing for the Final Investment Decision (FID).

    However, despite these production gains, oil revenue slumped by 23.9 per cent in June 2025 due to global price volatility and Asian demand shifts. This perhaps account for the N16.20 trillion shortfall or 63.49 per cent shortfall in government earning in its projected oil revenue target in the first half of the outgoing year.

    According to the second quarter Budget Performance Report released by the Budget Office last week, gross oil revenue of N9.32 trillion was recorded between January and June 2025, a figure way below the N25.52tr pro-rated budget projection for the period. Data from the report also indicated that average crude oil production stood at 1.68 million barrels per day, below the budget benchmark of 2.12mbpd, with significant revenue implications for the Federation Account.

    Interestingly, despite the revenue shortfall, the oil sector still rallied the country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 4.23 per cent in the second quarter of 2025- its highest quarterly growth rate since Q2 2021. This surge is attributed to a boost in crude oil production, with Nigeria pumping an average of 1.68 million barrels per day during the quarter. That figure is significantly higher than the 1.41 million barrels per day produced in Q2 2024 and above the 1.62 million barrels per day recorded in Q1 2025.

    The sector is moving towards greater sustainability, efficiency and indigenous participation, balancing energy security needs with global transition goals, with 2025 marking a period of significant policy execution and investment drive.

  • Africa needs $100b in refining investment as oil demand soars

    Africa needs $100b in refining investment as oil demand soars

    Africa’s crude oil demand is set to more than double to 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2050, which will need more than $100 billion in investment in refining over the next decades, according to the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA).  

    Thanks to population growth, urbanisation, and industrialisation, Africa’s crude oil consumption is expected to jump from 1.8 million bpd to as much as 4.5 million bpd by 2050, ARDA Executive Secretary, Anibor Kragha, said, according to African news outlets.

    The expected surge in demand positions Africa’s refining industry as one of the world’s biggest untapped investment frontiers, according to the association.

    Despite the growth in consumption, Africa remains reliant on fuel imports, which expose many of the countries on the continent to price swings, supply disruptions, and reduction of their foreign exchange (forex) reserves, ARDA’s Kragha said. “Downstream investment has stagnated even as upstream production grows, leaving Africa stuck in the costly paradox of exporting crude and importing refined products at a premium,” ARDA’s Kragha said.

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    To boost domestic fuel supply, Africa will need more than $100 billion in upgrades of mothballed or dilapidated refineries, expansion of existing refining capacity, and new greenfield projects to supply fuels, the group said. 

    But a key hurdle to Africa-made fuels is the lack of harmonized fuel specifications, Kragha noted, adding that out of 54 countries on the continent, as many as 46 maintain various national fuel standards. All these mean there are 12 different gasoline and 11 diesel varieties being sold across the continent.

    “Africa’s downstream sector is one of the world’s last large-scale, high-growth energy investment frontiers. The demand curve is defined by demographics. The supply deficit is structural. The capital requirement exceeds $100 billion. And the economic upside is transformative,” Kragha said.

  • 2025 oil bid portal opens December 1

    2025 oil bid portal opens December 1

    The 2025 Oil bid licence round is set to commence on December 1, 2025. The Commission Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, an engineer, who made this disclosure in a statement by the Commission’s Head of media, Eniola Akinkuotu, promised to deliver a transparent 2025 licensing round even as he revealed that the Bid portal would go live on the NUPRC’s website on December 1, 2025.

    He further stated that the licensing round will undergo two stages. First will be the technical phase and then those who scale through will progress to the commercial phase.

    The NUPRC boss stated this when executives of Ludoil Energy of Italy visited the Commission’s corporate headquarters in Abuja on Thursday.

    He said: “The portal for the licensing round will go live on December 1. The licensing round will be transparent and fair in line with the provisions of the PIA, 2021. We do not discriminate. We invite all potential investors to participate.

     “The process will be digitised such that winners would know immediately after the exercise whether they won or not. There is no bureaucracy involve,”Komolafe said.

    According to him, the Petroleum Industry Act had restored confidence in Nigeria’s energy sector and provided a stable regulatory atmosphere.

    The NUPRC boss therefore, told the Ludoil Energy executives that this was the best time to invest in Nigeria.

    He argued that with over 37 billion barrels of proven oil reserves as well as its current status as Africa’s largest crude oil producer, Nigeria remained the best place in Africa to invest.

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    Komolafe further noted that with a coastline of over 853km, Nigeria had a strategic advantage of its crude getting to the European market even faster than that of the United States.

    The NUPRC helmsman, therefore, called on investors to take advantage of this opportunity.

    In his remarks, the Group Chief Technical Officer, LudoilEnergy SPA, Mr. Paolo Fedeli, said the company is presently operating in the Republic of Congo but was seeking to expand its footprint in Africa, starting with Nigeria because of its potential as Africa’s largest oil producer. Fedeli added that Ludoil Energy was keen on participating in the 2025 licensing round.

     “We are seeing Nigeria as our next target for growth because Nigeria is the largest producer in Africa. Your next round of licensing is an opportunity for us,” Fedeli said.