The November 26 governorship election in Ondo State has been generating interest across the country. From the beginning, the All Progressives Congress (APC) got it wrong during its primary. At the last minute, the situation in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) worsened with the substitution of Mr. Eyitayo Jegede’s name with that of Mr Jimoh Ibrahim as the flag bearer. Correspondent DAMISI OJO looks at the chances of the candidates and how the crisis in the two major parties may tilt the pendulum in favour of the flag bearer of the Alliance of Democracy (AD), Chief Olusola Oke.
WITH less than three weeks to the Ondo State governorship election, the gladiators are in a fierce battle for the Alagbaka Government House. For the first time, the people are witnessing serious campaigns by the political parties. The candidates have introduced house-to-house campaigns, radio-television jingles, fliers, imposing posters and billboards.
Even in taxi cabs and commercial buses, contestants are using their foot soldiers to convince the electorate on the need to vote for them to make a difference.
Twenty-eight parties are in the race for the November 26 poll. But, only four are considered serious contenders. They are: Rotimi Akeredolu (SAN) of the All Progressives Congress (APC); Olusola Oke of the Alliance for Democracy (AD); Jimoh Ibrahim of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); and Olu Agunloye of the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
Those considered as fringe candidates are: Mrs Oluyi Folasade Helen (the African Peoples Alliance (APA); Gbenga Arigbede (the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP); Stephen Adeuti (the Labour Party (LP); Oyeleye Fasua (the Citizen Popular Party (CPP); Mrs Olagbegi Orunmoluyi (the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN); and Mrs Falana Julianah (the Democratic People Party (DPP).
Others include: Adeeyo Matthew (the Democratic Peoples Congress (DPC); Oluwadare Bada (the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP); Odedeyi John (the Hope Democratic Party (HDP); Ayibiowu Ige (the National Unity Party (NUP); Mrs Funmilayo Jenyo (the Better Nigeria Progressive Party (BNPP); and Adeniran Adeniyi (the Young Democratic Party (YDP).
The political temperature in Ondo State is getting to a feverish level, following the crisis rocking the two major parties. The intra-party crisis is a fall-out of their shadow polls.
The crisis within the PDP is the deepest. Few days ago, it was the former Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice, Mr. Eyitayo Jegede (SAN) that was recognized by INEC as the authentic candidate of the party. But, with the recent Abuja Federal High Court judgment that insisted that Ibrahim is the party’s authentic candidate, INEC had to substitute Jegede’s name with that of Ibrahim.
Jegede, an indigene of Akure, has the full backing of Mimiko who in spite of criticisms preferred Jegede to any other aspirant in the Markafi’s camp of the PDP. The duo is from the same Ondo Central District that has dominated the seat for almost eight years. The insistence of Mimiko had truncated the zoning arrangement that had been in place since the return to civil rule in 1999. The ‘Akure Agenda’, which threw up Jegede as the candidate of the Mimiko-led faction, is backed by the Akure traditional ruler, Oba Ogunlade Aladetoyinbo.
Before his name was removed from the list of candidates, Jegede had embarked on a sophisticated and decentralised campaign, especially in the central district. His branded campaign vehicles were all over the state, putting up banners and posters distributing stickers and other souvenirs generously to prospective voters.
Ironically, it was the same day the Akure High Court presided over by Justice Rotimi Olamide directed that Jegede’s name should not be replaced that Justice Okon Abang of the Federal High Court in Abuja ruled that INEC should substitute Jegede’s name with that of the business magnate, Ibrahim.
There was initial jubilation in Akure over the Akure court judgment, as many of Jegede’s supporters defied the rain and trooped out to celebrate. But, it was short-lived, following counter directive from Abuja that Ibrahim is the authentic candidate.
With the announcement, a pandemonium was let loose in Akure, the Ondo State capital. Protests broke out in the capital as early as 7.00 am the following morning. It was masterminded by members of the National Union of Road Transport Workers’ Union (NURTW); they burned tyres on major highways and disrupted the peace of the city.
With the current state of affairs, who will carry the day? Is it Akeredolu, Ibrahim, Oke or Agunloye?
Akeredolu
The former Nigeria Bar Association (NBA) President was also the governorship candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in 2012. Thus, his political structure is still intact. Some of his supporters have however left the APC, following the crisis that rocked the party after the primary.
The economic crunch in the country, which has inflicted a bad image on the APC as a party, may affect his chances; as many people are of the opinion that President Muhammadu Buhari has not done enough to alleviate the suffering of the masses who voted overwhelmingly for him last year.
Akeredolu may not do well in Ondo Central, although some bigwigs are backing him in the zone. They include: the senator representing the district, Chief Tayo Alasoadura; former lawmaker, Ifedayo Abegunde (Abena); and the immediate past senator representing the district, Dr Ayo Akinyelure.
The APC flag bearer is the candidate to beat in Owo because he hails from the town. In Owo/Ose federal constituency, he would sweep the polls. The two other federal constituencies are in Akokoland. They are: Akoko Northeast/Akoko Northwest and Akoko Southeast/Southwest. The Akokos, who are in majority in the North District, have long been clamouring for one of their sons or daughters to emerge as the governor.
Unfortunately, notable politicians from the area are not happy over the emergence of Akeredolu as the flag bearer and therefore, they may not back him in the November 26 contest. Otherwise, the whole Ondo North would have been a smooth sail for the APC. Two of the aggrieved APC governorship aspirants are from the area. They are: Segun Abraham, who was the first runner-up in the primary, and Senator Ajayi Boroffice who came fourth.
While Akeredolu may garner more votes in Owo/Ose axis, the support for him in Akoko is not certain, due to the fact that the AD’s flag bearer, Olusola Oke picked his running mate from the area. The fact that Agunloye, the SDP candidate, is an indigene of Erusu-Akoko will elicit the sympathy of many of his kinsmen and women.
The supporters of Abraham may gravitate towards AD during the election. It is believed that many supporters of Boroffice are also with Oke.
Ondo South has six local government areas: Ile-Oluji/Oke-igbo, Odigbo, Irele, Okitipupa, Ilaje and Ese-Odo. In past elections, the votes from the area have always been in favour of the PDP. For instance, the only senator in the Red Chamber on the platform of the PDP, Senator Yele Omogunwa, is from the district, while all the House of Representatives members from the district are also on the PDP platform. So, the Akeredolu Campaign Organisation has more work to do in the zone.
Oke, who is from the riverine Ilaje community of Ilowo, is widely expected to clear the votes in Ondo South District.
Nevertheless, the fact that Akeredolu’s running mate, Agboola Ajayi, is from the area will be a boost for the APC flag bearer. Ajayi is a former member of the House of Representatives and he is not a push-over in the politics of the area. Akeredolu also enjoys the support of the late Agagu’s brother, Femi Agagu and other APC bigwigs in the area, including Princess Oladunni Odu, Ajose Kudehinbu, Olu Bajowa and lucky Aiyedatiwa.
Observers believe the acrimony in the APC may affect the fortune of its candidate, but reconciliation and mass mobilisation of voters are on-going. The defection of Oke with his supporters may have an adverse effect on the APC.
Ibrahim
The fate of the PDP still hangs in the balance because of the intractable crisis rocking the party over the choice of its flag bearer. If the appeal filed by Jegede is not determined before November 26 or if it goes against the Mimiko-led faction, chances are that PDP supporters may resolve to back another candidate and scuttle the ambition of Ibrahim to govern the state.
Ondo Central has the largest number of registered voters in the state and Akure metropolis has a large chunk on the list. Indications are that, with the emergence of the business mogul as the PDP candidate, the zone may vote against the PDP candidate. Going by the latest slogan ‘no Jegede, no vote in Akure’, indigenes of the capital city may stand aloof and allow non-indigenes to vote for candidates of their choice. Thus, it might be harvest of votes for the APC and the AD candidates.
Besides, Ibrahim has no political structure. If the PDP is compelled to field the business magnet, there is the possibility of protest votes against the candidate of the Sheriff’s camp of the party in Ondo.
Irrespective of who is contesting the election, Ibrahim or Jegede, the APC may have an upper hand in Ondo North District, because its candidate hails from the zone. The district has always been a no-go area for the PDP and other parties. Its residents are purely progressives. This is based on the legacies of the likes of the late Pa Adekunle Ajasin and Adebayo Adefarati, also of blessed memory. They imbibed the spirit of progressivism and impacted it on their people in the up north.
However, the influence of the Deputy Governor Lasisi Oluboyo, Saka Lawal, Bamiduro Dada, Fatai Adams and others will boost the overall result of the PDP candidate in the area.
Ibrahim may garner some reasonable votes from Ondo South District, where he hails from. The businessman is from Igbotako, Okitipupa Local Government Area and his people will vote for him, though he has no political structure in the zone.
Some key PDP stalwarts in the area will back him to ensure that their son wins the poll. People in the South District, particularly from Ilaje axis, are not happy with the Mimiko administration. They say their area is marginalised, despite the fact that it is “the hen that lays the golden eggs”.
Oke
Oke is a successful legal practitioner and a former governorship aspirant on the APC platform. But, he dumped the party after the emergence of Akeredolu as its candidate. Oke petitioned the primary election appeal which recommended a fresh primary for the contestants, because of undeniable irregularities. The National Working Committee (NWC) was to effect the conduct of the re-run primary, but the APC National Chairman Chief John Odigie-Oyegun overruled it and this prompted the former National Legal Adviser of the PDP to leave the party and join AD, where was promptly offered the party’s governorship ticket.
Oke was also the governorship candidate of the PDP in the 2012 poll; contesting against Mimiko who ran on the platform of Labour Party (LP) then and Akeredolu of the defunct ACN.
The Ilowo-born politician has been described as a grassroots man and has been harvesting many supporters from the APC and PDP, because of their disputed primaries.
His strength in the Ondo Central District rests solely on the fact that the leader of the party in Ondo State, Dr. Olowookere, is an indigene of Akure. He has the structure to boost Oke’s chances in the six local government areas in the district.
Besides, Oke is banking on some prominent politicians that were formerly in the APC, but moved with him to the AD. Many of them are still operating secretly, using their resources to ensure that the AD flag bearer gets good votes from the largest senatorial district where the bulk of the votes will come from.
Among those from the Ondo Central working for Oke are the Director-General of his campaign organisation and former Special Adviser to Osun State governor, Mr. Bola Ilori; the former Chief Press Secretary (CPS) to Governor Mimiko), now a lawyer, Mr. Kolawole Olabisi, who is the chairman, Media and Publicity Committee for the AD; and the former Commissioner for Transport, Otunba Omoniyi Omodara.
One of the strategies that may work for Oke in Ondo North is the fact that his running mate, Ganny Dauda, is from the zone. The people of Akoko, who constitute the majority in the district, are aggrieved and since the two strongest political parties have not favoured them in the choice of the governorship flag bearers, they may vote for Oke, because of his deputy, who is from the area.
Dauda is a popular grassroots politician in Akokoland and the entire northern district. He is a former local government chairman and later a lawmaker representing Akoko Northeast/Northwest at the House of Representatives. Besides, many aggrieved supporters of Senator Ajayi Boroffice have thrown their weight behind Oke for the November 26 contest.
The bulk of the votes for Oke will come from Ondo South District, where he hails from. The AD candidate will have the sympathy of his people at the polls. The factional PDP candidate’s running mate, John Ola Mafo, is from the zone. Mafo, a former Commissioner for Information, is from Ilaje axis.
The perceived marginalisation of the zone under the current Mimiko administration will also spur many voters in the district to vote for Oke. The Muslims may also back him, because his running mate is of their faith.
With PDP wracked by internal crisis and the APC unable to settle its internal problems, Oke seems to be the man to beat in the election.
Agunloye
The former Minister and Chief Executive of the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) is a former governorship aspirant under the defunct ACN. The Erusu-Akoko born politician has been oiling his campaign machineries for the race to Alagbaka House. Already, he has secured the support of his home base, especially the backing by the influential Akoko Consultative Forum (ACF), led by Prince Festus Obaude. The group has been running a campaign forum for Agunloye. It has also been meeting stakeholders, including traditional rulers from the area on the need to support Agunloye whose party has no crisis like the major parties.
Agunloye’s undoing however is that he may not have much backing in the other two senatorial districts, Ondo Central and Ondo South. He has tried to boost his chances by making a popular woman politician, Erelu Modupe Akindele-Martins, his running mate.
Akindele-Martins is a former ACN women leader in the state. Since her emergence as the SDP deputy governorship candidate, the Okitipupa-born politician and socialite has been attracting lots of women to the AD camp. Women have a considerable large voting strength in the state.
The AD may also reap from the fact that the two major parties, the APC and the PDP, are in disarray over their disputed primaries may work in Agunloye’s favour. Before their September 3 primary election, the APC was fortified, strong and believed to be the party to beat in the November 26 Ondo governorship. Its secretariat, near the Catholic Cathedral in Akure, was always a beehive of activities.
But, few days to the shadow election when it was rumoured that one of the aspirants had been adopted, a group of people under the aegis of Movement Against Imposition (MAI) marched on the streets to protest against the development. This later degenerated into the purported sack of the party state chairman, Mr. Isaac Kekemeke by the MAI, which forced the former Secretary to the State Government (SSG) to remove all his properties in the secretariat and started running the party from his personal residence.
The factionalisation is even worse within the PDP. The unhealthy rivalry between the Senator Ahmed Markafi-led group and the one led by Senator Ali Modu Sheriff at the national level has deeply affected the chances of the ruling party in the state.
The party conducted two primaries, one in Akure and the other in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital. At last, INEC recognized Ibrahim who emerged as the flag bearer of the Sheriff camp during the Ibadan primary as the authentic candidate of the PDP. This development has dimmed the chances of the party, which was hitherto running a robust campaign for Jegede, who is regarded as a political son of Mimiko. This has saddened many supporters of the party and will no doubt affect the PDP in the election; many aggrieved supporters have vowed to stay at home on election day, rather than give their votes to Ibrahim.
The fall out of the acrimony within the two major political parties may be a blessing in disguise for AD.
