Tag: OPEC

Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) has indicated it would likely maintain steady oil output despite political tensions between key members Saudi Arabia and the UAE and the United States capture of the President Venezuela.

The assurance was given yesterday after a meeting by eight members of OPEC+, which pumps about half the world’s oil. This comes after oil prices fell more than 18 per cent in 2025-  their steepest yearly drop since 2020 -amid growing oversupply concerns.

The eight countries- Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – raised oil output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December 2025, equal to almost three per cent of world oil demand.

They agreed in November to pause output hikes for January, February and March. The meeting on yesterday is unlikely to make any changes to that policy, according to Reuters citing three OPEC+ sources.

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE flared last month over a decade-long conflict in Yemen, when a UAE-aligned group seized territory from the Saudi-backed government. The crisis triggered the biggest split in decades between the former close allies, as years of divergence on critical issues came to a head.

OPEC has in the past managed to overcome serious internal rifts, such as over the Iran–Iraq War, by prioritising market management over political disputes. Yet the group is facing numerous crises, with Russian oil exports pressured due to U.S. sanctions over its war in Ukraine, and Iran facing protests and U.S. threats of intervention.

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On Saturday, the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of the country until a transition to a new administration becomes possible, without saying how this would be achieved.

Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves, bigger even than those of OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia, but its oil production has plummeted due to years of mismanagement and sanctions.

Analysts said it is unlikely to see any meaningful boost to crude output for years, even if U.S. oil majors do invest the billions of dollars in the country that Trump promised.

But fears are still rife of oil price facing huge volatility in the coming days following the arrest of the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, by the United States of America. The arrest, market indices pointed at, already led to massive market volatility in the energy sector as traders weigh the risk of civil war against a potential oil recovery.

The fears are right. Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Therefore, for the energy markets, the immediate implication of the US action bothers on the flow of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels of oil per day. Venezuela sits on roughly 300 billion barrels of oil, though most of it are trapped under a crumbling infrastructure that needs billions in Western capital to breathe again.

Experts in the oil industry fear that the markets can expect a massive spike in volatility as traders price in the risk of a Venezuelan civil war versus the potential for a “Chevron-led” recovery of the Orinoco Belt.

Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) has long highlighted Venezuela as the “wildcard” of global supply. Even before the raid on the country by US, the IEA forecasts for 2026 had been trimmed due to the U.S. blockade and sanctions hitting Russian and Venezuelan exports. If a transitional government friendly to Washington takes over, we could see the fastest return of “lost” barrels in history, that is if the power grid in Caracas does not collapse entirely first.

As at yesterday, oil performance shows West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $57-$57.50, slightly up due to supply worries but facing pressure from anticipated oversupply, with technicals leaning bearish and a general trend of price declines through late 2025.

Key drivers include OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions, and seasonal demand slowdowns, leading to mixed signals with some ETFs showing small gains while overall outlook remains cautious for continued weakness into 2026, according to Trading Economics and OilPrice.com.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained Nigeria’s oil production quota of 1.5 million barrels of crude per day (bpd) to December 2026.

In a statement, the intergovernmental organisation said the decision to extend Nigeria’s quota was made at its 40th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting, held on Sunday.

On December 5, 2024, the oil cartel extended Nigeria’s oil production quota of 1.5 million barrels of crude per day (bpd) to December 2026.

The international firm upheld its decision, reaffirming the “level of overall crude oil production for OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries in the DoC as agreed in the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting until 31 December 2026”.

OPEC also reaffirmed that the joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) is mandated to closely review global oil market conditions, oil production levels, and the level of conformity with the declaration of cooperation (DoC).

The statement noted that the OPEC secretariat will assist the committee in this role.

“In reference to the decision of the 39th ONOMM; mandating the OPEC Secretariat to develop a mechanism to assess participating countries’ maximum sustainable production capacity (MSC) to be used as reference for the 2027 production baselines for all DoC countries, the Participating Countries approved the mechanism developed by the Secretariat,” the oil cartel said.

OPEC scheduled its next meeting for June 7, 2026.

In a separate statement on Sunday, the oil cartel said some member countries of OPEC and its allies, also known as OPEC+, held a virtual meeting to review global market conditions and outlook.

In April 2023 and November 2023, eight countries announced additional voluntary adjustments.

The countries are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.

On November 2, the countries decided to pause their oil output increases during the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 — agreeing to a 137,000 bpd hike for December 2025.

According to OPEC, the eight participating countries reaffirmed their decision to pause production increments in January, February, and March 2026 “due to seasonality”.

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“The eight participating countries reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner,” the oil alliance said.

OPEC said the countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions.

In their continuous efforts to support market stability, the group noted that the countries “reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments”.

OPEC said this includes the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023.

According to the statement, the group also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024.

“The eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation,” the oil alliance said.

The eight countries, OPEC said, will meet on January 4, 2026.

Oil prices eased slightly yesterday as Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC’s) plans to increase oil output once again outweighed hopes of a trade deal framework between the U.S. and China and renewed U.S. sanctions on Russia.

Brent crude futures were down about 26 cents, or nearly 0.4per cent, at $65.68 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 9 cents or 0.2per cent lower at $61.41. Both contracts fell around one per cent in early trade.

Eight OPEC+ nations are leaning towards making another modest increase in oil output for December when they meet on Sunday as Saudi Arabia pushes to reclaim market share, four sources familiar with the talks said.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that U.S. and Chinese officials had hashed out a “substantial framework” for a trade deal that could avoid 100per cent U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and achieve a deferral of China’s rare-earth export controls in trade discussions this week.

“Crude futures are taking a breather from last week’s steep rally as President Trump is meeting with Chinese President Xi and staff for trade negotiations on Thursday to hopefully finalize most differences,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

The United States hit Russia’s major oil companies with sanctions on Wednesday, which could hurt Russia’s oil exports if enforced and be a positive for crude prices, Kissler added.

“While the futures market has added in additional trade with China and less crude exports from Russia, traders remain cautious as to how much this will actually affect global supplies,” Kissler said.

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Concerns over lacklustre demand have weighed on the market, with Brent falling to its lowest since May earlier this month, but renewed sanctions on Russia from the U.S. along with stronger-than-expected U.S. demand have helped buoy prices.

“The hope for bulls is that U.S. consumption continues to recover, otherwise it seems the drift lower seen so far today is likely to intensify,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Bank.

OPEC and its allies have changed course this year by reversing previous production cuts to regain market share, helping in part to keep a lid on oil prices.

Iraq, the OPEC group’s biggest overproducer, was in negotiations over the size of its quota within its available capacity of 5.5 million barrels per day, oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said at an oil conference on Monday.

The fire at Iraq’s Zubair oilfield on Sunday did not impact exports from the country, he added.

Last week, Brent and WTI rose 8.9per cent and 7.7per cent, respectively, on U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia.

“There are likely some continued challenges for Russian oil to enter the market, but it depends on how sanctions will be enforced,” said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.

Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries+ (OPEC+) has agreed to raise oil output from November by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), opting for the same fairly modest monthly increase as in October amid persistent worries over a looming supply glut.

The group comprising the OPEC plus Russia and some smaller producers has so far increased its oil output targets by more than 2.7 million bpd this year, equating to about 2.5 per cent of global demand.

At the virtual meeting yesterday, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed their commitment to market stability on current healthy oil market fundamentals and steady global economic outlook and adjust production.

The eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met virtually yesterday to review global market conditions and outlook.

Available outcome of the meeting uploaded on the OPEC website shortly after the meeting and monitored by The Nation, indicated that in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023.

This adjustment will be implemented in November 2025. The 1.65 mbpd may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner. The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to pause or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments, including the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 mbpd announced in November 2023.

The eight OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation. The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).

They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024. The eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation. The eight countries will meet on  November 2, 2025.

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Brent prices fell below $65 per barrel on Friday, as most analysts predict a supply glut in the fourth quarter and in 2026 due to slower demand and rising U.S. supply. Prices are trading below this year’s peaks of $82 per barrel but above $60 per barrel seen in May.

In the run-up to the meeting, Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two biggest producers in the OPEC+ group, had different views. Russia was advocating for a modest output increase, the same as in October, to avoid pressuring oil prices and because it would struggle to raise output owing to sanctions over its war in Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, would have preferred double, triple or even quadruple that figure – 274,000 bpd, 411,000 bpd or 548,000 bpd respectively – because it has spare capacity and wants to regain market share more quickly.

OPEC views the global economic outlook as steady and market fundamentals as healthy because of low oil inventories, it said in a statement on yesterday.

Consequently, it is expected that oil prices may rise today by up to $1 per barrel as the November production increase turned out to be modest.

“OPEC+ stepped carefully after witnessing how nervous the market had become … The group is walking a tightrope between maintaining stability and clawing back market share in a surplus environment,” said Rystad Energy said analyst, Jorge Leon.

OPEC+ output cuts had peaked in March, amounting to 5.85 million bpd in total. The cuts were made up of three elements: voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, 1.65 million bpd by eight members and a further 2 million bpd by the whole group.

The eight producers plan to fully unwind one element of those cuts – 2.2 million bpd – by the end of September. For October, they started removing the second layer of 1.65 million bpd with the increase of 137,000 bpd.

The eight producers will meet again on November 2, 2025.

Oil prices fell to a 17-week low yesterday, down for a third straight day on a U.S. government shutdown, as  Fed worries about the global economy, while traders expected more oil supply to come on the market with a planned output boost by OPEC+ next month. Brent crude futures fell 72 cents, or 1.1 per cent, to $65.31 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 68 cents, or 1.1 per cent, to $61.69. Brent was headed for its lowest settlement since June 4 and WTI for its lowest since May 30. U.S. gasoline futures were on track for their lowest close since September 2024.

Traders expect OPEC+ to boost production in November by about the same as the 500,000 barrels per day hike in September, even as U.S. and Asian demand start to decline, Rystad analyst Janiv Shah said. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers like Russia, could agree to raise oil production by up to 500,000 bpd in November, triple the increase made for October, as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim market share, three sources familiar with the talks said.

However, OPEC wrote on X that media reports of plans to raise output by 500,000 bpd were misleading. U.S. oil prices were also pressured by a bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude inventories last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 1.8 million barrels of crude into inventories during the week ended September 26, far exceeding the 1.0-million-barrel build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll. ,

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On Tuesday, sources said the American Petroleum Institute trade group had reported a 3.7-million barrel draw for the week. “Crude stocks rose following a drop in exports, which were not as hot and could signal some weak demand … we already had a pretty big sell off on the government shutdown and expectations that that could slow the economy and hurt demand,” said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group.

The U.S. government shut down much of its operations on Wednesday as deep partisan divisions prevented Congress and the White House from reaching a funding deal. Government agencies have warned this would halt the release of the closely watched September employment report, among other things. U.S. private private payrolls unexpectedly fell in September, suggesting a weakening in labor market conditions. In Asia, the world’s biggest oil-consuming region, data on factory activity added to concerns about fuel demand, as manufacturing activity contracted across most major economies in September.

Focus was also shifting to the supply and export disruption in Russia due to Ukrainian assaults, PVM Oil Associates’ analyst Tamas Varga said. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the situation with the supply of fuel on the domestic market is under control on the whole, while some regions are experiencing shortages of the fuel. Elsewhere in Russia, firefighters brought a fire under control at a major oil refinery in the Yaroslavl region northeast of Moscow, the local emergencies ministry said on Wednesday. The officials said the fire had nothing to do with Ukrainian drones. The next round of talks between the U.S. and Russia aimed at improving relations could take place before the end of autumn, the state TASS news agency reported Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying.

Oil prices could fall below $60 per barrel by the end of the year as OPEC+ continues to unwind production, analysts say after the group began rolling back the last layer of output cuts. 

On Sunday, the eight OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – tapped the 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) cuts announced in April 2023. The producers will return 137,000 bpd of these cuts to the market in October, “in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories,” OPEC said this weekend.

Despite the small rollback, analysts expect an oversupply later this year and early next year, which is set to weigh on oil prices.

“I would say below $60 in the first quarter of next year is possible, mid-$50s is definitely possible, and then that will have a big impact on the US shale production.

“We have not seen the real impact of this unwinding as yet,” chairman emeritus at FGE NexantECA, Fereidun Fesharaki, told Bloomberg Television yesterday.

Next year, supply growth is set to be lower due to the lower oil prices, but a decline in production would lay the foundations of a renewed boost to prices later in 2026, according to Fesharaki.

Early yesterday in Asian trading, oil prices rose by 1.6 per cent as the market was expecting a larger production hike from OPEC+.

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If prices don’t drop too much, the group could be emboldened to accelerate the unwinding of the cuts, as it did earlier this year with the 2.2-million-bpd cuts, Fesharaki said.

“Until you actually see inventories building up, then there will be no impact on the prices,” the oil market expert told Bloomberg.

Even before the latest OPEC+ output increase, Wall Street was expecting prices to fall below $60 per barrel in the coming months.

The market consensus appears to be that the strong summer demand is at its peak, and come the fourth quarter, global oil consumption will slow, and rising supply will overwhelm the market.