One week after the all-important governorship election in Osun State, the tension it generated has sufficiently cooled down to allow a sober look at the result. While the All Progressives Congress candidate, the incumbent Governor Rauf Aregbesola, polled 394,684 votes, his main challenger, Iyiola Omisore, obtained 292,431 votes. By the result, the governor was empowered to continue in office for another four years. The APC faithful have been celebrating since, while the Peoples Democratic Party that fielded Omisore could not believe that the federal might could ever fail to deliver as it did on August 9.
But, through the figures, the people of Osun said a lot that have not been reported. Let me first declare here that I am not looking beyond the figures. This is not to say that there is no truth in the contention that a lot might have gone wrong.
First, the general principles. Aregbesola won in 22 local government areas, while Omisore made the mark in eight. Both candidates made more than the mandatory 25 per cent in the 30 local government areas and, by that, the spread factor counted for nothing. In every election, candidates usually have their strongholds. Aregbesola’s were Ilesa East and West LGAs, Osogbo and Olorunda, as well as Irewole and Olaoluwa. Being evenly distributed among the three Senatorial districts, it was a vindication of the pre-election APC claim to state-wide popularity.
On the other hand, Ife Central, South and East LGAs rallied round their son, Omisore. Outside the three, the PDP standard bearer failed to make sufficient impact elsewhere. In my view, a candidate could claim anywhere he records two-thirds of the votes as his stronghold. But, a candidate could record clear victory in an area where it led his main opponent with more than 20 per cent of the votes, but below the two-third mark. The APC thus had clear victory in Irepodun, Ifelodun, Ede South, Obokun, Egbedore, Ila, Ejigbo, Boripe and Atakumosa East. The PDP did not record such a feat outside the Ife enclave.
The marginal fields where neither party recorded up to 10 per cent lead over the other were Boluwaduro, Ifedayo, Odo Otin, Orolu, Oriade, Atakumosa West, Ife North, Ayedire, Isokan Ayedaade and Ede North. Of particular note are Ayedire where the PDP led with only 89 votes, Boluwaduro where the party led with a meager 144 and Ifedayo where it won with 243 votes. In reality, these are, therefore swing LGAs.
Further, the results show that Omisore polled 73,038 votes in the four Ife LGAs, about double APC’s 39,419. The PDP candidate’s Ife votes represent about 25 per cent of the total votes for the party. Similarly, the APC candidate recorded 71,477 of the 113,106 votes from the six Ijesa LGAs. Both candidates recorded more than 35 per cent of the votes cast in the stronghold of the other.
The import of the electorate’s decision is that the people of Osun are not particularly averse to any party or candidate and ideological stance may not count for much in elections held in the state in the near future, particularly next year.
It might be wrong to come to the conclusion that the 2015 elections would follow similar pattern in the 30 LGAs. First, variables could have changed, especially as determinants of voting pattern in local, state and presidential elections are never the same.
However, it means that the candidates for the various offices would play major roles in determining voter behaviour. Where identification with parties and ideology is very strong, choice of candidates might not count for much, but in a state where the people do not care much about that factor; it might be the most important factor.
Second, the part played by some defectors from the PDP to the APC just before the election could have contributed to the spread of the party’s vote. This implies that the party needs stability of its structure to hold on to the lever of power. How it manages the primaries to pick candidates for national and state legislative seats could affect its fortunes at the poll. A lot would depend, too, on how well the PDP handles the internal dynamics, first, in holding the party together in the face of the defeat just recorded, and two, satisfying the yearnings of the party members when the time comes to decide those to fly its flag next year.
The heavy role played by financial inducement in the election is an indication that every candidate for the next elections should be prepared to grease palms. It is an indication that the clamour for “stomach infrastructure” might not, after all, be limited to Ekiti State. It is also a pointer to the continued relevance of godfathers in Nigerian politics.
In view of the results of the governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun States, there is a need for scholars of Political Science and Political Sociology to come up with authoritative studies on the changing dynamics of politics, especially in the old Western Region. It will equally be useful to authoritatively determine the part played by federal might in the conduct and outcome of elections in this part of the world.
Certainly, the last has not been heard of the Osun elections.
