- By Adekunle Adesuji
As political conversations gradually shift towards the 2027 governorship election in Oyo State, familiar arguments have once again resurfaced. Chief among such issues of contention is the subtle, but persistent attempt to frame succession through the prism of religion. While such narratives may excite sectional sentiments, they collapse under the weight of history, electoral behaviour, and the enduring political culture of the state.
Across Ibadan, Oke-Ogun, Ogbomosho, Oyo, and Ibarapa zones, the evidence remains consistent: political power in Oyo has never been negotiated based on faith or ethnicity alone. Rather, it has been earned through competence, integrity, organisation, structure, and sustained public trust built over time. This has been the trend since the birth of the Fourth Republic in 1999.
Since the return of democratic governance in 1999, Oyo politics has followed a clear and predictable pattern. The pattern has always been competence over idiosyncrasy, performance over piety, governance over symbolism. The electorate, widely regarded as one of the most politically sophisticated in the South-West, has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to separate personal belief from public leadership.
The ongoing debate to reduce the 2027 governorship contest to a religious calculation, therefore, oversimplifies deeply complex political realities that characterise Oyo State. It has never worked under previous political dispensations. In the foreseeable future, obviously, it is not going to work because the people will always separate religion from politics or any form of sentiment from governance.
History offers clarity in this direction. Between 1999 and 2003, the late Alhaji Lam Adesina of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), a Muslim, governed the state for four years. His administration was noted for grassroots mobilisation and education reforms, yet he lost re-election due to shifting political alliances and voter dissatisfaction—not religious considerations.
In 2003, Senator Rashidi Ladoja of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), also a Muslim and now the Olubadan of Ibadanland, emerged as governor and served between 2003 and 2007. His tenure was defined by intense intra-party crises and legislative battles, reinforcing the reality that political survival in Oyo State depends more on structure and stability than on faith or religion.
Again, in 2007, the pendulum swung when Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala of the PDP, a Christian, assumed office. Despite his populist appeal and security-oriented background, Alao-Akala served only one term, exiting office in 2011, perhaps because he was a product of political crisis. His exit also reminded us that religious identity neither guarantees longevity nor shields a governor from electoral judgment.
From 2011 to 2019, the late Senator Abiola Ajimobi of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), later the All Progressives Congress (APC), a Muslim, governed the state for eight uninterrupted years. His tenure, the longest in Oyo’s democratic history, was secured through strategic alliances with pro-people political actors, urban renewal, expansive infrastructure development, and firm political consolidation. Ajimobi was able to secure re-election not because of religious sentiment, but due to his sterling performance in office.
Since 2019, Governor Seyi Makinde of the PDP, a Christian, has been governing Oyo State. He is on course to complete eight years in office by 2027. His initial emergence was a product of strong political alliance, elite consensus, and grassroots mobilisation, particularly at a time when opposition forces coalesced to challenge a dominant APC structure. He did not win the governorship contest based on religious sentiment.
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More instructive was Makinde’s re-election in 2023, achieved with a commanding statewide spread. That victory was driven by political negotiation, policy continuity, and a populist governance style – not by appeals to faith. Central to this appeal were the prompt and regular payment of civil servants’ salaries and pensions, as well as the historic takeover of full ownership of the Ladoke Akintola University of Technology (LAUTECH), Ogbomoso, from Osun State.
When aggregated, the figures speak clearly. Muslim governors would have governed Oyo State for about 16 years between 1999 and 2019, while Christian governors would have governed for about 12 years by 2027. This near balance decisively dispels any claim of religious exclusion and confirms that leadership in Oyo has been distributed by electoral choice, not religious rotation. With these figures, Christians, Muslims, should be clamouring for additional terms.
Beyond statistics, voter behaviour in Oyo State has remained remarkably consistent. Market women, artisans, traders, farmers, transport workers, civil servants, youths, and professionals do not always vote based on religious sentiment. Rather, they consciously exercise their suffrage based on the public records of governorship candidates and their political parties. Also, they often vote candidates based on the quality of their manifestoes, character, competence and integrity.
In Oyo State, therefore, previous governors were not elected on mere religious rhetoric. But they all secured public confidence consequent on the number of roads, schools and healthcare facilities they promised to deliver to the people or the number of jobs, economic opportunity and pro-people programmes they mapped out to create if elected. Infrastructure is neutral and governance outcomes are shared realities, not denominational privileges.
Even though Makinde, today the undisputed ‘alpha and omega’ of his party in the state, is quietly working on a succession plan, political insiders confirm that such calculations are far removed from religion. Instead, the focus is on continuity of policy, political acceptability, and statewide appeal. His succession plan is another takeaway that the people of Oyo State do not always exercise their suffrage based on their religious sentiment.
This pattern should be a grave lesson for opposition political parties serious about occupying the Agodi Government House. Winning the race to Agodi is not and has never been won based on denominational or religious considerations. Rather, credible candidates across political divides will be assessed based on their connection to the grassroots; political structures they have established; the degree of political acceptability they have been able to secure and the level of public trust they have earned across the state.
These are time-tested considerations that have guided the behaviour of the electorate in Oyo State since we returned to democratic rule in 1999. Will this pattern of voter behaviour change in the next context? Time will definitely resolve this puzzle in the coming months. But one thing is certain as we inch closer to the 2027 governorship in Oyo State. The defining question will not be who worships where, but who can govern better. This is simply because Oyo State has outgrown the politics of religion.
- Adesuji, a public affairs analyst, writes from Ibadan
