On December 12, 2015, Nigeria, alongside 194 other countries, adopted a resolution. It was to reduce global carbon emission which took the centre stage at the Conference of Parties 21 (COP21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris, France. Assistant Editor SEUN AKIOYE who was at the conference reports on how Nigeria will fulfill its obligations.
Fabius Laurent, the President of the Conference of Parties 21 (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) looked like a rock star after he banged the gavel, signifying the adoption of a historic climate change agreement in Paris, France.
There were shouts, applause and raw show of emotions as it dawned on the delegates from almost 200 countries, who converged on Paris that history was unfolding in their life-time.
Laurent himself could not hide his emotions. He stood up raising up the hands of French President Francois Hollande and United Nations (UN) Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon in a victory sign.
“The Paris agreement allows each delegation and group of countries to go back home with their heads held high. Our collective effort is worth more than the sum of our individual effort. Our responsibility to history is immense,” Laurent said to a sustained applause.
But, Laurent, the French Foreign Minister, and former Prime Minister, has not always been the rock star of what is now known as the Paris Climate Agreement. For a little over two weeks, he faced intense pressure and criticism over the fate of the agreement which forced him almost to the limit of his diplomatic skills.
Also, the ghost of the failure of Copenhagen climate talks in 2009 hung heavily on the conference venue at Le Bourget, the sleepy community, north of Paris. The Copenhagen talks have been considered a major failure and it seemed early that the Paris talks would follow the same pattern.
The road to Paris
There is the belief that Africa has not been a historic contributor to climate change, accounting for less than two to three per cent of the world’s GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emission. But, its effect has been felt largely on the continent due to several factors, including underdevelopment, high prevalence of conflict and subsequent diseases, the location of the continent itself and the high dependence on rain-fed agriculture.
There are grim predictions for the continent if Paris failed in a concrete agreement that would reduce global emission to lower than two degreeCelsius. If the current trend continues, Africa’s annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss would be between 1.5 to three per cent by 2030. Besides, famine and wars are expected to rise even as the continent’s coastal cities like Lagos, the Niger Delta and Durban, would be submerged. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also predicted that about 250 million Africans will be exposed to increased water stress by 2020 and that Lake Chad, with an estimated area of 26,000 square kilometers, has been reduced to just about 10 per cent of its size in 1960.
Lake Chad is economic lifeline to more than 30 million people in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger.
In a report titled: “Turn the heat down”, released in 2013, the World Bank predicted that dry and arid regions in Southern and Western Africa will increase by 10 per cent by 2030 and if the global temperature increases from 1.5 to two degree Celsius by 2040, African farmers will lose between 40-80 per cent of their crop land while yields from rain-fed agriculture will suffer reduction by at least 50 per cent by 2020. This will adversely affect food security, fueling climate migration, unrest and violence.
The target of keeping the climate “well below two degrees” according to activists and African developmentpartners is a little too late for the continent. “Two degree Celsius is already harmful – with what you are looking at, an increase of about 3.5 degree Celsius for the continent because of Africa’s location. 1.5 degree Celsius would be reasonable. We want to see better ambition by people not submitting what is convenient for them but what is right,”Anthony Nyong, coordinator of the African Development Bank (AfDB) delegation said.
The continent resolved at COP21 to speak with one voice, apart from a strong contingent in the African Group of Negotiators (AGN), which is chaired by Nagmeldin Elhassan from Sudan. The continent also had a strong voice in the G77+China.
Of particular concern to the Africans at the Paris Conference were the issues of carbon emission reduction to1.5 degree Celsius, financial pledge , loss and damage and common but differentiated responsibility clauses.
At the Copenhagen talks in 2009, a pledge was extracted from developed countries to contribute $100 billion yearly until 2020 to help developing nations combat climate change. But by 2014, the fund had only yielded $62 billion, a situation which did not go down well with the AGN.
Therefore, when the talks opened in Paris, it was a better prepared Africa and optimistic world that converged on Le Bourget. Laurent said at the start of the conference: “This will be a COP of action, it’s clear, it’s true.”
The villains, the heroes
Trouble began early in the talks with allegations that developed and wealthy nations had aligned against the main clauses of the proposed agreement, including Loss and Damage, reduction of GHG to 1.5 and financial pledges. But, none was more divisive than the challenge of fossil fuel, free world and keeping the global climate under control.
The initial negotiations were conducted by country negotiators, after which ministers for the Environment deliberated on the draft agreement. But, it was by no means an easy task, led by the Philippines, the vulnerable countries forum wanted global carbon eradication by 2050 but the United States (US) and other developed countries prefer to shift the deadline to 2100.
“In the last 60 years, the world climate has reached 1.0 degree Celsius and in the last 10 years, we have reached 100 per cent extreme weather, imagine if 2050 is not achieved, we are roasted,” one of the negotiators from South Africa said.
He was not the only one who had the feeling that the world will be roasted; Godwin Ojo of Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the Earth Nigeria (ERA/FoEN), shared such sentiment. “We want a de-carbonised economy, a move from fossil fuel. Anything short of 1.5 degrees is roasting Africa; it is destroying mother earth; by that, Africa is already at 3.5, so, we cannot afford to go higher. The developed countries should live up to their historic responsibility,” Ojo said.
But India, an emerging industrialised country and Saudi Arabia, a major oil producing country reportedly did not buy into the idea. They were opposed to anything but 2.0 degrees. Also, all the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) – a set of adaptive and mitigation measures each party intends to adopt against climate change – submitted by parties, pointed to a carbon reduction of 2.7 to 3.5 degrees. That is bad news for Africa and other vulnerable countries.
The US also reportedly frowned at the Loss and Damage clause which would have allowed countries, especially in Africa claim damages from historic polluters. The US frowned at a legally binding agreement, which would have been impossible to pass through the US congress.
Nigeria and the climate challenge
Environment Minister Amina Mohammed shone like a star at the talks. Until her appointment, she was the SpecialAdvisor on Millennium Development Goals (MDG) to the UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-Moon. So, she was on a familiar turf.
Nigeria submitted its INDC on November 28 at 12:24:55pm, one month after it was prepared by the Ministry of the Environment and a few days before COP21.
“The INDC is not just an ordinary document, we have to be careful in completing it and we didn’t delay intentionally. Many developing countries don’t understand what should go into the INDC. We had to follow due process, get the buy-in of all the stakeholders and collect information before we arrived at our conclusion. It was when the government understands what is in the INDC that it gave its accent,”Adeoye Adejuwon, the lead negotiator for Nigeria told The Nation.
Nigeria has had its fair share of the climate change calamity. For many years, the coastal cities and communities have been especially prone to ocean encroachment. There are predictions about Lagos being submerged in flood and coastal communities like Ayetoro in Ilaje Local Government Area of Ondo State already lost more than half of its land to the ocean.
The Permanent Secretary in the Environment Ministry, Bukar Hassan, said: “If you look at the sea level rise, in about 30 years, we may lose the whole of Lagos. The rainfall pattern in the northeast has changed. We can’t predict the quantum and distribution; food security is affected and that has, apart from the one caused by insurgency, we have climate refugees in the North and the South.”
According to a 2009 DFID study, if no adaptation action is taken, between two to 11 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP could be lost by 2020. This projection is not to be taken lightly as the Post Disaster Need Assessment (PDNA) Report of the 2012 flood showed that the total damage caused by the flood was $16.9 billion, representing 1.4 per cent of the real GDP growth in that year.
“In this regard, climate change poses a significant threat to the achievement of development goals, especially those related to eliminating poverty and hunger and promoting environmental sustainability,” the Nigerian report said.
This situation set the tone for Nigeria’s “ambitious INDC”, Hassan said. According to the document, the objective is a reduction of GHG from Business As Usual (BAU) by 2030 while growing the economy by five percent annually.
According to officials, Nigeria would reduce her carbon emission by 20 per cent unconditionally, and if given international assistance, rise to 45 per cent. The key measures to achieve this would be: work towards ending gas flaring by 2030; work towards off-grid solar PV of 13GW (13,000MW); Efficient gas generators; two per cent per year energy efficiency (30 per cent by 2030); transport shift from car to mass transit; improve electricity grid and climate smart agriculture and reforestation.
Nigeria’s estimated emission currently stands at around two tonnes CO2e (equivalent carbon dioxide) per person and if current trends continue, it will rise to 900 million tonnes per year or 3.4tonnes CO2e per person by 2030. However, under the conditional reduction, by 2030, Nigeria’s emission will reduce to two tonnes CO2e. Historically, between 1850 and 2010, Nigeria has emitted 2,564.02 million tonnes of GHG.
In 2012, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) adopted the Nigeria Climate Change Policy, Response and Strategy with a goal to “to foster low-carbon, high growth economic development and build a climate resilient society.”
The approach to achieving this would be through the implementation of mitigation measures that will promote low carbon as well as sustainable and high economic growth; enhancement of national capacity to adapt to climate change; raising of climate change-related science, technology and R&D to a new level that will enhance better participate in international scientific and technological cooperation on climate change by the country; significantlyincreasing public awareness and involve private sector participation in addressing the challenges of climate change; strengthening of national institutions and mechanisms (policy, legislative and economic) to establish a suitable and functional framework for climate governance.
Adaptation, mitigation strategy
The fight against climate change is predicated on both mitigation and adaptation strategies and Nigeria has adopted some strategies in key sectors. For instance, in agriculture, the government plans to adopt improved system for both crops and livestock including the introduction of drought-resistant crops, implement strategies for improved resource management. In energy, Nigeria plans to increased protective margins in construction and placement of energy infrastructure (i.e. higher standards and specifications) expand sustainable energy sources and decentralise transmission in order to reduce vulnerability of energy infrastructure to climate impacts.
In forestry, Nigeria will strengthen the implementation of the national community-based forest resources management programme while supporting the review and implementation of the national forest policy. The country will also develop and maintain a frequent forest inventory system to facilitate monitoring of forest status; and initiate a research programme on a range of climate change-related topics, including long-term impacts of climatic shifts on closed forests.
In transport and communications, the government plans to undertake risk assessment and risk reduction measures to increase the resilience of the transportation and communication sectors. Strengthen existing transportation and communications’ infrastructure through early efforts to identify and implement all possible ‘no regrets’ actions.
But, despite these set objectives, Nigeria aligned with countries like India, to oppose an early end to fossil fuel extraction. “We are an energy thirst country. What we are generating today is not sufficient. So, if coal is the answer, why not?” Hassan said.
Also Cross River State Governor, Prof Ben Ayade, who doubles as the chairman of African Governors Forum on Climate Change, said Nigeria cannot transit from fossil fuel now. “Renewable energy is not the way for Africans at this point in time. Renewable energy means an end to the sale of hydro-carbon and that means Nigeria should stop exporting crude oil. But, they are busy doing research, inventing technology, using solar energy and wind power.
“When all of that happens, when the oil price goes down, when you stop producing oil, what are you going to use as an alternative? Renewable energy must follow with development, it must follow with technology. Africa cannot be in a haste to adopt renewable technology,” Ayade argued.
According to the governor, the answer is controlled utilisation of fossil fuel. He said: “I would rather have you use fossil fuel with mitigate measures than to cap it and focus on renewable energy. While that technology works for them, it is harmful for our economy.”
But, this position contrasts sharply with the generally held view that fossil fuel consumption is largely responsible for climate change disasters. Former Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mrs. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, said Nigeria must move away from subsidising dirty energy.
She said: “Almost three quarters of infrastructure that Africa needs we still don’t have it. That means the power we need, the road and the railway, we still cannot get these infrastructures and have it in a way that is friendly to climate change, that lowers emission and puts us on a low-carbon growth path.
“We are looking at power and looking at renewables. We are not saying renewables should be everything because Africa should have a mix. We can still use gas to some extent, but we should increase the renewables.”
But, frontline environmentalist and Executive Director, Health of Mother Earth Foundation (HoMEF) Nnimmo Bassey, said Nigeria must embrace renewable energy 100 per cent.
“Nigeria should move away from oil. We made a lot from oil and lose a lot to oil theft. We need to be creative and invest in areas that sustain lives. We have all this sun; Nigeria should jump into renewable energy,” Bassey said in Paris.
Hope rising
After two weeks of intense negotiations and expectation, the Paris agreement was finally adopted on December 12. It was an emotional moment for world leaders, politicians and activists, as the agreement was the first legally binding climate change agreement with far-reaching impacts on the future of the world.
“You’ve done it! Reached an ambitious agreement; a binding agreement; a universal agreement. Never will I be able to express more gratitude to a conference. You can be proud to stand before your children and grandchildren,” Hollande said.
Ban Ki-moon said: “We have entered a new era of global cooperation on one of the most complex issues ever to confront humanity. For the first time, every country in the world has pledged to curb emissions, strengthen resilience and join in common cause to take common climate action. This is a resounding success for multilateralism.”
The main objective of the historic climate change agreement is to keep a global temperature rise this century well below two degree Celsius and to drive efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The agreement also captured the essential elements which includes: mitigation – reducing emissions fast enough to achieve the temperature goal; transparency system and global stock-take – accounting for climate action; adaptation – strengthening ability of countries to deal with climate impacts; Loss and Damage – strengthening ability to recover from climate impacts and support – including finance, for nations to build clean, resilient futures.
There is also hope in the horizon for vulnerable and developing countries like Nigeria as “unparalleled announcements of financial supports” were made. “We have seen unparallelled announcements of financial support for both mitigation and adaptation from a multitude of sources both before and during COP21. Under the Paris Agreement, the provision of finance, from multiple sources will clearly be taken to a new level, which is of critical importance to the most vulnerable,” Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC said.
Nigeria is already looking beyond the Paris talks. On arrival from the conference, the Minister of the Environment began an on-the -spot visit to degraded areas in the country for impact assesement.
Among the places visited were: the Niger Delta, Alpha Beach and Makoko in Lagos, the sand dune in Yobe and the Sharada industrial pollution site in Kano.
The assessment was aimed at setting the pace for a comprehensive response to the challenge of climate change even as Nigeria plans to hold on to its leadership role in Africa.
President Muhammadu Buhari has pledged his commitment to reducing the GHG as well as tackle the climate change challenge in the country.
But, the implementation would rest on the shoulders of Hajia Mohammed as the envionment minsiter.
