The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is distressed. Twenty-seven years after it was founded by eminent political leaders from the six geo-political zones, the party has cracked into two irredeemable parts. From all indications, each part is on its way to the Golgotha, despite the pretences and wall-patching.
There are obvious reasons for this.
The main opposition party was broken by long-standing chieftains who failed to unite the platform and offer effective leadership at critical times.
There is a dichotomy. The position of younger elements, now in the majority and holding the levers of power at the sub-regional levels, does not align with the older generation in what has become a dysfunctional family.
The younger generation is trying to defend the vision of the core founding fathers, particularly the values of equity, fairness, and justice, through zoning or rotation of the six topmost offices: president, vice president, Senate President, Speaker of House of Representatives, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, and National Party Chairman.
The younger members also insisted that it is better to go into a coalition as a party instead of killing the party or weakening it before moving to another party, thereby obliterating the legacy of the founding fathers.
But the elders, flaunting their gerontocratic credentials as former men of power and symbols of old glory, ironically opted for a partisan behaviour that negated these hitherto shared principles. In 2023, they resolved to promote the culture of exclusion, marginalisation, alienation, personalisation, and monopolisation of privileges. Since that electioneering, the party has not remained the same.
Many chieftains have bidden farewell to the party that gave them fame and embraced a platform on the fringe to pursue the narrow interest of a veteran presidential contender who may likely retrace his steps to the PDP he had repudiated, if he loses the poll, as he did in the past.
The mainstream PDP is still being led by Acting National Chairman, Ambassador Umar Damagum, who now seems to have a less headache to contend with, although no serious leader would be comfortable with the decimation of his platform. His major challenge now is how to contain those trying to shove Senator Samuel Anyanwu aside as the party’s National Secretary.
The second PDP comprises aggrieved elders, led by Atiku Abubakar, who invaded the African Democratic Congress (ADC) during the week, acquired its liabilities, and inherited its crisis. The Atiku club’s only aspiration is to install the former vice president as president. There may be no room for other aspirants, except those interested in governorship and legislative positions.
It is merely a camp within the mainstream body seeking an imaginary political refuge outside its natural habitat. It is not a coalition in the real sense because all the people it has attracted, except Chief Rauf Aregbesola, have the PDP blood flowing in their veins.
If the All Progressive Congress (APC) is their target for liquidation, then, the strategy has taken off on the wrong foot. The ‘PDP-ADC’ should have remained in the mainstream PDP, which, if fortified, could offer a position of strength as a time-tested and resilient brand.
The implosion means that the two factions – PDP and PDP-ADC – would be at war in 2027 instead of combining their arsenal to tackle the APC. As the two PDP factions battle for power ahead of the 2027 general election, there may be no reservoir of energy to frontally tackle the ruling party when the real combat begins.
The turn of events is unfortunate for the once-acclaimed largest party in Nigeria. Two days before the exit of the Atiku camp to the ADC, it appeared that respite was coming the way of the troubled platform. The PDP managed to avert a looming danger. It surprisingly refrained from behaving like a rattled dog destined to get lost in the forest after failing to listen to the hunter’s whistle.
That was on Monday when the party elder, Commodore Bode George, described the PDP as an immovable Iroko tree whose strength lies in its resilience and capacity for survival.
But a day later, the gains of the wise decision taken by the stakeholders were lost. Atiku presided over a coalition meeting in Abuja attended by members of his camp, including Gen. David Mark, Senator Aminu Tambuwal, who was described by the sacked national chairman, Senator Iyorchia Ayu, as the hero of the 2022 presidential convention; Gabriel Suswam, Donald Duke, Liyel Imoke, and Uche Secondus. In their communique, they proposed the break-up of PDP and welcomed the coalition with open hands.
The PDP’s saving grace on Monday was the umpire, which rendered the unsolicited patriotic service as the constitutional monitor of political parties and their activities. Peeping into 2027, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) saw a danger looming for the main opposition party when it sidelined the statutory guidelines for the issuance of notices for critical party meetings, particularly the National Executive Committee (NEC) and the National Convention.
In utter ignorance, Damagum unilaterally sent out the notice of the NEC meeting, thereby violating the rules and processes. That was after the PDP governors had, in their wildest imagination, sent Anyanwu packing as the party’s National Secretary and decreed that his deputy, Setonji Koshoedo, should take over in an acting capacity.
Only the Atiku camp has defected to ADC. This seems to have resolved some intra-party disputes. Therefore, the mainstream camp should mend the fence within, close ranks, and reconcile on agreeable terms.
There are four tendencies in the decimated PDP struggling for the soul of the party on equal terms.
The first is the Damagum/Wike group. It consists of a section of the National Working Committee (NWC) and the G-5, with the exception of Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde. They are insisting that Anyanwu should not be disturbed. Also, they are holding on to the court judgment which supports the acting chairmanship of Damagum till December.
A big problem is how the party would handle Wike, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, who has vowed to support the second term bid of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, despite being the undisputed leader of Rivers PDP. He was a great asset to the PDP who galvanised the platform until after the problematic 2022 presidential primary, when reality dawned on him that some forces were bent on circumventing the zoning principle.
The second group is the PDP Governors’ Forum, which is bent on getting Anyanwu, an ally of Wike, out of the way. It is a proxy war against Wike, who has been up in arms against the governors.
The third appears to be a one-man band. Although he chairs the Governors’ Forum, Senator Bala Mohammed, governor of Bauchi State, is believed to be nursing a presidential ambition. The aspiration is at variance with the popular feeling in the PDP about presidential zoning.
The view, particularly among members of the party in the three geo-political zones in the South, is that the ticket should be zoned to them.
The fourth is the Southeast Caucus, which is battling with the acrimony at home. The agitation for the removal of Anyanwu by the regional caucus and replacement with Sunday Udeh-Okoye is supported by Enugu State Governor Peter Mbah, who had re-echoed the threat by the Southeast Caucus to review its relationship with the leadership of the party.
The onus is on the Peace Committee, headed by former Senate President Bukola Saraki, to approach the challenge of reconciliation with more seriousness. Speed is required for him to accomplish his task because delay may be dangerous.
It appears that Saraki has an understanding of the conflicts tearing the party apart. He managed to resolve the Anambra governorship nomination logjam by appealing to Anyanwu, who had been sent packing from the national secretariat to sign the form of the PDP candidate.
Already, the vulnerability of the PDP is obvious. It has lost two governors – Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State and Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom – to the APC. Federal legislators from the party have also defected to the ruling party.
As the party prepares for the National Executive Committee (NEC) and National Convention meetings, it should resolve to put its house in order. The PDP leaders should know that their sphere of influence has shrunk. The votes in its strongholds would have to be shared between the old PDP and the new one masquerading as ADC.
But it can continue to strategise, do introspection, embrace the reality and plan to bounce back.
