The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) dreams of ruling for the next 60 years. The ruling party is likely to be in unrealistic dream, going by its recent travails. President Goodluck Jonathan’s public rating seems to be dropping geometrically. Five weeks to the general elections, many states’ chapters are battling with post-governorship and parliamentary primary crises, thereby jeopardising the party’s chances at the March 28 and April 11 polls. Scores of aggrieved chieftains are defecting to the opposition. But, more dangerous are stalwarts plotting to work against the party without defecting. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the agony of a party going into critical polls as a divided house.
For 16 years, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has grown from strength to strength. It appears the ruling party is now yielding to the law of diminishing returns. In 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011, it won the presidential elections conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Four years after its last victory, the confidence appears to be waning, in the light of President Goodluck Jonathan’s avoidance of the presidential election previously scheduled for February 14.
Many PDP chieftains acknowledge that all is not well with the self-acclaimed biggest party in Africa. Some of them now perceive the President as a weak candidate. Yet, the party is helpless. More worrisome is its plight across the states. The chapters have not recovered from the rancorous governorship and parliamentary primaries, which have polarised the fold.
The chapters that have been relying on federal might for survival are now enveloped in anxiety. At the centre, the confidence of the party is shaky. Reconciliation in some states has been futile: no thanks to the escalation of the post-primary crises. According to analysts, the shifting of the polls notwithstanding, PDP may go into the contest as a divided house.
Delta
Delta State is perceived as one of the strongholds of the PDP. But, observers have predicted a tough battle in the Southsouth state on March 28. The governorship primary was the turning point. The governor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, lost his senatorial ambition to the squabbles. He could not also anoint a successor. The governor had taken his preferred candidate, Fekix Obuh, to Aso Rock for presidential blessing. Later, the table turned against him. Instead of the governor, a government contractor, Government Ekpemupolo (aka Tompolo), an acclaimed Niger Delta freedom fighter, started calling the shots. When it appeared that Obuh would not fit into the calculation again, Uduaghan settled for Edevbie. But, he was also rejected. Thus, apart from forfeiting his senatorial ambition, the governor’s muscle failed him when the choice of the flag bearer and his running mate was being considered.
Today, Urhobo are not happy with the emergence of Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, an Igbo from Udokwa.
Besides, other ethnic groups have cried out that only the Ijaw are savouring democratic dividends in Delta. The Itsekiri alleged that the Export Processing Zone (EPZ) project was relocated from its area to Ijaw, despite pleas, The Urhobo is also angry that it has been marginalised as the majority tribe. The tribe had expected that, having lost the governorship, the deputy governorship would be zoned to the ethnic group. It lost both. Now, its leading lights are eyeing the All progressives Congress (APC), which has picked its governorship candidate, Chief Otega Emerhor, from Urhobo.
Akwa Ibom
Akwa Ibom State Governor Godswill Akpabio is fighting battles on many fronts. When the President visited the state recently, he was embarrassed by the extent of the internal strife. The governor has come under attack for insisting on the candidature of the banker-turned politician, Mr. Udom Emmanuel. Following the exit of Umana Umana as the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Emmanuel, a former Executive Director of Zenith Bank, was appointed as as Umana’s replacement, before his eventual emergence at the governorship primariesas as the flag bearer. Many PDP leaders in the state have objected to his candidature, alleging that he was imposed by the governor. They have vowed to take their pound of flesh from the PDP at the polls.
Umana, who defected to the APC, in protest, is now the opposition candidate in the oil-rich state. Analysts have predicted a tough battle. Although Akwa Ibom is predominantly a PDP state, there is division in the chapter. Prominent PDP leaders, including Akpabio’s predecessor, Obong Victor Attah and former Petroleum Minister Chief Don Etiebet, have publicly objected to the governor’s style, warning that it may be a prelude to electoral doom. Unless there is a serious reconciliation, the contest will be tough for the PDP.
Sokoto
The dust generated by the governorship shadow poll has not settled. The deputy governor, Alhaji Mukthar Shagari, was embittered by its outcome. He had been penciled down for the slot in 2007, when he was asked to step down for incumbent Governor Aliyu Wamakko. When his boss defected to the APC, he remained in the party. But, following the defection of former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa from the APC to the PDP, the calculation changed. The PDP national leadership transferred the party leadership to the former governor. Up came Ambassador Wali as a major contender for the governorship. He defeated Shagari at the primaries. But, the deputy governor’s supporters have insisted that Wali was drafted into the race in bad faith. APC is a formidable platform to contend with. The defection of House of Representatives Speaker Aminu Tambuwal from the ruling party and the fact that the Speaker will be flying the banner of the APC on March 28, will further affect the PDP. Coupled with the internal strife and rancour in the PDP, the race will be tougher for the PDP.
Anambra:
PDP held sway in Anambra State between 1999 and 2003. Even, when the PDP was in power, it was in deep crisis. When former Governor Chinwoke Mbadinuju, called the shots, the party was utterly divided. He was consumed by the imbroglio. His second term ambition was truncated. His successor, Dr. Chris Ngige, could not finish his term. Godfathers demanded returns on their political investments, and when Ngige called their bluff, the state became ungovernable. Later, the mandate was restored to Mike Obi, who flew the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) flag for the eight years his two-term tenure lasted. He dumped the party that brought him into political limelight for the PDP shortly after leaving office.
Since then, the PDP has been making frantic efforts to bounce back, but without success. The party leaders only take solace in victory at the parliamentary elections. But, the scramble for parliamentary tickets has now polarised the crisis-ridden chapter.
In Anambra Central Senatorial District, the post primary crisis escalated last week, following the replacement of Chief Chris Uba with his elder brother, Andy, as the senatorial flag bearer. The two brothers have been making antagonistic claims to the ticket, following the parallel primaries held in the district. Chris had earlier said that he was the authentic candidate, pointing out that his name has been submitted to INEC. But, Andy’s name appeared on the INEC website as the flag bearer for the zone, to the consternation of his younger brother, who is said to be in control of the party structure.
Also, for the Anambra North, the name of the House of Representatives member, Mrs. Uche Ekwunife appeared on the website as the senatorial candidate. Mrs. Ekwunife and Senator Annie Okonkwo have been at loggerheads over the ticket after the primaries. Okonkwo’s supporters are kicking against Mrs. Ekwunife’s emergence as the candidate. In Anambra South, where former Aviation Minister Stella Oduah’s name appeared as the flag bearer, there are also protests.
Ogun
The greatest tragedy that has befallen Ogun PDP is Tuesday’s resignation of former President Olusegun Obasanjo from partisan politics. Obasanjo, who has not hidden his opposition to President Goodluck Jonathan’s second term bid, will not throw his weight behind the governorship candidate, Gboyega Isiaka, after shredding his membership card. Although the two factions of the party in the Gateway State managed to reach a truce before the primaries, the shadow poll became another trigger for passion. According to party sources, some governorship aspirants have also refused to give their commitment to the flag bearer. In Ogun East senatorial district, many are uncomfortable with the choice of Prince Buruji Kashamu as the senatorial candidate. His supposed rival at the primaries, former Governor Gbenga Daniel, had backed out of the race when he realised that he would be defeated. Many traditional rulers, political leaders and youths are of the opinion that a politician without a lorry-load of baggage would have been more acceptable to the zone, instead of Kashamu, who is perceived as a controversial politician. Kashamu is rich, but to the people of Ijebu/Remo, a Senatorial Zone once represented by former Afenifere leader and National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) patriach, the late Pa Abraham Adesanya, the contest is not totally about financial muscle. According to sources, the pendulum of victory may swing towards the direction of the APC candidate, Dapo Abiodun, who has been endorsed by many stakeholders, groups and associations in the district.
Edo
Edo PDP is confronted with a big obstacle. The ruling APC is waxing stronger. Governor Adams Oshiomhole has justified the confidence reposed in him as a leader liberator. Therefore, the possibility of the PDP displacing the APC is remote. Although the PDP has succeeded in wooing some chieftains, including cabinet members, the defections have not altered significantly the geo-political calculations.
PDP is suffering from self-inflicted crisis. At its recent rally in Benin City, the state capital, controversy over N1.5 billion mobilisation money broke out. A cleric-politician is said to be at the centre of the controversy. Many youths, who turned up for the rally at the Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium, cried out that they were short-changed. The dust has not settled. The controversial politician denied that he embezzled the money. The youths were, however, not satisfied with his clarification. To them, the actual amount has not been declared. The controversy rages on. Besides, many party members are still protesting the outcome of primaries in many constituencies.
Oyo
Before the primaries, many thought that the Oyo PDP had a bright future. But the shadow poll compounded the problems of the chapter. There are now four PDP factions in the Pacesetter State. The first is the mainstream PDP, which produced Senator Teslim Folarin as the candidate. The second is Accord Party (AP), led by Senator Rashidi Ladoja. The third is the Labour Party (LP), which is fielding former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala as the flag bearer. The fourth is the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which has Seyi Makinde as its candidate. Ladoja, Alao-Akala and Makinde are PDP chieftains in disguise.
The polarisation has implications for the PDP. It is now more weakened than it was four years ago. Therefore, there is no evidence to show that it can withstand the APC candidate and incumbent Governor Abiola Ajimobi at the polls.
Bayelsa
Bayelsa is the home state of President Jonathan. The governorship election will hold in the state next year. Ordinarily, next month’s general elections should be a walkover for the PDP but certain factors may make it impossible. The rift between Governor Seriake Dickson and President’s wife Dame Patience, has continued to fester. Mrs. Jonathan, who resigned as Permanent Secretary from Bayelsa State Civil Service, is not in talking terms with the governor. In fact, there were allegations that her foot soldiers were pushing for the impeachment of the governor. During his recent visit to the state, the President clarified that he is an avid supporter of the governor. The declaration has doused the tension in the party. Unless there is a genuine reconciliation, the cracks on the wall may become widened and PDP may play into the hands of the opposition.
Rivers
Between 1999 and last year, PDP was the dominant party in Rivers State. But, the tide changed, following the defection of Governor Rotimi Amaechi to the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), now APC. The APC has been growing in leaps and bounds in the state. But, the internal challenge to Chief Nyesom Wike’s candidature is almost proportional to the threat posed by the APC candidate, House of Representatives member Dakuku Peterside. Rivers is reputed for its four million bloc vote. Under the two-party system, the feat is difficult. Manipulation will be very difficult now that voters are more vigilant.
PDP has a hurdle to cross. It is the challenge of zoning. The perception is that the opposition party has violated the principle. Amaechi, an Ikwerre, had proposed power shift to the lowland area from the upland area in the spirit of fairness and justice. In his view, power shift to the area that has not enjoyed the slot for 16 years will give the area a sense of belonging. The APC has now taken up the challenge of zoning based on equity by fielding Peterside, who hails from the lowland area. This may work for the PDP at the polls.
Ondo
The PDP in Ondo State has been in pains since 2007 when it was disgraced at the polls. The late Governor Segun Agagu was defeated by the Labour Party (LP) candidate, Dr. Segun Mimiko. Since then, the PDP has not been insulated from crisis. Despite Mimiko’s return to the PDP, the crisis has not abated. Instead, his return has aggravated the crisis.
Following disagreement with the governor, some aggrieved LP chieftains had defected to the PDP. However, when the governor defected, they were back to square one. The distribution of elective offices during the primaries was based on the dichotomy of the ‘old’ and the ‘new’ PDP. Many old PDP members who had hoped to vie for parliamentary positions were compelled to sacrifice their ambitions to the defectors. In fact, the defectors led by Mimiko had upper hand because of their perceived numerical strength. In anger, some old PDP members hurriedly jumped into the APC tent. Aggrieved chieftains who have not defected are still fighting for their future. Reconciliation has been futile.
Cross River
In Cross River State, there is a gulf between Governor Liyel Imoke and other PDP gladiators. The governor has been accused of deliberately frustrating his colleague at the bar, Senate Leader Victor Ndoma-Egba, who had planned to return to the Upper Chamber. Senate President David Mark, who had anticipated the danger to Ndoma-Egba’s ambition, had offered to broker truce between the governor and Senate Leader, who are from the same senatorial district. Two days to the primaries, Mark sent his friend, Senator Tunde Ogbeha, a retired Brig-General, to Calabar, the state capital, to beg the governor. But, Imoke disagreed. The governor, sources said, was annoyed at the activities of some politicians who wanted him dead when he was hospitalised abroad. Also, the running battle between the two lawyers assumed a new dimension during the governorship primaries. Ndoma-Egba was allegedly rooting for Jeddy Agba for the slot. But Imoke and his predecessor, Donald Duke, preferred Prof. Ben Ayade. The primary election is still generating ripples. Besides, many Cross River elders are unhappy with President Jonathan for the role he placed in the ceding of some oil wells from the state to Akwa Ibom State.
Kwara
The weakest PDP chapter is the Kwara. Following the defection of Senator Bukola Saraki, Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed and other big wigs to the APC, the party became a shadow of itself. There is acrimony in the decimated chapter over the emergence of Senator Simeon Ajibola as the governorship candidate. Many PDP leaders believe that his candidature cannot fly. In fact, the senator rode on the back of the Saraki political family to fame. Since his emergence as the candidate, other aspirants slowed down on their mobilisation for the party.
