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  • Nigerian equities will remain bearish, say analysts

    Nigerian equities will remain bearish, say analysts

    Nigerian equities will remain on the downtrend in the months ahead as quoted companies grapple with macroeconomic challenges and investors gauge the continuing impact of the declining crude oil price and political transition on the economic outlook.

    Investment pundits said quoted equities would in the immediate months continue on the downward trend, although share prices may recover in the latter months of the year.

    Nigerian equities lost N1.75 trillion last year, representing average full-year decline of 16.14 per cent.

    Analysts at Bismarck Rewane’s Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) in their latest review stated that quoted equities would struggle with local and global challenges this year, leaving the market mostly on the negative in the first half.

    “The Nigerian stock market may be in for a prolonged stay in the bear territory due to mounting global and domestic uncertainties. In 2015, a lower return trajectory is anticipated since the market is in for a bumpy ride and some companies would be left behind,” FDC stated.

    According to analysts, the stock market is expected to dwindle further all through the first half and subsequently bounce back in the second half of the year.

    Analysts noted that the likely increases in the United States and euro zone interest rates raises the threats of capital flow reversal and erosion of funds from the equity markets, which, in addition to growing macroeconomic risks, may result in a series of adjustments and prompt a cohesive movement of sectors and stocks prices.

    “The year 2015 is expected to be a mixed year for the equities market as the outcome of a plethora of external and internal events unfold. A possible interest rate hike in the United States and the possibility of a sustained period of low oil prices are significant risks. The outcome of the 2015 elections would also determine investors’ participation and sentiments. The anticipated loosening monetary stance of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) post elections will also have its impact on price and currency stability,” FDC stated.

    They pointed out that returns in 2015 will depend on selecting the right companies in the right sectors, rather than relying on a broad-based approach that depends on the gathering momentum of the overall market position.

    They said the performance of the market might be coloured by the general elections starting on February 14.

    According to analysts, in addition to the global oil market dynamics, the prospects of the Nigerian economy in 2015 hinges on the electoral calendar, and this will mainly determine the macroeconomic outlook during the year.

    “With stocks currently trading at their multi-year lows, we expect an upward trend in the beginning of the year. The anticipated loose monetary stance will be expected to channel additional liquidity to the stock market. However, Investors sentiment will be weighed down by political tensions leading to the 2015 general elections. The tension between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its major opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) is expected to lead to a lull in the equities market as investors, mostly foreign evaluate the electoral process and outcome whilst fearing post-election violence. Foreign portfolio investors are expected to remain wary of the local bourse until the elections are concluded and possible violent fallouts curbed,” analysts pointed out.

    They noted that with oil prices projected to trend between $50-$70, the global crude price will be negative for the Nigerian economy and in turn the capital market, with the oil stocks expected to bear the brunt of declining oil prices given the thinning out of the sectors profitability.

    Besides, analysts noted that as the US economy gains traction, there could be an increase in interest rates in 2015, which is expected to have a negative effect on emerging and frontier economies. This will lead to heavy portfolio reversals, as investors will opt for safety and security in a much developed market. This may lead to a selloff in local equities as foreign investors exit. However, this may be cushioned by increased participation of local investors as stocks become increasingly attractive.

    “The state of security in the country especially in the north eastern part of Nigeria continues to be worrying. Its effect continues to weigh on the profitability of consumer goods companies as consumer spending in these areas remains weak. It has also in-creased the cost of doing business in these areas. Profits that will be declared, if any, in the financial year 2014 by most companies are likely to be below investors expectation. Most sectors; banking, consumers, oil and gas, conglomerates will not be insulated,” analysts said.

    Analysts said the macroeconomic outlook will likely change significantly depending on the outcome of the general elections, pointing out that 2015 will be distinctly divided into different phases including pre-election phase, handover phase and post-election phase.

    In the pre-election phase, policymaking will be overshadowed by political campaigns and the elections in this period. As a result, most macroeconomic indicators are likely to be influenced by speculative market activities to hedge any unfavourable outcome. The intensity of political activities towards the election could increase security concerns and result in the hike of consumer prices, dampen economic output as well as growth. This is likely to have negative impact on investors’ confidence and increase dollar demand pressure.

    Analysts noted that the immediate period after the elections would still be overshadowed by concerns as parties debate the election results. These challenges will likely affect the macro environment and policies options while the level and intensity of uncertainties will heighten the level of insecurity in most part of the country. Hence, movement and transport of goods and services become difficult leading to an uptick in the inflation rate to above 10 per cent and poor economic output. Investors’ confidence is likely to also decline and lead to an increase in currency pressures as the naira slides to N190-195/$ at the interbank market.

    “In general, the Nigerian macroeconomic environment is expected to be mixed and highly influenced by developments in the global oil and financial markets. However, the medium and long term prospects of the Nigerian economy depend on developments in the oil section, political events as well as enforcement of tax compliance to boost revenue,” analysts stated.

    ‘’One of the positives apart from the obvious that the Nigerian economy has to be less dependent on oil is that prices in the stock market may have hit rock bottom. Current stock prices appear attractive at the moment, but we advise cautious investing with a focus on long term value as opposed to speculating and searching for short term gains. We also expect some volatility over the coming months until after elections. A return to normalcy, the stability in oil prices and the Naira will return some calm to the markets’’.

     

  • Sambo reconciles aggrieved Kebbi PDP chieftains

    Sambo reconciles aggrieved Kebbi PDP chieftains

    Vice President Namadi Sambo has reconciled aggrieved members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who have protested the outcome of governorship and National Assembly primaries in Kebbi State.

    Sambo, who held peace meetings with the chieftains in Birnin-Kebbi, the state capital, advised them to bury their differences and work for the success of the party at the polls.

    The Vice President , who spoke with reporters after the meeting, assured that peace has returned to the chapter.

    He said: “After the meeting with PDP stakeholders and all the aspirants in the state, we have now reconciled and the aspirants have agreed to work toward the progress of the party.

    “All the aspirants have won the election as none will be left alone. We would give every member a true sense of belonging.”

    Sambo praised the Federal Government for its development efforts nationwide, stressing that it has provided six states with standard airports.

    He commended Governor Saidu Dakingari for improving the education sector, adding that the healthcare policy of the state government had improved health care delivery, especially for women and children.

    He said the establishment of a  federal university in the state has demonstrated government’s determination to improve tertiart education.

    The Vice President promised that the Federal Government would establish a rice processing mill in the state, in recognition of the state government’s efforts to boost commercial production.

    Sambo added: “President Goodluck Jonathan has directed me to extend his gratitude to PDP members in the state for their cooperation and amicable resolution of disputes.’’

    Dakingari commended the Vice President for resolving the crisis in the party.

    He called on PDP members to work toward the development of the party.

    The governor promised that efforts would be intensified to ensure victory for the party in the general elections.

    He said: “If we remain united and work together, we would defeat the opposition.”

    The PDP governorship candidate, Gen. Bello Sarkin-Yaki, promised to work closely with aspirants, who contested with him in the primaries.

    He also enjoined members to workd for the success of the party at the polls.

  • Lagos PDP primaries defective, says Obanikoro

    Lagos PDP primaries defective, says Obanikoro

    • I went to court to protest injustice

    Former Lagos State Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship aspirant Senator Musiliu Obanikoro has reflected on the governorship primaries, insisting that the process was defective.

    The former Minister of State for Defence said he embraced reconciliation because the interest of the party is greater than the ambition of members. But, he said he went to court so that thye mistake will not be repeated in the future.

    Obanikoro spoke on a live television programme in Lagos on the flawed shadow poll, his rejection of the results and recourse to litigation to protest the injustice. He maintained that the number of votes were more than the number of accredited delegates, adding that the discrepancy dented the image of the chapter.

    Explaining why he went to court to protest the flawed process, he said: I fought against a process that was not transparent to make the necessary correction. I went to court to correct that. The number of votes was 867. The delegates were 806. Our vision is for a greater Lagos. We needed to clean up the process. Whatever we do today can serve as a precedent. We want those coming behind us to have a worthy legacy to emulate.

    “We went to court and the leadership of the party intervened. I can assure you. We are not going to have a repeat of that in Lagos State. We have taken this to the highest level of our party leadership. We will not have a repeat of this where figures will change without explanation.”

    Obanikoro, who said politicians must not sacrifice the collective interest of their parties on the alter of personal ambition, warned against the danger of faulty primaries.

    He said, for the first time in the history of the Lagos PDP, members did not defect to another party in protest because of the flawed primaries.

    The former minister, however, clarified between what he described as a process that is tainted and a process that is illegal. He said: “Can you build legally on an illegal land? When we say something is tainted, it does not mean that it is illegal. We can remember the election of George Bush and Al Gore in the Unites States. The Supreme Court said otherwise. The society is bigger than individuals. Look at the election of Kennedy and Richard Nixon. But, the leadership preserved the country for patriotic reasons.”

    The politician said a flawed primary cannot always be avoided because of human errors. He added: “There is no perfect condition of humanity. It is continuous. We must continue to find solution.”

    Obanikoro dismissed the rumour that he agreed to support the flag bearer, Mr. Jimi Agbaje, because he was promised a ministerial position. He said President Goodluck Jonathan reserved the right to determine the person that will become a minister.

    The former minister spoke on the challenge of next year’s election, stressing that the PDP can only win the battle, if it is united.

    He stressed: “To win Lagos, we must be united. We want a government that will constructively engage the Federal Government.”

    Obanikoro also highlighted conditions for a hitch-free elections, saying that post-electoral violence can be averted. He added: “The leadership on both sides must embrace peace and their body language must lead to that. We need peace and tranquility to move Nigeria forward.”

  • PDP begins campaigns in Edo

    The Edo State chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has begun the campaigns for its candidates in next month’s general elections.

    At the campaigns’ kick-off in Akoko-Edo and Estako West, PDP State Chairman Dan Orbih accused the state government of financial recklessness.

    Orbih said the All Progressives Congress (APC) administration had turned the State House in Benin into a “theatre of expensive shit”.

    The PDP chairman urged Edo residents to vote out the APC.

    He said: “They don’t mean well for the people.

    “Corruption and impunity have become the norm in Oshiomhole’s government; hence, he continues to think of ‘creative’ ways to bleed the state.

    “Voting in a PDP-controlled House of Assembly will stop this haemorrhage.”

  • Controversy over N21b PDP campaign fund

    Controversy over N21b PDP campaign fund

    There seems to be no end to the criticisms that have assailed the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) campaign fund-raising that fetched a record N21.05 billion. The cash exceeds the mandatory N1 billion stipulated by the Electoral Act. Besides, the majority of donors are not identifiable. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the renewed push for monetisation of politics by the ruling party and its implications for the general elections.  

    The unprecedented Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) fund-raising is still generating ripples. Even, under the power loaded former President Olusegun Obasanjo, the ruling party managed to exercise caution, in utter sensitivity to wide condemnation and public outcry it would have provoked.

    On December 20, the Banquet Hall of the Presidential Villa, Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), was aglow with festivities. The National Party leader, President Goodluck Jonathan, presided over a special meeting of political investors. With him were his deputy and co-beneficiary, Vice President Namadi Sambo, Senate President David Mark, House of Representatives Deputy Speaker Emeka Ihedioha, the National Chairman, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, the Board of Trustees (BoT) Chairman, Chief Tony Anenih, governors, legislators, and other party chieftains.

    Unlike the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential campaign fund-raiser, which is moderated by the national mood, the PDP event, which observers have described as ill-advised, obscene, and aggressive campaign revenue drive, underscored the wheeling and dealing character of the party and its inept government, and their penchant for the abuse of the democratic process. While the PDP made donation to campaign fund the exclusive affair of government contractors and other Nigerians who have made money from government, the APC adopted the style of a mass movement. Through this approach, donors to the presidential campaign of the APC candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, is to a large extent, verifiable.

    APC National Vice Chairman Senator Lawal Shuaib called for sanction for those who may have stolen public money for political campaigns. He said the opposition party will be a marked departure from the fraudulent trend of campaign funding. “In our own case, we intend to do fund raising, which is going to be very transparent. Whoever donates money, we will publish it so that the whole world will see. People are making donations through the website and through the account number provided. We are going to publish everything because we want to make our source of funding as transparent as Nigerians may not even have expected because we are talking about change. We want to change the ayatems and the practices and what has been the norm,”he added.

    In a public advertisement, APC National Publicity Secretary Alhaji Lai Mohammed, said the party has yielded to the decision of Nigerians to make voluntary donation. He made the bank account name and number public. “Our party, the APC, has recently been inundated with calls and messages from Nigerians at home and in the Diaspora, who are seeking to confirm the bank account details of the Buhari Support Organisation so that they can make their own financial contributions to the campaign of the APC presidential candidate,” he said.

    According to reports, more than N21.05 billion was realised at the “gathering of few and wealthy friends of the PDP government.” The timing of the event has been faulted by many Nigerians. A legal luminary, Chief Niyi Akintola (SAN), said the huge sum was raised in the aid of President Goodluck Jonathan’s re-election bid at a time 14 state governments could not pay monthly salaries. Former Kaduna State Governor Balarabe Musa frowned at the act of perfidy, saying that there was a naira rain at the Aso Rock Villa at a time many Nigerians could not afford three square meals.

    Other critics said the flamboyant hunt for campaign funds smacked of indifference to the plight of the distressed people ravaged by terrorism. Irked by the gross insensitivity, human rights activist Nelson Ekunjimi said the PDP Federal Government is raising money for re-election when the country is passing through multiple crises, which the President has failed to tackle. He said the sole pre-occupation of the ruling party is the general election at a time two states are being annexed by terrorists, who hoist their flags in captured towns and territories, thereby challenging the national sovereignty. Ekunjimi, the Director of the Centre for Rights and Grassroots Initiative (CRGI), pointed out that money was being raised to sustain Dr. Jonathan in power when internally displaced persons suffering from the Boko Haram insurgency are denied succour. “How do you want the parents of the abducted Chibok girls to feel? Can they be happy and enthusiastic about fund-raiser when the fate of their loved ones hangs in the balance? The insensitivity and aloofness is even underscored by the fact that the President did not deem it fit to mention the plight of the abducted Chibok girls in his new year message to the nation,” he added.

    The pattern of scandalous donation is shrouded in secrecy and controversy. The question is: who are the donors? Beyond their broad description as fair-weather friends of the President, top party chieftains, government contractors and businessmen, the actual identities of the donors are concealed. Critics have alleged that the few, whose identities were revealed, are government contractors and those whose sources of money are traceable to government. But, since the PDP has also converted the electioneering period into a season of investment and brisk business, political investors, who hope to garner returns on their investment, also dominated the festival of strategic revenue generation.

    The ceremony was chaired by the wealthy Chairman of Skye Bank, Mr. Tunde Ayeni, one of the big names in the telecommunication sub-sector. His donation came in two parts. Apart from donating N1 billion on behalf of himself, he donated another N1 billion on behalf of friends, whose identities are not known. At that stage, the ceremony should have ended  because the N2 billion has exceeded the presidential election expenses anticipated by the Electoral Act.  A group, the Civil Society Network Against Corruption (CSNAC), pointed out that the PDP deliberately contravened Section 91 (2) of the 2010 Electoral Act (as amended), which states that “the maximum election expenses to be incurred by a candidate at a presidential election shall be N1 billion.”

    Other donors clearly have partisan motives. A PDP sympathiser from Kwara State, Mrs. Bola Shagaya, friend of the First Lady, Mrs. Patience Jonathan, donated N5 billion. She is an active player in the oil  and gas industry. The donation was on behalf of herself and her “unidentified friends.” Senator Jerry Gana, former university don, prominent politician and permanent friend of any government in power, donated N5 billion. The Niger State born politician has an enormous investment in the energy sector as a beneficiary of privatisation. Concern has been mounting over the fate of Power Holding Company of Nigeria, which has been sold to private operators. But, people were confused when the government that sold the edifice proposed to arrange out a controversial bail out for the power sector to the tune of N213 billion. The 15 states on the board of the Niger Delta Development Commission donated N15 million.

    Twenty-one PDP governors led by Akwa Ibom State Governor Godswill Akpabio coughed out N1.05 billion. Each of the governors donated N50 m.  In Musa’s view, this is scandalous. “If civil servants are agonising over the non-payment of salaries and their governors are participating in the donation jamboree in Abuja, it is worrisome,” he said. However, other donations by consortium of firms and operators in critical sectors are also scandalous. The motivation for a donation of N500 million by the power sector, which has generated more darkness than electricity in recent years, was unknown. So was the construction sector, which has contributed to the failure of government to adequately fight the infrastructure battle. The sector donated N500 million, despite the complaints by the operators that they could not complete the contracts awarded by governments because it has failed in its financial obligations. Sources said that pressures were mounted on other wealthy businessmen and big contractors who depend on the government for economic survival. Although many of them were not convinced, they yielded because they thought that non-compliance was risky for their business interest.

    In Musa’s view, the fund-raising reflected the monetisation of politics by PDP leaders, adding that it smacked of irresponsibility. He said the PDP has corrupted the electoral process by its plan to woo the voters with money. Musa said the motivation for raising the huge amount should be investigated by the anti-graft body. “It is money stolen from the government. The money could not have been donated by someone who earned it legitimately. They are monies stolen from the public fund. Can they say the money is from their pocket? My advice is that those who stole public funds should not go away with it,” he added. Besides, the long-term implications of the pre-election activities should not be glossed over. “Are they not donating because of what they hope to reap after the election? If a contractor is donating to the party of government in power, how can the government which accepts the donation frown when the contract is not executed? Can the government insist on contract execution by its corrupt ally, who is a contractor?”, he queried.

    Akintola, who shared this opinion, lamented that political leaders have elevated 2015 general elections over and above the collective survival of the country. He maintained that it is wrong for governors to donate huge sums to the campaign fund, when workers are protesting the non-payment of salaries. “My own concern is the way we elevate politics over and above the economy and security. Nigerians are suffering in millions. People are not living well. The standard of living has fallen. Twenty four states cannot pay salaries. They are begging workers to be patient. Yet, some people contributed N21 b. This amount can pay the salaries of workers in many states.

    “They should have human face. We are preparing for elections. We are nit concerned about the existence of Nigerians. Political parties are dancing on the grave of poor Nigerians.”

    For elder statesman Alhaji Lateef Jakande, the PDP’s penchant for monetisation of the electioneering is condemnable. The former Lagos State governor said the move to financially intimidate the oppositio is a bad omen for democracy. He said, if it is established that the money was not stolen from the public treasury, there is no cause for alarm. However, the former Works Minister said, if the source of the money is not clean, it is to the discredit of the government which is benefiting from questionable sources of money. “It is a dangerous sign for the future to monetise our politics to that extent. It is very bad,” he added. Jakande advised the opposition to avoid scandal during the electioneering. His words: “My advice is that other political parties should not emulate the PDP. They should do better. The masses are the most important people during elections. My appeal to the APC and other political parries is to mobilise the masses in a rational way without financial inducement.”

    APC chieftain Chief Rafiu Jafojo, who was Jakande’s deputy in the Second Republic, said it its wrong for the PDP to intimidate other parties with its capacity to raise huge money. He said the next election is not about “naira or dollar war,” but about issues. Predicting that the power of money will crumble during the election, he said Nigerians are now wiser.  Jafojo queried: “What do they need the money for? Where is the money coming for? Who are the donors? Nigerians need the full list of donors.”

    Afenifere Deputy Leader Senator Ayo Fasanmi frowned at the fund-raising, saying that the N21 b is scandalous. He queried: “N21 billion for what? Do you want to purchase the votes of the people? The naira is in shambles. What is the money for?.” Fasanmi chided the PDP for wasting public funds on trivialities, adding that no amount of financial power can stop power shift in next elections. The elder statesman added:  “It is scandalous in a nation that cannot pay monthly salaries to workers. They have monetised the process. It is not good for democracy. It is undesirable. People are taking notes. N21 billion for one person in a country where people can’t have three square meals? They are over-stretching people’s patience. “In 2015, their money cannot prevent progressives from taking power. Buhari and Osinbajo will rule this country. The next election is about the struggle for redemption, not about raining billions. No amount of billions can save the PDP from electoral catastrophe. People are ready. It will be one man, one vote.

    CSNAC asked Muazu to release the full list of donors. Its Programme Manager, Adeola Abiodun, said the group made the request under the Freedom of Information Act. He said the reports on the sources of the money donated and the identities of the contributors are vague. “Section 93 of the Electoral Act makes anonymous donation untenable,” he pointed out.  The rights activist said the concealment of the important information undermines the legality and legitimacy of the electoral and democratic process. “It is necessary to provide the information to curtail the risk of corruption during the campaign,” he added.

  • As Akwa Ibom PDP aspirants return to court today

    As Akwa Ibom PDP aspirants return to court today

    Next week, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will close the window for the replacement of candidates. The 22 aggrieved Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship aspirants in Akwa Ibom State are hopeful that, as they return to the court today, victory will come their way, writes OLUKOREDE YISHAU

    Udom Emmanuel, former  Secretary to Akwa Ibom State Government (SSG), passes through the fire again today. The case instituted against his emergence as the Akwa Ibom Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate by one of the 22 aggrieved governorship aspirants, Ime Effiong Ekanem, comes up today before Justice Y. Halilu of the High Court of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The suit has the support of all the aggrieved aspirants.

    Justice Halilu mid-last month ordered the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) not to recognise Emmanuel as the PDP governorship candidate for Akwa Ibom State. The former SSG thereafter got a vacation judge to lift the order.

    Since the case was instituted, Governor Godswill Akpabio has tried to rein in the aggrieved, but they say his efforts are not sincere. The G-22, as the aggrieved aspirants are known, include two men who were Akpabio’s deputy, Patrick Ekpotu and Nsima Ekere. They were invited for a meeting in Uyo yesterday. But, last Friday they made it clear they would not be party to such a meeting. The aspirants noted that it was wrong for them to appear before an amorphous reconciliation committee while their complaints were still pending before a duly recognised appeal panel of PDP.

    The reconciliation committee, headed by Senator Effiong Bob, in a one-page advertorial, published on Friday invited the 22 aspirants to a peace meeting in Uyo on Sunday.

    The first paragraph of the invitation letter read:” The above Committee was constituted by the state Caucus of the Peoples Democratic Party on Sunday December 28, 2014 with the aim of meeting with all the Governorship Aspirants who were not successful in the last Governorship Primary Election held on December 8, 2014 with a view to harmoniously reconciling issues arising from the election.”

    The reconciliatory meeting failed to achieve its aim as members of the group, individually and collectively refused to meet with Bob and his committee, giving various reasons among which was that Bob was a biased umpire. They also feel the wordings of the invitation letter gave the impression that the committee had already taken a position by referring to the 22 aspirants as those who were “not successful in the last governorship primary election”.

    According to a member of the group, who would not want to be named, “Senator Effiong Bob is part of the problem, so, it would be inappropriate for him to chair a committee that would address the discord. He was in Rt. Hon. Okpolupm Etteh’s camp, and then jumped to Ime Albert’s camp before he finally joined forces with both the governor and his anointed.”

    The aspirant added: “In fact, after the contentious primary, Senator Bob addressed several media interviews where he defended the exercise as credible free and fair. With such mindset what kind of resolution do you expect from such an individual? He goes about with the governor and Udom. He actually accompanied both of them to the meeting we had with the governor were they pleaded that we accept the outcome of the controversial and vexatious primary. Sincerely, we wouldn’t have been part of such a cosmetic meeting with a possible predetermined objective, so we individually turned him down when he called to invite us. See, we don’t have parochial agenda; our struggle for justice is solely for the overall interest and success of our dear party, PDP. And everybody who truly loves PDP should stand by us to see that the will of the people is not subverted.”

    The G-22, in a statement, spelt out their case against the Bob committee.

    The statement reads: “We take great exception to the contemptuous display of continuous impunity in the issue of PDP governorship primary election of December 8, 2014 in Akwa Ibom State. Our arraignment before the purported Central Reconciliation Committee negates the provisions of PDP constitution and guidelines, concerning the governorship primary election.

    “It is instructive to inform all that on December 9, 2014, in accordance with paragraph 20(g and I) of the PDP Electoral Guidelines for Primary Election, we have individually filed our complaints against the flawed electoral processes of December 8, 2014 with the stipulated appeal panel, the Gubernatorial Electoral Appeal Panel, consisting of all members of the National Working Committee (NWC) and headed by the National Chairman. This we clearly did within 24 hours demanded of us by paragraph 20(h) of the guidelines.

    “In the above circumstances, it is very preposterous to be summoned to appear before a panel of our traducers. It is on record that the members of the so called Central Reconciliation Committee were active participants and accessories before, during and after the illegalities surrounding the flawed primary election we have complained about. We can therefore not make ourselves available to be used to regularise a flawed process and achieve a conclusion we already know.”

    Before the attempt by the Bob committee, there was another meeting in the G-22’s secretariat in Abuja which lasted till the wee hours of Saturday, December 20. The meeting, a source said, was almost deadlocked from the beginning. A shouting match, said a source at the meeting, ensued between one of the aspirants, Chief Assam Assam (SAN) and the governor. There was palpable apprehension at the meeting, according to one the aspirants who would not want to be named, as a result of the fracas between Akpabio and Assam, who was Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice.

    The governor pleaded with them to accept Emmanuel as the governorship candidate of the PDP, a position that was outrightly rejected by the group on the basis that “the process that threw him up was faulty, not transparent and toxic. The December 8 exercise was everything but democratic and this has resulted in several litigations which ought not to be had the process passed credibility test”. They insisted that President Goodluck Jonathan must be involved in any effort to resolve the impasse.

    As a result of the impasse, uncertainty has enveloped the polity. The topic of discourse at many public places centered on the coming elections, especially the governorship election in the state. Many openly expressed their displeasure over what they regard as the “arrogance and impunity” of some highly-placed political office holders in the state, who they accused of being behind the unhealthy political climate in Akwa Ibom State few weeks to next month’s election.

    The concern by many is that unless the ruling PDP puts its house in order, it would most likely be throwing away the chances to retain the governorship seat it has held for 16 years. The PDP’s prospect of losing its hold in the state becomes more worrisome to its supporters, according to followers of political developments in the state due to the obvious ground it is losing, especially after a series of events that took place shortly before, and also after the party’s primary election.

    First, it was one of the front role governorship aspirants and former Secretary to the State Government, Umana Umana, who left the party to join forces with the rival All Progressive Congress (APC), where he is now a governorship candidate, in a straight contest with his former party, PDP, come February. And many believe that should PDP not resolve the discord that arose from the December 8, 2014 primary, the tide might flow in favour of the APC as not a few PDP faithful have vowed to vote against their party.

    Few days ago, the media was awash with a report that the group had agreed to meet with the presidential candidate of the APC, General Muhammadu Buhari , with a view to defecting, the group however, swiftly denied the allegation, describing the insinuation as a blackmail. Though they denied planning such a meeting, they said it was an option “that would not be thrown away in a hurry”.

    In a jointly signed statement released on Tuesday, December 23, last year, in Abuja, the 22 aspirants reiterated that their only request from the PDP leadership was for the party to redeem its credibility by nullifying the outcome of the December 8 exercise in the state, which they described as “ fraudulent, not transparent and a violation of the party’s rule on accreditation of delegates”.

    The aspirants vowed not to be “blackmailed or intimidated into jettisoning our legitimate quest for fair play, equity and justice in a democratic setting that ought to be rooted in fundamental human rights to fair hearing.”

    They went further to state “that while having meetings with any individual or interest group is within our legitimate rights, and something that would not be thrown away in a hurry, we as faithful members of the PDP remain hopeful that the party will show leadership and responsibility in ensuring that grievances of its members are always expeditiously addressed and policy of inclusiveness pursued in the overall interest of the party, essentially in an election period like this”.

    To Akpabio, the process which produced Udom was transparent. He congratulated the Chairman of the Electoral Panel of PDP, Mr. Bola Ayebowale, and members of the PDP for a successful conduct of the primaries, adding that Emmanuel’s victory was assured.

    The governor said more than 99 per cent of PDP faithful came out to vote, stressing that the state would do the same by giving Jonathan their full support in 2015. Akpabio added that the transparency of the election was an indication that peace thrives in the state.

    Speaking after the primary, Emmanuel said the people have ushered him into the next level, thanking Akpabio and the people for coming out en-mass to support him. He lauded the PDP for the peaceful conduct of the primary.

    Oyebowale also said the process was transparent, explaining that PDP believes in a level-playing ground for all aspirants.

    To the aspirants, Oyebowale, Akpabio and Emmanuel can tell that to the marines. Feelers from party indicate the President and some individuals in the top echelon of the PDP leadership are showing interest in finding a way around the crisis, because whatever affects the party in the states will obviously underline the prospect of the president.

    But, as the January 16 window for substitution of candidates submitted to the INEC draws to a close, it is yet to be known if the PDP will explore it. It is also not clear what the court will decide. For now, it is Emmanuel in Akwa Ibom.

  • Feb Poll: Tension in PDP over INEC deadline

    Feb Poll: Tension in PDP over INEC deadline

    Candidates sweat over possible names substitution 

    Fear now pervades the camps of many PDP governorship and State assembly candidates as the clock ticks towards the deadline for the withdrawal/replacement of nominees by the political parties.

    The emergence of the party’s governorship candidates in Borno, Imo and Ogun in particular, is being hotly contested by those who felt short-changed  while the winners of the primaries are lobbying hard to ensure that they are not dropped at the last minute.

    Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) deadline for the parties to withdraw/replace candidates for the governorship/state House of Assembly elections is Tuesday, January 13 – 45 days before the election as stipulated  by Section 35 of the Electoral Act,2012 (as amended).

    The names of the candidates as submitted by the various parties are now on display at INEC offices across the country with the final list expected to be posted on January 14.

    Sources at the Abuja national headquarters of the party told The Nation that some of the names earlier submitted to INEC may be substituted following “certain considerations and circumstances in a few states.”

    “The situation as we speak is such that nobody can say specifically if we will still make changes or not. Candidates can still be withdrawn or substituted according to the commission’s deadlines. Where necessary, we will make use of this opportunity.

    “We have some dicey situations on our hand. We have issues in Ogun, Borno, Imo, Zamfara, Akwa Ibom and so on. While we are using our internal mechanism to handle some of these matters, some are already in court. Some of these cases may be determined before the expiration of the deadline.

    “Where this happens, we will have to respect the rule of law. There are also instances where certain resolutions have been made to satisfy all sections in the state and resolve differences. We will also have to implement such resolutions before the deadline,” one source, a member of the party’s National Working Committee (NWC), said.

    It was also learnt that the party has been receiving petitions and complaints from states urging it to redress certain anomalies by changing its candidates if it intends to win the 2015 elections. This has created anxiety amongst candidates of the party.Candidates of the PDP in Zamfara State are jittery following the inability of the party to conduct governorship primaries on or before December 8 as stipulated   by INEC.

    Rival parties have told   INEC to respect its own rules by rejecting any late submission of nomination by the PDP.

    Some PDP aspirants are also kicking against the party’s choice of candidates in several states, citing alleged illegalities in the primaries.

    The Nation learnt talks are currently on between the national leadership of the party and the aggrieved aspirants on how best to resolve the crisis and prevent other political parties from cashing in on the situation to rubbish the PDP.

    In Borno State, a group of indigenes under the auspices of ‘Borno Coalition for Good Governance’ said Alhaji Gambo Lawan, who won the party’s governorship primaries in the state, will take legal action over his substitution with another candidate.It was reported that Borno PDP stakeholders met in Abuja at the weekend and substituted Alhaji Lawan with Alhaji Mohammed Imam, who is believed to have the backing of the former governor, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff.

    The group, in a statement jointly signed by its Chairman, Modu Wulgo, and Secretary, John Ndirbula, said Lawan will seek legal redress for the ‘injustice’ done to him.

    The Nation learnt that although a reconciliation committee has been instituted to look into the crisis created by the development in Borno State, Lawan’s camp has refused to meet with the committee, preferring instead to seek redress in court as being championed by eminent PDP chieftains in the state.

    “The Borno case is one situation where the party may go back on its decision. From all indications, Lawan is the choice of the majority of party leaders and the party cannot go against its own chieftains,” our source said.

    Senator Ifeanyi Araraume is claiming to be the authentic governorship candidate and has gone to flag off his campaign.

    The INEC list on display in Owerri shows the name of the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha, as the PDP governorship candidate.

    Comrade Chris Udensi, an associate of Ararume, said the last is yet to be heard of the matter as Ararume remains the candidate of the party, having won the primaries last month.

    “That was why we flagged off our campaign during the week. Don’t be deceived by the appearance of Ihedioha’s name on any list. Imo PDP knows its candidate and we will not relent until the right thing is done,” he said.

    But the director general of Ihedioha campaign, Mr. Chris Okewulonu, said yesterday that the people of the state  “know the conspirators and their sponsors are wickedly out to  deny Imo State of good governance” by  Ihedioha.

    Confusion still reigns in the Ogun State chapter of the party   over the absence of some names alleged to have been pencilled down as candidates by the national leadership of the party, as part of a reconciliation effort, on the list.

    Former Governor Gbenga Daniel and several others who made the PDP “unity list” for the 2015 general election in Ogun State are missing on INEC’s candidates’ list.

    Daniel had, in a statement by his media aide, Ayo Giwa, said he was directed to run for the Ogun East Senatorial seat by the PDP National Working Committee(NWC) to ensure the party’s success in the state and that a “unity list” of candidates cutting across all interest groups in the state had been drawn up.

    The name of Alhaji Gboyega Isiaka appeared on the list as the party’s state governorship candidate. Before the primaries that produced Isiaka, the national leadership of the party, through its National Working Committee, had directed its state chapter not to hold the primary.

    National Publicity Secretary, Olisa Metuh, said in the directive that, “For the avoidance of doubt, the NWC hereby states that it did not authorise any governorship primary in Ogun State.

    “Consequently, any such exercise held in Ogun State is hereby declared null and void and of no effect. A new date will be communicated for the primary.” But the directive was ignored as the party, led by its Chairman, Mobilising Committee in the South-West, elected Isiaka at the primary.

    Defending the decision to shift the date for the submissions of list of governorship and state Assembly candidates only, Chief Press Secretary to the INEC Chairman, Kayode Idowu, noted that it was not an extension but rather a shift which was agreed at during the meeting of the commission and leaders of political parties who asked for the observance of Christmas day as free day.

    “This new date is not an extension in any way. It was just a one-day shift because the Christmas (break) was asked for by the political parties. They felt it was not convenient for them to rush to INEC on Christmas day to submit list of their candidates and the commission granted them that request,” he said.

  • 2015 elections: INEC has been compromised, says Junaid Mohammed

    2015 elections: INEC has been compromised, says Junaid Mohammed

    Dr. Junaid Mohammed, a Russian-trained medical doctor was chairman of different Committees at the House of Representatives in the Second Republic. In this interview with KOLADE ADEYEMI, the maverick politician who has served Nigeria in different capacities alleged that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Presidency, Police, Department of Security Services (DSS), military and other para-military agencies billed to ensure free and fair elections have perfected plans to rig the 2015 elections in favour of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. He urged Nigerians to resist this move by standing up to defend their votes at the polls.
    Excerpts:

    o you agree with the latest statement credited to President Goodluck Jonathan that the 2015 elections will be free and fair?

    First and foremost, I speak as an independent person, and I also believe that as a democrat, I must have respect, and participate in the democratic process. Simply put, democracy is nothing but election. This election must be free, fair and credible. Once you accept that democracy is good; then even the elections are even better, because democratic systems can only work when the democratic institutions allow it to work; and that in itself, also is premised on the open and honest understanding of the needs of democracy and the desires of the people of Nigeria for democratic system. Now, I have always complained that there is problem with the Nigerian elite. So, unless the political class is serious and that means that the manifestation of their seriousness is reflected in the behavioural utterances and commitment of the political parties. I cannot say how we can have what we can call credible and rancour-free election. It is obvious to me that democracy needs to be institutionalized; and democratic free and credible elections must be institutionalized-that calls into being the assumed good behaviour of first and foremost the Commission that is involved in the election (that is INEC), the Police, the other security agencies that is involved in the elections-the SSS and the military police, immigration services and all the para-militaries. Now, but where, ab initio, you have no faith in INEC, because I am one of those who have no faith in INEC

    Why don’t you believe that INEC can conduct credible elections in 2015?

    Yes, I take this position because INEC has become highly politicized; it is being governed by a Chairman and all other members who are card-carrying members of the PDP. I have been saying this before 2011; I have been saying this since 2011. Now, there is no way you can assume non-partisanship, impartiality and good conscience in the conduct of election even when it is being ran by the most competent people you can pick around and allow them to be umpires. So, if the umpire is already, ab initio, tempted by partisanship, if the government is in cohort with the party, its own party and INEC, then, really, I think he (President Jonathan) is  asking too much to say that people are going to have to live with the consequences of  an election being conducted by the party and INEC. It is also obvious that election in this country have been tempted over the years by corruption, open intimidation, abuse of office and abuse of security agencies, particularly, the police.

    You have emphasized much on the Police in terms of electoral corruption. What is your grouse with the current leadership of the Nigeria Police Force?

    Now, we have in the Police Force, the most … (expletive) Inspector-General of Police in the history of Nigeria. Can you expect this fellow (Suleiman Abba) to conduct elections freely and fairly-the man who could have the guts to go into the National Assembly and tear-gas the principal officers and other members of the National Assembly! Do you expect free and fair elections under this fellow? The answer is no! Now, when you also go further, you find out that members of the so-called DSS are now behaving no better than political thugs-they are political thugs! The kind of statements being issued by Marilyn Ogar are in fact, sometimes, more irresponsible than the statements you get from Olisah Metuh, Publicity Secretary of the PDP. Now, if this is the kind of characters we have in the so-called non-partisan security agencies, now what do you expect from those forces which are openly partisan. So, I am not a believer in what the elite say; I believe in judging the people in power by what they do and not by what they say; because if you judge them by what they do, you are likely to come out with the kind of attitude and the kind of scenario that will pervade and prevail and facilitate universally accepted free and fair election.

    How do we ensure that Nigeria gets it right in terms of universally accepted rancour-free and fair elections?

    You see, these are the kind of things reasonable politicians and patriots will want to discuss; but you can see even in the cause of attempting to discuss the issue, PDP is playing games,  Now, if they didn’t want to discuss the topic, how do you expect them to carry out their own commitment in achieving free and fair elections? How do you expect them to give free-hand to their police, their … (expletives) DSS, their … (expletives) Armed Forces and other services-what are you telling me? My advice is this, Nigerians should be vigilant and take whatever step necessary to defend the integrity of their votes and make sure that their votes count.

    From what you have said, you established the fact the government in power is capable of using security agencies to rig election. What is the way out?

    First and foremost, the citizens should resist such harassment; and they should also remember that those who have being subjecting them to intimidation by forces of Federal Government, particularly the Police, and the SSS hardly know them. So, if you get yourself sabotaged, if you get yourself assaulted by a neighbour who you know is a member of the PDP; of course, you will take necessary steps to protect yourself and unveil whatever happens. This is so because we are dealing with a bunch of characters in government who don’t know the language of civility. So, you must protect yourself because you cannot be protected by the judiciary, you cannot be protected by the police, the SSS themselves are bunch of thugs working for the presidency. So, take whatever necessary steps to protect yourself and in doing this, history will be on the side of those who would want to resist the PDP, the police and the DSS.

    The APC has alleged that people are moving en masse to their country homes because of fear of violence that may erupt during the election. What is your take on this?

    I think it is very unfortunate but it is prudent for people who have decided to relocate to their various places of comfort, where they feel save during the election, after all, life is very important because if you are dead, there is nothing you can do. As far as I am concerned, it is unfortunate that politics in our country has been reduced to a level where people don’t feel comfortable to play politics outside their home town! Now, the solution is not to mourn about it, complain about it, the solution is to force … (expletives) …in government out of power and do the necessary things to ensure that all Nigerians are comfortable to play politics anywhere in the country in their own comfort. Nigerians must be allowed to exercise their franchise and vote for whoever they want no matter where they are within the country-that is very important. If the government cannot protect anybody, then I don’t know what the hell they are talking about democracy.  The primary responsibility of every government is to maintain law and order-to protect the integrity of every person, his family and belongings- if the government cannot do that, then I don’t see any need we have for such government. So, I think we should realize that it is not the fault of those who want to go home, it is the fault of the government that has failed reasonably to protect lives and property of Nigerians. Number two, if the government cannot allow meaningful discussions with the opposition parties-then this is not the kind of government that we can hope on. Thirdly, we have a bunch of incompetent people who are card-carrying members of a political party, who are running INEC and don’t know anything.

    They messed up the elections of 2011 and do you know they were busy telling foreign media that it was the best election we ever had in Nigeria. Now, in less than two months to the elections, they are telling us that the electoral law has to be amended; I don’t know where on earth, you amend an electoral law two weeks to the election. Electoral laws are passed very early enough and they are tried and tested; and they will do some kind of trouble-shooting within them and see how far it can go; but this INEC chairman has been playing games.

    They only talk when they assume the interest of their pay masters at Aso Rock is at risk. I also noticed that INEC has nothing but contempt to public opinion. Anytime, they have programme and the public is against it, they resist, and then, they will come back and tell you this is the law and this is our own interpretation, when they found they cannot cope, they simply abandon the thing and look for something else. That was exactly what happened with the voters register and the increase which is logical-that when the population increases, you have to increase the number of polling booths but they so badly mishandled the issue and the thing turned out to be a farce. If Prof Atahiru Jega has any conscience, he should have resigned and I think it will be better for this country if he resigns now.

    From what you have said, you agree with the APC that PDP has perfected plans to rig the election?

    Yes. That is my opinion and it is a fact. The APC comment is correct and absolutely timely. This is why I insist that people should be organized, defend their votes, people should defend their votes, people should be vigilant. People should stand up for their rights and make sure their votes count-this is the only way out.

     

  • 2015 governorship: Big battle in Kwara, Nasarawa, Benue, Rivers and Delta

    2015 governorship: Big battle in Kwara, Nasarawa, Benue, Rivers and Delta

    With the 2015 governorship election just about 40 days away, Remi Adelowo in this report takes a look at the chances of the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and factors that would likely determine the outcome of the polls in Kwara, Nasarawa, Benue, Delta and Rivers states

    KWARA 2015: Ahmed looks sure bet for second term Kwara State governor, Abdulfatah Ahmed, has one major hurdle to cross in his quest for a second term in office.

    Stating that the 2015 governorship election in Kwara State would be a straight contest between Ahmed, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the PDP candidate, Senator Simeon Ajibola, is like reiterating the obvious.

    Ajibola’s emergence as the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was as shocking as it was unexpected.

    In the run-up to the PDP governorship primaries, the third term senator was not in the reckoning as a major contender for the ticket. Though an experienced political gladiator in the state who cut his tutelage under the revered strongman of Kwara politics, late Dr. Olusola Saraki, only very few people believed he could defeat other formidable aspirants boasting alleged strong backing from high quarters.

    This category of aspirants including Prof. Abdulrahman Oba, the Chairman of Federal Character Commission (FCC), former Presidential Adviser, Senator Suleiman Ajadi, wealthy businessman, Jani Ibrahim, Senator Gbemisola Saraki and Mr. Dele Belgore, believed to be the favoured aspirant of Hajia Bola Shagaya, an influential player in the corridors of power.

    Days before the primaries held, Belgore was seen as the man to beat, even as many of the aspirants reportedly faulting the process put in place to conduct the election, which they alleged, was skewed to arrive at a pre-determined outcome.

    But after much hue and cry, the primaries finally held, with Ajibola beating all comers for the ticket.

     

    Factors that would shape 2015 contest

    With the election just about 40 days away, there are indications that factors, including incumbency, religion, party platform, popularity and achievements of the two major contestants would largely determine who emerges victorious on February 21.

     

    How the three senatorial zones may vote

    In Kwara South where Ahmed and Ajibola both hail from, it is not unlikely that there could be a split of votes between the two candidates in the area.

    Another likely scenario is a slim victory for the PDP candidate due to religious factor as many people in the area are predominantly Christians.

    Another school of thought is, however, of the belief that the incumbent governor will win the zone with a large margin due to the alleged poor performance of Ajibola, whose aspiration for a third term in the Senate was allegedly opposed by many political stakeholders in the zone until the intervention of the governor and the leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state, Senator Bukola Saraki.

    In Kwara Central and Kwara North, both dominated by Muslims, Ahmed appears the favourite to win the two zones.

    The Central zone, which constitutes about 52 percent of the state’s voting strength, would very likely pitch its tent with the APC candidate in solidarity with Saraki, (an Ilorin indigene), who has effectively taken over his late father’s political empire.

    Added to this is the influence of the traditional institution in the zone, which from historical references, had always queued behind the Saraki political dynasty in the battle for the soul of the politics of the state.

    Sources also posit that the 2015 election scenario in Kwara North would follow the voting pattern in the Central zone.

    Would this election prognosis remain unchanged by the time the election gets under way on February 21? Time would tell.

     

    Almakura upbeat on second term

    Nasarawa State Governor, Tanko Almakura , has been described in many quarters as a cat with many lives.

    Elected in 2011 under the platform of the relatively new (now defunct) Congress for Progressives Change (CPC), Almakura defeated the then governor, Alhaji Akwe Doma, who was contesting for a second term on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

    However, the euphoria of his shocking victory was tempered by the overwhelming victory of PDP candidates in the House of Assembly election, thus signaling tough times for Almakura’s tenure.

    Predictably, Almakura’s relationship with the PDP-dominated House has been frosty at best. The climax of it all was the notice of impeachment served on the governor on July 14 last year, an action that almost turned the state into a theatre of political warfare.

    While the impeachment process lasted, many people hastily concluded that the governor was virtually down and out. This conclusion was not misplaced after all, as powerful forces within and outside the state was hell bent on giving the governor a bloodied nose.

    The governor, however, proved his political astuteness following a clean bill of health verdict by the impeachment panel set up to investigate sundry allegations leveled against him by PDP lawmakers.

     

    Battle shifts to 2015

    With the governorship primaries of the PDP and APC done with, the supremacy battle between the two major political parties in the state has shifted to February this year when the 2015 elections would take place.

     

    Almakura versus Agabi

    In the countdown to the PDP governorship primaries in Nasarawa State, Alhaji Yusuf Agabi was, undoubtedly, a dark horse in a race parading formidable aspirants including former Minister of Information, Labaran Maku, Senator Solomon Ewuga and a former governor of the state, Akwe Doma.

    The declaration of Agabi as the winner of the contest defied earlier projections and forecasts. Dissatisfied, Maku has called for the cancellation of the result, but his protest has gone unheeded so far.

    Agabi is now set to face Almakura who, according to sources, is confident of securing a fresh mandate later next month.

    Factors that would make the election very interesting include but not limited to ethnic considerations, choice of running mates by the two candidates and the crisis within the PDP fold over the outcome of the party primaries.

    The battle for votes by the governor and his major opponent, sources say, would be fierce among the major ethnic Eggon ethnic group and the minority Hausa/Fulani community where Almakura and Agabi hail from.

    Of the two candidates, Almakura seems to have more work to do to gain the confidence of the Eggons who are still peeved over his alleged partisanship of the crisis in the state which involved the dreaded Ombatse cult group in Alakyo resulting in the death of about 100 security operatives.

    But the governor, sources further disclosed, has in the last few months, made reapproachment with some Eggon stakeholders to support his second term ambition. What may also work in the governor’s favour is the reported lack of unity among the Eggons who are yet to produce the governor since the creation of the state.

    The governor’s choice of Silas Agara, his Commissioner for Youth and Sports Development and a grassroots politician of Eggon extraction as his running mate, coupled with alleged secret deal reached between the incumbent governor and Maku who lost the PDP ticket to Agabi, could prove a major determinant of the governorship election.

     

    Benue 2015: Too close to call

    The desire of Benue State governor, Gabriel Suswam, to hand over to another PDP governor in May this year seems to be hanging in the balance.

    A few weeks ago, the Benue PDP elected Prince Terhemen Tarzoor as its 2015 governorship candidate. The former Speaker of the state House of Assembly polled 517 votes to beat seven other aspirants.

    Alleging foul play in the process that produced Tarzoor, one of the aspirants, Samuel Ortom, defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and secured the ticket to stand as the party’s governorship flag bearer in next month’s election.

     

    Tarzoor’s support base

    Beside the support of the governor who would use his incumbency powers in favour of his party’s candidate, Tarzoor, a Tiv, is also banking on the support of the Senate President, David Mark, an indigene of the state and the influential paramount ruler of the Tiv, Dr. Alfred Akawe Torkula, to defeat Ortom, a former ally of the governor and immediate former Minister of State for Trade and Investment.

     

    Ortom’s strengths

    A household mane in Benue politics, Ortom also has many other factors going for him.

    A former local government chairman in the state, former Secretary and Deputy Chairman of Benue PDP and former National Auditor of the party, Ortom also served as Director, Administration and Logistics, Goodluck-Sambo Campaign Organisation and Director of Organisation, Suswam/Lawani Campaign Organisation, which efforts brought the present government into office in Benue State.

    Ortom’s deep knowledge of the inner workings in the PDP, analysts posit, would come in handy at this point in time.

    The relative strength of the APC in the state, which boasts a serving senator, George Akume and some members in the state and National Assembly, and which was further boosted with the defection of Senator Barnabas Gemade, a former PDP National Chairman, who is contesting for a second term in the Senate against Governor Suswam, are clear indications that the outcome of the Benue governorship election would be too close to call.

     

    Rivers: More than just an election

    If the high wired intrigues and tension that trailed the emergence of Barrister Nyesome Wike and Dr. Dakuku Peterside as the governorship candidates of the PDP and APC respectively are anything to go by, the February governorship election in the state would be more than just an election.

    Indeed, it would be a battle of egos, money, political future of the dramatis personae and much more.

    For Governor Rotimi Amaechi, who is rounding up his second term in office, this is one election that would define his place in the political history of the South South state.

    And for his opponents, this is one ‘battle’ that nothing would be spared to reclaim the state from a man who, in the last two years, has proved a real handful.

     

    Wike and the battle within

    Riding high on the back of his endorsement by the First Lady, Patience Jonathan, the PDP candidate is telling anyone who cares to listen that he is a man to watch out for.

    But the rebellion within his party by disgruntled governorship aspirants who are alleging that the primaries was manipulated in Wike’s favour has raised fears among PDP members of likely protest votes for the APC candidate, while several attempts by party leadership to reconcile Wike with the aggrieved aspirants has not yielded significant results

    Even more worrisome for PDP leaders is the opposition to Wike’s candidacy by influential opinion leaders in the state such as former minister, Chief Alabo Graham Douglas, former militant leader, Asari Dokubo, Ijaw activist, Annkio Briggs to mention just a few.

    Their grouse is not unconnected to the failure of the PDP to respect the unwritten zoning policy of the governorship seat agreed upon in 1998 between the Upland and the Riverine areas of the state.

    Wike hails from Ikwerre in the upland, the same ethnic nationality like the incumbent governor, whose predecessor, Dr. Peter Odili, who governed from 1999 to 2007 is also from the upland.

     

    Would agitation for power shift favour Peterside?

    At a relatively young age of 45, Dakuku Peterside, has paid his dues in the politic of Rivers State.

    From the Opobo kingdom, the youthful politician was elected to represent Andoni/Opobo-Nkoro area in the House of Representatives in 2011.

    But prior to being elected into the National Assembly, he served twice as Commissioner for Works (2007-2011) and concurrently served on the Board of Greater Port Harcourt Development Authority (GPHCDA).

     

    Before his appointment as commissioner, he served as Executive Director, Development and Leadership Institute (DLI) between the year 2005 and 2007, Senior Special Assistant to Governor of Rivers State on Works (2003-2005), Chairman Opobo-Nkoro local government area from 2002 to 2003.

    He also served as Special Assistant to ex-Governor Odili on Youth and Student Affairs and concurrently as a member of Board, Centre for Black and African Arts and Civilisation (CBAAC), a Federal Government arts and research establishment.

    Peterside’s emergence, sources say, was a deft move by his political mentor, Governor Amaechi to rally the support of the Riverine people behind the APC in the fierce battle for the soul of the state.

     

    Ikwerre, Ogoni are battlegrounds

    With the Riverine people expected to queue behind Peterside in the election, political observers are of the opinion that the support by the Ikwerre and Ogoni nationalities for or against the two major candidates would go a long way to determine who wins the election.

    A few posers would suffice here: first can Governor Amaechi convince his kinsmen to reject another Ikwerre (Wike) in favour of Peterside? Would aggrieved PDP governorship aspirants and key stakeholders like Graham Douglas, Dokubo, Briggs and others work against Wike, who is the anointed candidate of the Presidency?

    The countdown has indeed begun.

     

    Delta: Okowa still the odds on favourite

    The age-long dream of Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa to govern Delta State is just one step away from being realised.

    The surprise victory of the senator in the PDP governorship primaries a few weeks ago in spite of the formidable odds he had to contend with has raised optimism among his supporters that 2015 might just be his lucky year to win the exalted governorship seat.

     

    Factors for and against Okowa

    Bloc votes from the Delta North, comprising of about eight local governments, which has never produced the state governor, support of influential stakeholders including Ijaw leader, Chief E.K Clark and ex-militant leader, Government Ekpumopolo popularly known as Tompolo, in addition to the formidable grassroots presence of the PDP across the state, have been identified as major factors that would work in Okowa’s favour at the polls.

    On the other hand, the reported dissatisfaction of the Urhobos, the majority ethnic group in the state which has threatened to vote against the PDP, the supremacy war between the Ijaws and Itsekiris, who are uncomfortable over the alleged overbearing influence of Ekpumopolo in the Delta PDP, it was gathered, may turn out to be Okowa’s undoing at next month’s elections.

    The ex-militant leader reportedly played a pivotal role in Okowa’s victory and was also alleged to have nominated his cousin, Kingsley Otuaro, a commissioner in the Delta State Oil Producing Areas Development Commission (DESOPADEC) as Okowa’s running mate.

    Grumblings over his alleged influence, recent reports indicate, prompted the former militant leader to hold peace talks with Itsekiri and Urhobo leaders sometime last week. But it remains unclear if the ex-militant leader succeeded in extracting commitments from his hosts.

     

    Can Emerhor pull any surprise?

    Since he emerged as the APC governorship candidate, Olorogun Otega Emerhor appears not in any way intimidated by the political pedigree of his PDP counterpart and the relative strength of the PDP in the state.

    The Nation gathered that the wealthy businessman, an Urhobo, is said to be banking on the support of his kinsmen to win the coveted seat, but the likely spilt of Urhobo votes between him, the Labour Party (LP) candidate, Great Ogboru and Okowa, coupled with the weak structures of APC could mar his chances in the February 21 governorship election.

     

  • After the deluge: beyond corruption and regional realignment of forces in a post-PDP Nigeria

    After the deluge: beyond corruption and regional realignment of forces in a post-PDP Nigeria

    It is not hyperbolic to speak of a post-PDP Nigeria in mythic terms. To speak of our country as a land readying itself for cleansing and restitution after a great deluge that lasted for a long time and laid nearly everything to waste is to deploy the powers of language and symbolic logic to try to capture what Nigeria has gone through in the last sixteen years. This order of discourse moves us beyond the dry, conceptualist universe of political economy in which a country like Nigeria under the rule of the PDP is described as a failing state.

    With the discourse of symbolic and mythic logic, we are much closer to the human and psychic realities of the nation and the masses of its peoples in a period of great travail. For there are parts of the country in which, quite literally, it is as if one is in a physical terrain that looks very much like a land washed over by a great flood, a massive tsunami. Parts of the Niger Delta and the North come to mind here: those parts of the Niger Delta in which farmlands, fishing waters and the entire physical environment have been blighted by oil spills that are never cleaned up; and those parts of the North that have been seized by the Boko Haram jihadist insurgency. But these are only the worst expressions of realities that confront us everywhere in the country in which great suffering and insecurity have become the daily experience of millions of our peoples and the majority of the young that see only bleak futures ahead of them. At any rate, beyond the relatively more benign biblical parable of seven fat years coming after seven lean years, I see a post-PDP Nigeria as a land gearing up for a massive cleanup after a political tsunami, a moral and spiritual valley of death. The only caveat to add here is the necessity of anchoring the symbolic discourse of floods and tsunamis in concrete observations concerning the probable course of capitalist democracy in a post-PDP Nigeria.

    It is of course possible, though highly improbable, that the PDP will continue to rule after the general elections of 2015. In that case, I hasten to observe that my reflections in this piece will not have proved futile and delusory; rather, they would have turned out to be prescient in the sense that, by a reverse logic, the deluge will continue, the moral and psychic morass will not come to an end. This is because PDP cannot, and will never reform from within; it will never clean up the Augean stables of filth and rot it has created. If it rigs its way into perpetuation of its misrule, it will be emboldened to raise impunity to new levels and we and the whole world will be astonished by new forms of monumental corruption, waste and mismanagement of our natural and human resources. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala once said that she would be quite satisfied if she was able to reduce the scale of looting and squandermania in PDP’s Nigeria by 4%; in a post-2015 general elections era that maintains the PDP in power at the centre, that 4% will dip into the minus percentile range, that is if it has not already done so. The worst will never reach its bottom in PDP’s misrule for what we confront in it is an abyss, a bottomless cesspit. Dear readers, dear compatriots, do not withhold yourselves from dreaming about and working for a post-PDP, post-deluge Nigeria especially as it so happens that there are solid grounds on which to base projections of the PDP’s complete rout in next month’s elections, these being the roles that corruption and a new realignment of forces among our political elites, our ruling class will play in the presidential elections. Let me explain.

    Barring the stealing of victory by the PDP through massive rigging and a will to use very costly repressive violence to contain mass resistance to rigging, the 2015 general elections will be fought primarily around the twin axes of corruption and the electoral alliance of mainstream politicians of the “core” North” and the Southwest. Corruption of course exists in all the ruling class political parties and is to be found at varying levels in virtually all the state and local governments of the country. As almost every commentator on corruption in Nigeria has stated, the scale of corruption in Nigeria is nothing short of systemic: it is the noxious glue that holds everything together among godfathers and clients among our political elites; and it is the nefarious bond that binds the rulers to the ruled with regard to the unofficial and manipulative redistribution of resources between the few thousands of the haves and the millions of the have-nots. Given these factors, the question arises as to how and why corruption has come to loom much larger in the coming February 2015 general elections than it had ever done in all previous elections since the return to formal, civilian democracy in 1999.

    The answer to this question is simple and unambiguous: under the Jonathan presidency, more specifically under the Jonathan administration’s endgame to the PDP’s era of arrant misrule, corruption has far exceeded the systemic to become extra- or para- systemic; it no longer has rhyme or reason, method in madness, or logic in illogic. Trillions of naira and tens of billions of dollars vanish or are unaccounted for, even as government workers and contractors are unpaid; state governors go cap in hand to Abuja and return with near empty bowls, month after month. The looting frenzy has reached dizzying heights of impunity and this is why corruption is the first and perhaps main issue of the coming elections. Additionally, this is why short of massive and violent rigging, Jonathan and the PDP will lose as they more than deserve to do. Most Nigerians are focused on corruption as the main issue of the elections, especially given the myths, legends and facts concerning Buhari’s alleged distaste for corruption The U.S. and the European Union will in particular be keenly watching the outcome of the elections and the main reason for this is also the scale, the extra- and para-systemic nature of corruption in the Jonathan presidency and its offshoots around the country.

    And of course the other big issue in the election is what is being described as the return of power or, more specifically the presidency, to the North, this in an alliance that brings large segments of mainstream political forces of the “core” North with those of the Southwest. This is an infinitely more complex issue than the unifying and idealizing “ABJ” (Anyone But Jonathan) battle against corruption.  In the postindependence political history of the country, this is not the first time that this sort of alliance has happened, the NPC-NNDP alliance of the 1960s being the first time that a joining of forces between the North and the Southwest came to power in the center in our country. But this time around, the alliance will not be a simple repetition of history, a mere regrouping of similar ideological and programmatic tendencies. In the earlier case, the two parties did not completely merge, for the simple reason that neither the NPC nor the NNDP wanted to lose its regional identity in a single party in which regionalism was or could be completely subsumed into a national party whose regional currents took second place to a nation-wide plurality. Now the allied forces have merged into a single party of diverse and even contradictory ideological and policy orientations and as a consequence, we are about to enter into an almost totally unprecedented space of ruling class politics in our country.

    The parameters for apprehending this new space are already being set around very familiar oversimplifying ideas and perspectives. Perhaps by far the most common among these is the view that the new President will be Northern and Muslim while the Vice President will be Southern and Christian. This will certainly be the dominant view in the Western press and even within the ruling circles in Europe and the United States. And to be very candid about this, the thoughts, the emotions and the aspirations of a very large segment of the Nigerian electorate are also driven by this particular perspective. But like the question of corruption, this subject of a balancing act between a Moslem North and a Christian South begs the question of how a post-PDP Nigerian ruling class will be different in policy, programmes and issues from the era of the PDP and the long military interregnums before it. This is quite apart from the fact that the North is neither wholly Moslem nor the South wholly Christian.

    Perhaps the most important consideration of all is the fact that the APC being unlike any other merger of disparate ideological forces we have ever seen in the political history of this country, we are almost certainly on the cusp of a new order of political discourse in a post-PDP Nigeria. In this, our beginning observation is that the present coalition within the party is centre-right, with the proviso that a center-left formation is slumbering underneath the present dominant formation. There are some among those reading this piece who will think that these reflections are premature or perhaps even meaningless in the context of present-day ruling class politics in our country. These caveats, these objections will be our starting point in next week’s concluding essay in the series as we focus on what sort of capitalism a post-PDP ruling class party will institute as a replacement for the present vacuum that combines a looting frenzy with a thoughtless, fundamentalist and unregulated capitalism driven by a latter-day primitive accumulation of the basest and most unregenerate kind that the world has ever known.

     

    Biodun Jeyifo

    bjeyifo@fas.harvard.edu