The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has endorsed President Goodluck Jonathan for next year’s election. The nation now awaits the emergence of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential flag bearer. Five aspirants are in the race. Who gets the ticket? Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the search for a credible and nationally acceptable opposition candidate and issues that will shape the shadow poll.
The die is cast between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). Both parties are preparing for an epic battle. Many believe that next year’s presidential election will determine the future of the fledgling country. As the election draws near, the parties must confront some challenges. Although the two parties are the main players, there are other contending interests and issues that will shape the contest.
Issues
President Goodluck Jonathan, who has been endorsed by the ruling party, has accepted to run. The Commander-In-Chief in leaning on the power of incumbency. But, the core North, which is insisting on the unwritten zoning or rotational principle, is mobilising against his candidature. Two groups-the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) and the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), led by Prof. Ango Abdullahi, are mobilising against his candidature. Although a nominal party chieftain, Dr, Abduljahi Balewa, son of the late Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, has unfolded his presidential ambition, there is no evidence that he is being backed by the Northern establishment.
The strategists in the North are not indifferent to the power of incumbency. A section of the conservative bloc has proposed a sort of negotiation with the Presidency over 2015. A source said that some powerful politicians loyal to the President are mounting pressures on him to dump his deputy, Vice President Namadi Sambo. “If they continue with this pressure, the President may yield, just as he agreed to dump the former PDP National Chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur,” added the source.
The second ambition of the President has not only polarised the North, but also the entire country. In recent times, stakeholders are playing ethnic cards, with the Southsouth reminding the North that oil, the source of the national wealth, is domiciled in the region. But, the President has hurdles to cross in the Southsouth. In Rivers State, the miracle of ‘two million votes’ for the PDP cannot be repeated next year. Governor Rotimi Amaechi’s propaganda against the President and the PDP is effective. A PDP governorship aspirant in the state said: “It may not be easy for the two parties in Rivers. The PDP was the dominant party. But, Amaechi is a factor. Therefore, Rivers will be another battle ground between President Jonathan and the APC.”
Next year’s presidential election will also be a battle of ego. Some critics have accused Dr. Jonathan of desperation. Since former military Head of State Gen. Muhammadu Buhari declared his presidential ambition, the reality has dawned on the President that he has a major challenger. A source said that the crowd of supporters at the Eagle Square was intimidating to the PDP. The fear is that, if the APC can put its house in order and there is no post-primary crisis, the party will give the PDP a tough battle.
Unlike 2011 poll, the support base of the President has ebbed away. There is no proof that the masses of the Southwest are rooting for him. In fact, the opposition against his second term ambition is stronger in the Northwest and the Northeast. In the Southsouth, some people loyal to former Governor James Ibori indifferent to his re-election bid. In Rivers, some people are not happy that some oil wells were allegedly ceded to Bayelsa State. Also, cross Rivers indigenes are kicking against the alleged hijack of oil wells by Akwa Ibom State, based on presidential support. In Bayelsa State, which has the least voting strength in the Southsouth, there is division in the PDP over moves to raise a formidable candidate against Governor Seriake Dickson at the primaries.
However, it is to the advantage of the President that the “political principals and principalities” of Nigeria, who are against his second term, have not indicated their interest in any aspirant in the APC. This group power barons wield an enormous influence over the polity. Despite their interest in power swift, they are at crossroads. Reflecting on the influence of these power brokers, a politician said: “These people do not want President Jonathan, but they are also afraid of aspirants in other parties. They want an aspirant that can protect their interest. They want an aspirant with a military background. They can’t instigate coup, but they want an aspirant who will not trouble them. That is why one of them is wiping the sentiment that a Muslim-Muslim ticket is not good for Nigeria because he is afraid that the union of the former Head of State and the former governor of Lagos will shake the PDP and result into power shift, “ he added.
Challenges
According to the PDP, Nigeria requires continuity. Its National Chairman, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, said another four years for President Jonathan will give him an opportunity for the consolidation of his Transformation Agenda. However, the APC presidential aspirant, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, has described Dr. Jonathan as a clueless President, saying that he has failed the country. He said another four years will lead to the extension of the lean years. Also, Buhari observed that the challenges are overwhelming, adding that the poor economy, failed budgets, insecurity, energy crisis, bad roads, soaring unemployment and corruption may kill Nigeria.
Fifteen years after the restoration of the civil rule, the country is at a standstill and the future appears bleak. Although he Federal Government’s transformation agenda is beautiful on paper, its faulty implementation has led to disaster. The greatest challenges are the poor economy and the insecurity. Despite the rebasing of the economy, its impact is not felt. Thus, the APC National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, said that the PDP-Federal Government lied. He emphasised that the economy has not improved, stressing that poverty has been on the increase.
But, more distressing is the insurgency in the North and kidnapping and armed robbery in the South. For almost 200 days, the abducted Chibok girls have not been liberated by security agents, despite the huge investment in security. Frowning at the menace of Boko Haram sect, Lagos APC spokesman Joe Igbokwe said the inability of the administration to end the insurgency has underscored its lack of will and capacity to restore order into a state of pandemonium.
Waiting for APC
Eyes are on the main opposition party. The party parade heavy weight and credible politicians across the six geo-political zones who can lead the country. However, there are indications that the APC has zoned the slot to the North. This is because on chieftains from the North have unfolded their presidential ambition on the platform of the party.
APC presidential aspirants include Buhari, Abubakar, Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwakwanso and Leadership Newspaper publisher Sam Nda-Isaiah. Actually, the Turaki Adamawa defected from the PDP to the APC to revive his presidential ambition. In the last few months, he has been on the tour of the country for consultation with his stakeholders. But, former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s remarks about his suitability for the exalted position has affected public perception about his ambition. The former leader was full of bile when he explained whey he could not hand over to his former deputy at a lecture in Ibadan last year.
House of Representatives Speaker Aminu Tambuwal may also be aspirant. But, he is in a dilemma. He has not defected from the PDP, but he was sighted at the Sokoto State APC stakeholders’ meeting last week. A woman legislator from Lagos State said the Speaker may be However, the last key defector. However, if he defects, the PDP may push for his impeachment. Many APC chieftains are trying to draft him into the presidential race because he has a national spread. But, sources close to Tambuwal disclosed that he is interested in the governorship race in Sokoto.
Ethnicity and religion
The task of selecting a presidential candidate without blemish is challenging. In the APC, there are two strands of opinion that may shape the presidential nomination. A section of the party is pushing for generational shift, claiming that presidential activities nowadays are very rigorous. They believe that young, dynamic, brilliant, credible and fertile minds are better equipped for the rigour. But, another section is of the view that the criteria should exclude age, adding that merit, antecedents, credibility and public record of an aspirant should be considered.
APC chieftain in Ondo State, Hon. Bola Ilori, said that age is not an issue. He said: “Ajasin became the governor of Ondo State in 1979 at 70. He performed more than governors who were in their forties and fifties. It is about vision and character.”
In 2015, three factors are also important. For political expediency, the parties will be responding to pressures and constraints imposed by religion, ethnicity and contradiction within the parties. It is gradually becoming a norm that, if a Muslim from the North is the presidential candidate of any major party, his running mate will be a Christian from the South and vice versa. This, analysts contend, has become a stumbling block to merit. Instructively, pairing two people from the religious divides together for presidential elections is not a guarantor of good governance. The potency of religious balance is also debatable. In 1993, the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) Muslim/Muslim ticket of the late Alhaji Moshood Abiola and Alhaji Baba Gana Kingibe defeated the National Republican Convention (NRC) Muslim/ Christian ticket of Alhaji Othma Tofa and Sylvester Ugoh.
Last week, Buhari said that politics should not be shaped by religion, adding that he was prepared for a Muslim-Muslim ticket. But, Obasanjo, who is opposed to his presidential ambition, said in a statement that religion is an important issue, urging the members of the political class to be sensitive.
Internal democracy
There are two dominant views on how the presidential candidate of the APC should emerge. A section has called for consensus candidacy to prevent the tension and confusion triggered by primaries. It is believed that, if this route is taken, Buhari will be the beneficiary. Those opposed to consensus are rooting for democratic primaries. To them, this is the key to internal democracy, But, it appears that critics and party leaders have divergent views about what constitutes internal democracy. In the PDP, the President is likely to intimidate other aspirants at the primaries, if they insist on struggling for the ticket with him. In the APC, it is not yet clear how this vexed issue will be handled. But, a party source said that, judging by the antecedents of its founding fathers, the APC leaders will be ready to give concessions and build consensus within the organisation.
APC aspirants
Buhari
He is now an experienced politician. He is a statesman. He is an incorruptible figure in a society that has produced many soldiers of fortune. Buhari fought gallantly on the federal side during the civil war. Shortly, after the war, he became the governor of the defunct Northeastern State. When the late Gen. Muritala Muhammed became the Head of State, Buhari was appointed as the Federal Commissioner for Petroleum Resources and Chairman of the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). In the Second Republic, he was the General officer Commanding (GOC), Third Armoured Division, Jos. On December 31, 1983, Buhari became the Head of State.
The former Head of State had a mission. He wanted to get rid of corruption. He also wanted to restore public discipline. Thus, he stepped on toes. Buhari presided over an administration that intended to return Nigeria to its glorious past. He paid the national debt and ensured that the nation did not incur a new debt. Many corrupt politicians were tried for graft. He also restored national security, which had been threatened by the rising wave of armed robbery. In running the country, he was assisted by a diligent deputy, the late Gen. Tunde idiagbon. Although the regime was accused of high handedness, it was undeterred in its focus and mission to enforce discipline and public morality. However, he was toppled in August 1985. Buhari was in detention for almost two years. In retirement, he led a quite life. When he became the Chairman of the Petroleum Tax Fund (PTF), he fought the infrastructure battle nationwide without enriching himself.
The Daura-born soldier-turned politician is a veteran presidential candidate. In 2003, Buhari joined the fray. Obasanjo government had started to drift. He contested for the Presidency in that year on the platform of the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP). He lost his deposit. In 2007, he also contested against Yar’Adua, but without success. But, the former President later confessed that the poll was severely flawed. In 2011, Buhari also tried his luck on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). He lost to President Jonathan. However, owing to his influence, voters voted out the PDP in Kano and Nasarawa states. Buhari has a mass appeal. Many look up to the General for leadership in the North.
Reality had dawned on Buhari that, unless the opposition figures work together to change the government, the ruling party will continue to mismanage the affairs of the country. Therefore, his party, the CPC, the ACN, the ANPP and a section of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) merged together in the APC. It was a great sacrifice made in the national interest.
Buhari has an ambition to return to power to return the country to the path of honour. But, for him, it is not a do or die affair. His primary goal, according to his associates, is the repositioning of the country. To him, the PDP has failed to make impact 14 years after. “It is not about me, it is about the nation. We need change in 2015. APC will rule this country and bring that change”, he said.
Prominent Northern elite are opposed to his ambition. To them, Buhari is his own man. He may not be able to condone indiscipline. But, the masses are rooting for him. When he declared for the President, the crowd that attended his declaration ceremony sent the Presidency and the PDP jittery. It was not a rented crowd. In 2011, when he ran on the platform of the CPC, the General polled over 12 million votes.
Kwakwanso
Kwankwano made history in the Third Republic when he emerged as the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives. A grassroots operator, he is a household name in Kano State. His group, the Kwankwasia movement, is waxing strong. In 1999, he became the governor of the state. But, he was defeated by his rival, Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau of the defunct ANPP, who ruled for eight years. Between 2003 and 2007, Kwankwaso served as the Minister of Defence. He bounced back in 2011, when he was re-elected as the governor. It is believed that the governor has performed and there were indications that he was being encouraged to declare a presidential interest before he called it quits with the PDP.
Kwankwaso was among the five PDP governors, who defected to the APC. The fact that many big wigs, including state and federal legislators, followed him to the new party showed that he has a large following. He is today a national leader of the party.
Among those rooting for him is Obasanjo. As the former Minister of Defence, he has the knowledge of the military. But, despite his popularity in Kano, it may be hard to sell his candidature to other zones.
Abubakar
Abubakar is another veteran presidential aspirant. He had contested for the seat in 2007 and 2011, but lost his deposit. Had he thrown his hat into the ring in 2003, may be, the story would have been different. But, he deferred to his boss, Obasanjo, hoping to succeed him in 2007. The marriage had turned sour before the poll.
In 2003, the politician from Adamawa emerged as the arrowhead of the progressives. He was the presidential flag bearer of the ACN. But, shortly after the election, he retraced his steps to the PDP. The move infuriated the ACN family. Following his return to the PDP, he visited Obasanjo in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, in a fence-mending move. But, the imaginary reconciliation did not lead to renewal of political contact between the former President and his deputy. Last year, the former President castigated him at a public lecture in Ibadan, Oyo State capital. Obasanjo explained why he refused to hand over to him. In the past, Abubakar fought some political battles, using the arsenal of the law, and he triumphed. In the PDP, Abubakar has been deliberately sidelined. He was among the aggrieved PDP chieftains who stormed out of the party’s rancorous convention in Abuja to form the ‘New PDP. Many believe that Abubakar has a towering political stature. A detribalised Nigerian, he has many friends across the country. But, majority of those rooting for him in 2007 are now mobilising for Buhari.
Nda-Isaiah
Nda-Isaiah is the publisher of the Leadership Newspaper. He is not a threat to any aspirant.
Running mate
The choice of a running mate is also important. But, the vice presidential candidate will be selected after the flag bearer has emerged. According to party sources, the running mate may come from either the Southwest or the Southsouth.
