The die is cast between theAll Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the Southwest. Last month, the PDP recaptured Ekiti State at the governorship election. Next month, both parties will be competing for the Government House, Osun State. 12222Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI and Assistant Editor LEKE SALAUDEEN write on the battle for the soul of the region.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) is not leaving any stone unturned as it prepares for the next month’s governorship election in Osun State. Against the background of the loss of the governorship election in Ekiti State, the party has every reason to believe the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is intent on replicating the strategy it employed in Ekiti State to win the August 9 election in Osun State and other sstates in the region. Though an independent survey by a coalition of civil society organisations has it predicted that Governor Rauf Aregbesola will win the poll by more than 80 per cent of the votes, the APC has cried out over the delay in releasing permanent voters’ cards. The party believes that the Federal Government has started implementing its strategy to skew the election in Osun in favour of the PDP, as it did in Ekiti.
PDP and stomach
infrastructure
Beyond Ekiti and Osun, the PDP appears bent on ensuring that states which were previously controlled by them before the APC took over in the Southwest are won back in subsequent elections. The strategy, according to reports, include the harmonizing factions in Ogun, Osun and Oyo States, which were PDP states and ensuring that only credible and accepted candidates are fielded for elections.
“We used Ekiti to test run our new strategy. We fielded former governor Ayodele Fayose, a man loved by his people from the top to bottom and it paid off. That is the way we will henceforth go. We will capitalize on Ekiti victory and fix our party in other opposition states where we have potentials to win,” a source who would not want to be named told The Nation.
Indeed, the party has begun moves to resolve the crisis in its Osun chapter, with a view to winning the election in the state. As part of the strategy, President Goodluck Jonathan last week held a closed-door meeting with the former Osun State governor, Olagunsoye Oyinlola, at the Presidential Villa, Abuja. Although the agenda of the meeting was not disclosed, it was learnt that it is part of efforts by the ruling PDP to win the election.
The PDP’s candidate, Iyiola Omisore, is the major challenger. The former governor, who was controversially removed as the National Secretary of the PDP, is challenging his removal in court. He is believed to wield a major influence in Osun.
Oyinlola was a member of the New PDP, which was formed when some PDP governors fell out with the former party chairman, Bamanga Tukur. When the New PDP eventually merged with the APC, Oyinlola decided to remain in the PDP. A known loyalist of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Oyinlola is being courted by Aregbesola. While addressing journalists after the meeting, the Okuku-born politician would not disclose details of his discussion with President Jonathan. He said he was determined to reclaim his position as the National Secretary of the PDP. He said anyone occupying the office is a pretender.
The APC believes the ruling party is already fanning ambers of disunity in Osun, by using its federal might. A source in Osogbo told The Nation in confidence that the Presidency has advanced huge money to the war chest of Iyiola Omisore Campaign Organisation to prosecute the election. According to the source, the ruling party has also directed 18 PDP governors to contribute money each to the war chest. The source said the money is being used to facilitate the party’s victory.
Indeed, the opposition party is of the view that the clampdown on the media in recent times is part of the strategy of the PDP-led Federal Government to capture Osun State. It insists that it is part of a grand strategy to silence Nigerians. According to its National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, the clamp-down on the media has nothing to do with the Boko Haram or any ‘intelligence’ report. His words: “That is a ruse. Journalists do not carry weapons. They only fight with words. In fact, this terror band called Boko Haram has had occasions to threaten the media with attack over their reports exposing the terrorists for what they are. Therefore, the unprecedented and utterly indefensible clampdown on the media is part of a sinister plot that is not unconnected with the elections scheduled for this and next year.
“The PDP-led federal government’s strategy is simple: We must capture Ekiti and Osun at all cost, even when we may not have the votes to win the states. After that, we can then dare anyone who alleges rigging or election manipulation to head to court. In the meantime, we must tamper with the freedom of expression and the right to information, of which the media is at the vanguard.”
The party said anyone that believes this strategy is far-fetched only needs to look at the groundwork that has been laid for it by the President who picked both the Minister of Police Affairs and the Minister of State for Defence from the Southwest. “This Federal Government sees the Southwest as very critical to the President’s chances of getting re-elected next year, and has thus turned it to a battleground. They are desperate to capture Ekiti and Osun, which they see as the road to the heart of the Southwest next year. That explains their desperation about the elections in the two states,” Mohammed noted.
APC chieftains have alleged that Omisore goes about with thugs during his campaigns telling people “there is nothing you people can do because we have police and we have soldiers and we will show all of you APC supporters when we get to power. We are not begging you to vote, but we shall win.”
Ogun APC crisis
Observers have advised the APC to put its house in order in the Southwest, to ensure that it wards off the PDP’s ambition of staging a comeback in the region. Indications are that all is not well with the APC in Ogun and Oyo states. The leadership crises in the chapters have polarised the party. The situation is similar to what happened to the PDP in the build up to 2011 general elections. The PDP went to the poll as a divided party and this was the factor that helped the APC to sweep the polls in the two states.
The disagreement in Ogun State, for instance, is very critical and it may provide a leeway for the PDP to realise its ambition of regaining the control of the state. This is because the deep-seated animosity between Chief Olusegun Osoba, who is regarded as the APC leader in the state and Governor Ibikunle Amosun, has polarised the party. As such, both camps do not see eye-to-eye. The fight is over the control of the party structure and, unless this is addressed effectively, it has dire consequences for the ruling party in 2015. A chieftain of the APC in the state, who craved anonymity, said only a divine intervention can make the two factions work together next year. He said the animosity started far back in 2003 when Amosun mobilised the PDP to uproot the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) and Osoba, who was the governor, from the State House.
The animosity between them was rekindled when both of them found themselves in the same party, prior to the 2011 general elections. A source said that the friction was evident during the preparation for the governorship primaries before that election. According to the source, the Osoba group initially rejected the choice of Amosun for the governorship. It took the intervention of eminent personalities and traditional rulers before Osoba could agree. Though Amosun emerged as the party’s gubernatorial candidate, but loyalists of the former governor were rewarded with the three senatorial seats, nine House of Representatives tickets and 23 out of 26 House of Assembly tickets. Besides, Osoba was also given the privilege of picking the running mate to Amosun.
Shortly after Amosun’s inauguration, there was quarrel over the choice of commissioners and other members of the state executive council. The Osoba group alleged that the governor was planning to sideline those he met in the party. Amosun tried to appease the group by offering appointments to some stakeholders. The beneficiaries include: the former Speaker of the House of Assembly, Hon. Muyiwa Oladipo, senatorial chairmen of the defunct ACN in Ogun West and Ogun East districts, Mr. Falilu Sabitu and Mr. Daniel Adejobi. Other loyalists of Osoba serving in Amosun’s government include Ayo Olubori, Olu Adeyemi, Chief Sam Aiyedogbon, Mufau Ajibola and Chief Poju Adeyemi. In addition, many were also appointed as special advisers, chairmen and members of Boards of parastatals and agencies.
However, the governor’s move did not stop the cry of marginalisation. The Osoba group felt short-changed during the last local government election. They alleged that they were not given enough chairmanship and councillorship slots. The sharing formula, according to them, was grossly lopsided in favour of Amosun and his supporters.
This prompted pro-Osoba legislators to form a group known as “Mat’agba mole” (Don’t step on elder). They claim that Osoba was not accorded his proper place in the scheme of things. On his part, the governor has always said that Osoba is his leader and that there is nothing going on in the party and government that he’s not aware of.
Both camps have been trading blames. The Amosun group has faulted the steps taken by the aggrieved legislators. They queried their sincerity and motive towards the resolution of the crisis. The governor’s supporters have accused the Osoba group, particularly the legislators, of fanning the ember of disunity for personal gains and hiding under the name of the former governor.
An lawyer, Mr. Jide Ogunwale, expressed sadness over the turn of events. He said the national leadership of the APC should handle the crisis with extra care. The leaders, he advised, should bring the warring factions to negotiation table for the peaceful resolution of the crisis, if the party wants to retain the state in 2015. Ogunwale warned against under rating the political influence of any group.
Reconciliation in Oyo
The problem of the APC in Oyo State is largely egocentric. Shortly after Governor Abiola Ajimobi was inaugurated in 2011, he was confronted with the problem of harmonising contending interests within the party.
As the governorship primaries drew nearer in 2011, the camps within the party started to manifest. Prior to the shadow election, a deep rancour had developed among the contenders. They are Ajimobi, Senator Femi Lanlehin, Dr Ismail Adewusi, Mr Kazeem Adedeji and Chief Soji Akanbi. At the Olubadan Stadium, Ibadan, the venue of the primary election, close allies were compelled to break into camps, as many party stalwarts openly and overtly identified with the contestants of their choice. At the end, Ajimobi was affirmed as the winner. But, Lanlehin and other contestants cried foul and alleged that the process was manipulated in favour of Ajimobi. That was the beginning of the no love-lost relationship between Ajimobi and his co-contestants.
It took concerned party stalwarts led by the late Alhaji Lam Adesina time to pacify the aggrieved aspirants. Initially, the efforts to pacify them paid off, as some of them accepted party offers and gave peace a chance. There was relative peace in the party, which contributed to its victory at the poll.
The party defeated the PDP in the election. While Ajimobi emerged as the governor, Lanlehin was elected a senator.
Later, crisis erupted in the party. The party leadership said the governor did not consult them while constituting his cabinet. The governor was accused of picking most of his commissioners from outside the party. Party members who claimed to have worked for the electoral victory of the governor staged a protest.
Rather than abating, crisis has been festering, particularly between the governor and Lanlehin. Prior to 2011 governorship primaries and general elections, the relationship between them was very cordial. They were always seen together discussing how to improve the fortunes of their party in the elections.
Party chieftains Chief Michael Koleoso, tried to broker truce between the governor and Lanlehin. All efforts were in vain.
Ajimobi explained that Lanlehin and others are interested in his job.
Conflicts
Lanlehin denied having any break in relations with Ajimobi as a person, but admitted that he has an issue with him as the governor. His words: “The problem I have with Ajimobi is that he is not carrying stakeholders along in decision-making and formulation of policies for the state, which is at variance with the manifesto of the party. He runs the state with a few cabals, thereby isolating the majority of the stakeholders, and he doesn’t listen to advice in implementing policies that has to do with the lives of the people of the state.”
To buttress his point, Lanlehin cited the massive demolition of shops in Ibadan and environs by the governor without providing alternatives for the traders. He said although Ajimobi gave urban renewal and beautification as his reason for demolition but he should know that such anti-people policies cannot stand. “The people are central to any development, so you cannot destroy their means of livelihood in the name of development,” he added.
Lanlehin is not alone in detesting Ajimobi’s style of governance. The senator representing Oyo Central, Senator Ayoade Adeseun, has also complained against Ajimobi’s failure to carry along other stakeholders in the running of the state. Lanlehin and Adeseun are the two senators representing the APC in the senate. The two of them have left the party. Lanlehin has defected to the Accord Party, while Adeseun is said to be on his way to the PDP. Besides the two senators, there are other party leaders that are not happy with the governor and they are contemplating leaving the party.
Analysts say it would be a herculean task for the APC to retain the state in 2015. To get back to reckoning, the governor, they say, must improve his relationship with the people and work harder on the membership drive. Such analysts say the governor stands a good chance of being re-elected in 2015, because of his good programmes.
Lessons from Ekiti polls
Many lessons could be learned from the Ekiti election. According to observers, Fayose won the June 21 governorship election not because of the profile of the party, but as a result of the relationship he had cultivated with the people over the years. The party had an easy ride to victory on Fayose’s political credentials. On the other hand, some believe Fayemi failed because of the elitist’s structure of his government and his inability to relate with the common people at the grassroots. According to them, the results of the election indicated that people at the grassroots rejected his government.
Fayemi built roads and embarked on urban renewal. but, he was disconnected from the masses. There was a general perception that his government was elitist and he didn’t do anything to correct that impression. Fayose exploited these factors, particularly because he could connect with the people in a unique way. In the eight years he was not in office, he never left Ekiti. He did not become a Lagos or Abuja politician and the people noted it.
The party treated dissenting voices within its fold with disdain. As a result, pundits say the APC was a house divided against itself in the build up to the election.
A civil society activist and convener of Nigerian Voters’ Assembly, Comrade Moshood Erubami, blamed the APC for taking the electorate for granted in Ekiti, by not properly mobolising the people to ensure that they carry out their civic responsibility of voting on election day. He said that Aregbesola should learn from what happened in Ekiti. He said a situation whereby over 300,000 voters were disenfranchised because they could not present permanent voters’ cards on the day of election was a grievous mistake. He wondered how political parties were indifferent to the voters’ apathy towards collection of voting cards. He said in election a single vote is very important in deciding a winner. “I don’t know why the political parties could ignore 300,000 votes. It is unfortunate the party leaders failed to mobilise the electorate towards collecting the cards,” he added.
The civil society activist advised Aregbesola to ensure that all eligible voters collect their voters’ cards before the election. Erubami said that politicians must live in the heart of the people. “There is difference between politics of principle and politics of winning votes. They should create atmosphere of accessibility. They should run participatory government; that is to say, people should be part of government,” he said.
Human rights activist George Afolabi noted that the PDP victory in Ekiti cannot be ascribed to the personality of Fayose or his previous performance as governor, but to the federal might behind him. He advised the APC to throw its weight behind Aregbesola to ensure victory. “The PDP has declared Ekiti and Osun governorship elections as a war. All APC governors should rally support for Aregbesola for the party to retain Osun,” he added.
