President Goodluck Jonathan has postponed the presentation of the 2014 budget to the National Assembly. Correspondents VICTOR OLUWASEGUN and DELE ANOFI write on the politics of budget delay and its implications for governance.
Anxiety is mounting as President Goodluck Jonathan prepares to present the next year’s budget to the National Assembly. The budget presentation was postponed last month, following the shifting political allegiance in the Senate and the House of Representatives triggered by the defection of many legislators from the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP0 to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The presentation has been aborted on two occasions. The President may have read the handwriting on the wall. Although the government explaineed that the postponement became necessary because the House of Representatives was yet to conclude work on the 2014-2016 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP), and reconcile differences on the crude oil benchmark figure with the Senate, critics said that the delay was informed by political reasons.
In 2011, President Jonathan presented the 2012 budget proposal before the joint sitting of the National Assembly when the House of Representatives was yet to concluded work on the MTEF and FSP. It was the other way round when the President presented the 2013 budget proposal as the Senate was still working on the document. House Spokesman Zakari Mohammed alluded to that fact when he advised the President to put up other reasons for his failure to appear before the lawmakers as promised. “It is not our fault that the budget was not presented because the House is still within the timeframe for passing the MTEF”, he said.
Mohamed said the President was being diplomatic, recalling that the President had presented the budget in the past at a time the Senate had not passed the MTEFF.
“Last year, the Senate was yet to pass the MTEF, but the House had passed it when the President presented the budget. But, it was not an issue then. When we look at it from another angle, the coming of the MTEF to the NASS was even belated because, according to the constitution, the MTEF is supposed to be transmitted to the NASS six moths before the end of the year. But we got this in September,” he added.
According to Mohammed, the implementation of the budget may suffer. If this happens, he said the National Assembly will not take the blame.
Sources said the aborted presentation may not be unconnected with the alleged plan to embarrass the President by some aggrieved lawmakers, who have sympathy for the New Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). It was learnt that some of them wanted to demonstrate to the President that he does not command parliamentary majority support. Following the defection of five of seven aggrieved PDP governors, tension had enveloped the National Assembly. In fact, many legislators allegedly boasted that they would take a pound of flesh from the party for its culture of tyranny.
A PDP legislator from Kano State, Aliyu Madaki, however, urged the Presidency to embrace the reality. He said that the earlier the President and the PDP accept the new political reality on ground, the better for democracy in Nigeria. He said: “For me, I see this as a way forward for our democracy and with this, the future is not only bright for our democracy, but the entirety of Nigerian people. I believe Nigerians will begin to see a more vibrant federal legislature because there is a new order in place. We will leave the PDP. The injustice is too much. We will follow our governors; there’s no doubt about it. We cannot continue to stay and face injustice. This is the moment we have been waiting for, and this will eventually change the leadership in the House”.
Already, 57 New PDP legislators have openly reiterated their determination to oppose the President, if there is a compelling reason to do so in the national interest, and in accordance with the constitution.
Also, there are rumours that certain principal officers of the House may be removed. The Speaker, Hon. Aminu Tambuwal, is said to be working round the clock to appeal to the new power bloc to mellow down. It is believed that, when the 137 APC members and 57 new PDP members join forces, the 194 legislators may pull the rug off the feet of the PDP.
According to sources, the APC members were initially pushing for the removal of the Deputy Speaker, Emeka Ihedioha, the majority Leader, Mulikat Akande-Adeola, the Deputy Leader, Leo Ogor, the Chief Whip, Isiaka Mohammed Bawa, and the Deputy Chief Whip, Ahmed Mukhtar Mohammed. But, ahead of the APC’s plan to unveil the strength of its members, the Speaker moved to douse the tension generated by the proposed change in the power structure. However, the Minority Leader, Femi Gbajabiamila, said the unveiling is coming soon.
Tambuwal is popular on both sides. Therefore, he was able to persuade his colleagues to avoid any action capable of creating further division in the House.
The Presidency and the PDP have been scheming to break the ranks of the new PDP and the APC in the House. The desperation, according to a source, was borne out of the benchmark tussle and the need to give the President a soft landing in the National Assembly. It was alleged that the legislators took bribe to toe the party line. But on December 3, Deputy House Spokesman Victor Ogene debunked the allegation that each member received a 100,000 dollars to peg the benchmark of the 2014 budget at $76.5 per barrel of crude oil.
The benchmark has been a source of contention between the Presidency and the House, with the House insisting on $79 dollars per barrel against the Senate’s adoption of $76.5 per barrel.
The House went into a two-hour executive session on the issue of parameters to adopt on the 2014-2016 MTEF sent to the National Assembly by the President, particularly the benchmark. Ogene said members did not fight over the issue at the closed door session as alleged by some people.
“Seriously speaking, you all saw us when we came out smiling. The issues, I told you clearly, was between those who insisted that the benchmark remains at $79 and those who feel that that it was okay at $76.5”, he clarified.
The lawmaker while referring to the allegations of money- for- benchmark, cautioned Nigerians against glorifying rumours, adding: “If money went round in the Senate, I’m not a senator, and I’ve not read any such report. In fact, I’ve not seen any dollar. So, if money has come from anywhere, the question should be put to the person sending the money. I will be glad to get money on behalf of my people, if you have a leeway to the person sharing the money”.
Before the defection of the five governors, the cold war was raging in the PDP. A lawmaker said that the development was not surprising, pointing out that the PDP has always been in the minority, despite being the majority party in the House. The PDP member, who pleaded anonymity, said not many were taken by surprise by the defection, noting that, since the inception of the Seventh Assembly, Executive Bills and motions have often been resented.
She said: “PDP has always been in the monitory. It is not a new development because of the posture of those that have defected now. Though they were in the PDP, they were never sympathetic to the cause of the party. So, it is just only the few of us that have to battle every time to see that bills and motions sponsored by the executive see the light of the day and that has been a tough battle”.
President Jonathan has not been in the good books of the Lower Chamber. The legislators often complained that he had ignored their inputs into governance. Last month, over 30 bills listed for presidential assent were allegedly ignored. Some of the bills have been with the President for more than 60 days. According to the constitution, the President ought to have assented to them within 30 days. The lawmakers believed that it was a deliberate act, especially when a presidential aide said that resolutions of the National Assembly were mere opinions.
With the PDP on the brink of becoming the minority party, the days ahead may be difficult for the President. and vice versa for the hitherto opposition party, APC, options of muscle flexing for President Jonathan are disappearing and fast too, says a political analyst, Dr Alfred Armstrong.
According to a critic, Dr. Alfred Armstrong, the President has two options. He said: “If he sees the office as an opportunity to serve his people and leaves the country better than he met it, then, he must tow the line of compromise. Against what any of his advisers would say, President Jonathan must be ready to make sacrifice by instilling on the PDP members in the House that fact that the nation comes first and that they must not do anything to jeopardise motions, bills and reports emanating from the APC or other parties”.
Armstrong warned that, if compromise is jettisoned, the President and his party may lose the battle. He said that, even if the new PDP lawmakers refrain from defecting to the APC, their actions and activities would ultimately be detrimental to the interest of PDP.
“Intimidation and revenge, which are the second option would leave the country worse off. To agree on most matters of national importance would be a Herculean task for both the lawmakers and the Presidency. The power struggle would play out during the budget debate and executive bills would find it harder to scale through. We should also expect more vigorous and targeted investigations from the lawmakers.
“ If we put these together in another form, our democracy may be better for it, but the PDP would not find the new political equation too welcoming,” he added.
The Chairman of the House Committee on Petroleum (Downstream), Hon. Dakuku Peterside, said that the change in power structure would bring a better Nigeria. He said: “There has been a lot of alignment and realignment. There’s a whole new political current going on in the two chambers of the National Assembly. One thing that is certain is that the power configuration must change.
“Now, the change in power configuration will come with consequences and implications. It might affect the leadership of the parties in the National Assembly, and again, it will also affect the way the NASS relates with the executive arm of government. It might be negative or positive, but ultimately, it will be for the good of the Nigerian people. “For the first time, there will be effective checks and balances. It will no longer be family affairs. The days of family affairs are gone and gone for good. The politics of Nigeria will never be the same again.”
