This year is the mid-term for the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Many governors will also be on the weighing scale for assessment. Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU highlights important political issues that will shape politics and governance in 2025.
Politician are returning to the drawing board, barely one and half years after the last general election. Ahead of 2007, they are already plotting, scheming, regrouping, strategising and trying to rebrand.
It is a year of greater expectations, a mid term when actors are telescoping into the future with a mixture of excitement, hope and anxiety
Mid-term assessment:
This year is very important to the political class. In June, there would be a mid-term assessment of the Tinubu administration and how far the President has been able to fulfil his campaign promises across the sectors, particularly his much projected ‘Renewed Hope Agenda.’ The perception of the populace about the government is expected to shape the general preparations for next year, which would be the eve of another poll.
The outlook of political economy this year may herald hope. Many commentators are of the opinion that there is an unfinished business. The cost of living is soaring while the quality of life is declining. But, according to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the country will reap bountifully from the cumulative sacrifices. For example, the closing weeks of last year were characterised by good tidings. Like a phoenix, Port-Harcourt and Warri refineries rose gradually from the ashes. If the meagre achievement is properly managed, if there is appreciable reduction in the price of fuel, the cost of living may also gradually reduce.
Lawyer and commentator, Jide Ojo, who submitted that politics cannot be divorced from the economy, described this year as a “year of consolidation of reforms, economically and politically.” He believes that if the economy is doing well, it would impact positively on politics.
Time is also of essence. That is why there is need for the speedy implementation of the bold reforms of the administration to produce the desired results. If the programmes flounder, the opposition may wax stronger, drawing from popular sentiments of diverse citizens who are affected by the exercise of power and authority. “We only have 2005 for proper governance, ” said Ojo, who stressed that politics will fully kick off in 2026.
No doubt, many mounting political challenges and issues would be carried over to 2025, and political actors across the divides would affect, just as they would be affected, by the forces of socio-political pressure.
Rivers crisis:
In the last one year, Rivers State has run into turbulence. Peace has eluded the ruling party, the opposition party, the House of Assembly and the state government. As the successor-predecessor crisis escalated, the state became polarised, with the camp of Governor Simialayi Fubara and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Nyesom Wike locking horns.
Crisis had engulfed the oil-rich state, barely six months after Wike handed over to Fubara. The former governor complained that the governor was dismantling the structure that worked for his victory. Also, Wike alleged that Fubara was gravitating to foes who opposed his nomination and election while neglecting those who laboured to put him into office.
The governor has fired back, saying that the minister was highhanded and not allowing him to be his own man. The peace deal brokered by President Tinubu collapsed like a pack of cards. The elders’ forum split, with one section backing Fubara and another supporting Wike.
As violence erupted, the House of Assemly complex became a casuality. It was brought down. To the 27 House of Assembly members, led by Martin Amaewhule, Fubara is an ingrate, who has turned around to bite the fingers that fed him. But, to the three lawmakers, led by factional Speaker Victor Oko-Jumbo, Wike does not own Rivers.
Fubara only recognises Oko-Jumbo group. The governors is adamant that Amaewhule and other lawmakers have defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). The 27 have denied the allegation.
Two weeks ago, the court ruled that the statutory allocations to Rivers councils cannot be withheld by the Federal Government.
This year, the Supreme Court will rule on the claim and counter-claim of defection, and the verdict will be final.
The anticipated judgment has implications for the two sides. If the claim of defection is proved beyond reasonable doubt, the 27 cease to be lawmakers, or if they remain as lawmakers, Amaewhule would cease to be Speaker.
However, if the court rules that there was no defection, Amaewhule will become the authentic Speaker. The relations between the Executive and Legislature in Rivers are better imagined. Neither of the two verdicts will restore peace. Either way, both divides will gird their loins for the 2027 battle of strength and supremacy.
The only viable option is political solution. Indeed, reconciliation is the answer. So far, there is no dialogue. According to observers, much progress cannot be made in an atmosphere of discord.
PDP crisis:
Since 2023, PDP has been battling with leadership crisis. Having violated its self-imposed convention and principle of presidential zoning, things started falling apart and the centre could not hold.
Read Also: Why we had to remove fuel subsidy, by Tinubu
The crisis of rotation led to the defeat of the party during the last presidential election. The G-5 held the party in the jugular with justification. The former national chairman, Senator Iyorchia Ayu, was consumed by the conflict.
But, his ouster did not pave the way for peace. The deputy national chairman, Ambassador Umar Damagum, has been under intense pressure by some chieftains to leave as acting chairman. The ‘Damagun-must-go’ crusaders believe that a stalwart from the Northcentral should succeed Ayu.
It is the continuation of the battle for the soul of the main opposition party by the Wike camp and the Atiku Abubakar forces. The rivalry started at the PDP presidential primary, which paled into a clash of regions – North and South. That was when Atiku emerged as the winner. As recalled by former Deputy National Chairman, Chief Olabode George, “Tambuwal, who addressed the convention, announced his withdrawal from the race, and urged delegates to vote for Atiku, a move that shifted the dynamics.
“Tambuwal’s actions, praised by Ayu as the ‘hero of the convention,’ unknowingly sowed the seeds of the current crisis, undermining the party’s founding principles.”
So far, efforts by the Atiku camp to displace Damagum has failed. The acting chairman is leaning on the court judgment that has affirmed his position until when the party, under his leadership, organises a convention this year for the selection of another chairman from the Northcentral.
Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed is leading the PDP Governors’ Forum. The relationship of the forum with Atiku cannot be determined yet.
In fact, PDP suffers due to the absence of a virile, united and cohesive leadership that can also galvanised its vast followership. Despite the pretension, its organs – thd National Working Committee (NWC), National Executive Committee (NEC) and Board of Trustees (BoT) are divided. The wisdom that permitted the opposition spearheaded by Tinubu to weather the storm and survive is grossly lacking in the current PDP leadership. There is more emphasis on personal and particularistic agenda than the the sustenance of group interest and collective survival.
This year, the party is expected to choose a new chairman. Indisputable, the next chairman will come from the Northcentral. Aspirants, according to party sources, include Senator David Mark, who is said to be reluctant, Senator Gabriel Suswan, a former governor of Benue State, Contrad Utaan and Hon. Ombugagu from Nasarawa State.
Currently, the national secretariat is battling with legal and legitimate crisis. The question is: who is the authentic national secretary between Senator Samuel Anyanwu and former National Youth Leader Sunday Ude-Okoye?
Ude-Okoye has vowed to resume as national secretary, saying that Anyanwu has ceased to be national secretary, following the judgment of the Court of Appeal that displaced him.
Ude-Okoye had approached the court seeking the nullification of Anyanwu’s return to the position after his failed governorship bid in Imo State.
However, a party source, said nobody can be recognised as the authentic national secretary until the judgment of the Supreme Court on the matter.
Justice Ridwan Abdullahi of Appeal Court, Enugu, who delivered the judgment, said Anyanwu’s return to the position of national secretary after emerging as the PDP governorship candidate in Imo State in last year’s elections violated the party’s constitution. The judge said his appeal lacked merit.
Although the judge ordered the implementation of the judgement within 24 hours, Anyanwu has held on to the position while his supporters claimed that only the Supreme Court can invalidate the claim.
Ude-Okoye rejected the claim, saying that PDP may run into turbulence because Anyanwu’s authority to organize activities, sign documents and conduct the official activities lacks legal backing. He also said Anyanwu’s continued stay in office may jeopardise the party’s preparation for national convention next year.
Ude-Okoye said: “If Anyanwu continues in this role and oversees the convention, all decisions, including the potential selection of a presidential candidate, could be nullified if challenged in court.”
He warned about the consequences of harbouring an interloper as party secretary, adding: “This is not just about me. It’s about the survival· of the party; we are all bound by the Appeal Court’s judgment.
“This is a defining moment· for the PDP; we must respect the rule of law and prioritize the party’s collective interests over personal ambitions. How the PDP navigates this internal crisis will determine its ability to maintain its role as Nigeria’s leading opposition party.”
The Supreme Court will rule on the intra-party squabble this year.
Direct allocation to councils:
As from this year, the 774 local governments will receive their allications directly from the Federation Account, unlike when the funds were lodged in the State/Local Government Joint Account.
A seven-justice panel of the Supreme court headed by Justice Mohammed Garba, in the judgment delivered by Justice Emmanuel Agim, ruled that the councils are entitled to the freedom to manage their own funds.
In May last year, the Federal Governmet, through the Attorney-Heneral of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), filed a suit at the Supreme Court accusing the state governments of not properly running the local governments.
State governments, through their Attorneys, fought spiritedly to maintain the status quo. But, the apex court, in granting the prayer of the Federal Government for autonomy, condemned the dissolution of elected local councils by state governors.
Justice Agim said: “It is the position of this court that the federation can pay local government allocations directly to the local governments or through the states. In this case, since paying them through the states has not worked, justice demands that local government allocations from the Federation Accounts should henceforth, be paid directly to the local governments.”
He added: “I hold that the states’ retention of local government funds is unconstitutional.”
The direct disbursement of funds would have implications for state/local government relations.
Following the judgment and threat to suspend allocation to councils run by unelected officers, governors have been conducting local government elections.
Some governors have tried to enact some laws, using their House of Assembly, to bring the councils under the state’s financial control,but without success. However, the state, through the legislature, still has power of political and administrative control on the councils.
Opinion is divided on the financial liberty to the grassroots governance structure. Many have argued that the move would foster development and liberate the council operators from the highhandedness of governors who cornerned and abused council money in the past. The financial autonomy is also expected to change the dynamics of grassroots politicking. The positions of chairmen and councilorship are now expected to be keenly contested. More Nigerians are most likely to show interest in council politics because it guarantees access to public resources at that level.
Currently, many councils lack capacity due to the quality of staff for professional jobs in accounting, legal services, refuse disposaland public works. Another challenge is curbing corruption at the councils.
Opposition coalition:
The distressed and scattered opposition parties have opened talks on the possibility of collaboration or coalition ahead of 2027. It has not been smooth. But, they are likely to intensify more efforts this year.
There is a setback. These opposition parties are not united by similarity of ideas. Their focus is how to wrest power from the ruling party. Mergers are not contemplated. Neither is fusion on the agenda. The motive is transcient parley characterised by power sharing, which is neither here or there.
Signals, so far, suggest failure. There are four main opposition parties in the real sense of the word – PDP, New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) of Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, which controls only one state, Kano; Labour Party (LP), which is now more divided than it was during the last general election, and All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), which is not struggling to become a national party, but permanently satisfied with retaining power in Anambra State, its major stronghold.
There are puzzles: what would be the place of zoning in the alliance? What are the terms of collaboration?
Will candidates from the North still push for a northern candidate when conventionally, the South is still favoured by presidential zoning in 2027? Also, how would the targetted offices be shared?
Atiku, who is proposing the deal – collaboration or parley -according to sources, is interested in vying for president. Would Peter Obi, his one time-running mate, agree to pair with him in 2027 without incurring the anger of “partyless obidients” who have no allegeance to any party?
Would the former vice president endorse Obi for president and be his running mate or donate a running mate to him? This is most unlikely.
The conflict or clash of ambitions may be a setback to any opposition collaborative agenda.
Last week, Kwakwanso rejected the offer of parley. He doubted if the plan for a united front could work, ruling out the prospect of collaboration and power sharing deal with Atiku and Obi. The former governor of Kano State cited lack of trust as his main reason.
Dismissing the “increasing speculations” about a 2027 pact with Atiku, who ran for president on the platform of PDP in last year’s election, and his LP counterpart, Obi, as a ruse, Kwankwaso said he was ready to fall for the unpardonable deception and antics of the PDP, which led to the defection of many big wigs from the platform.
He lamented that some politicians, including those who never did anything tangible for the North, are working hard to manipulate sentiments across the northern states in a desperate bid for political power in 2027.
Kwankwaso denied any meeting with Atiku and Obi for the purpose of exploring opportunities for political cooperation. He even said any discussion on 2007 politics could distract the federal and state governments from focusing on governance.
He said: “I got information from sources purporting that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and I have met. But what I know is that nobody contacted me and I have not spoken with Atiku.
“Also, I have not spoken with Peter Obi because I decided that until the end of this year 2024), it is better to allow state governments and the Federal Government to work for the people and apply their wisdom in governance.”
Denying any involvement the rumoured power sharing plot, Kwankwaso said it was a lie.
He added: “The most annoying thing is that some people in the PDP told a group of about 45 (Islamic) scholars that there is a consensus that Atiku will rule for four years, Kwankwaso will subsequently rule for four years and Peter Obi, eight years; this is totally a lie, it is not true.”
“This has infuriated me: why is ihat elder statesmen in their 70s, 80s, will be spreading such lies to these scholars about something that has never existed?
“Such statements and deceits were part of things that made me and some other people leave the (PDP) party and now they have destabilised the party.”
Kwankwaso recalled that the desperate and selfish agenda of certain PDP leaders forced hiim and Obi to leave the party. He pointed out that a similar scenario is being re-enacted in a bid to manipulate sentiments and corner the support of the North.
Kwankwaso said: “For me to accept any alliance arrangements, we have to go back to history; I understand PDP in totality. I know that their plan is to procure a party or be beating around the bush in other parties, bring us together to make northerners vote for them.
“But what we are asking them is: ‘what have they done for the North before?’ These are the kind of things that will come into play.
Kwankwaso doubted the prospect of collaborating with PDP leaders who humiliated and fored him out of the party.
He said: “To my mind, we have witnessed the worst of humiliation from these people; we love the party, we wanted to rejig it so that we can all prosper. But they made us to leave by force.
“Kwankwaso left, Peter Obi left, Wike left and others left too and there is no estimate of the number of those who left; yet they are the same people coming now to the fore, expressing interest in being made President (in 2027)”
The NNPP leader said “even if all that such persons can do now is to express remorse or seek forgiveness, it won’t change the fact that people like him had been deceived and humiliated in the past.” Two days ago, Obi also declined involvement in any alliance, talk or power sharing deal. Which way for the opposition alliance?
National Youth Conference:
President Tinubu has announced that the proposed National Youth Conference (NYC) will hold in the first quarter. The purpose is to give the youths a voice, to enable them articulate their interest, ventilate their grievances and make vital suggestions in aid of good governance and nation building.
However, the Youth Confab may not be like the typical National Conference, Constitutional Conference, or Sovereign National Conference, in character, objective, and composition. It may therefore, be restrictive. Yet, it is likely to be an upgraded Youth Parliament that currently exists in many states where the youths bare their minds and interface with government representatives on issues bordering on their welfare, growth and development.
The proposed Youth Confab will have a national outlook. It is expected to foster inclusion and unity. The youth accounts for 60 per cent of the population. They are many young professionals – lawyers, doctors, financial experts, engineers, architects, ICT gurus, researchers, authors, and scientists. The ball is now in the court of the ‘Gen Z’ to clarify their thoughts on burning national socio-economic and political issues as the country intensifies the search for solutions.
The nation awaits the modalities for the proposed Confab and selection of the delegates. The process, the president said during his October 1, 2024 broadcast, would be designed in close consultation with the young people through their representatives.
The first question is: how would the age bracket of delegates be determined? The second is the composition, the delegates’ size and gender parity. Some may even make a case for ethnic consideration, religious balance and slots for youths wiith disabilities.
The third is the delineation of the youth constituencies for the recruitment of delegates, from geo-political zones, states, campuses, reputable youth organisations, the academia and other professional institutions, the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), the government, political parties, persons with disabilities, and the gang of aggrieved protesters against what they have uncritically described as bad governance.
The fourth is the setting up of a Conference Secretariat that will comprise youths and, indeed, selected ‘youth-at-heart’ elders who have to donate their wealth of experience to the delegates and offer guidance to the process.
Labour Party crisis
LP may be ebbing away, no thanks to its protracted leadership crisis. The court has invalidated the National Caretaker Committee headed by Senator Esther Nenadi Usman, former Minister of State for Finance and a defector from the PDP. Julius Abure, a lawyer, was affirmed as national chairman. But, it appears that he is leading a carcass.
The lone governor, Alex Otti of Abia State, has turned his back on the party. During last year’s council polls in the state, his annointed candidates borrowed another smaller party for the exercise. They won.
The House of Representatives and Assembly members elected on the fragile platform have been retracing their steps to where they belong. A mass defection has hit LP due to the absence of the leadership that has the capacity to resolve crisis, embark on membership drive and enlarge the coast of the party. The party cannot enforce supremacy and discipline.
As the party wobbled on to its national convention last year, it was also confronted by the challenge of ownership or copyright. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has insisted on the right of a founder. The party leadership has rejected the claim, saying that the party has a life of its own.
Will LP survive? If it survives, would it grow beyond its perception as a party borrowed periodically by aggrieved politicians from other parties, only to be dumped later?
Constitution review:
Since the state governments have now submitted their proposals for state police, it is expected that there may be harmonisation of the diverse suggestions. If the harmonisation happens this year, the constitution would have to be amended to permit multi-layer policing structure in the country.
But, judging by the antecedents of the National Assembly, there is usually a snail-like approach to constitution review. Amendments are done piecemeal. But, judging by the intensity and consistency of the clamour for state police, and ib the light of the prevailing security situation, the idea of state police cannot be discarded.
The National Assembly Committee on the Constitution Review chaired by Deputy Speaker Jibrin Barau and Benjamin Kalu have been consulting widely and collating ideas at the various public hearings. Issues before the committees are many – state creation, which is a tall order, agitation for spliting of Attorney General and Justice Minister, decentralisation of the SupremeCourt, electoral reforms to permit full complete electronic voting, independent candidacy, Diaspora voting and special status for Lagos. The panel is expected to deepen the consultations this year.
VAT bill controversy:
The National Assembly is not yet on the same page on the proposed Value Added Tax (VAT) component of the tax reform bill. There is no consensus of opinion, despite the reasoning and logic of the reforms.
While emphasising that rax reforms have come to stay, he also stressed that the Federal Government is open to negotiations on VAT. “Tax matters are subject of debates, reviews, negotiations, not huge concessions.” President Tinubu said.
The Taiwo Oyedele committee has explained the motivation for the reforms to a range of stakeholders. But it beholds the pro-reform federal legislators to gain the confidence of their colleagues who are bent on resisting and frustrating the passage of the bill.
Since the president has offered more opportunities for debate, dialogue, review and negotiation, political solution may herald critical compromise, understanding and reconciliation.
Other issues:
Other issues of political import this year are the swearing in of Ondo State Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa this month, the trial of former governors in furtherance of the anti-corruption war, the conduct of by-elections to fill the vacancies created in the National Assembly by the demise of federal legislators, the appointment of ambassadors for embassies and the likely release of timetable for next year’s Ekiti and Osun governorship elections by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).