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Tag: predicts

  • Zeus Polls predicts big APC win in 2019

    An independent Europe-based pollsters Zeus Polls, has predicted that the All Progressives Congress (APC) may likely win most states in the 2019 gubernatorial elections.

    The Zeus Polls predicted Anamnra State Governor Willie Obiano and Ekiti State Governor-elect Dr Kayode Fayemi’s victories.

    The latest Zeus Polls findings signed by Polls Chief Operating Officer in Berlin, Germany, Tanko Suleiman, , was made available to reporters in Lagos yesterday.

    The polls posited that  in spite of a seemingly voters’ antipathy to the APC in the upcoming 2019 general elections, the party is favoured to win the 2019 governorship elections in key states.

    It noted that 51 per cent of voters polled in Kaduna State expressed a desire to return incumbent Gov. Nasir el-Rufai come 2019.

    “65 per cent of voters polled in Lagos State want incumbent Governor  Ambode returned in 2019 while 58 per cent of voters polled in Edo State say they will return incumbent Gov. Godwin Obaseki.

    “In the PDP-held Rivers State, 65 per cent of voters polled do not want incumbent Governor Nyesom Wike back in 2019, as over 47 per cent of polled voters said they will vote, a riverine aspirant of the APC if he picks the party’s ticket.

    “In Kano State, only 43 per cent of voters polled are in favour of Governor Abdullahi Ganduje returning in 2019, as 60 per cent say they will vote for any candidate supported by former Governor Kwankwanso’s Kwankwasiyya Movement,” it stated.

    The organisation however, said its findings on who may likely emerge as president was still uncertain but added that  it would release monthly updates, on the continuous exhaustive polling on the 2019 Elections.

  • NiMet predicts cloudy, sunny weather

    NiMet predicts cloudy, sunny weather

    THE Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has predicted partly cloudy to cloudy weather conditions over the central States of the country today.

    NiMet’s Weather Outlook by its Central Forecast Office in Abuja yesterday also predicted day and night temperatures in the range of 31 to 39 and 13 to 27 degrees Celsius respectively.

    It added that there were chances of isolated thunderstorms over Kogi during the afternoon and evening period.

    The agency predicted that the southern States would experience cloudy morning with chances of localised thunderstorms over Calabar, Porthacourt, Eket and its environs with day and night temperatures be in the range of 32 to 36 and 22 to 26 degrees Celsius respectively.

    It also predicted prospects of localised thunderstorms over the entire region including Oshogbo, Akure, Ibadan, Abeokuta, Benin, Umuahia, Enugu, Warri, Awka, Owerri, Calabar, Porthacourt and Eket during afternoon and evening hours.

    According to NiMet, northern states will experience sunny conditions throughout the forecast period with day and night temperatures in the range of 37 to 41 and 13 to 19 degrees Celsius respectively.

  • FSDH predicts 27.4% average return for equities in 2018

    Nigerian equities can  generate an average return of 27.43 per cent this year, building on the average gain of 42.3 per cent recorded last year, a report has said.

    In its ‘Economic and Financial Outlook 2018-2022’ report, FSDH Merchant Bank Group stated that the overall macroeconomic performance will continue to improve, strengthening sectoral growths and returns.

    The report, prepared by FSDH Research, the research and investment advisory arm of the wholesale banking group, noted that Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could grow by 3.16 per cent and 4.09 per cent in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

    According to the report, the outlook for Nigerian equities remains positive in 2018 as the macroeconomic environment is expected to strengthen further.

    “Thus we forecast a growth of 27.43 per cent in 2018, lower than the growth of 42.30 per cent recorded in 2017. We expect a strong rally in the equity market in the first half of the year 2018. We see investment opportunities in the banking, building materials and consumer goods sectors of the market,” FSDH stated.

    FSDH expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to ease monetary policy as inflation rate declines and exchange rate remains stable, thus stimulating growth in credits to the private sector, rebound in the activities in the corporate bond market, increase in the issuance of commercial paper and a growth in the equity market.

    The Group however, noted that increased attraction of equities and reduction in interest rates may lead to substantial drop in the average yields on fixed income securities in 2018 when compared with the previous year.

    Outlining the benefits of long-term investment strategy in equities market, FSDH, in a related report, advised investors to maintain long-term investment strategy in the equity market as analysis of the historical returns of the equity market shows that investors make good returns if they invest in stocks that have strong fundamentals and maintain a long-term view.

    “An investor who maintains a long-term strategy will earn capital appreciation, cash dividend and/or bonus over the investment horizon. Our analysis of the yearly returns of the equity market as measured by the Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (ASI) between 2008 and February 07, 2018 shows that the market recorded both losses and gains during the period. Although the equity market depreciated in more years than it appreciated, some stocks recorded returns in excess of 1,000 per cent,” FSDH stated.

    According to the investment banker, an analysis of the total return of an initial investment of N100,000 each in the 10 highest capitalised stocks, excluding Dangote Cement and Seplat Petroleum Development Company, between December 2008 and February 7, 2018 shows that Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank) recorded the highest return of 1,100 per cent.

    The breakdown of the total return by GTBank shows that capital appreciation, cash dividend and bonus issue contributed 33 per cent, 20 per cent and 47 per cent respectively.

    The investment firm also urged investors to engage their investment manager before they invest in the equity market as the manager will help to create an equity portfolio for the investor based on his investment objectives while the client will also benefit from the experience of the investment manager.

    The wholesale banker however cautioned that the macroeconomic performance might be impacted negatively by any social unrest in some parts of the country, which may affect economic activities and lead to escalating inflation rate as well as external factors that can lead to a significant drop in the crude oil price and possible capital flight out of Nigeria in the event of excessive interest rate increase in the advanced economies.

    FSDH noted that although the political outlook remains stable, electioneering activities may slow down economic activities and exert upward pressure on prices.

  • FBNQuest Capital predicts 25% return for equities in 2018

    FBNQuest Capital Limited Capital, the investment banking subsidiary of FBN Holdings Plc, has predicted that the Nigerian equities market would sustain a bullish run for the second consecutive year with a double digit return of 25 per cent in 2018.

    In its preview of 2018, FBNQuest stated that Nigerian equities may add to the 42.3 per cent full-year gain recorded last year, with a further 25 per cent gain in the year to push the benchmark index to 47,800.

    The investment and economic outlook report noted that with a year-to-date gain of about 18 per cent already in 2018, there is slightly more than six per cent upside potential.

    The report noted that the narrowing of yields on Federal Government of Nigeria paper has a little further to run due to official debt strategy and a firmer total bid. This could amount to 100 basis points across the bond curve, according to the research report.

    According to the report, while the race for the presidency in February 2019 has started, political distractions may not have significant slowdown effect on the economy.

    “It is said that such years are lost because of the political distraction. In our view 2018 is not lost because the FGN will step up the pace of its fiscal expansion, notably with capital releases. This fiscal stimulus is a core element in our Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth forecast of 2.4 per cent this year. Additionally, we see an increase in crude oil production, selective private investment and the positive impact of the foreign exchange reforms. Beyond 2018 household consumption will recover, leading to acceleration in growth,” FBNQuest stated.

    The report noted that the monetary authorities have arrived at exchange-rate policies that are a success in many ways, and have grown greatly in confidence.

    “They are under no real pressure to change tack and they benefit from the “official” rate for priority transactions. Foreign exchange has become widely available. Manufacturers have it, as do middle class Nigerians with bills to pay outside the country and offshore portfolio investors. Further, its price is stable, and the CBN even thinks it should fall,” FBNQuest noted.

    According to FBNQuest, there could be the first rate cuts since July 2016 in response to slowing inflation in the first half of 2018.

    “Positive base effects are coming into play, and we see easing of 150 basis points over the full year,” FBNQuest stated.

    Nigerian equities had recorded average full-year return of 42.3 per cent in 2017. With a net capital gain of N4.36 trillion, investors in Nigerian equities technically recovered what they had lost in the past three years.

    The stock market had been on a losing streak since 2014. Investors lost N1.75 trillion in 2014 and followed this with another loss of N1.63 trillion in 2015. Against the general expectation that political transition and new government will quicken a rebound, equities closed 2016 with a net capital loss of N604 billion. Aggregate market value of all quoted equities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) closed 2016 at N9.247 trillion as against N13.226 trillion recorded at the start of trading in 2014, representing a net capital loss of N3.98 trillion. The turnaround in 2017 represented a fillip for the hard-pressed Nigerian investors.

    Aggregate market value of all quoted equities on the NSE closed 2017 at N13.609 trillion as against its opening value of N9.247 trillion for the year, representing net capital gain of N4.36 trillion. The All Share Index (ASI)-the main common price index that tracks share prices at the NSE, indicated average year-to-date return of 42.30 per cent, rising from the year’s opening index of 26,874.62 points to close the year at 38,243.19 points. Generally, it appeared to be more of a bounteous harvest that leaves no one with an empty hand.

    All major sectoral indices at the stock market showed a market-wide rally. Investors in the banking sector were far ahead of other sectors with the NSE Banking Index indicating average year-to-date return of 73.32 per cent. The NSE 30 Index, which tracks the 30 most capitalised companies, posted above average return of 46.14 per cent, underlining the fact that the recovery was partly driven by large-cap stocks. The NSE Consumer Goods Index closed the year with a gain of 36.97 per cent. The NSE Industrial Goods Index rose by 23.84 per cent. The NSE Insurance Index posted a modest return of 10.36 per cent, despite the lacklustre performance of most insurance stocks that had stagnated over the years at nominal value of 50 kobo.

    With the major oil marketers such as 11 Plc, formerly Mobil Oil Nigeria and Forte Oil among the worst-performing stocks, the NSE Oil and Gas Index recorded the least return of 5.76 per cent. The NSE Lotus Islamic Index-which tracks ethical stocks in compliance with Islamic rulings, posted a gain of 39.03 per cent, underlining the attractiveness of ethical investment in the midst of the rally.

    The NSE Lotus Islamic Index excludes interest-based banks, breweries, gambling and overleveraged companies among others.  The NSE Pension Index, which tracks a portfolio of stocks specially screened in line with the pension investment guidelines, showed above-average return of 70.33 per cent.

  • World Bank predicts 2.5% growth for Nigeria in 2018

    World Bank predicts 2.5% growth for Nigeria in 2018

    The World Bank forecasts that Nigeria’s economic growth will edge up to at least 2.5 per cent this year, as the country benefits from improved commodity prices, investments and trade.

    According to the World Bank’s January 2018 Global Economic Prospect report launched yesterday  in Washington DC, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 2.8 per cent in 2019 and 2020.

    The World Bank forecast that global economic growth will go up to 3.1 per cent in the year 2018.

    According to the bank, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to continue to rise to 3.2 per cent in 2018 and to 3.5 per cent in 2019, on the back of firming commodity prices and gradually strengthening domestic demand.

    However, the report showed that growth would remain below pre-crisis averages, partly reflecting a struggle in larger economies to boost private investment.

    “South Africa is forecast to tick up to 1.1 per cent growth in 2018 from 0.8 per cent in 2017. The recovery is expected to solidify, as improving business sentiment supports a modest rise in investment.

    “However, policy uncertainty was likely to remain and could slow needed structural reforms.

    “Nigeria is anticipated to accelerate to a 2.5 per cent rate this year from one per cent growth in the year just ended. An upward revision to Nigeria’s forecast is based on expectation that oil production will continue to recover and that reforms will lift non-oil sector growth.

    “Growth in Angola is expected to increase to 1.6 per cent in 2018, as a successful political transition improves the possibility of reforms that ameliorate the business environment,” it stated.

    According to the report, Côte d’Ivoire is forecast to expand by 7.2 per cent in 2018, Senegal by 6.9 per cent; Ethiopia by 8.2 per cent, Tanzania by 6.8 per cent, and Kenya by 5.5 per cent as inflation eases.

    The World Bank said that the regional outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa was subject to external and domestic risks. It showed that any unexpected activity in the United States and Euro Zone could have a negative impact on the region.

    Also, an abrupt slowdown in China could generate adverse spillovers to the region through lower-than-expected commodity prices.

    “On the domestic front, excessive external borrowing without forward-looking budget management could worsen debt dynamics and hurt growth in many countries.

    “A steeper-than-anticipated tightening of global financing conditions could also lead to a reversal in capital flows to the region. Protracted political and policy uncertainty could further hurt confidence and deter investment in some countries.

    “Rising government debt levels highlight the importance of fiscal adjustment to contain fiscal deficits and maintain financial stability.

    “Structural policies including education, health, labour market, governance, and business climate reforms could help bolster potential growth,’’ it stated.

    The World Bank called on policy makers around the world to focus on human investments to increase their countries’ productivity, and move closer to the goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity.

  • FSDH Merchant Bank predicts robust income

    Companies will make higher profit and consumers will earn more money in 2018, leading investment banker-FSDH Merchant Bank Limited, has said.

    In its latest preview and research report, FSDH Merchant Bank stated that business profit and consumer income will grow higher in 2018 than in the last three years.

    The wholesale banker stated that its analysis of the recent data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on the business and consumer expectations confirms the position on higher corporate profit and consumer income.

    The surveys that the CBN conducted in December 2017 had shown that the expectations of firms and consumers about the next 12 months improved from previous months.

    According to FSDH, the improvement in the business expectations should drive business expansion and increase the employment of labour. This, in turn, will increase the consumers’ purchasing power. On the other hand, the increase in consumer expectations will increase spending which will have positive impact on businesses.

    FSDH noted that the interrelationship between the two economic agents-business and consumer, will drive business profit and consumer income

    The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report published for the month of December 2017 by the CBN had shown improved business activities in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. At 59.3 and 62.1 points, the Composite Manufacturing PMI and Composite Non-Manufacturing PMI respectively attained the highest levels since January 2015.

    “The impact of the expected growth in the business profit and consumer income is positive to the financial market. We expect it to drive equity market investments and position corporates to access long-term capital needed for expansion. Banks should also be more favourable to extend credit to both businesses and individuals, leading to a growth in the National Disposable Income,” FSDH stated.

    The investment banker added that the recent drop in the yields on the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) should also lower the borrowing cost for the business sector, which should also boost production activities and increase profits.

    FSDH also expected improved debt issues by companies as they respond positively to decline in cost of borrowing.

  • Obaje predicts home win for Plateau Utd

    Obaje predicts home win for Plateau Utd

    Plateau United’s striker, Joshua Obaje has revealed that the Peace Boys are desperate to record a home win against Wikki Tourists in a North Central local derby on Sunday.

    The Jos side relinquished their position as league leaders on Wednesday despite picking a point against Rivers United in Port Harcourt but they will return to the top of the table if they beat Wikki at the Rwang Pam Stadium and MFM fail to defeat Nasarawa United in Lafia.

    Obaje who has been in sparkling form for Plateau United agreed that the Sunday tie will be tough but that they are out to repay the confidence repose in them by all in the club and the state government also by getting the maximum points and returning to the top of the table.

    Plateau United are currently second on the log with 29 points from 16 games and are up against 16th placed Wikki who have 18 points from 15 fixtures.

  • Obaroapko predicts good season

    Abia Warriors’  defender, Augustine Obaroakpo has told SportingLife that the Umuahia side’s pre season build up in Omoku has toughened the team and are poised to make meaningful impact when the season kicks off away to Ikorodu United on February 21.

    Obaroakpo disclosed that he based his optimism on the sparkling form of the team during their pre season build up which culminated in a 3-0 whitewash of Bayelsa United on Saturday in Omoku’s Krisdera Hotel Stadium.

    Abia Warriors are to return to Umuahia today to finalise preparation for the start of the season after playing another friendly match against Dolphins yesterday also in Omoku.

    The CHAN Eagles’ defender also revealed to SportingLife that he has decided to remain with Abia Warriors for another season and that despite overtures from other rivals clubs he told them point-blank that he has given his word to the Umuahia side.

  • Babangida predicts tough World Cup campaign for Eaglets

    Babangida predicts tough World Cup campaign for Eaglets

    Former Golden Eaglets player (Japan ’93), Ibrahim Babangida has predicted a difficult game for Nigeria on Saturday against USA at the 2015 FIFA U-17 World Cup in Chile.

    Nigeria , who are housed in group A of the 16th edition of the tournament, will be hoping for a winning start after comfortable wins over Argentina’s U-17 and Club Racing in a pre-tournament camp in Buenos Aires.

    Meanwhile, Babangida expressed optimism with the team’s chances of living up to the country’s pedigree at this level.

     

  • Etu predicts Warri Wolves’ win over Heartland

    Etu predicts Warri Wolves’ win over Heartland

    Warri Wolves’ Media Manager, Moses Etu, believes The Seasiders wil beat Heartland FC on Sunday in a Glo Premier League Match Day Six tie.

    Etu told SportingLife that Heartland FC have always been tough and formidable opponents but that Wolves know how to handle them and get the maximum points they really desire having secured only three points from a possible nine in three matches.

    He said they would like to use the match with Heartland FC as their final preparation before the next weekend clash with MK Étanchéité of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

    “We know Heartland very well. They have always been  tough opponents but they won’t escape Warri with anything.We have lost two away games to Gabros and Wikki Tourists and we don’t want another stumble,” Etu told SportingLife.