Exactly 171 days to the 2015 presidential poll, candidates are yet to emerge, a development that means they won’t have ample time to mobilise across the nation and force voters into making hasty decisions, writes Sunday Oguntola
Who are those contesting the February 14, 2015 as presidential candidates? When are the parties conducting their primaries to elect their candidates for the make-or-mar poll? Who will be flying their flags?
These are the questions agitating the minds of political stakeholders and observers as the nation prepares for the crucial process of electing a president come 2015. To many observers, the absence of presidential aspirants, let alone candidates exactly 171 days to the poll is as worrisome as it is debilitating.
Our investigation revealed that many aspirants are playing hide-and-seek because of the pervasive uncertainty hanging in the political space. Many of them confided that they are watching the tides to know how to jump into the moving train.
“You know you have to be very careful these days. Fine, it’s good to be courageous and take risks but you have to realise that many things are yet to take shape. For example, the parties are not ready for primaries to pick their candidates. So, you have to watch first and know when to declare your intention,” an aspirant said last week.
Many aspirants, who spoke under strict anonymity, said they cannot declare their intentions because the presidential primaries are yet to hold. “It is when the primaries are conducted and the candidates start emerging that we would know where to align. Until then, our aspirations have to remain ambitions,” an aspirant in the South-South region stated.
Interestingly, the nation’s main political parties, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressives Congress (APC) appear to be sizing up each other before throwing out their presidential cards. While it is a taken fact that President Goodluck Jonathan will pick the ticket of the ruling PDP, the APC’s candidates are still slugging it out among themselves.
For now, private speculators allege that leading aspirants in the party include Gen Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd.), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Senator Bukola Saraki and Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso. Rumours abound that House of Representatives Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal, might also defect to the APC to contest the presidential race. There is also Mr. Sam Nda-Isaiah.
To observers, the uncertainty on who will contest the presidential race is unhealthy for the polity. For one, the party primaries are not likely to hold until October or November. That effectively means the presidential candidates will only emerge a little more than three months before the poll.
Political parties cannot commence electoral activities until notice is given, going by the Electoral Act 2006. The notice of election, according to the Act, can be given by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) “not later than 150 days before the day appointed for holding of an election”. This means primaries cannot hold until then.
This development, according to observer, will make it possible for voters to assess their candidates and make informed decisions. The Executive Director of Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre, Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, believes that the situation will lead to hurrying voters to make hasty decisions and affect good governance at the end. He said: “We have been lamenting because what we have now means that the electorate will be ambushed by unprepared candidates to pick them at all costs.”
He regretted that many candidates that will eventually emerge from the process without much time will be ill-prepared and ill-equipped for the onerous task of leading the nation. “We need quality leaders, especially at the presidency to really move this nation forward. But as it is now, that cannot happen. Those who will emerge will be unprepared because the parties are just not ready,” he stated.
He stressed that the political recruitment process in the nation leaves much to be desired and works against national development. “I believe the parties do not want to be democratic about it; they just want to force candidates down our throat and we will have no choice than to pick from the many unprepared lots.”
The absence of presidential candidates less than six months to the poll, he said, shows the lack of political maturity among parties. “They just want power at all costs without minding how it will affect us. At the end of the day, we are the losers for it,” the member of the just-concluded National Conference lamented.
The President of the Centre for Democracy and Social Economic Rights (CDSER), Popoola Ajayi, said every well-meaning Nigerian should be concerned and alarmed that less than six months to a presidential poll, candidates have not emerged. “In most democracies, you will start seeing the candidates one year to the polls. But this is not so here and it shows we are not ready to move forward at all. The undemocratic nature of our parties is partly responsible for it,” he stated.
He explained that since the candidates won’t emerge until three months before such a crucial election, they won’t have ample time to sell their programmes and candidacy. “Nigeria is a big, vast country. How can you criss-cross the length and breadth in just three months? How can they tell us what they offer if elected? How can we assess them and make informed decisions?”
Ajayi blamed parties for the absence of aspirants, saying many of them are scared of throwing themselves into the race for fear of wasting time and resources. “They know that the eventual candidates might be imposed. So why waste time and resources on mobilisation when they might not make it?” he explained.
A former President of Ijaw Youth Congress (IYC), Professor Kingsley Okoko, however disagreed that timing will not affect assessment of the candidates whenever they emerge. According to him: “It is strictly a party affair and quite frankly, I am not bothered. Whether it is a month or more is immaterial. When the candidates are ready, Nigerians will assess them based on their programmes.”
Raphael James, an activist, believes political parties are deliberately slowing down the process of emergence of their candidates to frustrate informed voters. “This is how voter’s apathy begins. When we don’t have enough time to assess their candidates and consider their agendas, many will simply shrug and refuse to vote. Those who will vote will do it based on a sense of duty, not because they think they are making the needed changes.”
Mindful of the Electoral Act provision that says candidates can only begin public campaigns only 90 days before the polls, Ajayi said parties should have concentrated on voters’ mobilisation and education to raise awareness. “The Act says you can’t campaign publicly but you can organise voter’s awareness and education seminar to market your programmes. That way, when the candidates emerge, the voters would have known your party and what you represent,” he explained.
Rafsanjani couldn’t agree more. “If you can’t campaign you can have internal mobilisation and even do door-to-door mobilisation if you really mean business. To me, I think the parties are taking voters for granted that they will choose from their lesser evils, instead of empowering them to make the best choices,” he stressed.
He believes that if the intention is to make the poll issue-based, parties should have started the process of educating voters while preparing for the election. The hurried scenario that will emerge from the chaos, he said, means voters will have no choice but to consider non-essentials such as religion and ethnicity among presidential candidates.
