After 12 hours of consultations on Saturday, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman Prof. Attahiru Jega shocked the world as he announced the shift of the much-anticipated general elections billed for February 14 and 28. But, to unsuspecting Nigerians, it was a postponement foretold. In this piece, Deputy Editor (News) ADENIYI ADESINA reviews the intrigues behind the action.
known to many, President Goodluck Jonathan knew that his second term aspiration will be a Herculean task. So, he began the race early, much earlier than his opponents. The rallies held nationwide by the body known as Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN) were nothing but campaigns. Beyond the rallies, the President had in his bag of tricks many other strategies.
Firstly, he empowered ex-militants from Niger Delta, his Southsouth geo-political zone, financially to serve as foot-soldiers to beat war drums or issue threats to any political traducer serving as a stumbling block to his re-election bid. The first phase of the plot worked because virtually all presidential aspirants in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) were technically shut out of the race under the guise of continuity.
With an automatic ticket secured, Jonathan’s greatest headache was how to beat the mega opposition – the All Progressives Congress (APC) – at the polls. His strategists knew it would not be an easy task but they were determined to try their luck even if it meant not playing by the rules. The President pulled the second string by changing his Service Chiefs for what a source described as a “crack political strategy.” The Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Air Marshal Alex Badeh was almost on his way out of the Air Force to vie for the governorship of Adamawa State when he was “miraculously” elevated from the Chief of Air Staff to the CDS. Air Marshall Badeh had a frosty relationship with former governor Murtala Nyako, even when Nyako, a retired Air Vice Marshall was in the PDP. Sources believe that the CDS played a prominent role in the impeachment of Nyako.
Lt. Gen. Kenneth Minimah is said to be an anointed choice of the the President’s wife, Dame Patience. Both of them are from Rivers State. A generation of officers was almost retired from the service to pave the way for Minimah’s emergence as the Chief of Army Staff (COAS). The Chief of Air Staff (CAS), Air Marshal Adesola Amosu, was the President’s pilot for some years before his appointment. He had been part of the ‘First family’. Though promoted on merit, the appointment of the Chief of Naval Staff (CNS), Vice Admiral Usman Jibrin was said to be a major political concession to Kogi State. This is often a campaign issue in the state.
The Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Suleiman Abba, is on a familiar terrain of political abracadabra having purportedly served as Aide-de-Camp (ADC) to ex-First Lady Mrs. Maryam Abacha. It was learnt that the Abachas and a former Chief Security Officer (CSO) were instrumental to Abba’s appointment. The IGP is obviously used to the tactics of crushing the opposition. This was why the police wasted no time in stripping Speaker Aminu Tambuwal of his security apparatchik.
A source said: “Whatever the role the Service Chiefs are playing today is a demonstration of loyalty to their benefactor. In April, last year, a terrible gaffe that embarrassed the nation was made by the military chiefs when the Defence Headquarters said they had rescued 100 of the abducted Chibok girls. Elsewhere, they would be heavily sanctioned for the misinformation, but as it were, nothing happened to them. The President, who is the Commander-in-Chief (C-in-C), did not see it as an international embarrassment. The prosecution of the war against the insurgents has been criticised by the international community as lacklustre, with many countries wondering what has become of our military that was well respected in times past. Again, the C-in-C is satisfied with the reports filed by his Service Chiefs.
It is obvious that the military is politicised and the Service Chiefs have made up their minds to do only the bidding of the President. Jonathan had perfected his plans from the beginning and he succeeded in working to the answer, a former Commissioner of Police in Lagos State, Abubakar Tsav, said.
“The shift in polls’ dates is sad and most unfortunate indeed. The Service Chiefs attended the Council of State meeting. Why did they not raise this issue there? I smell a rat. We no longer have a military, but traders, business and market men,” he added.
The interest of Service/Security Chiefs in the polls
Some of the Service Chiefs are neck-deep in politics of survival . A victory for Jonathan will guarantee them more years in service. In fact, the wife of a security chief recently went to a state for empowerment programme to boost the re-election campaign of the President. If Jonathan loses, Buhari, a no-nonsense Army General, will become the nation’s President and he will certainly shake-up the military in such a manner that professionalism will be restored. There might also be auditing of the hardware and evaluation of the campaign against insurgency. Some of the Service Chiefs were also said to be angry following incessant criticisms of the military approach to Boko Haram insurgency. At a stage, the DHQ issued a statement criticising Buhari’s alleged remarks against the military. They do not want a C-in-C with a mindset to flush them out.
A source said: “The Service Chiefs are afraid of their shadows. The manner in which the Army handled the Buhari Certificate issue showed some bias and politicisation which is an abuse of military ethics. So, they have a lot to hide. Even if they escape Buhari’s axe, they are already on the wrong side of history. No team of Service Chiefs had recorded highest number of mutinies as the present crop.”
How Jega succumbed to
pressure
Although Jega battled spiritedly on Saturday to deny being under pressure to reschedule the elections to March 28 and April 11, his visible loss of weight and fatigue at the press conference in INEC Media Office pointed to some trauma for him. For many months, the forces behind polls’ postponement had tried in vain to force Jega to fall in line. To the forces, except Jega is the same page with them, the prospect of the President winning the election is remote. The electoral body must therefore be infiltrated. Besides infiltrating the rank and file of INEC, many groups, especially Southern Nigeria Peoples Assembly, were sponsored to put Jega on the edge on every key decision vital to the conduct of the polls. At a point, offer was made to some INEC National Commissioners to undercut Jega with the hope that any of them can succeed the political scientist as chairman. The first shock for Jega was the aborted plan by INEC to create additional 30,000 polling units, a development which was beclouded by ethno-religious politics. Still undone, the Presidency took advantage of Inter-Agency Committee on Election Security (comprising INEC and security agencies) to understudy the lapses in the commission’s preparations. The peaked about three weeks ago, when National Security Adviser (NSA) Sambo Dasuki, a retired colonel, invited Jega for an “appraisal session” on the botched February polls. At the session, the NSA cross checked intelligence report on the status of PVCs distribution nationwide and obtained a table on these from Jega. He was said to have also spoken on security challenges in the Northeast, especially Adamawa, Borno, Yobe and Gombe states and wondered if the elections should not be postponed for this reason. Jega was said to have made it clear that he could not tell Nigerians that the polls are shifted because of the security situation in the Northeast. The meeting ended without any inkling that the NSA was going to Chatham House, London, United Kingdom (UK) the following day.
The source added: “A bewildered Jega woke up to hear Dasuki dropping a hint on likely polls’ postponement because of logistics challenges over the distribution of PVCs and Card Readers. He could not believe it that Dasuki spoke less about security threats in the Northeast which will make the conduct of the poll impossible.
“The clever shifting of blame on INEC angered Jega and he felt betrayed by the NSA. He also felt that Dasuki deliberately put INEC on the spot to incur the wrath of Nigerians and the international community.
“So, if you saw Jega hammering on INEC’s readiness for the poll, it was a deliberate ploy to pay the NSA back in his own coin and prove to the world that only the security agencies were not willing to allow the poll to hold.”
Undeterred, the Service Chiefs hatched another plot, this time around, to put Jega in a cul-de-sac. The Service Chiefs now wrote individually to the NSA that they cannot guarantee security for the general elections. The aggregate of their position was contained in a letter the NSA wrote to Jega on Wednesday, the eve of the Council of State meeting.
The President, in his concluding remarks, was said to have told Jega not to disregard the advice of the security chiefs who are trained in intelligence. Jega possibly saw this as a subtle threat and had to succumb to the blackmail.
What next after polls’ shift?
Virtually, every political analyst believes the attribution of polls’ shift to security challenges in the Northeast was a smokescreen. In fact, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), described the development as “delay tactics.” The Director of Media of the PDP Presidential Campaign Organisation, Femi Fani-Kayode, said the shift was “in the interest of deepening democracy and in national interest.”
The APC National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun said: “This is clearly a major setback for Nigerian democracy. We must not fall into this obvious trap. Change we must. They can only delay it; no one can stop it.”
To underscore the ill-motive behind the shift, some PDP governors had relocated to Abuja on Saturday to strategise on what to do if violence trailed the announcement by Jega.
For postponing the polls, some hawks and military top brass had anticipated a nationwide violence which they can use to crackdown on the opposition figures. It was curious that before Jega announced the shift, troops were massively deployed in some key state capitals and towns in the North and Southwest without any prompting. Those behind the deployment acted on false intelligence interpretation. This was why Gen Buhari, on Sunday, warned Nigerians against playing into the hands of the presidency and the PDP.
He said: “Our country is going through a difficult time in the hands of terrorists. Any act of violence can only complicate the security challenges in the country and provide justification to those who would want to exploit every situation to frustrate the democratic process in the face of certain defeat at the polls.”
Definitely, the presidency and the PDP would have to re-strategise on other options to frustrate the opposition. Checks have confirmed the likelihood of using the six-week extension window to lay legal landmines for Gen Buhari on the over-blown certificate drama and alleged perjury. Already, there are four, mostly induced, cases against the APC flag bearer in court. There were fears that a pliant judge might be used to disqualify him. The plot is to subject the retired General to the rigours of legal hurdles up to the Supreme Court to dampen his spirit. The legal matters might not be disposed of till the last minutes. Some hawks in the PDP are after his outright disqualification so that Jonathan and 13 other candidates can slog it out at the polls.
Another option is the alleged plot to create a constitutional crisis to pave the way for a political stalemate which will lead to another contraption like an Interim National Government (ING). Gen Buhari alluded to this in his reaction to the postponement on Sunday when he said: “We don’t know the type of government they want to bring, whether a military government or a civilian government. But an elected government must be in place 30 days before May 29.”
A fourth plot borders on the sack of Jega, the National Commissioners and Resident Electoral Commissioners if they ‘fail’ again in the distribution of PVCs. On Saturday, the INEC chairman had assured anxious journalists that he would conduct the general election. He spoke innocently, oblivious of the plot to sack him. The only intelligence available to Jega is about how one of his discredited predecessors had been serving as a consultant to the PDP. Those being positioned for his job are: Prof. Femi Mimiko (a brother of the Governor of Ondo State who just completed his tenure at the Adekunle Ajasin University); INEC National Commissioner (Operations), Prof. Nuru Yakubu, a former INEC chairman, Prof. Maurice Iwu, and a former National Commissioner of INEC, Mr. Victor Chukwuani.
A highly-placed source, who spoke in confidence, said: “These forces are determined to ease Jega out by citing shoddy preparation, poor distribution of PVCs, some technical incompetence and other sundry issues.
“They have been shopping for candidates to replace Jega if they could wield influence to allow the polls to hold in June or if they could frustrate Jega to pave the way for a new hand to manage INEC during the general elections.”
Notwithstanding the ongoing intrigues, the postponement will assist INEC to tidy up a few things before the poll.
Jega said: As for us in INEC, we’ll endeavour to use the period of the extension to keep on perfecting our systems and processes for conducting the best elections in Nigeria’s history. In particular, we believe that we would resolve all outstanding issues related to non-collection of PVCs, which agitate the minds of many Nigerians.”
Will Jega be third time lucky?
The nation seems to have accepted the postponement since INEC acted within the laws. But will the chairman of the commission, Jega, be third time lucky? Twice in his career as INEC chairman, he had postponed general elections using his integrity as an excuse. If Jega falters again on March 28, he will be consigned to the dark side of history.
