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Tag: prognosis

  • Osun: The new political prognosis

    The tone for this piece was set last Wednesday as an old school mate of mine from Anambra State sought my views on the Osun State governorship election “in the light of what happened in Ekiti”. He nearly provoked me as he asked for my “honest opinion”. I retorted, “Had I ever given you a dishonest opinion.” He merely smiled in response, fixing his gaze on me nonetheless, prodding for an analysis of the chances of the two parties.

    As I told quite a number of others who asked me a similar question, no two political situations are ever the same. The Ekiti election was mainly between Ayo Fayose and Kayode Fayemi. Osun’s will be fought by Rauf Aregbesola and Iyiola Omisore. It is my view that the days of strong adherence to political parties are gone. It was so with the parties of the First and Second Republic and, at least in the West, with the Alliance for Democracy in 1999. The situation has since changed for reasons beyond the scope of this space.

    Although Ekiti and Osun are neighbouring states, the sociological make-up are quite different. Osun is certainly more diverse than Ekiti and it is therefore easier to mobilise the Ekiti with one slogan than it would be in Osun.

    Then, the candidates. Omisore is not quite a Fayose. Attempting to ape the Ekiti political warlord merely made the Ife man look pathetic. It was so  unnatural. It would be more difficult for any man to mount the soap box in Ilesa hoping to win over the Ijesa with two ears of roast corn in his hands than it was for Fayose. There are issues, too. Who killed Bola Ige is an issue in Ijesa land that shares the same senatorial district with Ile-Ife.

    Mr. Omisore flaunts some credentials. He had been a deputy governor in the state. It does not matter if it remains a subject of dispute whether he was impeached or resigned. He later went to the Senate and could claim some “distinguished” representation on account of serving as chairman of the Appropriation Committee.

    Like Fayose, he has access to the hugely important federal might and budget. The federal government controls the security apparatus and the electoral commission itself is a federal executive body. Money cannot be a problem. The federal government and the party in control are desperate to root out the opposition from the West with a view to boosting its chances at the polls next year.

    However, Aregbesola is an unconventional politician, a doughty fighter and a a tested tactician. In the short period of his involvement in Osun’s political milieu, he has shown such dexterity that is uncommon. In 2011, he was the only governor who could rouse his people to vote for a weak Action Congress of Nigeria presidential platform, in addition to winning all the federal and state legislative seats. The scheme had failed even in Lagos State. He is a politician and has campaigned so vigorously that nothing was left to chance.

    In terms of campaign style, he stood head and shoulders above the PDP candidate. In performance, he has enough to show and, in terms of perception, he is believed to have provided the now famous or infamous stomach infrastructure. The emergence of Mr. Omisore hurt even his party. Other aspirants are either out or are reluctantly trudging along. It could be asked, where are former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola and his deputy, Erelu Olusola Obada today? Are they with Omisore? Has a new political factor emerged in Ede to rival pioneer Governor Adeleke? In Okuku, could the Oyinlola influence be dismissed? In Igbomina land, is Chief Akande no longer relevant?

    In Ikire, Alhaji Fatai Akinbade would probably have been a factor had he won the ticket of a contending party. But, in Osun, the Labour Party is not any stronger than it is in Ekiti. The party would be lucky to rake in as many votes as Hon. Bamidele.

    The outlook appears bright for Aregbesola. The man knows that he carries a heavy burden- on his lean shoulders is laid the fortunes of the All Progressives Party in the march to 2015. If he wins, he brings the party back into reckoning and inflates an ego deflated by the results from Ekiti. But, should he lose, the PDP would once again have shown that its control of the national political machinery cannot be matched by any other party.

    In a way, therefore, the Osun election is about the destiny of Nigeria. Those who believe that the PDP has failed Nigeria would be looking in the direction of APC to show that an alliance between the mainstream political forces of the far North and the West could save the country. Others would believe that a failure of the opposition in the region, following the installation of Labour PDP in Ondo and Fayose PDP in Ekiti signals a new national political equation.

    If I were permitted a vote, my heart and head are agreed that Aregbesola is the true way to success and progress.

  • Treatment for low back pain

    The treatment of low back pain very much depends on the precise cause. Moreover, each patient must be individually evaluated and managed in the context of the underlying background health status and activity level.

    As has been highlighted by research presented at the national meeting of the American College of Rheumatology, a very important aspect of the individual evaluation is the patient’s own perception of their particular situation. British researchers found that those who believed that their symptoms had serious consequences on their lives and that they had, or treatments had, little control over their symptoms were more likely to have a poor outcome. This research points out to physicians the importance of addressing the concerns and perceptions that patients have about their condition during the initial evaluations.

    Finally, it should be noted that the conditions listed above are intended for general review. There are many other causes of back pain, including upper back pain, that have not been discussed.

    What is the outlook (prognosis) for low back pain?

    The outlook for low back pain absolutely depends on its precise cause. For example, acute strain injuries generally heal entirely with minimal treatment.

    On the other hand, bony abnormalities that are irritating the spinal cord can require significant surgical repair and the outlook depends on the surgical result. Long-term optimal results often involve exercise rehabilitation programs that can involve physical therapists.

     

  • Niger State 2015: a prognosis

    Niger State 2015: a prognosis

    All politics, as the Americans would say, is, in the end, local. Meaning, politics, in the end, is about simple everyday mundane issues rather than about big and intangible ideas.

    In recent times undoubtedly big and not so tangible issues such as the national budget, the privatisation of electric power, crises of internal party democracy, Election ’15 and, only last week, the national conference, sovereign or otherwise, have dominated our politics.

    However, in the last two weeks this column has avoided these somewhat big and not so tangible issues and dwelt on the more mundane issue of traditional rule, first in my home town, Bida, and then in Suleja, one of the major towns in my home state, Niger. This was for the good reason that each of the emirates celebrated an important milestone for the No. 1 Citizen of its emirate, both of which have been prominent in the history of the country.

    As the reader can see from the title of this piece, I have decided to remain local this week once more and briefly discuss the politics of the 2015 governorship election of my state, whose slogan is “Power State”, not, as is widely misunderstood, on account of the fact that it has produced two military heads of state, an Air Force chief and many generals, but because it contains all the hydroelectric power stations in the country.

    Staying local one more time this week was not easy in the face of the surprise announcement during his October 1 Independence Day speech by President Goodluck Jonathan that he will soon order a national conference and the mixed reactions the announcement provoked.

    Niger State may not be the bellwether of Nigeria’s politics, but as one of only three states in the country to have produced two or more heads of state – the other two being Kano and Ogun – not to talk of its many prominent generals and topnotch politicians like Professor Jerry Gana, its politics deserves more than a passing public interest.

    In its edition of May 21, Daily Trust carried a full page advert signed by Bala Yakubu Gawu, in which the author concluded that the man to beat in the state’s governorship elections, in 2015, is its Deputy Governor, Honourable Ahmed Musa Ibeto. Ibeto, who is from the Kontagora senatorial zone of the state, was once the state’s chief of protocol. He was also a member of the House of Representatives.

    By means fair or foul, the country’s ruling parties – from the Northern Peoples’ Congress (NPC) in the First Republic, through the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) in the Second Republic, to the Peoples’ Democratic Party in the current dispensation – have always won elections in the state.

    Going by the ruling PDP’s zoning arrangement at the state level it will be the turn of the Kontagora zone, aka Zone C, to produce the next governor. Zone A (Bida) has had its turn between 1999 and 2007 while Zone B (Minna) will come to the end of its two four-year terms in 2015.

    The advert in question discussed only the possible candidates for the PDP governorship ticket from Zone C. Apart from Ibeto the others mentioned in the advert were Muazu Mohammed Bawa, the state’s commissioner of Finance, Abubakar Sani Bello (Habu), former commissioner of Commerce and son of retired Colonel Sani Bello and son-in-law of former head of state, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, Aminu Yusuf, the secretary of the state’s PDP and Mustapha Bello, former minister of Commerce, younger brother of Col Bello and current Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Investment Promotion Council.

    Conspicuously missing from Gawu’s list were Ibrahim Ahmed Matani, a former head of service and currently commissioner of Agriculture, three time senator, former DIG Nuhu Aliyu and Abubakar Sa’idu, chairman of Wushishi Local government and son-in-law of state’s governor, Dr Muazu Babangida Aliyu. Even more conspicuously missing was Mohammed, first son of General Ibrahim Babangida, who seems to have since quietly dropped out of the race possibly because, though his ancestral home is Wushishi, his family has always been identified with Minna.

    The trouble with Gawu’s advert was that it seemed too much of a sponsored promotion for Ibeto. First, the advert conveniently ignored an undertaking Ibeto reportedly gave that the price for his two-term deputy governorship under Dr Aliyu was his forfeiture of his governorship ambition. Second, experience for experience in public service and politics he is no match for Engineer Mustapha Bello and Senator Nuhu Aliyu. Third, if it comes to connections at high places, an element which seems to have become central to winning elections in Nigeria, he is no match for Bello Jr., who, apart from his father-in-law, can count on his father’s childhood friends, classmates and military colleagues like Generals Babangida and Gado Nasko, former FCT minister, for support. Fourth, as if to create even more trouble for Ibeto and his party, Bello Jr. defected to the CPC before the APC merger, following his falling out a long time ago with the state governor over issues of policy.

    Another trouble with Gawu’s advert apart from those it inexplicably left out was that it assumed Niger State, being historically an Establishment state, would be PDP’s to lose in 2015. This assumption ignores the fact that for years now Kontagora has become an opposition territory. If, as the Americans say, politics, in the end, is all local, whoever wins PDP’s governorship ticket is not likely to win Zone C for the party. Although in Nigeria, General Olusegun Obasanjo has shown back in 1998 that you don’t have to have home support to win an election, the lack of a home support is a serious minus for any politician. This was obviously why, in his second term bid in 2003, the general made sure by all means that his party swept his native Southwest zone.

    The probability that Kontagora will remain opposition territory has reportedly prompted the party’s kingpins of the state’s origin in Abuja, notably Professor Jerry Gana, to canvass the option of making the party’s governorship ticket a free-for-all. This would be patently unfair to Kontagora. But whether the PDP primaries becomes a free-for-all or not, the new opposition party, the All Progressives’ Congress (APC), stands a good chance of winning the governorship election in the state if it gives its ticket to a plausible candidate from Zone C.

    Among those said to be gunning for the ticket for now are Ibrahim Musa, the zone’s senator, Ibrahim Bako Shettima from Bida, the Congress for Progressive Change’s (CPC’s) governorship candidate in the 2011 elections David Umaru from Minna, the All Nigeria Peoples Party’s governorship candidate in 2007 and 2011, and Bello Jr. from Kontagora.

    Because Zones A and B have had their turn in governing the state, Bello Jr. seems APC’s best chance of beating PDP in the state, especially if anyone from outside Kontagora picks PDP’s ticket and if Bello Jr. picks his running mate from Bida, the state’s biggest senatorial zone.

    The ruling party’s chances of losing the state is hardly helped by the fact that its caucus seems to be in a predicament over who to back for the party’s ticket between Ibeto, Mustapha Bello and Abubakar Saidu, the chairman of Wushishi Local Government and the governor’s son-in-law who also has the support of the governor’s younger brother, Mohammed Aliyu, the managing director of Niger State Development Company, reportedly the man with the greatest influence over the Chief Servant’s policies and programmes.

    Chances are the next governor of Niger State may be Abubakar Sani Bello.

     

    FEEDBACK

    Last week I promised I will publish two rather lengthy but thoughtful reactions to my last two columns. I am sorry I am able to publish only the shorter one this week for lack of space. I shall publish the other one next week, God willing.

    Sir,

    I enjoyed your tribute to the Etsu Nupe in “Ten Years of the 13th Etsu Nupe” published in the Daily Trust of 18th September, 2013. However, I disagree with your view that “once Bida fell (to British forces), the collapse of the caliphate all the way to Sokoto proved more or less a piece of cake. . . “

    No doubt, the British West African Frontier Force faced a gallant enemy in their two-day battle to capture Bida in January 1897, suffering 17 wounded and 8 dead in the process. Yet, the subsequent conquest of the caliphate did not come any easier for the British, who for instance, lost 14 soldiers in a single encounter with forces loyal to the Emir of Kontagora on Helo Island in the River Niger in October 1898.

    At the Battle of Yola in September 1901, the British suffered 2 dead and 41 wounded, while at the Caliph’s last stand in Burmi in present Gombe State, British casualties amounted to 2 dead and 54 wounded (First Battle of Burmi, April 1903) and 103 dead and wounded (Second Battle of Burmi, July 1903). Interestingly, the defeated Emir Abubakar of Bida fought gallantly in Burmi, alongside Caliph Attahiru and Emir Ahmadu of Misau, and once again, he managed to escape capture by the victorious British forces.

    In short, if the mighty British Empire suffered heavy casualties and took six years to achieve the conquest of the Sokoto Caliphate, that conquest cannot be described “as a piece of cake” by any standard.

    For more on the military battles of the British conquest of the Sokoto Caliphate, readers are referred to the book “War on the Savannah” by Risko Marjomaa, published by the Finnish Academy of Science and Letters, Helsinki (1998).

    Dr. Nura H. Alkali

     

  • Amaechi’s political prognosis on Nigerians

    Amaechi’s political prognosis on Nigerians

    A  few weeks ago, the Governor of Rivers State, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, was reported by some newspapers as saying that the objective social and economic conditions in Nigeria called for a change, but that Nigerians were too timid to bring about such a change by directly challenging their leaders. Coming from such a highly placed public official, a state governor, his comments must be regarded as surprising and strange. He did not specifically call for a violent change, but came quite close to it. Many will be disposed to consider his comments as hypocritical, self-serving, and a gratuitous insult to his people, the same people who, through years of personal sacrifice, brought him to power after decades of military rule in Nigeria. The same views regarding possible future violent political change in Nigeria had been expressed earlier on by the respected Catholic Bishop of Sokoto, Matthew Kukah, who was reported as saying that a violent change was not possible in Nigeria. Well, the Catholic Church has not been known to be in support of violent change, except when it serves its interest. In general, it has always been in support of the Establishment.

    The conclusions reached by the two prominent figures raised some eye brows in both official and unofficial circles. This paper actually wrote an editorial in support of Governor Amaechi’s comments that Nigerians were too timid to force a change in the country. But I think Governor Amaechi missed the point by his explicit dismissal of Nigerians as being too timid to organise themselves in revolt against the authorities. There is no basis for his comments. A revolution occurs only when the objective conditions warrant it. That is not yet the case in Nigeria. There are far too many cultural constraints that would make a violent change difficult. The nation and its people are too badly divided.

    Now, I have never met Governor Amaechi, but my impression of him, drawn from his frequent press comments, is that of a youthful, energetic, and thoughtful leader eager for a change in the country, precisely what the nation is in dire need of. He may be having some political problems in his state and with his party, the PDP. But one must share his concerns about the lack of progress in the appalling social and economic conditions of the poor in Nigeria. Obviously his observation about Nigerians being a timid lot, though erroneous, came from the heart and one must respect him for his concerns.

    However, there is no historical basis for Governor Amaechi’s conclusion that Nigerians are too timid to force a change in the country. They will do so if the objective conditions exist. But that is not quite the case now. Both before and after Nigeria’s independence, the Nigerian public, particularly the poor, played a crucial role in Nigeria’s political history, challenging the authorities whenever there is a compelling reason to do so. And it is only the people who can make that judgment, not their leaders inciting them to do so. They will only resort to a rebellion if they are united about it and consider it to be in their interest to do so. It is unlikely that they can be goaded into it.

    Nigeria’s political history shows that, at various times, the Nigerian people were in open rebellion against British colonial rule in Nigeria and their own post independence governments, both civilian and military. Examples of this include the violent protests at the coal mines in Enugu, the riots in Abeokuta, led by Mrs. Ransome Kuti, over the introduction of direct taxation, and the 1946 Labour strike in Lagos that virtually paralysed the colonial government. The Nigerian people participated fully in the independence movement under the leadership of the various political parties and organisations. It was the support of the masses that made Nigeria’s independence from British colonial rule possible. Without their active support the struggle against foreign domination would have been more difficult.

    After independence and at crucial moments the Nigerian people took their destiny into their hands by challenging the excesses of both civilian and military rule in Nigeria. One may recall the Agbekoya resistance movement in the Old Western Region against the unpopular Akintola government foisted on the people by the Balewa federal government. The Agbekoya movement made the state ungovernable and virtually paralysed the unpopular Akintola government. During the long period of military rule, determined resistance from the people made our military rulers very uncomfortable. They knew they did not enjoy the support of the people. More recently, under civilian rule, the federal authorities had to back down on the issue of fuel subsidy, following mass protests and demonstrations in Lagos and some other state capitals. Had the Jonathan PDP not given way on this issue it would have faced the danger of an open insurrection. So, time and again, the Nigerian masses have shown great courage in challenging the establishment where they are forced into doing so by being pushed to the wall.

    However, it should be admitted that in the context of Nigeria’s tribal politics, it can be quite difficult to mobilise the people for the purpose of challenging the authorities and forcing a change in the country. For this to happen, two things are necessary. First, there must be shared values among the various Nigerian tribes on governance and the limits of government. This is not the case now. The massive public corruption in Nigeria, the source of much public irritation, has been tribalised and cannot, therefore, be addressed squarely by mobilising the people against it. Corrupt public officials often get away with it because they know they can count on the support of their own people. Though a potent force, corruption is unlikely to be the source of violent change in Nigeria.

    The second condition for forcing a change is that this must be led by a cohesive and detribalised middle class among which there are also shared values. Again, this is not the case in Nigeria. The economic reform programme of the late 80s set the emerging middle class in Nigeria back by several decades. Their incomes and status fell dramatically to the extent that, today, there are really only two classes in Nigeria, the rich and the poor. It worsened the social and economic conditions of the poor, even endangering their very existence. For them, their survival is the first order. After all, the poor cling even more tenaciously to life than the rich and will not put themselves in harm’s way by resorting to violence, the outcome of which is by no means certain. In the event of a violent revolution, the poor will suffer even more than the rich.

    No one can be absolutely certain that a violent change will not occur in Nigeria in the light of the appalling social and economic conditions in which the vast majority of its various peoples live. In the last few years, Nigeria’s economic growth rate has been impressive, showing an annual average of 7 per cent. But there has been very little trickle down effect of this significant growth in its GDP. The economic conditions of the people have worsened. This is why it is imperative for the various authorities in Nigeria to take necessary economic measures to avert it. We already have in various parts of the country kidnappings, assassinations, violent crimes and insurrections, such as those of Boko Haram, MEND, MASSOB, and others, that openly challenge the legitimacy and moral authority of the government and the viability of the nation. Cumulatively, all these may lead to violent protests and mass demonstrations that can spiral easily into a mass revolt.

    But no one can predict with any degree of certainty when this dire security situation might lead to a direct revolution, as most revolutions are triggered off rather suddenly and at a time least expected. In fact, in most cases revolutions occur just when the economic conditions of the people, begin to show some improvement; hardly ever before. The ‘Arab Spring’ that is currently sweeping through the Arab world is sufficient confirmation of this. It was when economic conditions began to improve in most of the Arab countries that the people went into a rebellion against their governments.