Telecom sector regulator, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) yesterday said it has hired a consulting firm, PricewaterHouseCoopers (PwC), to conduct an independent, data-driven study on the level of competition in the nation’s telecom sector.
This is coming about 13 years after such a study was conducted and subsequent approval of a 50per cent tariff adjustment to mobile network operators (MNOs) by the regulator last year.
Head, Competition and Tariff at the NCC, Mrs Omotayo Mohammed, in her opening remarks at the Stakeholders’ Forum on the Study on the Level of Competition in the Nigerian Telecom Industry held at Ikeja Sheraton Hotel, Lagos, yesterday, noted that the telecom market has evolved significantly over the past years.
According to her, revenue models have shifted, investment patterns have changed, and new forms of market interaction have emerged. “We are witnessing rapid technological change, evolving consumer expectations and usage patterns, rising investment costs, and heightened competitive pressures.
Concurrently, concerns around barriers to entry, market concentration, sustainability of smaller players, and quality of service continue to warrant careful consideration. These dynamics highlight the importance of continuous validation of competition policy assumptions against current market evidence,” she said.
She underscored the need for commitment to a sector that has become the backbone of the nation’s digital economy, contributing about 9.1per cent to national GDP as at Q3 2025. “The telecommunications sector serves as a critical enabler of growth, inclusion, innovation and service delivery across all sectors of the economy,” Mrs Mohammed said.
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According to her, competition is the engine that drives innovation, affordability, and consumer choice.
“But competition must also be fair, effective, and sustainable. Our task as a regulator is to strike the right balance, one that protects consumers, rewards efficiency and investment, and keeps the market open to new ideas and new entrants.
“The last comprehensive, industry-wide competition study undertaken by the Commission was concluded in 2013. A few targeted, bespoke studies have since been conducted across specific services and market segments such as Mobile Voice Termination Rate 2018 and Mobile Voice International Termination Rate 2022.
“However, developments in technology, market structure, and consumer behavior now necessitate a holistic reassessment of competition across the telecommunications value chain,” she said.
She said PwC brings to this assignment deep expertise in competition economics, market assessment, and regulatory advisory with a strong record track record of delivering robust and credible assessments for regulators across multiple jurisdictions. The engagement reflects the Commission’s emphasis on methodological rigour, analytical independence, and alignment with international best practice in competition and economic analysis.
According to her, the study is not about naming winners or losers. It is about understanding market dynamics as they truly are, across infrastructure, services, pricing, and emerging segments, identifying any structural or behavioural concerns.
“The Commission remains committed to its responsibility to continuously provide a conducive environment and level playing field for the effective interplay of factors that would engender a sustained market development and growth, while ensuring the provision of qualitative and efficient telecommunication services to the consumers.
To achieve this, the study has been designed to capture both supply-side and demand-side dimensions of the market. On the supply side, it will assess market structure, levels of concentration, pricing behaviour, access to essential facilities, barriers to entry and expansion, and the intensity of competitive rivalry. On the demand side, it will examine consumer usage patterns, switching behaviour, affordability, service quality, and the extent to which consumers are able to exercise informed choice.
Mrs Mohammed said the robustness of the study’s outcomes will depend significantly on the quality of the data that underpins the analysis. I therefore wish to emphasize the importance of timely, accurate, and complete submission of information by all service providers and relevant stakeholders when the data-gathering questionnaires are administered.
Data submission in this context is not a procedural formality. It is a regulatory imperative. Incomplete, inconsistent, or delayed responses constrain analytical reliability and could affect the appropriateness of any regulatory measures that follow.
She said the study is intended to be diagnostic in nature. It is not designed to pre-judge outcomes or target specific licencees. Rather, it is intended to strengthen regulatory certainty and ensure that competition-related interventions are evidence-led, proportionate, and transparent.
Also speaking on the occasion, Director, Strategy, PwC Network, Akolawole Odunlami, said the global telecom sector is projected to reach approximately $1.3 trillion by 2028. Post-pandemic, the sector has regained momentum, but growth has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels. Previously, the sector grew at about four per cent year-on-year; today, global growth is between two and three per cent, adding that many challenges affecting the sector are not limited to Nigeria—they are global.
Odunlami said in sub-Saharan Africa, while the subscriber base continues to grow, most operators are experiencing declining average revenue per user (ARPU).
“Another significant trend is changing consumer behavior. Today’s consumers are digital-first. They no longer simply purchase connectivity—they seek experiences powered by connectivity.
“For consumers, it’s not just about buying data; it’s about self-service applications, replacing physical experiences with digital ones. Data is the enabler of these experiences. Similarly, the rapid growth of entertainment and social media positions connectivity as a social access point to the world.
“Globally, telecommunications operators are rethinking their business models. Success is no longer defined solely by data offerings but by integrating lifestyle services into the data experience. Through platforms, users can now access health services, utilities, and even fintech solutions. Over-the-top (OTT) services—such as WhatsApp and Teams—illustrate how traditional voice and messaging services are shifting, with data serving as the backbone. Revenue is moving from traditional models to OTT services.
“Consumer communication is now experience-driven. For instance, I can call a team member anywhere in the world using Teams—data enables the experience, not just the call. Globally, some mobile network operators (MNOs) have integrated lifestyle services into their apps, allowing users to pay for utilities, access medical services, and engage with fintech offerings. Today’s 21st-century consumer demands connectivity that powers these experiences,” he said.
Another trend is the rollout of 5G and, eventually, 6G. By 2028, 5G is projected to account for 64per cent of global connectivity. However, adoption in Nigeria and sub-Saharan Africa remains constrained due to infrastructure limitations, low investment in R&D, and slow uptake of 5G-enabled devices. Short- to medium-term adoption in sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 14–17per cent, far below the global average. Government investment in infrastructure and R&D is crucial to accelerate this growth.
Competition in the sector is also evolving. Beyond new entrants, innovative business models and connectivity options are reshaping the market. Globally, for example, AI has driven significant economic growth, with the U.S. seeing 90per cent of first-half 2025 growth attributed to AI investments in hyperscale data centers. In Nigeria, while more data centers are emerging, investment in AI-capable infrastructure remains limited. A conducive regulatory environment is essential to support such advancements.
The Nigerian telecommunications sector has evolved significantly between 2000 and 2025. Growth was explosive from 2000 to 2005, scaled between 2005 and 2015, and slowed between 2015 and 2023 due to market maturity and economic factors like the MDC rebasing. Sector studies conducted by the NCC have also evolved: the 2015 study focused on industry-wide competition, while more recent studies target specific segments, such as co-location, infrastructure, and voice and data.
Market dominance can arise from four factors: innovation, investment, go-to-market strategy, or anti-competitive practices. Regulatory focus is on ensuring that leadership gained through anti-competitive practices does not undermine the market. Sustainable market leadership is encouraged when achieved through innovation, superior investment, and effective market strategies.
“The current study by NCC and PwC is diagnostic and data-driven, aiming to Assess market dynamics, structure, concentration, and operator behavior; Identify significant market power and its impact on competition; and Enhance regulatory oversight and review existing frameworks.
“Others are promote fair competition and provide evidence-based recommendations to foster innovation and service quality; and develop the capacity of the regulator to continuously assess competition and make informed decisions,” he said.
He said the scope includes independent, evidence-based assessment of market structure, pricing, entry and expansion barriers, consumer behavior, and service quality. Accurate, timely, and complete data submission from stakeholders is critical. Interviews, both virtual and in-person, will follow initial data collection to ensure comprehensive engagement.
