With a clear majority in the Senate process of selecting the next Senate President should have been a walk in the party for the All Progressives Congress (APC). But sundry factors and the ambitions of aspirants who have shown interest in the job mean that choosing David Mark’s successor would not just be a simple case of arithmetic. In this report, Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu, Assistant Editor, Remi Adelowo and Sunday Oguntola report on the intrigues and factors working for and against the leading contenders.
The dilemma of power balance in the soon-to-be inaugurated National Assembly is proving to be a delicate puzzle that must be unraveled with care. The situation is especially dicey in the Senate where the APC is battling to ensure that the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) doesn’t claim the prize by default.
With APC’s majority of 60 against PDP’s 49 members in the Red Chamber, election of Nigeria’s next Senate President would appear easy and straightforward.
Instead it has become a very tricky assignment primarily because of the current political equation and the standing complexities of National Assembly politics.
Some of the puzzles are the existing zoning policy which would have sought to resolve the balance on the basis of the traditional Nigerian tripod and the failure of the South-East zone to elect a single senator on the ticket of APC, which, according to some political analysts, would have made power sharing in this dispensation easier.
The argument is that if the South-East had elected a ranking senator on the platform of APC, the search for the next Senate President, the number three citizen, would have become easier for the party as it would have been narrowed to such a senator so as to balance the power sharing arrangement, since the North-West and the South-West had produced the President and Vice-President respectively.
As it is, the search, according to reports, has been shifted to the North-Central and the North-East zones, where some historical realities have made the task even more complex and intriguing. Our investigation, for example, shows that the North-East geo-political zone, which has since 1999 been in the opposition and has therefore never produced a Senate President is insisting that the zone should be compensated with the position of Senate President and made to feel be part of the Nigerian project. Their demand, according to some political stakeholders, “is made more persuasive both by the current devastation of the zone by the Boko Haram insurgency and by the fact that the zone delivered the second largest number of votes to APC.”
So, today, though many influential APC senators-elect are interested in the plum position, it seems the search has been narrowed to three leading contenders from the North-East and North-Central geo-political zones.
They include Senator George Akume, a former governor of Benue State in the North-Central zone, Senator Bukola Saraki, a former governor of Kwara State also from North-Central and Senator Ahmed Ibrahim Lawan from Yobe State in the North-East zone, who has been in the National Assembly since 1999, first in the Green Chamber before moving over to the Red Chamber in 2007.
These frontline runners are, however, not the only contenders from the two zones. From the North-East zone, for example, the likes of former governor of Gombe State, Danjuma Goje; Ali Ndume from Borno State and Binta Garba Masi from Adamawa State are also in the race.
Ahmed Ibrahim Lawan
Senator Ahmed Ibrahim Lawan, representing Yobe North constituency has been at the National Assembly since 1999. He is probably the most experienced lawmaker amongst all the current contenders to the position of Senate President.
First elected into the House of Representatives in 1999, he was re-elected in 2003 and he served in that capacity up till 2007. In 2007, he again returned to the National Assembly, but not as a member of the House of Representatives but as a senator. He has since been in the Red Chamber as he was re-elected in 2011 and 2015.
Factors in his favour
As the Chairman, Senate Committee on Public Accounts, Lawan enjoys the respect of his current colleagues, including returning Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) senators.
It is common knowledge that he has a close relationship with current Senate President, David Mark. So, observers of National Assembly politics believe that if Lawan is presented by APC, old PDP senators, especially Mark’s close associates, may not withhold their support from him.
Also, notwithstanding the current disagreement over his endorsement within the North-East APC caucus, it is on record that if he would get the plum job, he will first get solid support from his North-East zone, comprising Borno, Adamawa, Bauchi, Yobe and Gombe, which boasts of 15 senators.
Perhaps because of his experience in the politics of the National Assembly, there is evidence that he has made significant effort to go beyond his immediate geo-political zone. It would be recalled that earlier in the week, the North-West APC senate caucus endorsed him at a meeting in Kaduna, attended by 20 of the 21 senators from the zone. The meeting, convened by Senator Abu Ibrahim, evidently had the support of powerful political forces from the zone. Although, Governor Kwakwanso was not physically present at the meeting, those present said he sent a goodwill message. Former governor of Zamfara State, Ahmed Yerima, who was also absent at the meeting was said to be bereaved.
Besides North-East and North-West, Lawan has also been endorsed South-West APC senators. Such a backing will amount to another 13 votes in his column. So, with at least 45 votes in his kitty from these three zones, Lawan will surely be a strong candidate for the office of Senate President. A winner needs 55 votes to emerge.
Lawan is also likely to pick some votes from the North Central zone as Niger State senators are likely to give him support. However, the zone seems poised to be a battle zone in this contest as two of his rivals – Saraki and Akume – are from there.
Another factor that may work for Lawan is the fact that in his 16 years at the National Assembly, he has not been dented by any scandal and as a result is one of the few baggage-free contenders for the office.
Factors against him
Until 12 senators-elect from the North-East geo- political zone called a press conference during the week to deny reports that they had endorsed Lawan for Senate President’s office, many thought he had nothing to fear. But now, it seems he still has to tidy up his home support if he hopes to wear the crown.
Indeed, the vehemence of the protests led by Senator Goje should worry Lawan and his backers. Speaking as leader of the North-East All Progressives Congress (APC) Senators’ Caucus, he told reporters in Abuja, during the week that the group had not picked any candidate for the position yet since it had not been formally zoned to the area by the national leadership of the party. Alluding to the backing for Lawan from the North West and South West, he said no zone will be allowed to impose any candidate on them.
Members of the caucus at the press conference include: The Chairman, Danjuma Goje (Gombe Central), Secretary, Isa Ahmed Gusau (Bauchi Central), Ali Ndume (Borno South), Bukar Abba Ibrahim (Yobe Central) and Abdulaziz Murtala Nyako (Adamawa Central)
Others are Senators-elect Binta Garba Marshi (Adamawa North), Ahmed Abubakar (Adamawa South), Usman Bayero Nafada (Gombe North), Abubakar Jare (Borno North) and Suleiman Nazif (Bauchi North). Senator Ahmad Zannah (Borno Central) was said to be indisposed.
Also, some senators, who still insist on power balance and fairness say, Lawan is a Fulani from the North-East and that it may not be right to elect him the Senate President, now that another Fulani, General Muhammadu Buhari, is the President.
GEORGE AKUME
Former Benue State Governor, George Akume, has not hidden his desire to succeed Senator David Mark as the next Senate President.
In the last few weeks, he has embarked on series of consultations with different political interest groups, including some of the old and returning senators across all party lines and leadership of his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC).
However, he has more than three other formidable contestants to contend with to clinch the nation’s number three seat. How far can he go?
South-West support crucial
Fully aware that the endorsement of South-West caucus in the Senate is crucial to his election as the next Senate President, sources disclosed that the former governor has been reaching out to many of his colleagues (both old and new) asking for their support.
Banking on his long association with members of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) caucus now in the All Progressives Congress (APC), Akume, it was learnt, has left no stone unturned to get this group behind him. In his calculations, once this caucus backs him, he is almost home and dry for the Senate Presidency.
Sources, however, disclosed that the South-West caucus is being circumspect in supporting Akume for a number of reasons, which include among others, feelers from the camp of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the incoming Senate that it would not under any circumstance support Akume, who is the Minority Leader of the outgoing Senate.
The Nation gathered that in the event that APC endorses Akume as its consensus candidate for the Senate Presidency, the PDP had allegedly hatched a plot to “pay APC back in its own coin” by throwing its weight behind another candidate in APC or within its fold. One scenario could see the incumbent David Mark who is also from Benue State throwing his hat into the ring.
This likely scenario would have been a reenactment of the “Tambuwal magic” in 2011, during which the defunct ACN, in alliance with some PDP members in the outgoing House of Representatives voted for Hon. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal as the Speaker in contravention of the Presidency’s and the PDP leadership’s preference for Hon. Mulikat Akande-Adeola.
Competent sources disclosed that left to the South-West APC caucus in the next Senate, it would have fully backed Akume in line with the practice in advanced democracies like the United States where the Minority Leader automatically assumes the position of the Majority Leader once his party assumes a numerical advantage in the chamber.
Alternatively, the party could have called the major contestants an organized a straw poll to choose who to back. But this is out of the question because none of the candidates is willing to back down and the PDP is waiting in the wings to capitalize on any wrong move by APC.
Other factors against Akume
Beside the aforementioned reasons, perhaps the biggest factor allegedly against Akume is lack of bloc support from his home base of Benue State.
The former governor and the outgoing Senate President, David Mark, sources say, don’t see eye to eye. Their frosty relationship dates way back from Akume’s days in the PDP and as governor.
The relationship got worse even after Akume’s election to the Senate and his decision to contest against Mark for the Senate Presidency in 2007 despite not being a ranking member and in apparent defiance of the endorsement of Mark by majority of the power blocs in the Upper Chamber. Mark and most PDP senators are yet to forgive Akume for this “effrontery,” it was learnt.
Though Akume later emerged as the Minority Leader, he never got on well with Mark up till now.
So strong is the anti-Akume feeling among the PDP caucus that sources disclosed that if the APC insists on the former governor running, Mark may also throw his hat into the ring or, in the alternative, back a neutral APC candidate to defeat Akume.
Speaking on the disposition of President-elect, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari to Akume’s aspiration, a source said the former has insisted that he has nothing against the former governor, and that he would align with any decision arrived at by the APC leadership on the issue of the Senate Presidency.
But from all indications, the former Benue governor may not lose out completely if he misses out in the race for the Senate Presidency. Sources in the know claimed that he may be compensated with a principal officer’s position if he loses the Senate President’s race.
BUKOLA SARAKI
Supporters of the Chairman, Senate Committee on Environment and Ecology, Bukola Saraki, believe he is the best man to preside over the 8th Senate due for inauguration on June 6, 2015. They say he is well-loved and charismatic.
They argue that he has friends across party lines in all the nooks and crannies of the nation. They also point to the achievements of the former Governor of Kwara from 2003-2011.
As Chairman of Nigerian Governors’ Forum(NGF), they said he achieved so much for the nation, chief of which was the invocation of the Doctrine of Necessity, which enabled President Goodluck Jonathan to function as Acting President during the latter days of late President Musa Yar’Adua.
For sure, Saraki is determined to vie for the position. He has openly declared interest in the senate presidency with many of his foot soldiers already mobilising support nationwide. Saraki’s lieutenants have been lobbying senators across party affiliations to support his aspiration for the position.
Going by his body language, Saraki is not prepared to step down for anybody. It is also hard to imagine him accepting a consensus arrangement by the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the senate presidency that does not favour him. For him, it is an ambition that can only be truncated by votes of fellow senators.
Factors in his favour
At just 52, Saraki has an appealing youthfulness for the post. He matches the agitation for a youthful representation. The agitators believe that a young Senate President, like him, will add glamour and class to the office. He would also have the energy and zeal to handle the physically demanding job. That, to many, is a great factor that might swing votes in his favour.
In his political career, Saraki has always attracted interest across the country. He mixes and socialises freely, giving him the image of a smooth politician. Cosmopolitan and suave, Saraki will be able to fit in at any gathering and make lasting impression. For digital-friendly youths, Saraki is a darling with his appealing tweets and presence in the social media. That image of a borderless politician will resonate with many senators and stakeholders.
His administrative acumen came to the fore as chairman of NGF, which he restructured and transformed to become a major powerbase in the nation during the Yar’Adua’s presidency. As governor, he also proved himself as a brilliant administrator, winning several accolades in power sector, agricultural reforms and infrastructural development.
Factors against him
But his strengths can also be his undoing. Though he is a ranking senator, critics say he is only on his second-term and does not yet qualify to preside over the senate when there are more entrenched members. His capacity to elevate whatever office he occupies to an influential status could also count against him in the race to the senate presidency.
Many say he would be too powerful as a Senate President, going by his antecedents during the NGF’s chairmanship. Saraki, they allege, turned the Forum to a powerful pressure group without which nothing moved in the nation. The possibility of having “a power monger,” as one critic described him as the number three man is too difficult for some to imagine.
Also, among those opposed to his ambition are leading Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) senators, who have not forgotten Saraki’s role in the fuel subsidy scandal.
In 2013, Saraki had blown the lid on the N2.7 billion fuel subsidy scandal in the senate. His whistle-blowing revelations unsettled many powerful interests. They retaliated with a grilling by the Economic and Financial Fraud Commission (EFCC) of the senator, who spent hours answering questions on how the defunct Societe Generale Bank of Nigeria (SGBN), where he was a director, became liquidated.
Many have still not forgiven him for his leading role in the subsidy scandal. PDP senators are also angry that Saraki dumped the party and allegedly destroyed its power base in the North-Central, especially Kwara and Kogi states. Sources said they may fight tooth and nail to stop someone like Saraki from emerging Senate President.
So, there is the possibility that if APC should adopt Saraki as its preferred candidate, the PDP caucus, which has 45 senators, may resolve to back another person to clinch the senate presidency. That is a scenario many interest groups in the APC do not want to emerge. It will create another Tambuwal-like power structure that ultimately led to the demystification of the PDP in the outgoing administration.
Sources said APC will not want to take off on such a faulty foundation. We gathered that party leaders are keen to ensure that whoever they would back emerges winner come June 6, if not for anything, at least to establish party supremacy and guarantee a supportive Upper Chamber.
For now, Saraki’s support base is mainly Kwara State with three senators. He can also count on the two APC senators from Kogi State. He needs a major power structure to swing the votes in his favour. This is more so because many senators from the North-East seem set to support one of their own to win the position.
Though the APC has stated it has not zoned the senate presidency to any region, most analysts and sources said the North-East is currently favoured to grab the slot. The mood generally is that the region has never produced a senate president and deserves to be rewarded for giving the second highest numbers of votes to the Buhari-Osinbajo’s ticket.
In this light, Saraki is considered a Yoruba from the North-Central region. The South-West already has the Vice President’s slot. To give another Yoruba man, Saraki in this case, the post of the third citizen may be described by critics as over representation for the Yoruba nation.
