The Nation Newspaper

Tag: realignment

  • Poltics of defection and realignment in Kano

    Poltics of defection and realignment in Kano

    In this piece, Ahuraka Yusuf Isah examines the defection of Senator Basheer Garba Lado from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kano State and its implications for the realignment of forces, ahead of next year’s general elections.

    When Peoples Democratic Party’s Senator Basheer Garba Lado in the Seventh Senate who represented Kano Central Senatorial District from May 29, 2011 to May 28, 2015 defects to the All Progressive Congress (APC) on January 27, 2018, a new political realignment will be  on course in Kano State.

    Lado is not new to playing the role of upsetting the political equations. Against the backdrop of the 2011 general elections, he contested the PDP primary with the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Umar Ghali Na’abba, for Kano Central Senatorial ticket and defeated Na’abba to clinch the ticket. Of course, it was akin to biblical story of ‘’David slaying the Goliath.’

    But, there is more to Lado’s defection that meets the eyes. What is likely to be unfolding readily reminds one of ‘’algebra elimination by substitution,’’ in higher school lessons.

    Perhaps, the following lesson quotes may explain it all: ‘’The idea here is to solve one of the equations for one of the variables and plug this into the other equation. It does not matter which equation or which variable you pick. There is no right or wrong choice; the answer will be the same, regardless. But, some choices may be better than others

    Neither of these equations is particularly easier than the other for solving. To solve a system of equations by elimination we transform the system such that one variable “cancels out”.

    The fundamental justification for the restrained relationship between Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso and the state Governor Umar Ganduje is that while the later wants the status quo maintained in the control of  rein of political structure or power, perhaps the new man at the helm of affairs wants to assume his own political personality.

    The current political climate in Kano politics began as a result of the fallout of Buhari’s emergence as President. While the likes of Atiku and other contestants in the primary collapsed their political structure for Buhari in the run down to the presidential election, the understanding was that Kwankwaso did not. Take for instance, Atiku handed Garba Shehu to assist Buhari for the press and publicity issues, just as Nda-Isaiah turned in his Leadership newspaper for Buhari’s official campaign organ.

    By the time Buhari won, even with landslide in Kano State, the belief in Ganduje’s camp was that it was all due to their efforts. This also translated to tacit refusal of Kwankwaso for FCT minister position he wanted from the villa, just as he lost out for senate leadership slot.

    To buttress their point, Ganduje and his supporters made sure a mammoth crowd turned up to receive President Buhari during his recent visit to Kano state.

    There appears no immediate solution to the strained relationship between Ganduje and Kwankwaso. President Buhari was said to have attempted to broker peace, but without success.Their erstwhile cold war has since degenerated to full blown hostilities.

    On January 14, 2018, no fewer than six members of Kwankwasiyya and Gandujiyya groups were injured at Chiranchi quarters in Gwale Local Government Area of the Kano state following a clash between the two political groups. Both Ganduje and Kwankwaso were formally seeking control of the APC party machinery in the state. It is expected that the dynamics of Kano politics will change with the entry of Lado into APC and the strongly rumored exit of Kwankwaso from APC.

    This is in tandem with the story making the rounds that Kwankwaso who came second in the APC presidential primary held in Lagos in December 2014 will make another attempt to contest for the Presidency in 2019 under the platform of the People Redemption Party (PRP).

    PRP was Second Republic incarnation of the Northern Element Progressive Union (NEPU) and 4th Republican incarnation of a similar namesake. The party was created by supporters of Mallam Aminu Kano after his withdrawal from the National Party of Nigeria (NPN).

    Although Kwankwaso had as at August 15, last year denied reports through his Chief of Staff, Aminu Abdussalam, that he was defecting from the APC to PDP, saying the report was “totally unfounded.’’ His nephew, Musa Iliyasu Kwankwaso on November 30, last year said Kwankwaso, has given the go-ahead to his supporters to dump the APC for the opposition PDP.

    He said: “Already, he has given the go-ahead to his supporters to join the PDP in Kano State so that they can contest in the forthcoming local government election in the state. But what I can assure him is that the APC will win all the 44 local governments because of the growing support base of Governor Ganduje.

    “It was because of Kwankwaso that the chairman of the PDP was thrown out of office so as to hand over the party structures to him ahead of his defection.”

    However, the understanding in many quarters within Kano is that Kwankwaso may dump the APC and not for the PDP, but for the PRP because of his 2019 presidential ambition. It will rather be easy for him to get the presidential ticket under the PRP than in the PDP.

    Lado had in the April 2011 election for the Kano Central Senatorial seat polled 359,050  votes, ahead of Aminu Abba Ibrahim of the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) with 273,141 votes and Alhaji Bello Isa Bayero of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) with 227,792 votes.

    The construction of the Kundila flyover, which the masses named after Lado as ‘Gadan Lado,’ in appreciation of the role he played not only to bring the project to Kano State but also in ensuring its completion, has marked him out amongst senators, both past and serving ones of Kano State extraction. Also, the ongoing dualisation of 171km Kano-Katsina road, was one his defining constituency projects when he was in the senate.

  • 2019: Politics of realignment in Oyo

    2019: Politics of realignment in Oyo

    The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)’s reconciliation with former Governor Rashidi Ladoja and the new understanding among Abiola Ajimobi, his predecessor, Adebayo Alao-Akala and former Senate Leader Teslim Folarin have signaled new alignments in the Oyo State politics, which may shape the 2019 general elections. BISI OLADELE reports.

    When the National Caretaker Committee Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Ahmed Markafi, declared after his victory at the Supreme Court on July 12 that he would lead the party on a successful reconciliatory path, many disparaged his ambition, based on the failure of previous efforts. But, the moves by his committee are yielding fruits in Oyo State. Some of the party’s former leaders are already returning, following after series of parleys. For instance, Oluseyi Makinde, who flew the flag of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the 2015 governorship election, is back in the fold.

    Political watchers are keenly waiting for former Governor Rashidi Ladoja and his successor, Adebayo Alao-Akala, to follow suit.  While Makinde and Akala dumped the PDP, preparatory to the 2015 elections, Ladoja left for Accord in January, 2011. They left due to irreconcilable differences.

    But, a surprise photo surfaced on social media recently, suggesting yet another realignment of forces in preparation for the 2019 elections. It was a group photograph of  Ajimobi, Alao-Akala and Folarin in a relaxed meeting in London, the United Kingdom. The conviviality of their mood conveyed a political fraternity, which made analysts believe that they may have been united for the 2019 elections.

    Since Akala and Folarin fell apart in 2010 over the PDP governorship ticket for the 2011 election, both politicians have not resolved their crisis. Yet, Fokarin supported Ajimobi in the 2011 elections in spite of the fact that they belonged to different parties. While Folarin was in the PDP, Ajimobi contested on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). It is believed that Folarin supported Ajimobi to spite Akala, who sought a second term to thwart Folarin’s governorship ambition in the 2011 poll. Besides, Folarin and Ajimobi are Ibadan indigenes who have a common tie through the late Ibadan politician, Chief Lamidi Adedibu.

    Yet, in another meeting, recently, Akala hosted Ladoja in his Bodija, Ibadan home. It is believed that the latter led the PDP team to woo Akala back to the party.

    From the two major meetings, it is becoming clearer that Akala will be a valuable bride to court in the 2019 election in Oyo State. His value is largely due to his popularity in Ogbomoso, his birth place. From 2007 till date, Ogbomoso voters have expressed solidarity for the former governor through landslide victory he recorded in all of the elections.

    PDP will wax stronger due to the return of Makinde and Ladoja.

    But, Akala may stay back in the APC, if he has the assurance of Ajimobi for joint ownership of the next administration. He will naturally prefer an arrangement where he would not be directly under the leadership of Ladoja for fear of revenge and uncertainty of party and policy decisions. If he operates in the same party with Ajimobi, Akala will interpret it as working with a friend and equal rather than under Ladoja where he would be a subordinate.

    For this reason, the return of Ladoja and Makinde will do little to upstage the APC in the next election because of its strength in Oke-Ogun, Oyo, Ibarapa, Ogbomoso and Ibadan. The APC’s strength in Ibadan will also slightly grow, should Folarin perfect his defection to the party before the next election.

    The former senator will have good reasons to defect to the APC. It will be a time of reward for him for his support for Ajimobi since 2011. He will be a major voice in the APC, officially coming under Ajimobi who will have served two terms of eight years. Also his defection will reduce the strength of the PDP in Ibadan while wielding more influence as a leader of the party in power, both at the federal and state levels.

    All these mean that the next election in Oyo State may be between APC and PDP, unlike in 2015 when five major parties struggled for supremacy. They were the APC, Accord, Labour Party, PDP and SDP. This time, Accord and SDP, which were imported as safety nets, will be dead.

    Town unions including Ibadan Elders, Central Council of Ibadan Indigenes (CCII), Ogbomoso Parapo, will wield great influence in determining who becomes governor and other top positions.

    But, their influence will somehow wane, if the above expectations come to reality. The PDP will solely determine its candidate before seeking their endorsement. The APC may honour them by letting them see the reasons they will like to present their candidate but will not likely pander to their choice if they differ.

    Other implications include the fact that the campaign will be tough and that the electorate will be divided into two sharp sentimental groups with fierce support for their parties and candidates.

  • 2019: Politics of realignment in Oyo

    2019: Politics of realignment in Oyo

    The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)’s reconciliation with former Governor Rashidi Ladoja and the new understanding among Abiola Ajimobi, his predecessor, Adebayo Alao-Akala and former Senate Leader Teslim Folarin have signaled new alignments in the Oyo State politics, which may shape the 2019 general elections. BISI OLADELE reports.

    When the National Caretaker Committee Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Ahmed Markafi, declared after his victory at the Supreme Court on July 12 that he would lead the party on a successful reconciliatory path, many disparaged his ambition, based on the failure of previous efforts. But, the moves by his committee are yielding fruits in Oyo State. Some of the party’s former leaders are already returning, following after series of parleys. For instance, Oluseyi Makinde, who flew the flag of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the 2015 governorship election, is back in the fold.

    Political watchers are keenly waiting for former Governor Rashidi Ladoja and his successor, Adebayo Alao-Akala, to follow suit.  While Makinde and Akala dumped the PDP, preparatory to the 2015 elections, Ladoja left for Accord in January, 2011. They left due to irreconcilable differences.

    But, a surprise photo surfaced on social media recently, suggesting yet another realignment of forces in preparation for the 2019 elections. It was a group photograph of  Ajimobi, Alao-Akala and Folarin in a relaxed meeting in London, the United Kingdom. The conviviality of their mood conveyed a political fraternity, which made analysts believe that they may have been united for the 2019 elections.

    Since Akala and Folarin fell apart in 2010 over the PDP governorship ticket for the 2011 election, both politicians have not resolved their crisis. Yet, Fokarin supported Ajimobi in the 2011 elections in spite of the fact that they belonged to different parties. While Folarin was in the PDP, Ajimobi contested on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). It is believed that Folarin supported Ajimobi to spite Akala, who sought a second term to thwart Folarin’s governorship ambition in the 2011 poll. Besides, Folarin and Ajimobi are Ibadan indigenes who have a common tie through the late Ibadan politician, Chief Lamidi Adedibu.

    Yet, in another meeting, recently, Akala hosted Ladoja in his Bodija, Ibadan home. It is believed that the latter led the PDP team to woo Akala back to the party.

    From the two major meetings, it is becoming clearer that Akala will be a valuable bride to court in the 2019 election in Oyo State. His value is largely due to his popularity in Ogbomoso, his birth place. From 2007 till date, Ogbomoso voters have expressed solidarity for the former governor through landslide victory he recorded in all of the elections.

    PDP will wax stronger due to the return of Makinde and Ladoja.

    But, Akala may stay back in the APC, if he has the assurance of Ajimobi for joint ownership of the next administration. He will naturally prefer an arrangement where he would not be directly under the leadership of Ladoja for fear of revenge and uncertainty of party and policy decisions. If he operates in the same party with Ajimobi, Akala will interpret it as working with a friend and equal rather than under Ladoja where he would be a subordinate.

    For this reason, the return of Ladoja and Makinde will do little to upstage the APC in the next election because of its strength in Oke-Ogun, Oyo, Ibarapa, Ogbomoso and Ibadan. The APC’s strength in Ibadan will also slightly grow, should Folarin perfect his defection to the party before the next election.

    The former senator will have good reasons to defect to the APC. It will be a time of reward for him for his support for Ajimobi since 2011. He will be a major voice in the APC, officially coming under Ajimobi who will have served two terms of eight years. Also his defection will reduce the strength of the PDP in Ibadan while wielding more influence as a leader of the party in power, both at the federal and state levels.

    All these mean that the next election in Oyo State may be between APC and PDP, unlike in 2015 when five major parties struggled for supremacy. They were the APC, Accord, Labour Party, PDP and SDP. This time, Accord and SDP, which were imported as safety nets, will be dead.

    Town unions including Ibadan Elders, Central Council of Ibadan Indigenes (CCII), Ogbomoso Parapo, will wield great influence in determining who becomes governor and other top positions.

    But, their influence will somehow wane, if the above expectations come to reality. The PDP will solely determine its candidate before seeking their endorsement. The APC may honour them by letting them see the reasons they will like to present their candidate but will not likely pander to their choice if they differ.

    Other implications include the fact that the campaign will be tough and that the electorate will be divided into two sharp sentimental groups with fierce support for their parties and candidates.

  • On parties’ merger and realignment

    On parties’ merger and realignment

    The ultra-democratic supposition that majorities necessarily midwife the truth has few enthusiasts these days. We can be grateful that almost the sum of Nigeria’s opposition parties have thus far averted many blatant errors in their bid, this time around, to merge as a progressive party to replace Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), but there is always the danger that it could someday force a compromise that will prove fatal.

    The history of all the parties involved in the ongoing merger talks abound in examples of this process of merger cum renewal. The Action Congress (AC) under the leadership of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu before the 2007 Presidential and gubernatorial elections absorbed and gently domesticated the populist impulse that gave birth to the ACN. Much later, the ACN after 2007, co-opted most of the views that had been championed by Asiwaju Tinubu’s progressive thoughts and action in that year.

    These were the acts of a party out of national power, seeking to make fresh alliances for the struggles ahead. It was not surprising, therefore to find certain elements in the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) South-west zone, in the early 2007s during a period out of power, reaching beyond its previous power bases and seeking to join hands with new socio-political forces in the South-west.

    The evidence is fast accumulating that the time for a party realignment that will accommodate the progressive elements within the PDP may at last be ripe. In the National Assembly especially, the failure of the present ruling party to reflect adequately the political desires of a majority of voters is painfully manifest.

    Since the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1999, the Peoples’ Democratic Party has had majorities in both the Lower House and the Senate, yet this overwhelming predominance has resulted in few policy initiatives that can with any seriousness, be regarded as expressing the will of a majority of the Nigerian people, or even any specific proclivities of the party. The opposition parties with the National Assembly spectrum reaching from ACN to CPC and others have stood for just about everything for our nation, while the PDP in their generality have responded by standing for practically nothing. The result has been that neither of them, taken all in all, has stood for much of anything.

    In presidential terms, the performance of the ruling party at the centre has been proved to be the worst in the annals of governance in Nigeria.

    Might not a realignment of the parties be brought about in which the “liberal/progressive” values endorsed by so substantial a proportion of the population find expression in a party specifically designed to express them?

     

    It is not a new idea, on the contrary, I shall demonstrate that exactly such a political movement has been on the very verge of success in this country slouching around Bethlehem, as it were, trying to be born. Once it came to the brink of realization only to be thwarted by the black mischance of the PDP assassin’s bullet. On another occasion the liberal/progressives themselves, momentarily yielding to the temptation of what appeared to be expedient compromise, threw away a golden opportunity. The attempt being made now for all the liberal/progressive forces to unite and promptly sweep everything before it is welcomed as this is certainly the right time to build a new party together to reflect the true distribution of political forces. Many observers believe the time is opportune for a new major party consciously designed to free PDP’s hold on the jugular of the Nigeria masses’ vein.

    Ideally, the new party to be announced with whatever name that will be attached to it, should originate and grow spontaneously, without reference to the presidential candidacy of any particular individuals. Certainly it must never be allowed to become merely the lengthened shadow of a single man. But in practical terms, the party ought to be able, almost from the very outset, to point to reputable and responsible individuals who at least might, if the circumstances were propitious, accept its presidential and vice-presidential nominations. “You can’t beat somebody with nobody” is one of the oldest and soundest rules in politics, and such essential tasks as recruiting personnel and raising funds for the new party will be well-nigh impossible if there is no one visible on the horizon who at least might make a plausible race for the presidency under its banner.

    Above all, let us restore to generations yet to come, the old and all-but forgotten pride in this country and its heritage. Let us give still further solid and visible grounds for that pride, by making the nation’s streets safe, eradicating corruption from our systems, and let there be light perpetually in the country. Let us make way for ability wherever it exists and remember our obligation of compassion, where it does not.

    We reject the counsels of demagogues who promise something for nothing, and will speak instead the truth, even when it hurts. Above all, we will restore to the Nigerian political process some part of the joy and optimism it has lost.

    For if we succeed, we will have accomplished a mighty thing. We will have reversed in Nigeria, where it counts most – the whole downward-spiraling tide of the 21st Century. There is no reason why this century’s great experiment with freedom must end in failure. It was men and women who created the opportunity, and they who have botched it; and they can rescue it, even now, if they only will. It is up to us, and the means are at hand, a large and devoted majority of the Nigerian people, and a new majority party, under tested leaders, ready to express their will. Together they can save, and formidably reinvigorate our beloved and imperiled country.

     

    • Engr. Shoyebo is the author of the book: “WANTED – Genuine and Patriotic Nigerian Politicians”