The gladiators in River State’s political slugfest crossed the Rubicon long ago: all their recent actions only confirm the fact. People say there are no permanent foes in politics – not in this South-South state.
Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Nyesom Wike, on a visit to the state at the weekend, told a gathering that making Siminalayi Fubara governor was a mistake he would correct at the right time. A day after, his embattled successor who, interestingly was Accountant General in that period, declared he would probe all eight years of the Wike administration. It was an ominous step which carried the unstated threat that he knew where financial bodies were buried.
Just yesterday while touring some projects he lamented the debt burden on the state caused by Wike’s projects. As he reeled off the figures of outstanding liabilities he said much as he loath to do so, he had to speak out ‘so the blowing wind will expose the fowl’s bottom.’
The probe and the sudden disclosures are therefore not so much about accountability, but dragging a preening opponent into a mud bath.
Interestingly, in May 2022 the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) declared Fubara and three other officials of the state government wanted for alleged criminal conspiracy, money laundering and misappropriation of N117 billion.
Can the probe threat then be said to akin to being a judge in one’s own case, or should we see it as a manifestation of the Samson complex – pulling the entire structure down on everyone?
No matter the motivation the move is understandable. Over the years governors have been known to use such probes to fight their rivals or estranged godfathers. Wike did same to Rotimi Amaechi over the metro line and other projects. Godwin Obaseki did it to Adams Oshiomhole in Edo after their falling out. In Kaduna State, the assembly is probing the financial affairs of the Nasir El-Rufai administration.
There’s nothing novel about the feud. It’s a replay of godson trying to break free from the shackles of the benefactor. Sometimes it blows open when an overbearing godfather goes too far and tramples on the ego of his successor. Other times, it’s the case of an unwise godson not biding his time and stooping to conquer.
We can discern how the Rivers conflict got to this point through Fubara’s statement that he would always appreciate his predecessor, but never worship any human being.
Everyday that passes you get a sense of the growing cockiness of the Fubara camp. At the weekend one-time factional Speaker of the House of Assembly and current Chief of Staff to the governor, Edison Ehie, told a television station his boss would teach his foes a hard political lesson.
Much of their confidence comes from the hazy legal status of the state legislature and its leadership. But equally key is the fact that governors are very powerful in Nigeria, so much so that some have become mini emperors. They dictate who gets what at state and federal levels and have the key to the treasury. Rivers is one of the most affluent states in the country and Ehie has suggested that the fight is about controlling the state’s resources.
But as powerful as governors can be, we have also seen that they can be brought to heel. Local factors determine how these power struggles pan out, not minding how powerful the gubernatorial office is. For instance, where most governors are able to impose their successors, we saw in Delta State in 2015 where a combination of power brokers thwarted Emmanuel Uduaghan’s bid to install his anointed.
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Four years later, former Ogun State Governor, Ibikunle Amosun, was frustrated in his bid to impose his man. In Lagos State, Akinwumi Ambode, lost his chance to run again after the bulk of his political family rose up against his aspiration.
So, in analysing what is likely to play out in the Wike-Fubara face-off, people shouldn’t be in a hurry to declare victory for any side. This is going to be a long drawn fight that could go to the highest court in the land. There will be collateral damage, such that whoever is left standing at the end would only have achieved pyrrhic victory.
For starters, the Wike political family that went into the 2023 elections as one unit, is now fractured. Given the bitterness of the ongoing fight it’s hard to see how they can ever work together again. More is better than less for any structure.
In this dispute mistakes have been made on every side. The first was the bombing of the House of Assembly following threats by lawmakers to begin impeachment of the governor. It doesn’t require clairvoyance to discern that only those opposed to what was about to be executed in the chamber may be behind it. In short order, Fubara would order the demolition of the whole complex ostensibly for renovation. The rubble became a tomb for the assembly’s records!
It’s as if the Rivers governor’s camp has torn a page out of the playbook of Edo Governor Obaseki, during his battles with Oshiomhole. In 2020, faced with a hostile bunch of lawmakers who were still loyal to the then APC national chairman, he caused the roof of the assembly to be removed and lorry loads of sand and gravel to be dumped at the gate to facilitate ‘renovation.’
The sudden zeal to beautify the assembly temporarily rendered the facility unusable. What followed was factionalisation of the legislators with the majority anti-Obaseki elements sent into exile, while the minority ruled the roost.
Today, in Rivers, a farcical situation exists where three or four lawmakers are passing budgets, screening and confirming commissioners, whereas Chapter 5, Part 2, Section 91 of the constitution states that the House of Assembly would consist of between 24 and 40 members, and quorum would be one-third of that number.
The Fubara camp sees in this context what it thinks is it’s trump camp. The constitution does provide that those who defect from the party on which they were elected would lose their position. But it goes on to give certain provisos. For instance, the defections can be justified where there is a division in the party. It also provides a role for the Speaker in the process of declaring the seats of defectors vacant.
Flowing from this, many have accused the pro-Wike lawmakers of making an unforced error. Knowing that the courts will be ultimate arbiters in this dispute, it is important to understand how they work with evidence, not hearsay. True, there was a press conference where the legislators purportedly quit. But don’t rule out a twist.
For instance, when a lawmaker wants to defect, he writes a letter to the presiding officer of the chamber who reads same to the whole house and proceeds to cross the carpet, as it were. His seat would then be declared vacant. Have these processes been followed in the Rivers assembly? Have the lawmakers formally resigned from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with evidence in form of letters of resignation? Can the local party leadership confirm they have renounced membership? Have these legislators been registered and formally issued All Progressives Congress (APC) cards?
Ultimately, the courts would determine how this conflict ends. They would rule on the legitimacy or otherwise of the Martins Amaewhule leadership or whether Victor Oko-Jumbo’s claim to the Speakership is real or fanciful. Which way the decision goes will also determine the fate of the governor and his foes.
In January this year, Justice James Omotosho of the Federal High Court in Abuja gave a series of rulings that effectively tied Fubara to the status quo. Among other things he nullified the N800 billion budget passed by the Ehie faction of lawmakers, declared the Amaewhule group authentic and warned Fubara not to exceed his powers.
But just a few days ago, there was another injunction from the state High Court which barred the 25 pro-Wike lawmakers from parading themselves as members of the House of Assembly. Flowing from that the governor issued an Executive Order directing the assembly to meet in Government House. This is in direct violation of the Omotosho court order.
The dramatis personae in the power struggle clearly have very short memory. They forget that it is in that same Rivers State that disobedience of an existing court order led to APC not having a governorship candidate at the 2019 polls.
There’s another scenario on the table of options. This is a state which in the past was notorious for political violence such that it was branded ‘Rivers of blood.’ With the hardline positions of both sides the hope is that things don’t degenerate to violence. That would make a compelling case for presidential intervention through a state of emergency.
Rivers is not an ordinary state. It plays host to the headquarters of many firms active in the oil production industry. If it is at war with itself there are economic implications for the country as a whole.
Control is important but all sides need to ask themselves how far they are willing to go. The hawkish positions that have been adopted are clearly the work of persons behind scenes with their own agenda.
Many thought the political solution sponsored by President Bola Tinubu was a recipe to calm things down and postpone the fight to another day. But the ink was barely dry on the documents before all sorts of interests began piling pressure on Fubara, arguing the deal was not only lopsided but unconstitutional and non-binding. Perhaps, due to their influence and counsel, the governor has only implemented one or two items like recalling commissioners, but steadfastly stopped short of representing the 2024 budget, or doing anything that confers legitimacy to the assembly led by his opponents.
With the heat turned up, many are now calling for another presidential intervention. But why would Tinubu lend the prestige of his office to brokering another deal when the initial one has been observed only in breach? Respect for his office would have required that the original pact be honoured to the letter, even if for the sake of peace.
Peace is the primary requirement for building anything. For those egging on the combatants, it is pertinent to state that those at war can never be at peace. Everyday this conflict drags on, it is entertainment for non-partisan observers, but a distraction to the main players – Wike and Fubara. But more importantly, by the time it runs it’s course, there would be damaging consequences for all sides whenever they are counting the cost of their ‘victory’.
