In the past few weeks, the President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki, has been in the news as the arrowhead of the internal revolt in the All Progressives Congress (APC) through deft subterranean political manoeuvres. In this piece, our Managing Editor, Northern Operation, Yusuf Alli, examines the emergence of Saraki as a “beautiful bride” and his prospects with suitors like the APC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
SINCE his sweet victory at the Supreme Court, the President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki, has emerged with a renewed vigour in the permutations for 2019 as a likely kingmaker, a rallying point, a game changer or a spoiler. Depending on the fashion designer and the mood swing of actors, any of the political garments might fit Saraki in 2019. His absolute grips on the National Assembly and expansive political mileage have added up to earn him the sobriquet of a “bride.”
While the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is desperate to have Saraki back, the All Progressives Congress (APC) does not want him to defect. Savouring the new toga, Saraki is keeping the two parties in suspense while trying to watch before he leaps. On Tuesday in Ilorin, he was not forthcoming on his next move. He simply said: “As I said, don’t worry, don’t push me. I will call at a time and I will tell Nigerians… As I always say time will come for everything, a time will come I will tell people where I am, what I’m doing.” It is indisputable however that he is the pivot around which discontent in the APC is woven.
Saraki’s grouses
The grouses of Saraki actually came to fore on Thursday at the Presidential Villa during a closed session with President Muhammadu Buhari, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and APC governors. A source at the parley said: “At least for the first time, there was a frank session between the President and Saraki. He expressed disappointment over his humiliation by the government he fought hard to put in place.
“We were all sober when he was revisiting his travails because none of us would pray to be in such a situation. We understood with him but we felt it was time to forgive and forget in order to move forward.”
A reliable source in Saraki’s camp said: “While Saraki saw his trial at the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT) and acquittal by the Supreme Court as part of a dangerous political game, what pained him most was his link with the armed robbery in Offa, Kwara State. At that point, he said it was obvious that those behind the plot were out to destroy him. He did not believe the Nigeria Police Force could go to this extent.”
Saraki gave a robust testimony in Ilorin on Tuesday on his tortuous journey. He said: “It’s been a long journey for all my own people in the state, and today we thank the Almighty God for this. I want to thank all of them who did not at any time waver. They believe in my innocence and supported me throughout those three very tough years and it was a great feeling for all of us. For now it is just to thank the people of the state because the last three years have been tough and they are still committed and remain and I have to appreciate that. I appreciate that.”
But the grievances were captured in the April 2018 letter to APC and President Buhari by nPDP leaders. The letter said in part: Our grievances include:
In the constitution of the Federal Executive Council, (FEC) the New PDP block was generally sidelined as virtually no position was conceded to it. The only member of FEC that belonged to former New PDP block comes from a state that contributed virtually no vote to the APC in the 2015 presidential elections.
There has been no significant patronage and appointments to executive positions in various government agencies such as Chief Executives and Executive Directors of government agencies and parastatals as members of our block of the party continue to helplessly watch as these positions are shared by the erstwhile CPC, ACN, ANPP and even APGA blocks of the party and those who have no party at all.
In appointments into boards of various government agencies, very few former New PDP members were patronised. These are however not commensurate with our contributions to the growth and victory of the party.
When members of the former New PDP block showed interest in running for the offices of President of the Senate and Speaker of the House of Representatives, they were subjected to a vicious and relentless political opposition as if they were not legitimate members of the APC family.
During the party primaries preparatory to the 2015 General Elections, most of the promises made to sitting members of the National Assembly, who belonged to the former new PDP in terms of a level playing field were reneged upon or observed more in breach.
There has been general lack of consultation, non-recognition and even persecution of former New PDP members and leaders by the party and government. For example, some of our leaders are denied the security cover necessary to visit their constituencies even though they are elected representatives of the people in a government they sacrificed so much for.
Harassment, intimidation and persecution of former New PDP leaders by the government, is still an ongoing affair. We do not want to overstate the obvious by cataloguing names of former new PDP stalwarts that are targets of this political pogrom.
“There is inadequate reflection of programme and policy contributions of members of the former New PDP block in the running of the government.
“Our belief is that it does not augur well for our party if a section of it feels that it is being treated as outcasts and meddlesome interlopers in the party they rightly belong with the legitimate expectation to be treated with justice both in the running of the party and the government.
What are the options before Saraki
The Thursday meeting at the Presidential Villa passed the buck to Saraki’s table. He needs to take a make or mar decision. As if he saw it coming, the President of the Senate had personally raised a committee to gauge the feelings of his constituents across the zonal districts in Kwara and the six geopolitical zones nationwide. Although the committee turned in a report that Saraki should leave APC, he chose to be more circumspect by floating another plan to consult further. This was more so having suspected that the committee’s report might have had a tone of “blind loyalty.”
Definitely, Saraki has two options to either remain in APC or defect to PDP and damn the consequences. Save for his prospective presidential ambition, the offers from the two parties are basically the same; it is left to the President of the Senate to make a rational choice.
Going by time constraints, it is too late for Saraki to vie for the presidential ticket of PDP at the party’s primaries either in August or September. If he does without being a consensus, the outcome will be fatal for him. His defection limits in PDP cannot go beyond the concessions which Liyel Imoke Contact and Mobilisation Committee asked the PDP to accept. These terms are Senate Presidency; ceding of party structure in Kwara State to Saraki and R-APC; governorship ticket; two Senatorial seats and House of Representatives slots.
But he has some hurdles to cross in PDP because some caucuses in the party, especially those loyal to ex-President Goodluck Jonathan, do not want him. Certainly, Saraki cannot call the shots in PDP as he used to do when he was a bonafide and a strong leader of the party. The power equation shows that he has to queue behind the new power brokers led by Governor Nyesom Wike who was a Chief of Staff when Saraki was a governor. A member of the Board of Trustees of PDP said: “We cannot because of Saraki and other defectors rejig our National Working Committee (NWC). The best we are offering them is minimal input into party structure at the state level on 60-40 per cent basis. Many of us prefer old members being in 60 per cent management of the State Executive Committee (SEC) and the defectors having only 40 per cent stake because we do not know their final bus stop.”
The likelihood of Saraki emerging as a consensus candidate of PDP is remote because the core North might rate him more as a Yoruba than a Northerner. In spite of his cosmopolitan credentials and added value of a Christian mother, the Hausa-Fulani oligarchy might see him as usurping a slot meant for them. But if PDP takes the risk to field Saraki for the presidency,
PDP option: Good or slippery for Saraki?
The PDP option appears slippery for Saraki because the opposition party is yet to get its act together. It is running from pillar to post to seek alliance or coalition in order to defeat Buhari, who has the first right of refusal in APC. Out of over 38 parties the PDP proposed alliance with, none of the minor groups has won election. The arrangement was said to be a “parasitic alliance” by a member of the National Executive Committee of the party. Also, a few days ago, the National Chairman of the party, Prince Uche Secondus, said PDP might boycott 2019 poll.
The most dangerous dimension of taking a risk with PDP is about another loss by the opposition in 2019, which may lead to political oblivion for Saraki. For instance, Buhari and the APC have consolidated well in the Northeast, Northwest; they are looking very good in the Southwest and comfortable in at least Niger, Nasarawa, FCT, and Plateau (with about 50 per cent of the votes) in the Northcentral. One of his loyalists said: “If we don’t get the permutations right, it will amount to political suicide in 2019. But if we can sustain our hold on Kwara State, it might totally not look hopeless but it will be unpleasant if our leader has to play lesser roles at the centre.” A defeat for PDP in 2019 is the end of offers to Saraki in whatever manner by the opposition because APC will pay more attention to the election of principal officers after its victory based on a power-sharing formula.
And having gone far in defection talks with PDP, the opposition leaders might not trust Saraki anymore if he does not leave APC.
And the APC …
If Saraki learns to be magnanimous, his best bet may be APC where he is a “landlord” of sort. In spite of his disagreement with APC leadership, Saraki and other nPDP leaders were still able to secure plum seats in the National Working Committee (NWC) of the ruling party. A source at Thursday meeting said: “As part of preventing Saraki’s defection, we may offer him juicy terms, including: automatic return as the President of the Senate in 2019; more consultation and inclusiveness in key decisions henceforth; mutual Executive-Legislature relationship; revisiting all issues raised by nPDP Caucus which formed the basis of talks in the past few months; reconciling with all aggrieved leaders of nPDP and avoiding a repeat of past mistakes which led to his humiliation.
“We also appeal to Saraki to shelve moves to defect to PDP or any other party. We agreed that he has a better stake in APC than any other party.”
Another source in APC said: “Like his demand, what Saraki has to do is to ask for a review of the coalition pact and seal it up with a written agreement.”
The fears with Saraki remaining in APC border on the readiness of the President and the party keeping to any agreement reached. The Senate President might have learned from the travails of ex-President Goodluck Jonathan who ran into storm over an unwritten one term agreement with Northern leaders. Reneging on the “so-called agreement” led to Jonathan’s defeat in 2015.
Investigation indicated that Buhari, over the years, has always been a man of his words, he might not accept agreement bond. He can leave such a decision to the party or decide to ask all leaders to allow trust to prevail.
Can Buhari, APC really do without Saraki?
Going by the results of past presidential elections in Kwara State since 2003, Saraki has never garnered up to 500,000 votes for any candidate he had supported. In 2003, he mustered 390,170 votes for PDP against 170,365 by the former All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). As at 2011, the PDP secured only 268,243 votes compared to 83,603 by the defunct Congress for Progressives Change (CPC). Also, in 2015 the APC got 302,146 votes to defeat PDP candidate, ex-President Goodluck Jonathan who had 132,602 votes. Not minding the quantum of votes being delivered, the Senate President has bestrode Kwara landscape in the past 15 years having been a beneficiary of a rich political heritage from his father, the late Sen. Olusola Saraki, who was better known as the “strongman of Kwara Politics.”
Since 1976 when the first local government election was conducted, the Sarakis have towered above other political groups in the state. It is obvious that Saraki Dynasty cannot be wished away. If the pendulum changes in 2019, going by the present rate of discontent in the state, it will be historic if the dynasty suffers a setback. But the irony of politics in the state is that about 90 per cent of those in the opposition are products and beneficiaries of the dynasty. Most often, the politics in the state appears a family affair because the key actors have a way of shuttling for survival between the dynasty and those opposed to it.
With about 1,142,267 registered voters in Kwara State, out of which 242, 000 refused to collect their Permanent Voter Cards (PVC), the state has the prospect of causing electoral upset if the political leadership and parties mobilise the citizens to exercise their franchise. It is left to either APC or PDP to work hard in earnest to woo the voters in the state. As for President Muhammadu Buhari, he had consistently secured more than 25 per cent of the total votes cast in Kwara State in 2003, 2007 and 2011 without any political alliance with Saraki Dynasty. There was however huge electoral returns for Buhari in 2015 when the APC coalition was floated.
If Buhari or APC is contented with 25 to 30/40 per cent of the votes from Kwara, it might not lose sleep with the defection of Saraki and his supporters. The APC will only improve on its past performance in all the Northcentral states to checkmate Saraki’s influence in the geopolitical zone.
What Saraki, R-APC leaders really represent
The reactivation of New PDP caucus in APC and the formation of Reformed-APC from APC was no doubt with the knowledge of Saraki whose incurable loyalists and henchmen were the masterminds. To date, Saraki has not condemned the emergence of R-APC because it was part of the larger script of nPDP. Since Saraki is the unseen force behind nPDP or R-APC (which boasts of over 4million votes), some leaders and governors of APC were of the strong opinion that it is better to make peace and address their grievances instead of going into the 2019 poll divided. Although the nPDP is depleted, some APC stalwarts felt party cohesion (instead of division) is necessary in an election year. In the letter to Buhari, the nPDP said: “The stubborn facts are as follows: In Kano State APC scored 1,903,999 in 2015, and in Kwara 302,146. In Sokoto State it scored 671,926, and 374,701 in Adamawa. In Kebbi State, APC had 567,883 votes and 885,988 in Jigawa. It was the same story in Gombe (459,898), Kogi (264,851), and Benue (373,961) votes. These represented significant additions to the APC victory column. Indeed, the influence, activities, momentum and ripple effect generated by the former New PDP block was significant in the victory of APC in the entire elections in the whole country.”
Can nPDP, R-APC, Saraki still boast of controlling 4m votes?
The exit of ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Governor Murtala Nyako, ex-Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, Governor Samuel Ortom and Saraki (if they make up their minds) from APC will no doubt affect the electoral standing of the ruling party in Adamawa, Kano, Kwara, Kaduna and Benue states, but they can only reduce the 4million votes delivered by the nPDP-R-APC axis in 2015. APC will also get more votes with the influence of ex-governors Aliyu Wammako, Danjuma Goje, Adamu Aliero, Saidu Dakingari, Ahmed Yerima, Governor Atiku Bagudu and Governor Badaru Abubakar.
But APC and its governors have not ruled out reconciliation with Saraki and other nPDP-R-APC leaders.
A governor said: “We are in a season of looking for votes, not losing votes. We cannot afford to forego more than 4million votes to resolvable intra-party crisis.
“Some of us came together to assist the party leadership to reconcile with those aggrieved and set a new template for our union. If it now becomes necessary to part ways, we will do so mutually without animosity.
“The PDP may be pretending but they are mainly after these 4million votes in 2019 and they are banking on Saraki’s political networth. We won’t allow the opposition to take him away.”
The governor said capturing Northcentral is more strategic for Buhari in view of the challenges in Kano and Kaduna where the APC is in crisis. He said: “We need to sustain our electoral fortunes in Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Plateau, Nasarawa, and the FCT in particular in view of the political risks in Benue State as a result of the herders-farmers clashes.”
Also, findings confirmed that the nuisance value of R-APC and some of its leaders is heating up the polity and creating distractions for APC. Being insiders, according to a top source, “Nigerians might tend to believe their story more than what our party will tell them. For instance, the daughter of one of the R-APC leaders is a presidential aide but they will not touch on this.
“We need to narrow the debate to the performance of the APC administration than the shenanigans of the R-APC which is being used for vendetta by those who cannot even deliver their polling units.”
On Friday, the President alluded to political leaders who constitute nuisance. He explained why he had to declare his re-election bid for 2019 early. He said: “I had to announce before the National Executive Committee of our party about my intention to ask for the party’s nomination for next year’s election so that we could save a lot of time and cool tempers. A lot of people were trying to make it a habit of being a nuisance to themselves and many Nigerians, so when I came out I said those who are serious let them come out.
Being insiders, according to a top source, “Nigerians might tend to believe their story more than what our party will tell them. For instance, the daughter of one of the R-APC leaders is a presidential aide but they will not touch on this.”
Does Saraki really hold the ace in 2019?
Outside being blessed with political initiatives and uncommon gift to build tentacles, which some leaders like the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Yakubu Dogara, Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, some PDP and APC governors, are tapping from, Saraki cannot boast of controlling any of the six geopolitical zones in the country. He does not dictate the pace in the Southeast, Southsouth, Southwest, Northeast, Northwest and Northcentral. But Kwara State remains his fortress until the electorates decide his fate again in 2019. His greatest talents revolve around being a blessed tactician. And most often, he gets it right.
Which way forward?
With the way he has managed the affairs of the National Assembly in the last three years, Saraki has a selling point or a coercive political magic making him to be on top of his game. He cannot be overrated or underrated but he has some political depth which can be of value to either APC or PDP. How the two parties will tolerate Saraki’s survival instincts in 2019 could add value to their electoral value or reduce it.