The Nation Newspaper

Tag: signals

  • Welcome signals

    •We laud Aregbesola, Ize-Iyamu’s conduct over polls results

    One defining feature of an underdeveloped political structure and indeed a fragile and vulnerable democratic culture is the refusal or unwillingness of political candidates to accept the outcome of elections. This attitude raises serious problems of legitimacy, stability and efficacy for governments at all levels. For the most part of our political history, elections have been difficult to distinguish from warfare, with the institutions and processes abused and perverted with impunity, thus inevitably damaging the credibility of virtually all polls.

    A positive turning point from this tendency was the 2015 presidential election in which the then incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan has been widely applauded for accepting the outcome of the polls without resort to protracted legal tussles or even extra-constitutional measures with dangerous implications for the polity.

    An indication that this wholesome culture of voluntarily embracing the outcome of free, fair and credible elections is being strengthened in Nigeria was the general acceptance of the results of last weekend’s Osun West Senatorial by-election. The election, to fill the seat which had become vacant due to the death of the then incumbent, Senator Isiaka Adeleke, the first civilian governor of Osun State, was hotly contested principally between the deceased’s junior brother, Otunba Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Senator Mudashiru Hussein of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state. Adeleke won the impressively peaceful and orderly polls by 97, 480 votes to his main opponent’s 66,116 votes.

    Unlike the characteristic pattern in the past, where the losing side would have denounced the polls irrespective of its integrity, the APC in Osun State honourably conceded defeat and affirmed its respect for the will of the electorate. Osun State Governor, Rauf Aregbesola, who had strongly backed Hussein, congratulated the winner and in a tweet on Sunday afternoon affirmed that “the people of Osun have spoken”. This is statesmanship at its best.

    We agree with the speaker of the state house of assembly, Najeem Salam, of the APC who, in congratulating the winner attributed the success of the election to the lawful conduct of the electorate, the efficiency and transparency of the electoral umpire and the vigilance and professionalism of the security agencies. The lesson here is that the freer and fairer elections are, the more likely that their outcomes will be willingly endorsed by contending parties.

    A no less ennobling, even if slightly different example, in this respect was that of Mr. Osagie Ize-Iyamu, the PDP candidate in the 2016 Edo State governorship election, who readily congratulated the governor, Mr. Godwin Obaseki, after the Supreme Court, in a unanimous judgment, upheld the latter’s victory at the polls. Mr. Ize-Iyamu had exercised his right to challenge the outcome of the election right from the Edo Election Petition Tribunal through the Appeal Court to the country’s apex court. At every stage, Mr. Ize-Iyamu’s case was dismissed for lack of merit. His persistence to the Supreme Court was indicative of his determination to pursue his grievance to its logical conclusion and there is nothing wrong in that.

    When the Supreme Court upheld the decisions of the lower courts, with which he had disagreed, the PDP candidate bowed to the law and declared in a statement that “I accept in good faith this decision of the highest court of our country, which affirms Mr. Godwin  Obaseki as the Governor of Edo State. I thereby congratulate Mr Godwin Obaseki and assure him of my goodwill”.

    These are certainly welcome signals that despite inevitable stresses and strains, a viable democratic culture is systematically growing in Nigeria. However, the practice of losers accepting the will of the electorate with honour and dignity also demands that winners exercise grace, restraint and magnanimity in victory.

  • Bello signals a new dawn in Kogi

    Bello signals a new dawn in Kogi

    Bearing all things, there is no doubt that Kogi State has made history today; a new governor has been sworn in; in the person of Alhaji Yahaya Bello. Either by design or commission, providence has brought him to the public lime light.

    I join millions of responsible Kogites to congratulate his Excellency, “Alhaji Yahaya Bello,” his family and his constituents. To me, it is a significant event in that for the first time in the political history of Kogi State, power has moved from the hands of the majority to the minority. It is common experience amongst democratic society that when a minority part of the body come to take power away from the majority part, things get better; things get improved and in most cases, the power is retained longer because of commitment to transparent and productive governance. I hope this will be the case with Yahaya Bello.

    I can say this is the best of all equals for Kogi and its people at this time. While I must commend the efforts of past governors that the state has had, I must also put on record that Kogi State has not experienced the best governance in terms of economic growth and development, social infrastructure, wealth and job creation.

    My agenda therefore for Alhaji Yahaya Bello is very clear; I want to see Kogi State of today launched into local and international investing markets. Opportunities abound in the state which other states in Nigeria are lacking. Ajaokuta Steel Company remains a significant economic growth trigger; Kogi is a strong food basket for the nation (agriculture wise), there is abundance of solid minerals such as coal, mining, etc.

    In the past, I have made efforts to bring my wealth of national and international investments connectivity advantage to Kogi State, but the leadership then was unable to see the light at the end of the tunnel. So, I welcome the new regime to a completely new departure from old political and economic drawing board of the state.

    First, I recommend that he be open minded, an honest explorer and a great marketer of investment opportunities in Kogi State to international investors; he should be a servant of all and not a small god over Kogites, he should build a bridge of peace with all recognizable and respectable community units in the state. He must do away with pride, arrogance, pomposity, self-centeredness and corruption.

    Finally, he should be a governor of vision and fore-sight, given to wisdom, understanding, co-operation, collaboration, consultation and communication. All this constitutes credible road map to better governance and public accountability. In particular, let me draw his Excellency’s attention to the despicable, deplorable and shameful condition of the people of Ibaji community of the state. They are a people without a voice and no one remembers them. Ibaji Local Government is a place increasingly speculated to have rich oil deposit. I think this can be exploited as it is capable of putting the state on the world map of oil producing states.

    Prof. Onalo is the Registrar/Chief Executive Officer of the Institute of Credit Administration (ICA).

  • End time signals

    Those tempted to construe this topic from the prism of the biblical end time should hold it. This is because the subject matter has neither anything to do with the scriptures nor the chain of events that will herald its projected end time.

    End time according to the scriptures, will be signposted by thunder, lightning, earthquake, fear and awe. On that day, humans, dead and living are expected to give account of their lives to the almighty God- a day of judgment with verdicts varying from the good, the bad and the ugly. That is as far as the scriptures are concerned.

    We are here concerned with events of politics and not religion. It would appear there is something in our current politics that shares some semblance with the biblical end time which should not be overlooked. This should not be surprising as the dividing line between religion and politics has always been a matter of intense debate.

    Medieval philosophers such as St Augustine and Thomas Aquinas made a classification between the corporal and ecclesiastical realms and contended that affairs of the state should be separated from that of the church. That has been a cardinal principle of the organization of modern governments in varying degrees.

    The end time setting may be handy in capturing the chain of events that played out in this country in the last two weeks or so leading to the change of leadership. Within that time frame, several negative events were either activated or played out within this country to raise fears as to whether we were about facing our own version of the political end time? With a few days to the handover to the Buhari administration which was eventually consummated at the weekend, the nation virtually came to a halt. It all started with independent oil marketers refusing to dispense petroleum products until they were paid all outstanding arrears of fuel supplied to the government. They were said to be afraid that the incoming government will not be willing to pay them especially given the controversy and scandals that have hallmarked the so-called subsidy payments. Then came in very quick succession, a plethora of strikes from sundry oil workers and organized labour unions demanding salary increases and all that.

    Their net effect was a virtual halt in economic and social activities such that raised fears as to whether our democracy and the impending handover would be eventually imperilled. The situation was so bad that banks had to cut down their working hours for lack of diesel. GSM providers also threatened to shut down for the same reasons. Not unexpectedly, these had very deleterious effects on power supply which further dipped to an all time low on account of non supply of gas and vandalism of critical power supply equipments. The nation was on edge as everything came to a near standstill. It was a period never witnessed even in the days of acute fuel scarcity which had stabilized in the last five years or so in many parts of the country.

    Since then, there have been varying views as to who to hold responsible. Accusing fingers have been pointed at the government since the buck stops at its table. Many see it as ample evidence of the running aground of the nation’s economy by the Jonathan administration.

    Yet, for some others like the Arewa Consultative Forum ACF, it was a deliberate plot by Jonathan to hinder the smooth take-off of the Buhari regime. Citing the energy crisis and fuel scarcity, the forum said the situation was a bad parting gift from Jonathan.

    But as the forum spoke, Jonathan was at the Federal Executive Council meeting blaming the chain of events on those who are out to sabotage his administration. Describing the situation as outright sabotage, he queried the coincidence of these strikes and demands for salary increases just a few days to the expiration of his administration.

    Before Jonathan spoke, the outgoing Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala had on another occasion sought to know why diesel that has already been deregulated was also scarce. She left his audience without doubt that there is more to the strikes than the dispute between the government and oil marketers on subsidy payments.

    That has been the blame game even as the situation has been stabilizing as the strikes have been called off with fuel selling well above the controlled price. With these, our fears of the political end time has been stymied albeit, temporarily.

    But issues regarding who was responsible for those chains of events would linger for quite some time. Discerning people would have to make up their minds between the ACF and Jonathan who is saying the truth. They will have to make up their minds on whose side the weight of guilt tilts. We need to consider the possibility that Jonathan engineered those who nearly brought his administration down in its last days, vis-à-vis what he stands to gain from it. There is also the need to take a critical perspective of the alleged plot to scuttle the smooth handover to Buhari through contrived strikes. What gains are there for him to make by activating a chain of events which outcome would eventually ridicule his regime in its last days in office? And at any rate, who takes responsibility for anything that imperils the nation before the handover? These are the issues to ponder.

    They should be resolved taking into account the issues raised by Jonathan that the strikes were unleashed to sabotage his administration with only a few days to go. They should be resolved taking copious cognizance of the scarcity of diesel that has long been deregulated. What were the demands of the marketers on the issue of diesel that it also went scarce during the period? These are some of the moot questions that may lead us to resolve some of the issues that have been bandied.

    Beyond these, Jonathan appeared to have raised the bar of these contradictions when in response to calls for his regime to be probed, he accepted the challenge but with a proviso that it should go beyond his administration.  He wants the probe to include the way oil wells and fields were allocated in the past. He wants such a probe to unravel how oil fields, marginal oil wells and others were in the past allocated and if extant laws of this country were followed.

    Since it is all about oil and oil revenue, the challenge by Jonathan must be taken up by Buhari having now been sworn in. There is a lot going on within the oil sector that needed to be exposed. Jonathan must have some vital information from his vintage office and Nigerians should demand full investigations into the entire oil sector. Much of the corruption we finger in the oil distribution chain may be a child’s play in the face the monumental rot in the allocation of oil fields and wells. He has let out the cat and no attempt should be made to cover it up. The time has come to expose the cabal that is making a fortune of our oil resources taking advantage of the high positions they hitherto occupied.

    That should be the heuristic value of the dialectics that have been activated by the clash of interests among the ruling elite bent on circulating power between themselves. Buhari must take up this challenge to disprove the Marxian notion that the state and its structures are instruments of oppression in the hands of the ruling class. The probe must reassure Nigerians that oil is our collective patrimony rather than that of a privileged class. The time for reckoning has come; our political end time.

     

  • Worrying signals from Imo

    Keen observers of events in Imo State in the last couple of weeks are bound to be worried about the rising foul political atmosphere in that state. This perception is further reinforced by the fact that the ban on politics is still in force.

    If signs of political intolerance and bad blood are very palpable even with the ban on politics still in force, it remains to be surmised what the situation will be when the lid is eventually lifted. For a state that has overtime carved a niche as one of the most peaceful in the country, indications that this record is about to be thrown to the dogs do not give comfort of mind.

    Events have taken place in very quick succession to suggest that political actors and sundry personages are about to heat up the political space for their selfish goals. Otherwise how do we account for the intolerance, recurring use of intemperate language and resort to the law of the jungle that have of recent characterized some social events attended by the state governor, Rochas Okorocha and other opposition politicians in the state?

    At least in three different occasions in about a month, we have seen signals that the 2015 elections in that state, may turn out bloody if caution is not exercised by those angling for political offices. It would appear that the turn of events may ruffle the trademark peace that has characterized the politics of the state since the return of democracy in 1999.

    The rancor and bitter politics that have been the undoing of some sister states may turn out a child’s play if Imo politicians do not exercise caution and utmost restraint in their actions, conducts and language of political discourse.

    Though the incident between Okorocha and Charly boy in Oguta during the burial church ceremony of the latter’s father, Justice Chukwudifu Oputa does not aptly fit into this categorization, it however, bears mention here. This is more so because the state government had then blamed Imo politicians in Abuja for being the architects of Charly boy’s unruly conduct. Even then, Charly boy had equally explained that his action was to prevent the burial from being turned into a political campaign ground. Either way, politics was inevitably dragged into the matter by both parties.

    If people did not understand the fears alluded to by Charly boy then or agreed with action, two other social events since that encounter give a glimmer of what he may have foreseen. This conclusion is further given fillip when it is recalled that the key reason adduced by Okorocha’s image managers for linking Abuja politicians to the incident was their desire to prevent the anticipated huge ovation that was to herald the governor’s speech given his popularity with the people. So they had envisaged that the occasion may be taken advantage of to launder political image. This dimension may have been the fear of Charly boy for which he did not allow the governor to speak. Yet that does not make his action right.

    The Oguta incident may not have qualified as an act of political intolerance since Charly boy is not known to be a politician. But the 2014 edition of the Oru Owerri cultural festival held recently in Owerri was all that was needed to tap into the political temperament of the state as the 2015 general elections draw nearer.

    That event had in attendance Governor Okorocha, his deputy and the entire state executive council members. Also in attendance were a female governorship aspirant, Senator Chris Anyanwu, another governorship aspirant and former attorney general and commissioner for justice in the state, Ken Njamanze and some National Assembly members among other dignitaries.

    Okorocha who spoke immediately after he was inducted urged Imo electorate not to allow criminals and 419 people to be voted into leadership positions in the state any more.

    But he stirred the hornet’s nest when he urged the gathering not to allow “a woman who slaps her husband in public to govern the state”. “You must not allow ono na di acho di (married women still in search of husband or worse still women of easy virtue) to govern or represent you anymore”.

    His choice of words did not go down well with the audience which subsequently went rowdy. There was commotion as the governor’s supporters and those of the other politicians at the venue attempted to engage themselves.

    Those who could no longer withstand the charged environment left even as it was reported that Senator Anyanwu sobbed apparently sensing that the allusions by Okorocha were meant for her.

    Okorocha’s conduct at that event has not gone down well with decent minds. Though he did not mention any name in his statement but it was not difficult deciphering whom the allusions were directed at. Worse still, it remains to be imagined why a governor should descend from his Olympian height to embrace gutter language in such a dignified event.

    He may have spoken the minds of many when he urged the audience not to vote for criminals and 419 people any more. That is the prayer of right thinking people of the state. Yet, even as it is an open secret that the politics of that state and the country is dominated by these tainted elements, our laws have not helped the situation. Those that can be so classified refuse to admit that such references apply to them. That has been the problem.

    Again, this schism reared its ugly head last week at the Iri ji new yam festival of the Mbaise clan. This time, the actors were Okorocha and Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha. Ihedioha while welcoming the governor reportedly remarked that he was going to take over from him next year as Okorocha has run out of ideas. He also spoke of the absence of the state government’s presence in Mbaise accusing the governor of neglect.

    Okorocha who did not take kindly to this, replied that there is nobody in Imo PDP who is his match in electoral contest and that the PDP is worse than the Ebola virus. He tried to showcase his achievements with a promise to cite a campus of the state university in the area but this did not impress the audience.

    The event degenerated to a free for all between Okorocha’s supporters and those of Ihedioha but security operatives were on hand to avert any danger. The governor was said to have been whisked out of the venue even before the traditional kola nut breaking.

    Apparently dissatisfied with the outcome of events, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Viola Onwuliri who represented President Jonathan lamented that Okorocha was “not interested in the event but only came to create confusion and derail it”.

    Both Okorocha and Ihedioha have since embarked on recrimination on each other’s role that brought about the pass.

    The governor demands an apology for the way he was treated. His adversaries would rather have him apologize to the Mbaise clan for disrupting their ceremony. So the buck passing goes on with tempers highly ruffled.

    The ordinary people of the state may turn out victims if this rancor is taken to political campaigns. It is therefore vital that all those seeking the mandate of the Imo electorate abide by the rules of engagement. And to borrow the words of President Jonathan, their victory is not worth the blood of any Imo citizen.

  • Danger signals from Rivers

    Rivers State House of Assembly played host to a theatre of the absurd last week. Five errant lawmakers in a 32-member assembly, apparently emboldened by support from ‘above’, hatched a devious plan to impeach the speaker and elect one of theirs as the new speaker. The planned resumption of sittings which the assembly had communicated the Police commissioner and the Army commander to provide adequate security turned out the undoing of the speaker and majority of the law makers.

    Unknown to them, the five dissenting legislators who take orders from Abuja had perfected plans for a showdown by importing ex-militants and thugs into the assembly complex preparatory to acting out a script crafted for them. In arriving at this suicide mission, it never occurred to them that both in terms of numbers and extant constitutional requirements, they were heading for an impossible task. But they trudged on apparently buoyed by recent events at the Nigerian Governors’ Forum election where a minority has since laid claim to its leadership with the full support of the presidency. If the five legislators had come to the conclusion that they could as well pull a surprise despite the heavy encumbrances on their way, it should not surprise any one. Basking on the backing or anticipated indifference of the law enforcement agencies, they made good their plan to stir trouble on the floor of the assembly. Curiously, five of them succeeded in instilling fear into 23 legislators loyal to the Rivers State governor to the extent that they had to scamper for safety. This further spurred them to the point of purportedly electing a new speaker. It took the intervention of Governor Amaechi for order to be restored after the ensuing confrontation. The assembly subsequently sat and approved an amendment to the 2013 budget presented to it by the deputy governor. That amendment was the main purpose for which the speaker summoned the assembly.

    Events in the assembly have generated condemnations from a broad spectrum of the Nigerian people. Not only are they irked by the seeming indifference of the police, accusing fingers, for good reason, have been pointed at the presidency for simulating the crisis in that state. The confrontation is generally viewed as a continuation of the crisis in the NGF since the dramatis personae has not changed. As was the case in the NGF crisis, the presidency has washed its hands off that show of shame. In a tepid statement hurriedly put together following its fingering for tacitly supporting the dissenting lawmakers, its spokesmen put up futile efforts to deny complicity from Abuja. Not many believed them anyway. It was a rehearsal of the same stale denials that hallmarked the crisis in the NGF until Jonathan openly roped himself into the matter by publicly recognizing the losers as winners. So if the same presidency is again denying vicarious culpability in the latest crisis, no body will take it serious. Not with the purported recognition of the so-called new ‘speaker’ by the Peoples Democratic Party PDP. Since it is the same enemy that is involved, the warring five may have come to the conclusion that any thing is possible in this country including an insignificant minority impeaching and having its way over the majority? After all, this will not be the first of it in our recent political past. We saw such a charade in its worst form during the regime of Obasanjo. We are all witnesses to the abduction of former Governor Chris Ngige of Anambra state by a band of marauding buccaneers bent in sucking the state dry.

    Yet, nobody was punished for that odious conduct except perhaps, the AIG of police in charge of Zone 9, late Raphael Ige. The same impunity played out in Bayelsa and Plateau states where officials of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC used a few lawmakers to impeach the governors in the most kangaroo manner. It was the impeachment of the governor of Bayelsa State where Jonathan was the then deputy that opened the door for his meteoric ascendancy to power.

    So if Jonathan is now seen to be taking the footsteps of his mentor in a very cruel manner, we can understand him. In a previous article in this column titled ‘Jonathan going Obasanjo’s way’ we had drawn attention to the observed inclination of Jonathan to the undemocratic pranks of Obasanjo. We had predicted also that the logic of self preservation will drive him into such frenzy that he may soon become an ardent apostle of those anti-democratic tendencies that marred Obasanjo’s regime.

    Successive events have borne out these predictions. Today, Obasanjo has been effectively sidelined in the PDP in the same manner he did to those who were instrumental to his release from prison and subsequent drafting into that party. Nemesis one may wish to call it!

    More fundamentally, all these anti-democratic tendencies are neither being spurred by public good nor in the interest of our floundering democracy. At the centre of them all, is the lure of primitive accumulation of power, influence and capital. We saw Obasanjo manifest this in his obnoxious third term ambition even as our constitution has no room for such a self-serving contraption. Jonathan’s is manifesting in the desire for another term despite the dire straits the nation is currently passing through. He may be within his rights to desire another term. But his current posturing that seeks to cut down anybody or processes seen to be standing against his ambition is potentially dangerous and may spiral a chain of events with dire repercussions for this country.

    It is very hard to exculpate Jonathan from the chain of embarrassing events that have been the lot of Rivers these past days. It is a big shame that the deputy governor was ambushed and cars in his convoy damaged by hired thugs. Equally inexcusable is the report that teargas canisters were hurled into government house even as soldiers there have been withdrawn together with the armoured personnel carrier. Why these are happening in very quick succession can only find explanation in a subtle attempt to simulate anarchy so as to declare a state of emergency.

    Or how else can we rationalize the effrontery of the five legislators despite their incapacitation on account of numbers? Obviously, they were responding to drum beats from those who control the instruments of coercion?

    If it took Amaechi to personally intervene before order was restored in the assembly, then we can better understand all that has been said about the bias of the commissioner of police, Joseph Mbu. If not for connivance, how on earth can five people intimidate and overpower 23 others to the extent that they had to scamper for safety? These are some of the issues to ponder. Even then, why was the initial screening at the assembly’s gate relaxed such that thugs had to enter with dangerous weapons? This question is pertinent for us to locate what must have spurred the recalcitrant five to take on their colleagues despite the futility in so doing. In all, both the five law makers and Mr. Mbu should take responsibility for the sordid outing of the assembly that day. They prepared for trouble and were the purveyors of the fight that ensued. They stand condemned in very unequivocal manner.

    Mbu has lost the confidence of the Rivers people and must not be allowed a day longer. His continued stay has become a big liability and clear evidence that some body somewhere kept him there for some odd job.

  • Ominous signals

    There is a huge cloud hanging over the Nigerian political space. It is evident from the utterances of groups and individuals. It can be seen in their actions or inaction. And the body language of key political personages also betrays this slide to the precipice. At the centre of the heating up of the polity, is the competition for the highest political office in the country-the presidency. Any and every issue sacrosanct for the overall survival of this country is now unduly politicized, trivialized and sabotaged.

    Even with two years to the next general elections, statecraft has been relegated to the background as sections are pitched against each other bandying spurious claims and counter claims. Not unexpectedly, these have resulted to threats and counter threats as to what harm awaits the nation should things not go the way of the contending interests.

    Much of these threats have come from the North and the South-south for very obvious reasons. But the North has been the greatest culprit in these divisive actions and utterances. It feels it has been badly shortchanged from that elated office given the eight years of Obasanjo; the six years Jonathan would have completed by 2015 and his touted desire to run again despite the purported agreement he signed in 2011 to serve one term. For these, northern leaders feel it is their turn to take a shot at the presidency and nothing can stand on their way. Also to their advantage is the original zoning in the PDP; an arrangement currently shrouded in controversy.

    But the South-south feels their son, Jonathan has a constitutional right to a second term and nothing should stop him from availing himself of that right. Their years of neglect even as the source of the nation’s wealth is also cited as a key reason they should be allowed for once, preside over the sharing of the nation’s wealth that is earned from their backyard. They are also piqued that Jonathan has not been allowed to do his job through contrived insurgency from the Boko Haram sect. The senseless killings in some parts of the North and the constant avowals by the insurgents to force Islam on the rest of the country are viewed with serious apprehension. This is more so, with the body language of some northern leaders which tend to lend tacit support to the violence in that part of the country. There are valid issues in the contending viewpoints. But a key point of note is that the two contending paradigms are being sponsored from within the ruling PDP. For a party that has boasted to rule for 100 years irrespective of its performance rating, it is not surprising why it is being seen as the surest way to power. Those threatening fire, lime, and brimstone should Jonathan run and make it or fail to make it, have their eyes on the capacity to manipulate that office to achieve electoral success. If they have faith in the sovereignty of the electorate; if they are firm believers in the sanctity of free and fair elections, their indecent desperation in concentrating all efforts in the PDP would have been needless. Even with the bitterness and hostility in that party that has seen it suspending two governors, its leaders still boast of the successes they intend to record in coming elections. One begins to wonder the source of this optimism if we remove the power of incumbency that has become a euphemism for rigging and falsifying election results. Rather than threats and counter threats, it would have made sense if the aggrieved were exploring other democratic methods of achieving their goals. And these abound in a truly democratic setting.

    However, Jonathan has the final decision to make. The success or failure of which will definitely shape the direction of events. There are two scenarios. The first envisages a situation where Jonathan runs and secures the ticket of his party. Going by the threats from the north, he should be prepared for the worst. We should expect civil unrest, escalation of violence and violent activities. After all, we now know that violence in the country peaked after the last primaries of the PDP. It will be worse this time around. These could manifest even before elections and degenerate thereafter as its outcome will be fiercely disputed. And if our experience in such matters is any thing to go by, the incumbent will be hard put to convince the world that he did not manipulate the outcome to personal advantage. Any observed infractions will be latched on to fault and discredit the outcome of that election.

    In the event of this, Jonathan, still wielding the instruments of coercion, will come down heavily on the anarchists. But the success or failure of this strategy will depend on the volume of violence that may erupt. Even then, the threats would have become a self-fulfilling prophesy. There is also the possibility of violence erupting from the opposition if the election fails the test of free and fair polls. We may witness a verity of the ‘dogs and baboons soaked in blood’. From both the point of view of the PDP and the opposition, possible sources of violence abound.

    The second scenario is a situation where Jonathan declines to run or runs and fails to secure his party’s ticket. This will see a northerner flying the flag of the PDP in 2015. Jonathan’s kinsmen said they will take resort to full blown militancy that can bring this country to its knees. This could commence before the elections or thereafter. If it begins before the election, then that election may not hold. Jonathan will then find himself waging a war against his kinsmen. If it commences after a new president, possibly from the north has been sworn in, the Niger Delta people are in for serious trouble. They may witness the treatment meted out to the Boko Haram sect in an escalated and vengeful proportion. The situation will be worse if the north succeeds in defeating Jonathan at the primaries and eventually wins the election. They could even become very vindictive, using power the way it pleases them.

    They will rule for eight years and then hand over to another zone in the north to compensate for their thirst for power. No body in the PDP will have the moral right to challenge them given that zoning in that party has almost been considered dead. But then, that would be another source of conflict within the nation’s body politic. Other sections that have been denied that office will commence another round of agitations. The country will know no peace. And the prediction that the Nigerian state will fail, may inch nearer. The PDP should therefore take the blame for overheating the Nigerian political environment. All the bickering, intolerance and tension are traceable to their doorsteps.

    It is getting clearer that the party does not have what it takes to steer the ship of this nation safely. Going by these threats, whichever way the political pendulum swings in that party, is bound to midwife violence of inestimable proportion.

    That is the harm champions of regional or sectional causes for the sake of cornering the presidency are doing to this country.

    But the big question is, should Jonathan run or not given the foregoing circumstance? Rational calculations instruct that he should run and he will run. What are the issues? He is still allowed another term by our constitution. Two, if he chickens out, he would have been seen to have succumbed to intimidation. Three, he could fathom that he has not been really allowed to fully implement his programs through contrived violence that has held this country down in the past two years or so. Again, he might consider it risky to relinquish power now given the way the north is going after it.

    To chicken out, will be at the risk of posting an unenviable record of the worst president this nation ever had.

    Jonathan will run; threats of violence notwithstanding. Instead of violence, those aggrieved should explore alternative avenues to vote him out. Happily, there is a coalescing opposition capable of tilting the balance. In it, the various zones may find, a more orderly and rancor-free circulation of power and through it, safely navigate the impending doom.