The on-going civil war in Ukraine in which the Russian federation is directly and indirectly involved is a cause for global worry. America and its allies in the west have also personalised the crisis by trying to put all the blame on the Russian President, Vladimir Putin who is being isolated and treated almost like a pariah at global conferences.
His government is being subverted at home through economic sanctions imposed on it by the west especially the European Union and United States and Canada. In recent years, apart from armaments, Russia has been reduced to almost a primary producer of gas and petroleum from its vast oil fields stretching from the Caucasus to the wilderness of Siberia.
This makes it easy for Russia’s economy to be undermined because unlike countries in the west, it has almost become a mono-cultural economy depending on exploits of hydrocarbons but Russia remains a great country with its possession of nuclear armaments that is capable of burying the whole world a few times over if pushed to the wall and forced to embark on a suicidal mission of using nuclear weapons against its enemies which would in retaliation destroy it. This is the danger of mutual annihilation which the world now faces. We all thought that we had moved away from the cold war.
But because of the Ukraine crisis and apparent Russian desire to assert itself globally and to defend the interests of ethnic Russians in independent countries that are the successor states of the Soviet Union. Her interest in this regard will also put her on a path of conflict with the rest of the world especially the western world. This problem can only be solved not by sabre-rattling but by dialogue and diplomacy and by respecting the mutual interest of Russia and the west.
Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union rightly feels that it is being ignored and being relegated to the status of a minor global player and sees the military adventurism of the United States in the current uni-polar world in which American power is largely unchallenged.
Russia is particularly irked by American military interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and in the expansion of NATO to the borders of Russia especially the incorporation of states in the former Soviet bloc into the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. The intended desire by Ukraine to join NATO and to become a member of the European Union was seen by Russia as an unacceptable provocation. The annexation of Crimea which was part of Ukraine but largely inhabited by Russians was Russia’s reaction to the provocation in Ukraine. Crimea for centuries had been the major warm water port of Russia.
If Ukraine had fallen into unfriendly hands, Russia felt that its interest would be challenged and threatened. This is why when Russia annexed with Crimea, Europe and America apparently understood Russia’s desire to protect its national interest and they were not in the position to do anything that would have precipitated the military conflict with Russia.
The west is angered by continued Russian support for rebels in Luhansk and Donesk, two areas that have declared themselves independent of Ukraine and that are 90 percent inhabited by Russians. Russia continues to deny its involvement in the fighting in eastern Ukraine but there is no doubt that Russia is directly involved. Many high-ranking Russians do not see Ukraine as an independent country.
They can not envisage a situation in which their forces would be fighting Ukrainians. They see such a scenario as reminiscent of Nazi created Ukraine during the Second World War. For example, the mother of Mikhail Gorberchev was a Ukrainian and she is buried there. So also are the parents of many Russians to the extent that it has become a psychological problem to see Ukraine looking west rather than looking east to Russia.
It is not in the interest of Ukraine itself to have Russia as a permanent enemy because the long arm of the United States, short of going to war, cannot protect Ukraine and it must therefore establish a modus vivendi with Russia that would guarantee its autonomy while having a friendly relation with Russia and normal diplomatic relations with the rest of the world. This is not to suggest a policy of finlandisation for Ukraine but it must exercise restraint in its policy choices and take the interest of Russia into consideration at all times.
This is what is called real politik in international relations. What is ideal is not necessarily real. The ideal of total and untrammelled independence of Ukraine irrespective of Russia’s interest is not realistic. Peace in Europe cannot be guaranteed through Russian isolation and treatment of Vladimir Putin as a non-person rather, his friendship has to be cultivated and Russian economy has to be assisted to prosper and it is in her prosperity that political liberalism would thrive in Russia.
Because hardship created by sanctions would no doubt lead to rabid nationalism in Russia arising out of hardship and frustration. The current western policies of pushing Putin into the warm embrace of rising China has thus replicated the alliance formation that led to the division of the world after 1945 into two rival camps armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons. The world does not need this again but unfortunately, this is what current policies in the west and in Russia are leading to.
The danger we now have is that the Obama administration is being pushed to embark on bellicose and military policies towards other competitors for global influence and power particularly Russia and China. This is at a time when the situation in the Middle-east is becoming more and more complex following the creation of a blood-thirsty Caliphate which America sees as a direct threat to it and its allies.
The spread of the nuclear weapon states to unstable countries like Pakistan, North Korea and possibly Iran in the future poses enough threat to the world and requires solidarity among the established nuclear weapons states particularly the United States, Russia and China which unfortunately do not see eye to eye on most issues facing the global community.
If the world is to have peace, America must ensure that its interest harmonise with the interests of Russia and China without America sacrificing the interest of its allies. I believe this can be done as Putin has publicly called for dialogue along this line. America should take the gauntlet and welcome Putin into the dialogue while exercising its right to ensure that Putin respects international law as it concerns national sovereignty of all nations.
