Tag: succession

The  emergence of James Ngilari as the new governor of Adamawa State, following the removal of Acting Governor Ahmadu Fintiri by the Abuja Federal High Court, has thrown the race for next year’s governorship open in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). RAYMOND MORDI and LEKE SALAUDEEN examine the implications of the power shift for the contest.

Within  three months, Adamawa State has been governed by three governors. But, the political drama in the state continues. The exit of Hon. Ahmadu Fintiri as the acting governor and the emergence of the former Deputy Governor James Ngilari, as the helmsman provides a fresh glimmer of hope for those who had lost out in the power game. Following the Federal High Court ruling in Abuja, the by-election was cancelled.

The opposition has celebrated the removal of Fintiri as a vote against the growing impunity in the state. But, nevertheless, the current set up still favours the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which staged a comeback in Adamawa after the impeachment of former governor Murtala Nyako on July 14. With Ngilari still a member of the party — having refused to defect with Nyako to the All Progressives Congress (APC) — the decision to shove Fintiri aside did not upset the power equation.

The party has however gone back to the drawing board to chart the way forward. No doubt, Fintiri is the greatest loser in the ongoing  drama. While waiting for the outcome of his petition, he has returned to his former position as the Speaker of the House of Assembly. But, his position as the Speaker is still in jeopardy because he comes from the same local government with Ngilari. The former Acting Governor has appealed against the High Court ruling, but his action has been described as a deliberate ploy to distract the new government.

Adamawa is likely to witness a long-drawn power struggle. The  crisis within the PDP has not been put to rest. With this development,  fresh shadow poll is expected to be held next month, in line with the party’s time table for next year’s general elections. But, Fintiri may not emerge as the party’s governorship candidate.

He featured prominently in the drama that led to Nyako’s impeachment. But, before he agreed to lead the battle, he had insisted that he would only accede to the plan, if Nyako was impeached alongside his deputy, Ngilari. Though the PDP leadership was not favourably disposed to Fintiri’s condition, it had to play along to get Nyako out of the way.

After taking charge, Fintiri wasted no time in consolidating his hold on power. According to a source in Yola, the state capital, immediately he took over, he paid the two months arrears of salaries being owed civil servants. The former acting governor, he added, had promised to settle other arrears, including leave allowances, after the Sallah break. Besides, Fintiri reached out to local council chairmen, party stakeholders with political largesse, including cars, contracts, cash and promises. Thus, he had clinched the party’s ticket for the botched by-election through the power of incumbency and state resources at his disposal.

According to the source, the national leadership of the PDP agreed to surrender the ticket for the by-election to the Speaker on condition that he would not participate in next year’s governorship poll. However, after Fintiri secured the ticket, he publicly said only God would determine whether he would participate in the  election or not. The statement did not go down well with  party leaders, who saw it as a veiled indication that he may renege on the agreement. The fear of the PDP leadership and the Presidency was that the party may not be able to contain him again, if he had been allowed to win the governorship contest. Thus, events appear to have aided the  party’s quest to stop Fintiri.

It is also not guaranteed that Ngilari would stay beyond next year’s governorship election. He may have been instrumental in removing Fintiri, but observers say he may not likely get the party’s ticket for the election. The Nation gathered that he is not popular in the Adamawa PDP because he does not believe in sharing money. The  source said  civil servants, who were looking forward to receiving their arrears of leave allowances that Fintiri had promised to pay them after the Sallah break,  are not happy with his emergence as governor. “Since he was sworn, he has not uttered a word concerning the allowances,” he said.

A party stalwart, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Ngilari would encounter difficulties dealing with the House of Assembly, which is firmly under the control of Fintiri. He said an indication that members of the House are not in support of Ngilari administration was that only one of them attended his inauguration. He said  impeachment proceedings cannot be ruled out against the new governor because some of them are already boasting that they have a dossier on him. “Even, if they don’t impeach him, they would frustrate him to the extent that at the end of his tenure he would have nothing to point at,” he said.

There are signs that Ngilari is moving to probe the short tenure of his political arch-rival. Ngilari’s supporters have accused Fintiri of plundering the state’s treasury. They say he ran the state as a personal estate, devoting much time and state resources to providing ‘stomach infrastructure’ to  stakeholders. The Ngilari camp queried the rationale behind the millions of naira spent by the ousted regime to acquire Prado Sports Utility Vehicles (SUV’s) for the local council chairmen in the state.

In the view of  observers, what all these boil down to, is that all is not well with the Adamawa PDP  as preparations for the November 29 governorship primaries get underway. The ruling party, has already penciled down former Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, to run on its ticket for the election.

But, would Fintiri fold his hands and watch his best chance of becoming governor slip through his fingers? Many observers see Fintiri, a 1991 graduate of History from Ahmadu Bello University Zaria, as a grassroots mobiliser, who understand the undercurrents and intrigues of politics. Others insist he is a political schemer who will leave no stone unturned in utilising any political opportunity to score a point and feather his nest.

The fate of the PDP is likely to be determined by what happens under Ngilari’s watch. The rift over next year’s election may tear Adamawa PDP into shreds, if selfish interests are allowed to prevail. A lawyer Mallam Abdulkadir Yusuf  advised  Ngilari to thread softly. His words: “The new governor should be mindful of the nature of Adamawa State as a diverse and plural society and therefore rule the people with justice, fairness and fear of God. The new governor is further advised to heal the deep wounds of mistrust and mutual suspicion inflicted on the people of the state by the illegal government of the acting governor.”

Aside from Ribadu, the PDP has more than enough contenders. The aspirants include Dr. Umar Ardo, an academician; Aliyu Idi Hong, a former Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and a protégé of Professor Jibril Aminu; Awwal Tukur, son of former national chairman of the PDP, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, and a former member of the House of Representatives; and General Buba Marwa (retired), former military administrator of Lagos State. The list also includes Marcus Gundiri, Senator Abubakar Gurei, and Mr. Ahmed Gulak, a former Presidential adviser on political affairs.

Many aspirants have been eyeing the governorship  for a long time and so it is likely to be a fierce battle. For instance, Senator Girei has been in the contest since 2003 when he insisted in participating in the primaries against the wish of the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, after other aspirants stepped down for Boni Haruna. He also aspired in 2007 alongside Nyako. Similarly, Dr. Ardo contested in the last  primaries with Nyako and challenged the result at the Supreme Court. He has been an active member of the PDP Stakeholders and Elders Forum and he was a key player in the fight to remove Nyako.

Marwa and Gundiri are not new to the Adamawa  race, having aspired under different political platforms. For instance, Marwa was a former member of the PDP. He had pitched tent with the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), because he was denied the ticket in 2007. He contested the 2011  election  under the CPC and returned to the PDP in April 2014 when he realised that he might not get a fair deal in the APC,  when the leadership of the party was handed over to former Governor Nyako.

Adamawa is home to some founding fathers of the PDP. The party had ruled the state since 1999. But, with the defection of Nyako, the state  came under the control of the APC. When the plot against Nyako gathered momentum, the Presidency  penciled Ngilari down as the heir to the throne. But, powerful stakeholders  rejected the choice, fearing that, if given the chance, the deputy could consolidate his hold and have an edge in next year’s  election. So, the Presidency had no choice but jettison the idea.

For the APC, the  situation in Adamawa provides a glimmer of hope that the party might stage a comeback. The thinking is that something may go wrong within the PDP, which would help the APC to bounce back. Indeed, the Adamawa  APC sees the recent judgment as a welcome political development. The state chairman, Madam Binta Garba, said, with the outcome of Ngilari’s case, the party was hopeful that Nyako, who was also challenging his removal, would return. “One down, we are waiting for the next judgment regarding Nyako with full hope. Once more, the judiciary deserves commendation for checking impunity,” Garba said.

The re-emergence of Ngilari, which made the by-election unnecessary, will give the party more time to prepare for the decisive encounter. Senator Muhammad Bindow, who emerged at the APC primaries  may be retained as the candidate for the contest.

Nyako’s exit has made the party’s future in Adamawa uncertain. Some insiders believe that the fortunes of the APC in the state declined as a result of Nyako’s larger-than-life influence. The decision to handover the leadership of the APC  to the former governor, following his defection from the PDP in November 2013, did not go down well with original members of the party like Marwa, Gundiri and others. Indeed, most of the APC leaders, who received Nyako when he was declaring for the APC at the height of the PDP crisis, have jumped boat for the sake of their political survival.

It was the former governor’s bid to actualise the governorship ambition of his son that put him on a collision course with major stakeholders in the Adamawa APC. This led to the exodus of such members to the PDP; even members of the state House of Assembly, who had earlier indicated interest to follow him to the new party, had to jettison the idea at the last minute when it was obvious that their interest was at stake.

The struggle for power has intensified in Kwara State among the three senatorial districts, ahead of next year’s elections. Which zone will produce the next governor? EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the jostling for the governorship by All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chieftains.

Kwara State Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed will complete his first term next year. Ahead of the general elections, the three districts have begun agitations for power shift. The two political parties-the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – are making projections into the future, based on the antagonistic clamour for power shift by competing zones.

Sources said that the governor may have kicked off a subtle re-election campaign, based on the projection. Although he has not publicly declared his intention to seek a second term, his body language has confirmed that he is pushing for continuity in office.

Ahmed is from the South Senatorial District. His kinsmen have stepped up the agitation for the retention of the slot, claiming that the governor deserves a second term. Prominent APC and PDP chieftains from the zone are united by the clampour for power. They have been making consultations and mobilising various pressure groups to realise the objective. In fact, pro-Ahmed forces in the APC have also raised a delegation to discuss the issue with the Kwara APC leader, Senator Bukola Saraki. They believe that the former governor will be disposed to his second term ambition for two reasons. Saraki was in office for two terms. Also, Ahmed has been his loyal and dependable ally. Indeed, the political leader had challenged his illustrious father, the late Waziri Olusola Saraki, to a duel in 2011 over the vexed issue of succession. While the old political warhorse threw his weight behind her beloved daughter, Senator Gbemisola Saraki, for the governorship, Dr. Bukola Saraki opted for Ahmed’s candidature. At the historic election, Ahmed defeated Senator Gbemi.

However, the governor has some hurdles to cross. A party source said that, in 2011, when the former Finance Commissioner emerged as the candidate, the feeling in the PDP, which was the ruling party, was that he would spend one term. But, Ahmed’s supporters have countered this claim, saying that he is qualified to seek re-election under the 1999 Constitution.

Last week, a source also hinted that the APC may approach the next governorship election in utter sensitivity to the reality on ground. The source, who is a legislator said that events in the PDP have influence the APC’s projections. “There is the feeling that the next PDP governorship candidate may come from Ilorin Emirate. If this is so, the APC may have to also brainstorm on the way forward. There are three factors that often shape the politics of Kwara. They are ethnicity, religion and poverty. All these are know by the political class,” he added.

Another APC chieftain said that, if the PDP decides to zone its slot to Kwara Central, the option may also be explored by the APC. There are many promising APC politicians from the Central District. However, eyes are on the former Sports Minister, Bolaji Abdullahi, who recently joined the party, following his exit from the federal cabinet. Aspirants being projected by the PDP in Kwara Central include the legal luminary, Dele Belgore (SAN), a defector from the APC, and former Vice Chancellor of University of Ilorin and Chairman of Federal Character Commission, Prof. Abdulraman Shuaib Oba.

However, Ahmed’s supporters are not threatened by the new calculations. Members of the House of Assembly from Kwara South have also thrown their weight behind the second term agenda of the governor. They are also wooing their counterparts from other districts to support the agenda. Recently, a group, Kwara South Consultative Forum, drummed support for Ahmed’s candidature. The group described him as a trusted and tested administrator, a loyal party, and an achiever. At a press conference in Ilorin, the state capital, the group appealed to Saraki support the quest for second term. “The present administration has worked enough to sustain the continuity agenda of the Saraki Administration and it should be allowed to complete its programmes in the overall interest of the Kwara people,” it said.

Members of the group also pointed out that since Kwara Central has enjoyed the slot for two terms between 2003 and 2011, power should remain in Kwara South because what is good for the goose is good for the gander. During  the recent Eid-el-Fitri in Ilorin, posters of the governor flooded the streets. They attracted worshippers as they passed through the roads to the Ilorin Praying Ground. A day before, some youths from Kwara South had pasted them on the walls.

To demonstrate their commitment to the second term agenda, political office holders from the South have formed a lobby group. The Contact and Mobilisation Committee is headed by the Commissioner for Finance, Alhaji Demola Banu. Its mission is to commence enlightenment and mobilisation drive across seven local governments in the Kwara South.The councils are Isin, Ifelodun, Oyun, Offa, Irepodun, Ekiti and Oke-Ero.

Members of Banu Committee include commissioners, special advisers, senior special assistants, special assistants, liaison officers, and youths coordinators.

However, those clamouring for power shift to the Central District are also multiplying. A party source said that the leadership of the APC is not averse to these legitimate agitations. “The party has not stopped the agitators because the agitations are healthy. The zones are competing and their claims are valid. Kwara Cenral politicians are making the claim that the district has a huge population. This is a factor in politics and elections. Kwara South people, including those in the APC and the PDP, are insisting on continuity, claiming that Kwara Central had enjoyed it for eight years. They said that the central District has been there before for 12 years. Between 1999 and 2003, the late Alhaji Muhammed Lawal from Kwara Central also served as governor. But, it is up to the parties to release nomination guidelines that will reflect these feelings,” he said.

Senator Makanjuola Ajadi and Alhaji Jani Ibrahim, an engineer, are among prominent PDP chieftains from the South District. Although they also rooting for power retention in the zone, they have conflicting agenda. Ajadi, the Presidential Adviser on National Assembly Matters is a governorship aspirant. He has said that the slot should remain in the South in the spirit of equity, fairness and justice.

However, Ajadi and Jani wants the PDP to produce the next governor from the zone.

Also, in the Kwara South APC, there is the feeling that, even after the zone has enjoyed the slot for another term, power should shift to Kwara North, which has not produced the governor since 1999. Competent sources said that Kwara South leaders have not been reaching out to their counterparts in the North. If they have adopted the collaborative approach, they would have arrived at an agreement on zoning and power shift. “If Kwara North supports Kwara South in 2015, the zone will reciprocate in 2019. This inter-zonal cooperation is also normal in politics,” added the source.

However, leaders of the APC and PDP in the North District have a separate agenda for 2015, They want the slot to be zoned to the area. But, unlike their counterparts in the South and Central districts, they are not properly coordinated.

Kwara South leaders have been hiding under the on-going voter’s registration sensitisation to drum support for the governor’s second term. The Banu Committee has taken the second term campaign to many councils, particularly Ajase-Ipo and Offa. As they enjoined the people to register to get permanent voters’ card, they also project the achievements of the governor as the basis for continuity beyond next year. They explained to the people that Ahmed will continue to build on the legacies of his leader, Senator Saraki.

In reaction, PDP and APC leaders from the North and Central have called on their party leadership to call the agitators from the South to order. According to them, the agitations are divisive and essentially destabilising. The grouse of APC chieftains from the two zones is that their colleagues from the South have not carried them along in their struggle, despite the fact that they belong to the same party and they have been working with the same governor.

A chieftain of the APC maintained that the emergence of the governorship candidate will depend on the prevailing situation during the primaries. He said, since the PDP is scheming to unseat the APC, this factor has to be taken into consideration as the ruling party prepares for primaries.

“When the time comes, stakeholders will brainstorm and take a collective decision”, he said.