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Tag: Supplementary Polls

  • Still on supplementary polls

    Writing under the heading ‘inconclusive elections’, this column last week, examined the propriety or otherwise of inconclusive elections as have been applied since the incumbent chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission INEC, Mahmood Yakubu assumed office.

    The article which was submitted before the supplementary elections in Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, Kano, Plateau and Sokoto states had queried the basis for declaring some of these elections inconclusive when in all actuality, clear winners and losers had emerged. Two typical cases that illustrated my position most poignantly were those of Benue and Adamawa states.

    In Benue State the PDP scored 410,576 while the APC scored 329,022 votes. The margin of difference was 81,554 with 121,019 votes outstanding while the PDP in Adamawa scored 367,471 votes as against 334,995 by the APC. The PDP candidate was leading with a margin of 32,476 votes with cancelled votes amounting to 40,988.

    I had argued that it was indefensible to have declared the Benue and Adamawa states governorship elections inconclusive on account of the outstanding 121,019 and 40,988 votes  because the standard ratio of voter turn-out vis a vis the total number of registered voters is put at about 30 per cent. And that if you allocate this 30 or even 50 per cent of the remaining votes to the APC candidates in both states, they will still fall short of the number with which the PDP candidates were leading them by more than 20,000 and 12,000 votes respectively.

    But allocating 50 per cent of the votes to the losing candidate is hypothetical since both candidates would at any rate, have to struggle for the remaining votes. Even then, there is nothing to indicate from the pattern of scores that the losing candidates would fare better in the supplementary polls. My conclusion was that it was nigh impossible for the supplementary election in Adamawa and Benue states to produce outcomes that could change the equation in favour of the losing candidates. The possibility was not there given the issues raised on standard percentage of voter-turnout in relation to the total number of registered voters or cancelledvoters.

    In all, there was no basis for a supplementary election in Adamawa and Benue states. These and some other double standards in the application of inconclusive elections are the basis for the suspicion that there is more to the bastardization of the principle than ordinarily meets the eyes. The supplementary elections have come and gone in these states.

    It is vital to compare the situations that prompted these inconclusive elections with the final outcomes of the supplementary elections so as to figure out what value if any, they added to the advancement of our democratic engagement. This is more so given that the first basic assumption underlying supplementary elections is to ensure that vital segments of the voting population are not disenfranchised. The second is to guarantee fairness to the losing candidate since it is envisaged he could still turn the table in his favour with the remaining votes.

    The extent these objectives were served by the results of the supplementary elections can only emerge after comparing the outcomes of the scores of the contending candidates from the main election with what they got in the supplementary polls.Such outcomes will be of immense help in appraising the capacity of the principle underlying inconclusive elections in approximating the objectives of enfranchising all segments of the voting population and guaranteeing free, fair and credible elections.

    In the result of the main election in Adamawa, the PDP was leading with a margin of 32,476 votes and in Bauchi state the PDP scored 469,512 while APC scored 465,453 votes. The margin of defeat was 4,059 while 45,312 votes were cancelled.  In Benue State, the margin of victory in favour of the PDP was 81,554 while 121,019 votes were cancelled. The result of Kano had PDP scoring 1,014,474 and APC 987,819 votes. The margin of win was 26,655 votes while cancelled votes stood at 128,572 votes. For Plateau State, APC had 583,255 and PDP 538,326. The margin of win for the APC was 44,929 votes while cancelled votes were 49,377. That of Sokoto had PDP with 489,558 votes and APC 486,145. The margin of win was 3,413 votes with 75,403 votes cancelled.

    The supplementary elections had the following outcomes: In Adamawa and Bauchi, the PDP won by further increasing the margin of votes in favour of its candidates. In Benue, PDP scored 434,473 to emerge winner while APC had 345,155 votes. In Plateau APC won with 595,582 votes while PDP scored 546,813 votes. Kano saw APC winning with 1,033,695 votes against PDP’s 1,024,713 votes. The marginal difference was 8,982 votes. For Sokoto State, PDP won after securing a total of 512,002 votes against 511, 660 votes by the APC.

    Thus, it can be seen from the outcome of the supplementary elections that safe for the case of Kano State, the party that was winning in the main election also emerged victorious in the supplementary election. That was exactly the case in Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, Plateau and Sokoto states. Kano State was an exception. And off course we are at home with how rancorous and deadly that election was.

    Reports posted by both local and international observers were very unanimous that the Kano supplementary poll was an example of what free and fair election should not be. It is clear that the stakes in Kano were for obvious reasons, very high and everything had to be put in by those controlling the coercive apparatus of state to skew its outcome to predetermined directions.

    One thing that remains clear in Kano and other states where the opposition came from the side-lines to take a lead in the elections is that the incumbent governors have lost favour with their people. It is a vivid indication that people of those states are bored with extant regimes and therefore desired a change. If after four years the verdict of the people was against them in the main election, procuring victory through the instrumentality of inconclusive elections would amount to forcing unpopular governors down their throats. How that will further the overall course of democracy is left to be conjectured.

    The direction of the will of the people was loud and clear in the main elections as amply demonstrated by the outcomes of the supplementary polls in five states. That raises question as to the heuristic value of inconclusive elections since in almost all those instances, the parties leading in the main election eventually won. So when appraised in terms of not disenfranchising vital segments of the population and ensuring free fair and credible elections, it remains doubtful if any value has been added to our electoral process given the outcomes of those elections. Above all, the results do not leave anyone with any iota of doubt that the people of those states spoke their minds clearly in the first elections.

    But we have expended huge resources both in human and material capital to bring about an end that could have been well served by the first elections. It is therefore imperative that the concept of inconclusive elections as have been applied since Yakubu assumed the leadership has to be seriously reappraised. Even in the case of Plateau where the APC candidate was clearly winning with 44, 929 margin of votes, it is unimaginable how the cancelled votes of 49,377 could produce a different outcome.

    It stands to be argued that the concept of inconclusive elections as we have seen is an avoidable duplication of efforts and waste of scarce resources. And given the very volatile nature of electoral contests on this clime, the killings, maiming and destruction of properties in some states that heralded the supplementary elections could have been comfortably avoided. Supplementary elections have proved unhelpful in terms of guaranteeing popular choice by affording all segments of the voting population the opportunity to exercise their franchise and in guaranteeing free and fair and credible elections. Rather, they have turned out an opportunity for self-help by those who wield the coercive instruments of state power skew the outcome of the polls to self-serving ends.

  • Breaking: Court orders INEC to conduct supplementary poll in Adamawa

    The Adamawa State High Court which gave an order restraining the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) from conducting the state supplementary governorship election, has lifted the order.

    In a ruling he delivered Tuesday, Justice Abdulazeez Waziri of High Court 4, also affirmed that his court has the jurisdiction to continue with the case that gave rise to the order.

    The candidate of the Movement for Restoration and Defense of Democracy (MRDD), Rev Eric Theman, had sued INEC immediately after the March 9 governorship election in the state, saying he was deprived of his right to be voted for as the logo of his party was not on the ballot paper for the election.

    He had asked for an order cancelling the election and stopping the supplementary election which INEC fixed for March 26 after it declared the election inconclusive because the margin of lead between the two leading candidates was lower than cancelled votes. The court granted the injunction stopping the conduct of the supplementary election and fixed Tuesday for determination of its jurisdiction over the case, among other things.

    At the resumed sitting Tuesday, Justice Abdulaziz Waziri lifted the order against the supplementary election but fixed Wednesday, March 27 to hear the originating motion by MRDD asking the court to nullify the governorship election conducted on March 9 on the grounds of the logo of his party not being on the ballot paper for the election.

    Reacting to the judgement, the counsel to the MRDD, Bar Mustapha, said it was perfect, as there was no point granting accelerated hearing and an order to restrain conduct of elections.

    “The main substances to our case is the removal of the MRDD party logo from ballot papers, which constitutes the disqualification from the entire election,” he said.

    The counsel to INEC, Bar Stephen Ibian, also expressed satisfaction with the ruling, especially the vacation of the order against the supplementary election.

    “We are happy over the court vacating the earlier order so that we can conduct our supplementary election in the state,” the INEC counsel said.

    The Tuesday court witnessed the joining of Ahmadu Fintiri, the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as well as the PDP, in the case as second and third defendants.

    Reacting to the development, counsel to Fintiri, Joe Kerry Gadzama (SAN), said, “Fortunately, we have today been made parties. She, the PDP governorship candidate Ahmadu Fintiri is now the second defendant while PDP is third defendant in the suit. This ruling came in late, it is a swift victory, but at the same time we are going to be vigilant it is not yet over.”

  • Updated: Bauchi election: PDP poised for victory

    The Bauchi state gubernatorial candidate of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), Sen. Bala Mohammed, is at a comfortable lead over his close rival, the incumbent Governor, Mohammed Abubakar of the All Progressives Party, (APC), at the supplementary governorship election held on the 23rd of March in Bauchi state.

    Sen. Bala Mohammed PDP, garnered a total of 6376 votes against his main opponent, incumbent Governor Mohammed Abubakar who polled 5117 votes at the rerun, with a vote margin of 1259 between both parties.

    The result of the re-run was announced in Bauchi on Sunday by the governorship election Returning Officer, Prof. Mohammed Kyari, who is a Vice Chancellor of the Modibbo Adama University of Technology, Yola.

    Earlier, during the March 9 inconclusive election, Mohammed was credited with 469,512 votes and Abubakar 465,453, with a vote margin of 4059 but the election was declared inconclusive after a Federal High Court in Abuja halted the collation and announcement of result for Tafawa Balewa Local Government.

    Governor Abubakar got a court injunction restraining INEC from continuing with the collation and announcement of election results in the State.

    Judgement on the matter had been fixed for Monday, March 25.

    The total votes scored so far by Mohammed in the 19 out of 20 LGAs has increased to 475,888 votes, while that of Abubakar is 470, 570 votes, with a difference of 5,318 votes.

    The total no of registered voters at the rerun was 22,759. Accredited voters are 12, 109, Valid votes ,11, 568 while total votes cast are 11, 979 . Rejected votes, 403.

    The rerun election was held in 36 Polling covering 29 registration areas (wards) in the 15 affected local government areas.

    Meanwhile, the Peoples Democratic Party has urged the Incumbent Governor to concede defeat and work together with the party for the progress of the state

    Speaking in a telephone interview with the Nation Correspondent, the PDP Chairman in the State, Alhaji Hamza Koshe Akuyam , said the “right thing for the Governor to do is to surrender in the face of an imminent defeat ”

    Sen.Bala Mohammed has also expressed gratitude to the people of Bauchi state for their immense support.

    “We owe our victory to the people of Bauchi who have stood very firm on the threshold of freedom and liberty and have shown that they are the icons of democracy and liberty. Words alone cannot express my appreciation to them all.” He said while addressing a press conference at the Command Guest House,Bauchi immediately the result of the rerun election was announced.

  • Supplementary polls: Attacks on media, observers, INEC mar polls – CDD

    The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) on Saturday condemned attacks on ad hoc staff, media, observers and other electoral  participants during the supplementary polls.

    It said the attacks marred the polls.

    The CDD Director, MS Idayat Hassan who was represented by an analyst of CDD, Dr  Jideofor Adibe  in Abuja, said that the group’s observers noted incidents of violence and disruption of voting process.

    Hassan said the cases were reported in Kano, Sokoto, Benue and Bauchi states where supplementary governorship and state houses of assembly elections held.

    “In Kano State, violence and disruption of polling were widespread as an army of thugs reportedly took over polling activities in several local government areas, including Nasarawa, Dala, Karaye and Gaya.

    “It is distressing that political thugs took over the elections, forcing voters to vote along a party line, stoning voters and violently disrupting the elections.  ‘’

    Hassan said that this was because Gama ward in Nasarawa LGA in Kano State was strategic to winning the supplementary elections by either of the two leading candidates.

    She said that in Sokoto, particularly in Bodinga LGA, Bodinga ward (PU11), a dispute which eventually disrupted the election, erupted between the agents of the two leading parties.

    She said it was disrupted over attempts by a party agent to assist voters in voting.

    She said that evidence suggested that the deliberate deployment of political thuggery during elections seemed to have become the norm in Nigeria.

    She said that the trend was extremely disturbing, and it was imperative to safeguard Nigeria’s  democracy by holding the perpetrators accountable.

    Hassan said that the way thuggery was instrumentalised in the elections queried the essence of the massive deployment of security agents to guard the polls, especially when brigandage ruled.

    She said in  several instances, the security agents were reported to have turned a blind eye to the act of brigandage perpetrated by the political thugs.

    She said that the electoral cycle witnessed so much intimidation, harassment and attack on voters, journalists, observers and INEC officials.

    “This unfortunate development, however, took an unprecedented turn in the Kano supplementary elections where party agents and thugs intimidated and attacked voters and observers in the course of exercising their franchise or monitoring the process.’’

    Hassan said there was a clear case of where party agents and thugs coerced and intimidated voters to vote for their candidates.

    She said that the high level of intolerance against poll monitors was not limited to observers.

    She said that in spite of several attempts to entrench peacefully electoral democracy in Nigeria, elections have been marred by upsurge of violence.

    She said that the level of impunity at which this gruesome act was being prosecuted by hoodlums at the ballot box and the inability of security agents to respond adequately and hold perpetrators accountable were sources of concern.

    Hassan said that incidences of underage voting and vote buying were also recorded where votes were sold for N10,000 and N15,000.

    She said there was need to emphasise that the act of vote buying was an offence punishable under the laws and those involved in the act should be arrested and prosecuted according to law.

    This, she said, would discourage the increasing rate of the practice (NAN)

  • Impressive turnout at Lokoja 1 supplementary poll

    The supplementary House of Assembly election is going on peacefully in the four polling units in Lokoja Local Government Area of Kogi State.

    As at 7:30am, voters were observed at the polling units watching with keen interest as Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) officials prepared the exercise.

    Our correspondent reports that the turnout was impressive at the three polling units where the house of assembly rerun election is being conducted in Ward D.

    Member representing Lokoja 1 state constituency, Alfa Imam, at the Cantonment Polling unit in Ward B, expressed satisfaction with the turnout of voters.

    He lauded the people of Lokoja for their orderly conduct.

  • Breaking:Court compels INEC to include Bayelsa units in supplementary poll

    The Federal High Court sitting in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State, has ordered the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to include omitted units in supplementary election scheduled on Saturday for Brass Constituency 1.

    The court presided over by Justice E. Inyang made the order in a motion ex parte filed by Preye Brodrick and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) against INEC.

    The court ruled that INEC should conduct supplementary elections in polling units 11-16; units 1-10 and 17 to 21 of Ward 6 in Brass Constituency 1 of the state on March 23 or any other day determined by the defendant (INEC).

    On grounds for the application, the plaintiff had told the court that elections did not hold in the affected units in line with the guidelines of INEC.

    Read Also: Updated: Tribunal sacks Osun Governor, declares Adeleke winner

    The plaintiff said: “Elections did not hold in units 1-10 and units 17-21 of Ward 6 of Brass Constituency 1 in the Bayelsa State House of Assembly elections which held on March 9, 2019.

    “By the regulations and guidelines for the conduct of the elections in 2019, the elections are deemed to be postponed and supplementary elections ought to be conducted in the said units. It is in the interest of justice to grant the prayers sought”.

    The court upheld all the grounds while making the order.

  • Benue Police guarantees security for supplementary polls

    Ahead of Saturday’s March 23rd Governorship and State Assembly elections, Benue State Police Command has assured the polls would be conducted in a violent- free and fair atmosphere.

    The Police Commissioner U.M Muri said adequate security measures have been put in place for the smooth conduct of the exercise.

    He spoke while briefing newsmen on the command’s preparedness for the polls at the command Headquarters in Makurdi.

    READ ALSO: Benue Police Command gets first female PRO

    He stated that all routes and flash points within the State have been fortified with sufficient patrol teams to protect the electorates, electoral materials and INEC staff.

    He also stated police deployment has covered all polling units, collation centres and INEC offices.

    The Police Commissioner warned violators of electoral process that severe consequences await them accordingly.

    Muri urged parents, religious leaders and traditional rulers to prevail on their subjects not to be used to disrupt the electoral process.

    He enjoined voters to come out without fear of harassment or intimidation to exercise their franchise and advised them to conduct themselves in line with the electoral act.

     

     

  •  PDP to APC: our party’ll win all supplementary polls

    The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) said yesterday it will win all the supplementary elections scheduled for Saturday.

    The polls are holding in Sokoto, Kano, Adamawa, Benue and Plateau State.

    In statement by its spokesman Kola Ologbodiyan, the electorate will resist the alleged plans by the All Progressives Congress (APC) to manipulate the elections.

    “It is ludicrous that the APC could seek to play the victim when all material facts have established that the APC militarised, perpetuated violence and unleashed mayhem in the elections so far held,” the statement said.

    The PDP claimed that a United States (U.S.) States Department’s Bureau reports showed that state apparatus of power was used to intimidate and perpetrate electoral violence in favour of the government.

    The statement reads: “The PDP is, however, undeterred in our imminent victory in the March 23 supplementary elections.

    “In Benue, it is clear that the people have rejected the APC as clearly demonstrated even in the Presidential election. Benue state has always been home to the PDP.

    “It is incontestable that our party has the largest genuine followership in all the units, wards and local government areas of the state and as such, does not need any underhand measure to secure victory in any election in the state.

    “Our winning lead of 81, 000 votes were validly delivered at the polling units and that reality will humiliate the APC as it cannot be subverted.

    “Similarly, Rivers State is an impregnable home to the PDP since 1999. The results of all the elections held in Rivers, including the House of Assembly, showed that the PDP is in control of the state. Moreover, in Rivers, the APC is a vicious interloper, which has been perpetuating violence as a means to subvert and truncate the electoral process since it has no candidate in the election.

    “In Kano, the people of the state are known to be incorruptible and had always detested leaders who are corrupt and incompetent. They have always elected governors that are acceptable to the ordinary people.

    “The incompetence of the Ganduje administration is therefore distasteful to the people and that is why they have collectively rejected the APC and rally with the PDP.

    “In Bauchi, the PDP has already been elected and this reality cannot be altered by the APC. INEC had already established that the APC compromised its official to declare Tafawa Balewa LGA as inconclusive and had restored the votes that were stolen by the APC. It   is imperative for APC to accept the fact that its bunch of broom has become famished.

    “In Sokoto, the people have given us the mandate. The constitution provides for simple majority of votes. The declared results show that our candidate clearly won and that is why our candidate has been mandated to go to the court to seek interpretation of the section of the constitution that deals with the declaration of results.

    “In Adamawa State, the APC is merely hallucinating and seeking ways to subvert the process. Its despicable resort to using a person who did not participate in the election to seek to use the courts to ambush the election is disgraceful.

    “However, INEC had since declared that it cannot be stopped from going ahead with the supplementary election where our party is already in good stead to coast to victory.”

  • INCONCLUSIVE POLLS:Who wins Kano, Sokoto, Bauchi, Adamawa, Benue Plateau?

    After 9th March 2019 Governorship and State Assembly Elections, the Independent National Electoral Commission declared six state’s exercise inconclusive. This week, electoral body announced that it would hold supplementary elections in the affected states on 23rd March 2019. In this report, Assistant Editor, Dare Odufowokan, reports on how the extra elections would be fought and won

    THE Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced during the week that it will on March 23, 2019, conduct extra elections in the six states where the March 9 Gubernatorial and State Assembly Elections were declared inconclusive. The affected states where the commission will be holding the supplementary polls are: Plateau, Sokoto, Bauchi, Benue, Adamawa and Kano.

    A statement on Tuesday by Festus Okoye, the National Commissioner and Chairman, Information and Voter Education Committee, said the commission met on Monday and reviewed the conduct of the 29 Governorship and 991 State Constituency Elections held across the country on the 9th of March 2019. The commission had declared winners in the governorship elections in only 22 states while the Returning Officers (ROs) in Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, Kano, Plateau and Sokoto states declared the elections inconclusive.

    “Consequently, the commission will conduct supplementary elections on Saturday 23rd March 2019 to conclude the process. Supplementary elections will also hold in polling units in all states where State Assembly elections were declared inconclusive and winners could not be declared,” Okoye said. Details of the constituencies including number of polling units and registered voters were published on the commission’s website last Wednesday, 13th March 2019.

    Expectedly, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have been bragging about their capacity to carry the day ahead of the March 23 Supplementary Elections to decide who will control power in the six aforementioned states. While the leadership of the APC has expressed its satisfaction with the decisions of INEC, the PDP is faulting the commission’s decision in some states like Sokoto, Adamawa and Benue.

    Both parties however vowed to win the re-run election billed for March 23 in all the states. While the APC now have control of 18 states following its victory in 13 of the 22 declared states, which is now added to the five states of Edo, Ondo, Ekiti, Kogi and Osun already in its kitty, the PDP can boast of 10 states, adding nine newly won states to Bayelsa State. The two parties are now poised to increase their tallies by adding more states on March 23.

     

    SOKOTO

    In Sokoto State, Governor Aminu Tambuwal of the PDP, who scored 489, 588, is leading his APC counterpart, Aliyu Sokoto, who garnered 486, 145 votes, with 3,413 votes. According to the details released by the electoral umpire, the two leading parties will on March 23, battle for 75,493 votes in 136 polling units in 22 local government areas of the state.

    Before the process was declared inconclusive, the two parties were laying claim to victory. But pundits say with over 75, 000 votes still at stake and the margin between Tambuwal and Sokoto standing at a meagre 3, 413, the March 23 election can tilt the final result of the governorship election in Sokoto state either way. “It is still too early to say precisely who will emerge the next governor of Sokoto state,” an analyst said.

    Factors being considered by pundits in putting the tag of ‘unpredictable’ on the ongoing contest in Sokoto State include the APC’s sterling performance during the Presidential and National Assembly Elections in the state and PDP’s unexpected comeback during the inconclusive Governorship and State Assembly polls. While the APC swept majority of the votes across the state in the earlier election, the PDP is leading in the latter with a slight margin.

    The presidential election results in Sokoto State showed that while President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC scored 490,333 votes, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the opposition PDP got 361,604 votes to place second. The APC also won the three senatorial seats in the state and pocketed majority of the House of Representatives seats. But during the Governorship and State Assembly Elections, the PDP turned the table and took the lead.

    Consequently, with the margin so slim and the votes to contest for quite much, Sokoto State remains a battleground ahead of the March 23 extra election. Reliable sources in the state told The Nation that the final result of the election in the state will be determined by some very local issues that are of importance to the ordinary people of the state. “The people are voting based on their individual convictions as to which of the two leaders, Wammakko and Tambuwal, can better their lots,” a source explained.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    ADAMAWA

    Before the process was declared inconclusive in Adamawa, the PDP, with 367,471 votes as against APC’s 334,995, was leading by 32,476 votes. The candidates of the two parties have 40,998 votes to fight for. Incumbent Governor Jibrilla Bindow of the APC and his challenger PDP Umar Fintiri will be slugging it out on March 23. Convinced that it won the election outrightly on the first ballot, the PDP has been clamouring that it should be declared winner.

    On its part, the APC, realising that it has a hard task ahead of it, has been strategising on how to turn the table on March 23. But pundits say it is a herculean task that may be very difficult to carry out. With barely 41, 000 votes up for grab and the PDP already at advantage with 32, 471, in a state that was won by the opposition party during the Presidential and National Assembly Elections, the APC may be unable to wrought any magic.

    During the Presidential Election, PDP’s Atiku Abubakar polled 412, 266 to defeat APC’s President Muhammadu Buhari, his closest challenger who scored 377,488. The results show a difference of 34,778 between them. Ironically, Buhari won 11 of the state’s 21 local government areas, while Abubakar picked the remaining 10. Earlier, the PDP presidential candidate had lost his polling unit to the APC.

    The PDP had also won two, out of the three senatorial seats in the state as well as majority of the House of Representatives seats. Ishaku Elisha Cliff of the PDP, clinched the Adamawa North senatorial seat while his party man, Yaroe Binos Dauda, emerged winner in Adamawa South. The ruling party, APC claimed victory only through Dahiru Aishatu Ahmed, who was declared winner in Adamawa Central Senatorial District.

    All these facts, and more, will be trailing both the PDP and the APC as they go to polls on March 23 to decide the final winner of the obviously keen contest. However, the APC remains disadvantaged. Aside from the huge deficit the party will be struggling to cancel, renewed infighting among its chieftains may also work against its victory at the supplementary election.

    Verdict: PDP

     

    BAUCHI

    Before INEC announced that it will, next Tuesday, be resuming collation of governorship election result in Bauchi State and may declare the winner of the poll, hitherto ruled as inconclusive, the planned re-run election in the state, earlier scheduled for March 23, from all available facts, as well as emerging indications from parts of the state where elections were to hold, remained too close to call. The PDP candidate Bala Muhammed, is currently enjoying a slight lead with 4,059 votes. At the end of the inconclusive first ballot, the PDP had 469,512 votes while the APC candidate, Governor Mohammed Abubakar, got 465,453 votes.

    According to INEC, There were 139,240 cancelled votes to that were to be contested for on March 23. The voters in the affected polling units were to decide the winner of the tense governorship contest in the northeastern state. Before the inconclusive election, opinion as to which party will win Bauchi remained divided. The state, before 2015, has been a stronghold of the PDP.

    While those banking on President Buhari’s popularity in the state predicted that Governor Abubakar will retain his seat, others, citing the local politics of the state as well as some failings of the Abubakar led APC administration, coupled with the growing popularity of the opposition PDP in the last few years, said it will be easier for the opposition party to displace APC at the gubernatorial election. Not even the victory of the APC at the presidential election changed their stance.

    Though the APC won the three senatorial seats and majority of House of Representatives slots in the state, the victory of Speaker Yakubu Dogara and a host of other PDP candidates in the state provided a platform for the opposition party to rally its forces ahead of the gubernatorial and state assembly elections. The improved performance of the PDP in the inconclusive polls, according to analysts, is a result of the local issues determining the people’s voting preferences.

    But the political scenario in Bauchi state changed once again when the electoral commission announced its latest decision concerning the guber election in the state in a press statement on Friday night reportedly after resolving some issues around the result of Tafawa Balewa local government and some polling units in Ningi local government.

    INEC did not state whether by the decision, the scheduled supplementary election on 23 March has been cancelled. According to INEC, the number of cancelled votes in four polling units in Ningi Local Government was 2,533 and not 25,330 as recorded. On Tafawa Balewa Local Government election result, where collation was disrupted by armed gangs, affecting 7 out of 11 registration areas for governorship and 6 out of 11 for state assembly elections, INEC said a committee set up, has found that the results in polling units and registration areas are “available and in safe custody”.

    INEC thus decided to resume the resumption and conclusion of the collation of results of the council area for both the governorship and state assembly elections A new collation and returning officer for Tafawa Balewa has been appointed “to continue and conclude the collation process in place of the original collation officer, who withdrew from the exercise citing threats to her life and those of her family members”. The threatened collation officer was Dominion Anosike.

    While INEC says result in Tafawa Balewa will be announced after collation, the PDP claims it garnered over 40, 000 votes in the L.G.A to APC’s less than 30, 000. It is however left to be seen if the party’s claim will tally with the result INEC will come up with. Head or tail, the governorship election in Bauchi state is a straight fight between incumbent Mohammed Abubakar of the All Progressives Congress and former minister, Bala Mohammed of the Peoples Democratic Party.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    BENUE

    At the end of the inconclusive gubernatorial election in Benue State, Governor Samuel Ortom of the PDP got 410, 576. His closest rival, Emmanuel Jime of the APC got 329, 022 at the close of the first ballot. Going by the result released by INEC, PDP’s Ortom currently leads the governorship contest with 81,554 votes. The two frontline candidates will be slugging out for 121, 011 votes in the affected polling units across the state.

    But analysts say it is going to be very difficult for APC, which also lost the last Presidential and National Assembly Elections in the state to the PDP, to overturn the deficit and win the supplementary election. “PDP will most likely go ahead to consolidate its lead at the extra polls on its way to finally retaining the troubled state in its political kitty till 2023,” an analyst said.

    Before Governor Ortom moved over to the PDP last year, Benue State was controlled by the APC. But following incessant face-offs between Ortom and the leadership of his then party as well as the presidency over the herdsmen/farmers clashes in the state, Ortom defected to the PDP and picked its governorship ticket. Many prominent chieftains of the APC, including Senator Barnabas Gemade, also dumped the party.

    The presidential candidate of the PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, had emerged winner of the Presidential Election in the state last month. The result, as announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Collation Officer Prof. Sabastine Maimako, in Makurdi showed that President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC scored 347,668 vote, while Atiku scored 355,255 votes.

    Also noteworthy is the fact that during the presidential election, APC won in 10 Local Government Areas of the state, while PDP won in 13 Local Government Areas. The party also cleared all the three senatorial seats up for grab. Former Governor Gabriel Suswam emerged as the Senator for Benue North East, Emmanuel Yisa Orker-Jev for Benue North West and ex-Minister Patrick Abba Moro in Benue South.

    Majority of the State Assembly seats declared in the state are also now in the kitty of the PDP. The unexpected loss of the Benue North West seat by the APC leader in the state, Senator George Akume, disorganised the party ahead of the Governorship and State Assembly Elections. Though local issues like non-payment of workers’ salaries and lack of infrastructural amenities worked against the PDP and Governor Ortom, it appears the many killings and attacks suffered by the state decided how they voted.

    Verdict: PDP

     

    PLATEAU

    In Plateau State, incumbent Governor Simon Lalong of the APC got 583, 255 to lead Senator Jeremiah Useni of the PDP with 44,929 votes. Useni got 538, 326. The duo will be fighting for the outstanding 49,377 votes. But many analysts say the election is APC’s to win. With only 49, 377 votes to be contested for in the affected polling units, and APC already comfortably leading with 44, 929, the opposition party looks defeated already.

    Aside from its comfortable lead, the ruling APC also pocketed majority of the state assembly seats to show its acceptance across the state. The ruling party is also benefiting from the performance of Governor Lalong, which has been adjudged by many to be commendable, especially his ability to restore and maintain peace in the troubled parts of the North Central state. His relationship with civil servants in the state is also a plus for the ruling party.

    The current result of the governorship election which shows that APC is ahead of the PDP is a departure from what obtained at the Presidential and National Assembly Elections in the state. Atiku Abubakar, the candidate of the PDP, won the presidential election in Plateau after scoring 548,665 votes. Atiku defeated his closest opponent, Muhammadu Buhari, of the APC, who scored 468, 555 votes. Atiku won in 11 local government areas while Buhari won in six LGAs of the state.

    Although the APC lost the state to the PDP during the presidential election and could only manage to win one of the three senatorial seats, with one declared inconclusive, observers of the politics of the state insist that APC looks good to win the governorship election in the end.

    Verdict: APC

     

    KANO

    Kano State is one of the states where supplementary election will be holding on March 23. There are 100, 873 votes to decide who wins the election. The PDP, with 1,014,474 votes, is in the lead while the APC, which got 987, 810, is trailing in second place. The margin in the scores of the two contenders stands at 26,664 votes. It is this calculation that informs the position of most pundits that the election is still very open for either the ruling APC or the opposition PDP to win.

    The turn of events in the Kano gubernatorial election is coming as a huge surprise to many watchers of the unfolding political drama, but analysts conversant with the voting pattern of the people of the Northwestern state say there’s nothing strange in what has happened. According to Istifanus Bako of the Centre for Democracy and Good Governance (CDGG), local issues are determining the ongoing voting patterns.

    Given that President Buhari of the APC recorded a landslide victory at the Presidential and National Assembly Elections in the state, many pundits have given the Gubernatorial and State Assembly polls to the ruling party without batting an eyelid. The presidential candidate of the APC, President Muhammadu Buhari, defeated his opponent, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku of the PDP, with 1, 073, 175 votes.

    The APC Presidential candidate garnered 1, 464, 768 votes, to defeat the PDP candidate, who garnered 391,593 votes.

    The APC also pocketed the three senatorial seats in the state to drive home its landslide victory at the Presidential and National Assembly Elections. Former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau won the Kano Central Senatorial seat, Barau Jibrin emerged the senator in Kano North while another former governor, Gaya Ibrahim Kabiru, claimed the seat in Kano South.

    But during the inconclusive Gubernatorial and State Assembly Elections, the tide changed as many voters opted to vote against Governor Abdulai Ganduje. Sources say the dollar scandal he got enmeshed in shortly before the general elections commenced has done a lot of damages to his popularity, especially among the ordinary people of the state. This appears to be working against him and the APC at the polls.

    The PDP governorship candidate in the state, Abba Kabir Yusuf, has expressed confidence that he would emerge winner of the coming governorship re-run election in the state. Kabir-Yusuf, who is the son-in-law of PDP chieftain, Rabui Kwankwaso, says Kano people want a trustworthy leader. This is just as Governor Ganduje promised that the PDP will be shocked by the outcome of the re-run elections.

    Ganduje said he was unperturbed by the wishful thinking and slapdash deportment of the PDP candidate considering what happened in the inconclusive election widely characterized by alleged vote buying and voter’s intimidation by the party. The two parties, sources claim, are working round the clock in the affected areas to ensure that they get the votes needed to merge victorious on March 23. The March 23 supplementary election will take place in 210 Polling Units constituting 88 Registration Areas.

    Verdict: Battleground