What started as a reforms-demanding protest against the Assad government in March of 2011 quickly turned into a bloody Syrian Civil War, following heavy-handed tactics by Assad – such as sending tanks into cities and having regime forces open fire on peaceful demonstrations across Syria. Seven years later, there are fears the conflict could metamorphose into the Syrian War – as international players – a mix of them – Iranian, Turkish, Russian, American, Israeli and others, fighting in different parts of the country scramble to have a “slice” of Syria and to influence the war.
Long before the uprising started, many Syrians complained about high unemployment, widespread corruption, a lack of political freedom and state repression under President Bashar al-Assad. Also, many observers have noted, the severe drought of 2007-10 that caused over a million people, mostly farming families, to migrate from rural areas into cities, thus exacerbating poverty and social unrest; coupled with the successful overthrow of oppressive Arab regimes in Egypt and Tunisia have played key role in starting the 2011 uprising against the Assad dynasty. The killing of hundreds of demonstrators and imprisonment of much more tilted the country into civil war.
The Assad regime with the help of allies in its attempts to recapture every square inch of Syrian territory has been leading according to experts a ‘siege, starve and surrender’ campaign for years. This involves the Assad government purposely overwhelming opposition-held areas with attacks that destroy vital infrastructure: hospitals, schools, markets, and even mosques – to make life for the civilian population unliveable.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a London-based watchdog with sources in Syria – about 470,000 Syrians have been killed and over a million injured since the start of the conflict. During the same period, the UN refugee agency estimates that 5.5 million Syrians have fled the country and another 6.5 million internally displaced inside Syria, which when combined makes half the country’s pre-war population. Almost 70% of Syria’s population now lives in extreme poverty. Another six million face acute food insecurity amid shortages and inflated prices, while a further 13.5 million require humanitarian assistance to survive.
The past months have seen a surge in fighting across Syria. Without a common enemy (which in 2014 appeared to be Daesh or the Islamic State), parties involved are now pursuing their own interests, with each wanting a “slice” of the country that could become part of their own sphere of influence. Turkey, with Russia’s blessing together with the Free Syrian Army, launched a military offensive against the US-supported Kurdish YPG militia in the north-western Syrian city of Afrin. Pro-government militias later joined the fight on behalf of the Kurds.
Just farther east, the Americans bombed and killed several Russian and pro-regime fighters as they attempted to capture one of largest natural gas fields in eastern Syria for the Assad regime from Kurdish forces. Also, the Turks are primed for a faceoff with the US forces stationed in the city of Manbij, if they are to continue their fight eastward as hinted by the Turkish president. While in the south of Syria, Israel and Iran clashed after an Israeli plane was shot down as it returned from a bombing run in Syria.
The Assad regime’s ongoing relentless bombardment of Eastern Ghouta (described by the UN as “Hell” on earth), the site of the notorious 2013 chemical attack and the last remaining rebel stronghold near the capital Damascus, which has killed almost a thousand people, is reminiscent of the scorched-earth campaign to retake the strategic city of Aleppo, one of the heartlands of the opposition in late 2016 by the same combination of Russian air power and Iran-supported and supplied manpower.
From all signals, as regional and international players alter the nature of the Syrian conflict that will now be in its eight-year with no end in sight, each with a complex web of shifting and deceitful geopolitics; civilians are the ones paying the price with their blood and property.
As Aljazeera rightly notes, “With much of Syria in ruins, and a population deeply traumatized by war, one thing is certain: rebuilding Syria after the war will be a lengthy, difficult process”.
- Yusuf, freelance writer and researcher is based in Jos, Plateau State.
