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Tag: Theresa May

  • All eyes on the UK and the British Pound

    On Thursday, the 8th, the United Kingdom will be holding its general election, a snap election called by the Prime Minister Theresa May, which was relying on a supposedly large lead of the Tories over the Labour party. The PM was looking after having a stronger support to her upcoming negotiation with the European Union to rule the Brexit process.

    Latest polls seem to be disappointing this strategy, as the Tories lead is getting narrower every day and some analyst are even thinking that the Tories lead might be at danger.

    All eyes are now on the currency market and on the British Pound. With the GBPUSD trading close to 1.2890 and EURGBP trading at 0.8746 as we write this note, the market seems to be pricing in a lead of around 50 seats for the Tories, which is far below May’s expectation when she called for the snap election.

    For the GBP to regain value, a wide Tory lead is needed, the wider the better. Should the election return a narrow lead for the Tories, the uncertainty might weight on the Pound against all other currencies. On the other hand, if Jeremy Corbin, the labour candidate, achieve a much better than expected result, the impact on the GBP should in theory be bearish, as the uncertainty that it could sparkle might weight on the coming negotiation for the UK exit from the EU. Should Corbyn come really close though, there could be a chance that Brexit itself could be questioned, and that would probably boost the pound (along with the Euro).

    One thing is for sure: EU is carefully following the situation in the UK as it unfolds.

    A strong Tory win would put Theresa May in the position to carry on the negotiation with the EU with less concerns and probably be more affective in safeguarding UK interests. If the polls are confirmed and Tories would come out with a weak lead, the internal process regarding Brexit will be harder for Theresa May to carry out, putting the EU in a better position to come out with the upper hand. In the unlikely event of Corbyn coming out as the winner, the whole process itself will probably be reviewed, up to a possible complete revision of it.

    It is evident that there is room for a considerable amount of volatility to hit the currency market, and not only on the GBP related pairs. Short-term volatility is unavoidable in this situation, and fears are that a flash-crash type of event, like the one that affected the pound in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, may happen again. My guess is that lesson has been learned and I would see the possibility of a flash crash as unlikely. Of course, the short-term volatility suggests cautiousness in trimming the exposure to the pound in the immediate aftermath of the voting, as the first results will be made public.

    From a technical point of view, we can have a look at the chart of the GBPUSD:

    Prices have recovered from the lows at 1.20 and lately they broke out from 1.27, a level that trapped the prices for over 6 months, but now seems to be stalling around 1.29.

    In this situation, key levels would be, in the short term , 1.30 on the upside and 1.2680, which would signal a return to the wide side market mentioned above. On the mid-term, only the Pound regaining 1.35 would be a real bullish signal.

    Not only the Pound should be under investors’ radar though, as also the EUR could be impacted, if Corbyn would come up very close to Theresa May. In this event, the European common currency could reflect the fact that May’s negotiation with the EU might be weakened by an unstable lead, giving the EU the possibility to strike a much better deal.

    Personally, I think that nor the UK and the EU should seek any hard Brexit process and deal, as it is not in the interest of neither of the two economies, but the EU stance is led by the perceived need to show the other member states that leaving the EU would be harmful, more that the mere economic reasoning. I find it difficult to adhere to the reasoning behind calling a snap election at this point in time: the mainstream media have kept bombarding the public opinion with catastrophic forecasts for the UK as the outcome of Brexit: Theresa May took a very big risk and could end up in a much worse position that the one she holds at the moment.

    We at Alpari Research & Analysis will be closely monitoring the situation, and our advice, as always, is to carefully assess the risk involved in the short-term volatility that will most probably hit the market as soon as the first results will be made public, trimming the exposure to the GBP, and In part to the EUR, accordingly.

    Roberto d’Ambrosio (CEO Alpari Research & Analysis Limited).

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  • Butchers give PM May the cold shoulder at campaign stop

    Butchers give PM May the cold shoulder at campaign stop

    British Prime Minister Theresa May was met with a chorus of boos and shouts of “vote Labour” as she visited London’s biggest meat market in the early hours of the final day of the election campaign.

    May, who is widely expected to win re-election in Thursday’s vote, was visiting the Smithfield Market in central London with her husband Philip when several butchers started booing, jeering and yelling “vote Labour”.

    Continuing to smile, the prime minister shook hands with other butchers who were dressed in white on one of the market’s many stands.

    May called the snap election in April in a bid to increase her majority and strengthen her hand for the Brexit talks but her campaign has struggled in recent weeks due to a series of policy missteps.

  • British PM resumes campaigning three days before national election

    British PM resumes campaigning three days before national election

    British Prime Minister Theresa May resumes campaigning on Monday after a deadly militant attack on London Bridge.

    May said Britain must be tougher in stamping out Islamist extremism after three knife-wielding assailants rammed a hired van into pedestrians on London Bridge and stabbed others nearby, killing seven people and injuring 48.

    After the third militant attack in Britain in less than three months, May said Thursday’s election would go ahead but said Britain had been far too tolerant of extremism.

    “Violence can never be allowed to disrupt the democratic process,” May, who served as interior minister from 2010 to 2016, said outside her Downing Street office.

    Islamic State, which is losing territory in Syria and Iraq to an offensive backed by a U.S.-led coalition, said its militants were responsible for the attack, according to the group’s media agency Amaq.

    Islamist militants have carried out scores of deadly attacks in Europe, Russia, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and the United States over the past two years.

    In an early morning raids in east London, British counter-terrorism police detained more people on Monday.

    Police arrested 12 people in the Barking district of east London following the attack, though one was later released.

    Police have not released the names of the attackers and British newspapers refrained from identifying the men.

    It was not immediately clear how the attack would impact the election, though the issue of security has been thrust to the forefront of the campaign after the London Bridge and Manchester attacks.

    The campaign was suspended for several days last month when a suicide bomber killed 22 people at a concert by Ariana Grande in Manchester.

    Grande gave an emotional performance on Sunday at a benefit gig in the city for the victims of the attack, singing with a choir of local schoolchildren, including some who had been at her show.

    Before the London Bridge attack, May’s gamble on a June 8 snap election had been thrust into doubt after polls showed her Conservative Party’s lead had collapsed in recent weeks.

    While British pollsters all predict May will win the most seats in Thursday’s election, they have given an array of different numbers for how big her win will be, ranging from a landslide victory to a much more slender win without a majority.

    Some polls indicate the election could be close, possibly throwing Britain into political deadlock just days before formal Brexit talks with the European Union are due to begin on June 19.

    May called the snap election in a bid to strengthen her hand in negotiations on Britain’s exit from the European Union, to win more time to deal with the impact of the divorce and to strengthen her grip on the Conservative Party.

    If she fails to beat handsomely the 12-seat majority her predecessor David Cameron won in 2015, her electoral gamble will have failed and her authority will be undermined both inside the Conservative Party and at talks with 27 other EU leaders.

    May said the series of attacks were not connected in terms of planning and execution, but were inspired by what she called a “single, evil ideology of Islamist extremism” that represented a perversion of Islam and of the truth.

    As a former interior minister, May’s record on security is also under scrutiny, she reduced police numbers and oversaw the domestic intelligence agency, MI5.

    Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn criticised May, who was interior minister from 2010 to 2016, for cutting police numbers during her tenure in charge of the interior ministry.

    “The mass murderers who brought terror to our streets in London and Manchester want our election to be halted. They want democracy halted,” Corbyn said in Carlisle, northern England.

    “They want their violence to overwhelm our right to vote in a fair and peaceful election and to go about our lives freely.”

    “That is why it would be completely wrong to postpone Thursday’s vote, or to suspend our campaigning any longer.”

  • London attacks: U.S. adopts extra security measures

    London attacks: U.S. adopts extra security measures

    President Donald Trump has called for vigilance and what he termed “extra level of safety” following the multiple terrorist attacks in London on Saturday night.

    Trump was briefed of the incident by the National Security Adviser, Herbert McMaster, according to the White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer.

    The terror incidents reportedly left unconfirmed number of people dead and injured after van ploughs into pedestrians on London Bridge and Borough Market.

    A third incident at Vauxhall, was, however said to be an isolated attack unconnected with the two other terror attacks.

    Trump tweeted shortly after the attacks: “We need to be smart, vigilant and tough.

    “We need the courts to give us back our rights.

    “We need the Travel Ban as an extra level of safety!

    “Whatever the United States can do to help out in London and the U. K., we will be there – WE ARE WITH YOU. GOD BLESS!”

    The New York Police Department (NYPD) Counter-terrorism bureau said it was “deploying officers to heavily-travelled pedestrian locations across the city”.

    NYPD spokesman Peter Donald said: “We’re monitoring the situation in London and we’re in touch with British authorities”.

    NYPD said on its Twitter handle on that: “There are no specific, credible threats to NYC.

    “Go about your Sat. night, NYPD cops are protecting you. Our prayers are with all in London”.

    The U.S. Department of State also said: “We stand ready to provide all possible consular assistance should we become aware of any affected U.S. citizen.

    “We strongly encourage U.S. citizens in the United Kingdom to directly contact concerned family members in the United States to advise them of  your safety”.

    British Prime Minister Theresa May had earlier confirmed the attack as potential acts of terrorism.

    “Following updates from police and security officials, I can confirm that the terrible incident in London is being treated as a potential act of terrorism.

    “This is a fast moving investigation. I want to express my huge gratitude to the police and emergency services who are on the scene.

    “Our thoughts are with all those who are caught up in this tragic event”.

  • G7 leaders brace for clash with Trump on trade, climate

    G7 leaders brace for clash with Trump on trade, climate

    Leaders of the world’s rich nations braced for contentious talks with Donald Trump at a G7 summit in Sicily on Friday after the U.S. president lambasted NATO allies for not spending more on defense and accused Germany of “very bad” trade policies.

    Trump’s confrontational remarks in Brussels, on the eve of the two-day summit in the Mediterranean resort town of Taormina, cast a pall over a meeting at which America’s partners had hoped to coax him into softening his stances on trade and climate change.

    The summit will kick off with a ceremony at an ancient Greek theater perched on a cliff overlooking the sea, before the leaders of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the U.S. begin talks on terrorism, Syria, North Korea and the global economy.

    “We will have a very robust discussion on trade and we will be talking about what free and open means,” White House economic adviser Gary Cohn told reporters late Thursday.

    He also predicted “fairly robust” talks on whether Trump should honor a U.S. commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

    Trump, who dismissed man-made global warming a “hoax” during his election campaign, is not expected to decide at the summit whether he will stick with the Paris deal, negotiated under his predecessor Barack Obama.

    Even if a decision is not forthcoming, European leaders have signaled that they will push Trump hard on the Paris emissions deal, which has comprehensive support across the continent.

    “This is the first real opportunity that the international community has to force the American administration to begin to show its hand, particularly on environment policy,” said Tristen Naylor, a lecturer on development at the University of Oxford and deputy director of the G20 Research Group.

    The summit, being held near Europe’s most active volcano, Mount Etna, is the final leg of a nine-day tour for Trump, his first foreign trip since becoming president, that started in the Middle East.

    On Thursday in Brussels, with NATO leaders standing alongside him, he accused members of the military alliance of owing “massive amounts of money” to the U.S. and NATO, even though allied contributions are voluntary.

    According to German media reports, he also condemned Germany for “very bad” trade policies in meetings with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk, signaling that he would take steps to limit the sales of German cars in the U.S.

    EU officials declined to confirm the reports.

    Trump will not be the only G7 newcomer.

    French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni and British Prime Minister Theresa May will also be attending the elite club for the first time.

    May is expected to leave a day early, following Monday’s suicide bombing at a concert in northern England that killed 22 people and was allegedly carried out by a young Islamist militant of Libyan descent who grew up in Britain.

    Italy chose to stage the summit in Sicily to draw attention to Africa, which is 225 km from the island at its closest point across the Mediterranean.

    No fewer than half a million migrants, most from sub-Saharan Africa, have reached Italy by boat since 2014, taking advantage of the chaos in Libya to launch their perilous crossings.

    Italy is eager for wealthy nations to do much more to help develop Africa’s economy and make it more appealing for youngsters to stay in their home countries.

    The leaders of Tunisia, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria and Kenya will join the discussions on Saturday to say what should be done to encourage investment and innovation on their continent.

    One country that won’t be present is Russia.

    It was expelled from the group in 2014 following its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.

    Trump called for improved ties with Moscow during his election campaign.

    Accusations from U.S. intelligence agencies that Russia intervened in the U.S. election to help Trump, and investigations into his campaign’s contacts with Russian officials, have hung over his four-month-old presidency and prevented him from getting too close to Moscow.

    On Thursday, the Washington Post and NBC News reported that Trump’s son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner was under scrutiny by the FBI because of his meetings with Russian officials before Trump took office.

  • Authorities believe they know identity of Manchester attacker

    Authorities believe they know identity of Manchester attacker

    British authorities believe they know the identity of the Manchester suicide bomber who killed 22 people including children at a pop concert, Prime Minister Theresa May said on Tuesday.

    May added that the “cowardice of the attacker was met by the bravery of the emergency services and the people of Manchester” in remarks given at Downing Street, as cited by the Press Association.

    “This was among the worst terrorist incidents we have ever experienced in the United Kingdom,” she said.

    “And although it is not the first time Manchester has suffered in this way, it is the worst attack the city has experienced and the worst-ever to hit the north of England.”

    NAN reports that 22 people, including some children, were killed and 59 were wounded when a suicide bomber struck as thousands of fans streamed out of a concert by U.S. singer Ariana Grande in the English city of Manchester on Monday.

    May called an emergency meeting with intelligence chiefs on the deadliest militant assault in Britain since four British Muslims killed 52 people in suicide bombings on London’s transport system in July 2005.

    Witnesses related the horror of the blast which prompted a stampede just as the concert ended at Europe’s largest indoor arena

  • Britain faces dire consequences if it fails to secure good Brexit deal-May

    Britain faces dire consequences if it fails to secure good Brexit deal-May

    British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Thursday there would be dire consequences for Britain if it failed to get a good Brexit deal, adding “the coming five years would be among the most challenging in our lifetime”.

    May made the remarks during a speech presenting her Conservative Party’s policy pledges to voters ahead of a June 8 parliamentary election the party is widely expected to win.

    “Make no mistake, the central challenge we face is negotiating the best deal for Britain in Europe,” May said.

    “If we fail, the consequences for Britain and for the economic security of ordinary working people will be dire.

    “If we succeed, the opportunities ahead of us are great.”

    In another development, May said she stood within the mainstream of British Conservative party thought, rejecting the suggestion that she had a distinctive personal approach or wanted to be compared with Margaret Thatcher.

    “There is no ‘Mayism’. I know you journalists like to write about it.

    “There is good solid Conservatism, which puts the interests of the country and the interests of ordinary working people at the heart of everything we do in government,” she said at a news conference to launch the Conservatives’ policy pledges before a national election she called for June.

    The manifesto included a number of curbs on businesses, which contrast with the free-market approach taken by Thatcher, regarded by many Conservatives as their most successful leader since World War

     

  • Britain dismisses report of worsening relations between May, Hammond

    Britain’s Defence Minister on Thursday dismissed a Times newspaper report suggesting that relations between Prime Minister Theresa May and her finance minister, Philip Hammond, had deteriorated.

    The Times newspaper said relations between the teams of the two most senior members of government had deteriorated following a series of disagreements over policy and presentation ahead of a June 8 election.

    Fallon was however asked about the front page report and he said he would have thought John you would be the last person to fall for such tittle-tattle.

    “Philip Hammond, (interior minister) Amber Rudd, Theresa May, (foreign minister) Boris Johnson and I in the cabinet are working together,’’ he said.

  • British PM to call snap election for June 8

    United Kingdom Prime Minister, Theresa May, has announced plans to call a snap general election on June 8.

    She said Britain needed certainty, stability and strong leadership following the European Union referendum.

    Explaining the decision, Mrs. May said: “The country is coming together but Westminster is not.”

    Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said his Labour Party wanted the election, calling it a chance to get a government that puts “the majority first.”

    There will be a vote in the House of Commons on Wednesday to approve the election plan, the BBC reports.

    The prime minister needs two thirds of MPs to vote in favour to hold a vote before the next scheduled election date of 2020.

    Explaining her change of heart on an early election, Mrs. May said: “I have concluded the only way to guarantee certainty and security for years ahead is to hold this election.”

    She accused Britain’s other political parties of “game playing”, adding that this risks “our ability to make a success of Brexit and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country.”

    “So we need a general election and we need one now. We have at this moment a one-off chance to get this done while the European Union agrees its negotiating position and before the detailed talks begin.”

     

  • British govt sets out Brexit plan to ‘end EU supremacy’

    Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Government set out its plans on Thursday for a “Great Repeal Bill” to incorporate EU law into British law and “end the supremacy of EU lawmakers” after Britain leaves the European Union.

    The government white paper “lays out a pragmatic and principled approach to converting EU law into UK law on the day we leave the EU — giving businesses, workers and investors as much certainty as possible,” Brexit Secretary David Davis told parliament.

    “It also means the negotiation over our future economic partnership with the EU will be unlike any other in history, because we will start from a point of exact equivalence,” Davis said.

    “After that, it will be for parliament to determine what EU legislation it wants to amend, repeal or improve — finally ending the supremacy of EU lawmakers,” he said.

    The white paper was published one day after May formally notified Brussels of Britain’s intention to leave the EU, in a letter triggering two years of Brexit negotiations.

    Ahead of the publication, the library of the House of Commons, parliament’s elected lower house, warned that assimilating EU law into British law was “potentially one of the largest legislative projects ever undertaken in the UK.”

    The parliamentary library estimated that more than 13 per cent of primary and secondary legislation enacted in Britain between 1993 and 2004 is EU related.

    Human rights and trade union groups have raised concerns that some rights could be eroded in the legal transition.