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Tag: Third Force

Ex-President’s ‘third force’ takes off

ALLIES of former President Olusegun Obasanjo converged yesterday on the Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja for the launch a movement – the Coalition for Nigeria (CN).

Ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo had in a special press statement, pushed for the formation of the movement as a ‘third force’ to complete the political space with the ruling All Progressives Party (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

The CN promoters spoke of plans to mobilise membership enrolment through online platforms.

Two former governors, Olagunsoye Oyinlola (Osun) and Donald Duke (Cross Rivers), who led the ‘like minds’ to unveil the CN addressed the audience.

They said the youths would drive the membership recruitment at all levels. They also confirmed Chief Obasanjo’s support for the coalition.

Besides the two former governors, other notable faces at the at the Yar’Adua Centre venue of the launch, include: former PDP national chairman, Dr. Ahmadu Ali, former Buhari loyalist and Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) chieftain, Buba Galadima, son of the late Prime Minister, Dr. Abdujalil Tafawa Balewa and Obasanjo’s associate, Otunba Oyewole Fasawe, who opted to sit in the audience.

During the question and answer session, a member of the audience asked why the coalition is not coming straight out as a political party.

Author and social media activist Gimba Kakanda Prince Oyinlola why the movement “is coming to legitimise the good and the bad in all a former president stands for”.

Gimba asked: “How can we move forward in fixing Nigeria if a body like this, as inspired by the military command of a politician, whom we blame for being part of the problem, appears to have been suggested by him as a way of legitimising his own political legacy and bad precedent that could be a moral burden on the conscience of Nigerians?”

Prince Oyinlola explained that the youths, who will lead the movement and determine their own leaders at various levels, would play a role in deciding whether the coalition transforms into a political party.

He said: “We are not a political party – at least for now but if and when, through the arrangements and decisions of the leaders that you are going to put in place, we come to the agreement that we metamorphose into a political party, it must be a collective decision.

“To say that we are legitimising the former president is a bit off the mark. There was an article in the New York Times sometimes ago which allude to the fact that we are somehow docile in this country; there is no one who can fault the contents and the issues raised in Obasanjo’s letter, forget the messenger, let’s discuss the message.

“If you are saying that we are just legitimising (Obasanjo), are we supposed to just sit there, folding our hands and watching?

“I think that what he (Obasanjo) has done is to rouse us from our slumber to the reality of what is happening to Nigerians and for us to take charge and take action; are there no other leaders looking on at things going wrong in this country?

“I think we should instead, give kudos to him (Obasanjo) for having the courage to be able to address Nigerians on issues that call for immediate action and attention.”

The masters of ceremony – Remi Damola, Omoruyi Edoghere and Genevieve Anthony –urged the youths to buy into the project by joining the coalition, register to vote and help take back rescue the country.

The former Osun governor asserted his preparedness to quit the ruling APC and relinquish his position as the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) Board Chairman for the CN cause.

In his closing remarks, Duke stressed that the nation’s terrible condition must not be prolonged, adding that it is only when millions of Nigerians heed the clarion call and constitute themselves into a ‘critical mass’ that the CN can make strong impact.

Duke said: “This endeavor is timely because there were several movements in the offing and this coalition has to bring them all together if we want to make things work.

“More importantly, we have the dire consequences of now in our nation; where we are today, if you project another three to four years, the disaster would be worse, it is not going to get better. We must all come together to change the narrative.”

February 1, 2018
Which way for Third Force?

In his epistle to President Muhammadu Buhari, former President Olusegun Obasanjo advocated what he called a Third Force under the auspices of the Coalition of Nigeria (CN) to take the country out of the doldrums. The movement, he submitted, ‘’must be a coalition for democracy, good governance, social and economic well-being and progress. A coalition to salvage and redeem our country”.

Obasanjo was not done yet. ‘’The CN will be a movement that will drive Nigeria up and forward. It must have a pride of place for all Nigerians, particularly for our youths and our women. It is a coalition of hope for all Nigerians for speedy, quality and equal development, security, unity, prosperity and progress. It is a coalition to banish poverty, insecurity and despair’’. These are lofty ideals, which all who love Nigeria should key into. The question is : who will drive the process? In a country of over 180million people, we have more than enough human resources to push the Obasanjo idea. But will those already entrenched in the system allow fresh voices to have their say in this new Nigeria that Obasanjo is clamouring for?

A Third Force, a Third Way or a Third Eye or by whatever name it may be called, should comprise those not tainted by the kind of politics we have been playing since the sixties. This may be a tall order considering the penchant of our politicians to dominate everything. Obasanjo too may not be as neutral as he is portraying himself now in the whole matter. Can he honestly say he has not been working underground with some people before he issued his statement on ways of ‘’building a united and socially cohesive country’’? If he has not been consulting people before now, then creating his so-called Third Force may not be that easy. This is not to say that it is not possible.

One week after his call, some people close to him have picked up the gauntlet. On Tuesday, they gathered at the Abuja home of former Osun State Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola to hammer out the vision and mission of CN. Ten governors, with seven coming from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) are said to have indicated interest in joining CN. Some senators have also lined up to be part of the movement. Yesterday, the CN was launched in Abuja, but as I write this on Tuesday night, it was not yet clear who its national leader is. For now, Oyinlola is coordinating its activities. But can anything good come from this CN considering the kind of people it is parading?

These are people who were at the helm of affairs in the country in the past and performed poorly. Can we trust them again with the leadership of our country? Is this the Third Force Obasanjo wrote about? Will Obasanjo associate with these faces of CN?

This CN parades Oyinlola and former Cross River State Governor Donald Duke, among others. All these people have been part of the country’s problems for years and honestly speaking they cannot be part of the solution. If they are coming out now to push the CN cause, their track record should speak for them. What were their achievements while in office? If they can show what they did in the past, they would have scaled the first hurdle in their dreams of building a new Nigeria.

This is not the CN Obasanjo is pushing for. According to him, ‘’the CN, as a movement, will be new, green, transparent and must remain clean and always active, selflessly so’’. Does the Oyinlola-led CN have these attributes? Is the movement green? Is it new or only just new in name? Is it transparent? Will it remain clean and always be selflessly active? What Nigeria desires is new wine in new skin, not old wine in new bottle.

February 1, 2018
What manner of third force?

What manner of ‘movement’ is being launched today in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT)? Can the coalition fly? What are its prospects? Can it overtake the discredited Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and abort the dream of the crisis-ridden All Progressives Congress (APC) to retain federal power in next year’s elections?

In the opinion of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, the Muhammadu Buhari administration has failed. President Buhari, he advised, should not seek re-election next year. Also, both the APC and the PDP should not produce his successor. His reason: the two parties have outlived their usefulness.

Obasanjo’s remedy is that only a coalition of ‘willing’ Nigerians can salvage the country in 2019. As his associates throw up the ‘Third Force,’ can the new group make a difference? Will it change geo-political calculations? Does the so-called ‘Coalition for Nigeria (CN) offer hope?

Indisputably, Dr. Obasanjo may have done a scanty spade work before unfolding his agenda. Thus, the movement is springing up in a hurry, barely a week after he released his highly inflammable “special statement.” Unlike the PDP, which metamorphosed into a virile party from the G-34, and the APC, which came into existence after critical deliberations and agreement involving the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and sections of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and PDP), the CN emerged from Obasanjo’s bedroom.

Observers believe that the new political group may be facing a gloomy future. At birth, it is jaundiced. Nigerians were taking aback by its composition. It is the same of the same. There is no line of demarcation. There is no fresh blood. It is still the old wine in a new bottle. In the final analysis, only aggrieved acolytes of the former leader are involved in the new show. Thus, public enthusiasm is waning.

He who comes to the equity must come with clean hands. The key leaders of the CN are politicians who were associated with PDP’s 16 years of failure. These men of yesteryear shared in the blame for the impunity that had characterised governance. The spent forces, rejected party functionaries and disgruntled PDP stalwarts are seeking relevance. But, Nigerians are not assailed by collective amnesia. Since the motivation is from Obasanjo, many credible Nigerians may distance themselves from the enterprise because of the former president’s perceived history of personal agenda and self-interest decorated in the garb of public yearning and aspiration.

Do the arrowheads parade intimidating credentials of honour and integrity? What ideology is driving them? The proxy leader is a beneficiary of election rigging, who was kicked out by the temple of justice for vote stealing. He will be working in tandem with a vocal scholar and an expert in prevarication from the Northcentral, a former governor from the Southeast struggling to bounce back into reckoning on the false platform and another ex-governor from the Northwest, who is standing trial for corruption.

The implication is that, although Obasanjo has used his stature to swing public opinion against the Buhari administration at a time Nigerians are protesting the mishandling of farmers/herdsmen clashes in Benue and some other states, his message may not be swallowed hook, line and sinker as no credible alternative platform is being offered to compete for power with the two main parties.

Since the CN is made up of PDP leaders, what can they offer that the PDP has not offered? Are CN members the messiahs Nigerians are expecting? How popular are they in their states? Can Dr.Obasanjo successfully mobilise the people of his ward in Abeokuta during elections? Who will listen to the new foot soldiers? Can the coalition become a formidable party? Can it even meet the criteria for registration by the electoral commission before next year’s polls?

If Nigerians feel that the third force may not lead them to the promised land, they may start to have a rethink. In fact, many critical minds are re-dissecting Obasanjo’s statement. Although the Benue killings left a sour taste in the mouth, the government has not completely failed the nation in the area of security. The recent killing of troublers of peace in the Southsouth, including ‘Gen.’ Don Wanny, meant that a lip service is not paid to security. Besides, Boko Haram is being pummeled.

Also, many now realise that Obasanjo’s comment on the economy is not totally true. While it is true that Nigerians are complaining about hardship, it is not because the government is closing its eyes. Experts have pointed out that a significant leap has been recorded in the government’s bid to revatalise the economy. The nation’s foreign reserve is increasing. The forex regime is attracting investors. Electricity is becoming stable. Efforts are on to revatalise the railways. More importantly, there is prospect of food security. The Buhari administration’s achievement in agriculture cannot be ignored. Today, rice importation is becoming a thing of the past.

Will Nigerians close their eyes to these achievements and prospects and risk their future in the hands of an inexplicable coalition teleguided by Obasanjo?

January 31, 2018
I’ve no relationship with “Third Force” –AITEO CEO Peters

Frontline businessman, Mr. Benedict Peters, yesterday denied social media reports identifying him as a major sponsor of the evolving political movement, the Third Force.

Peter, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian energy conglomerate AITEO, declared in a statement that he is not “a financier of the said organisation or any socio-political partisan association or political party in Nigeria or anywhere else in the world.”

He said that as an international businessman of repute, he has “deliberately stayed away from politics preferring, instead, to focus and give my all to the development of my business interests across the African continent.”

He added” Neither I, my immediate family or companies in which I have interests, would embark on the sponsorship of a movement which is unknown to us.

“This would be crass, irresponsible and inconsistent with the commercial prudence that a businessman of my accomplishment would consider.

“To, therefore, name me as a financier of such a venture is not only vile and callous, it is insensitive and inconsiderate.

“It is a sad reminder of the length that some people, manipulating the malleable, depraved and downright dishonest elements of the media, can go (for reasons best known to them) in their despicable and contemptible attempts to continue to pitch me against the government of the day in Nigeria!”

He said the authors of the report were only out to malign him and former Chief Olusegun Obasanjo by premising the rumour of their relationship, which according to him, spans over 30years.

“I confirm that I know the former President very well,” he said.

“He is like a father to me. He was a friend of my father, the late Chief F.B Peters and has a relationship with my family that dates back over 30 years.

January 28, 2018
2019: How far can a ‘Third Force’ go?

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s call for formation of a new political coalition has raised fresh issues on the fate of existing parties, 2019 General Elections and Nigerian political future. Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu, reports on the viability of floating such a new political coalition that would possibly defeat the existing parties in the next general elections scheduled to hold barely a year away

FORMER President Olusegun Obasanjo ignited fresh fire on Nigeria’s political turf last week Tuesday when, through a Special Press Statement, he advised President Muhammadu Buhari not to recontest for the office in 2019.

He also carpeted both the ruling political party, All Progressives Congress (APC) and the leading opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and suggested the formation of a new political alliance as the way forward for Nigeria.

“I only appeal to brother Buhari to consider a deserved rest at this point in time and at this age… I have had occasion in the past to say that the two main political parties – APC and PDP – were wobbling. I must reiterate that nothing has happened to convince me otherwise. If anything, I am reinforced in my conviction,” he said, adding, “We have only one choice left to take us out of Egypt to the Promised Land. And that is the coalition of the concerned and the willing – ready for positive and drastic change, progress and involvement.”

He also gave the name of the proposed organisation as Coalition for Nigeria (CN) and explained briefly what would be its aims and operational modalities.

Since then, the political theatre has caught fire as Nigerians at various levels and interests have reacted in diverse ways. While political stakeholders have so far responded with uncontrolled sentiment and emotion, applauding or condemning the proposal, depending on their current political stance and future interests, informed analysts who spoke to The Nation during the week have expressed concern over the timeline as they wonder how viable it could be to set up a new political coalition today that would possibly defeat both the ruling APC, PDP and the other existing political parties in a general election that is scheduled to hold barely a year away.

Anger, accolade, dismissals

As would be expected, the letter elicited immediate, though mixed reactions from Nigerians. Incidentally, both Buhari’s supporters and opponents have been reacting passionately.

For example, while former Governor of Abia State and APC chieftain, Orji Uzor Kalu, described Obasanjo’s assessment of Buhari’s administration as ‘unfair,’ reiterating his achievements, people like Senator Shehu Sani, an APC senator representing Kaduna Central reportedly hailed the former president, urging Buhari to accept the advice and bow out. Also, while some angry Nigerians lashed out that both Buhari and Obasanjo have expired and should go home and have well-deserved rest, some Buhari defenders alleged that it was a distraction fired by a hidden selfish agenda that is not in the interest of Nigerians and Nigeria.

As the resultant verbal exchanges rage, the Minister of Information, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, in his official response, however said the Federal Government has “no reason to believe that former President Obasanjo has any motive beyond the well-being of the nation in issuing his Special Press Statement. We have also taken his admonition in good faith, and we thank him most sincerely for taking time off his busy schedule to pen such a long statement.”

The virulent reactions aside, critical observers, aware of Obasanjo’s antecedent, said both the advice and the proposal would certainly impact greatly on the 2019 election campaigns. “From the way Chief Obasanjo spoke, it is obvious he has concluded plans for the new political party he wants to take over in 2019. He has the name, the logo, the aims and all that. What is remaining, if you ask me, is to find out the viability of the envisioned political party. The question I am asking is if we are going to witness a repeat of what happened in 2015. Given the level of disillusionment in the polity, I have no doubt that a well-positioned political movement will make unbelievable impact between now and 2019. Of course, if the people behind the new project are serious minded and if it is a well spread movement, anything can happen in 2019,” said Dr. Maxwell Uchendu, a political scientist and the Director of Hilltop Institute.

Any connection with Okuniyi’s NIM?

Shortly after Obasanjo made his proposal open, critics alleged that he had perfected plans to impose another president on the nation and as such may have been working underground long before now. The former President’s alleged recent consultations with many top political stakeholders across the country in the last months were advanced as proof of the allegation.

As a result of this, concerned analysts have been asking questions like: Who are the people in the envisaged coalition? Are they not the same faces we are used to in APC, PDP and the other old political parties, or will Obasanjo float a movement made up of fresh politicians and professionals who have not been dented in politics?

It would be recalled that just late last November, Mr. Olawale Okuniyi, convened a Political Summit Group in Abuja, where some known political leaders like the former Governor of Cross River State, Donald Duke, along with top professionals like prominent lawyer, Olisa Agbakoba (SAN) and Prof Tom Utomi of Lagos Business School, floated a new political organisation with the name, the “National Intervention Movement.” While Okuniyi was named the Director-General, Agbakoba emerged the Leader of the National Steering Committee of the organisation. Other members of the committee are Donald Duke, Prof. Pat Utomi, Dr. Kemi George, Isa Aremu, Dr. Abduljalil Tafawa Balewa, Rabiu Isaiku Rabiu and Senator Abubakar Gada.

Explaining the vision and the aim of the movement, the Director-General, Okuniyi, said, “We deliberated on reviewing the problem of Nigeria which is more political than economic. We decided it is better to find a collective solution to the problem that we should initiate a national political movement.

“We decided to set up a National Intervention Movement; we are to merge with all other formations to find this solution.”

Coming barely a month after the NIM, observers are already asking if there is any connection between the Okuniyi’s National Intervention Movement (NIM) and the proposal of a national coalition, named Coalition Nigeria (CN) now being proposed by Obasanjo.

How far can CN go?

Primary investigation carried out by The Nation during the week shows that the planed coalition is no longer a mere vision. It is being concretised as former associates of Obasanjo and some disgruntled chieftains of both PDP and APC have begun late night meetings, evidently to be part of the new vision.

Already, some media reports said the political movement promoted by former Nigerian president, Olusegun Obasanjo, Coalition for Nigeria, would be launched January, 31 and that it is currently coordinated by a former Governor of Osun State, Olagunsoye Oyinlola, a known associate of Obasanjo. The reports said Oyinlola would serve as the National Spokesperson of the movement and that he would work with other spokespersons at different levels.

But as Uchendu explains, no matter the efforts made by the associates to concretise the plan, they will have to contain with some obvious hurdles that must be overcome by such a late comer in a major election. “Of course, it will not be easy. One, the supporters of the sitting president will not just sit down and watch them take over Aso Rock. No. What that means is that the campaigns would be rough and tough,” he said, adding; “As you said in your question, it is a fact that any new political organisation just before a major election would have to race against time. The 2019 election will likely hold in February of 2019, roughly 12 months from now, so the coalition must do more work than the other parties. Don’t forget that the processes that will lead to the emergence of candidates is likely to commence latest by June, and we are yet to see the members of the new group,” he said.

What Obasanjo said

ONLY appeal to brother Buhari to consider a deserved rest at this point in time and at this age. I continue to wish him robust health to enjoy his retirement from active public service. President Buhari does not necessarily need to heed my advice. But whether or not he heeds it, Nigeria needs to move on and move forward.

I have had occasion in the past to say that the two main political parties – APC and PDP – were wobbling. I must reiterate that nothing has happened to convince me otherwise. If anything, I am reinforced in my conviction. The recent show of PDP must give grave and great concern to lovers of Nigeria. To claim, as has been credited to the chief kingmaker of PDP, that for procuring the Supreme Court judgement for his faction of the Party, he must dictate the tune all the way and this is indeed fraught with danger. If neither APC nor PDP is a worthy horse to ride to lead Nigeria at this crucial and critical time, what then do we do? Remember Farooq Kperogi, an Associate Professor at the Kennesaw State University, Georgia, United States, calls it “a cruel Hobson’s choice; it’s like a choice between six and half a dozen, between evil and evil. Any selection or deflection would be a distinction without a difference.” We cannot just sit down lamenting and wringing our hands desperately and hopelessly.

“….What has emerged from the opposition has shown no better promise from their antecedents. As the leader of that party for eight years as President of Nigeria, I can categorically say there is nothing to write home about in their new team. We have only one choice left to take us out of Egypt to the Promised Land. And that is the coalition of the concerned and the willing – ready for positive and drastic change, progress and involvement….

….Today, Nigeria needs all hands on deck. All hands of men and women of goodwill must be on deck. We need all hands to move our country forward.

We need a Coalition for Nigeria, CN. Such a Movement at this juncture needs not be a political party but one to which all well-meaning Nigerians can belong. That Movement must be a coalition for democracy, good governance, social and economic well-being and progress. Coalition to salvage and redeem our country. You can count me with such a Movement…”

January 28, 2018
PDP kicks against ‘third force’ proposal

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) yesterday said the open letter by former President Olusegun Obasanjo confirmed its poor rating of the President and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

A statement by National Publicity Secretary Kola Ologbondiyan said Obasanjo’s intervention was courageous, timeous and patriotic, adding that such had vindicated its position on President Buhari and the APC.

it however rejected the call by Obasanjo for a third force, saying such would amount to repeating the same blunder that brought in the “ideologically vacuous APC and the Buhari Presidency” which it said had wreaked havoc on the nation.

The PDP said it was obvious that President Buhari and the APC had failed the nation.

The PDP said Obasanjo’s counsel had rekindled the fate of the people in the democratic process.

The party said: “Repeating the old mistake of congregating political strangers cannot help our nation at this time, more so, when the few concerns raised by the former President about the PDP no longer obtain under the refocused and rebranded PDP.

“The PDP is now standing on a truly democratic ground that perfectly represents and reflects the hopes and aspirations of all Nigerians, irrespective of their class, creed or tribe.

“The fact is that Nigerians overrated President Buhari in 2015, but they have now seen that he never possessed the capacity and the required aptitude to effectively govern our great nation and pilot a healthy economy.

“This accounts for the reason former President Obasanjo, just like most Nigerians today, is concerned about the quality of presidential candidates to be presented by various parties for the 2019 election.

“The fact is that while the APC is already caught up with President Buhari, the PDP is open for a new engagement that will throw up the President, which our nation truly deserves at this crucial moment.”

The party called on Nigerians, including leaders across board, to come together to rebuild the nation on “PDP’s consolidated base rather than traversing on another learning curve”.

January 24, 2018
Wanted: a Third Force

“The civil war was a disaster, the failure of reason and the triumph of egoism and narrow-mindedness” — Sam Amadi, in a 4 September 2002 piece published in This Day, headlined “Nigeria: enter the Third Force”

The first casualty of the Nigerian Civil War (1967-1970) was reason. But mutual hurt sharpened the knife for that grand slaughter.

The Igbo pogroms all over the North followed the 15 January 1966 coup. That coup overthrew the North-led civil order. But it enthroned Major-Gen. Thomas Aguiyi-Ironsi, after the so-called “Igbo coup”. The pogroms badly hurt the Igbo — as it would any other people.

But the pogroms too were a result of reported taunting, by some Igbo in the North, of the northern locals. The taunts were over the northern leaders, felled during the first coup. That hurt the North — as it would any other people.

The counter-coup of 29 July 1966 gorily settled scores — a Northern coup cancelled out an Eastern one, with all the grisly killings. But it only roasted the collective Nigerian psyche.

No surprise, the counter-coup only signalled the final descent into political Hades — the Civil War, which followed Eastern Region Governor, Lt-Col. Emeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu’s 30 May 1967 declaration of the ill-fated Republic of Biafra.

Before that tragic denouement, however, the drums of war beat with deafening intensity. Ojukwu was canonizing his Biafra Army as so formidable “no force in Africa” could vanquish it — a tragic bluff.

Yakubu Gowon, also then a lieutenant-colonel though also head of state and supreme commander of the Nigerian Armed Forces (before the Aburi Accords in Ghana pared that title down to commander-in-chief), was also positioning the coming slaughter as a “police action”, to rein in the break-away rebels of the East — a sinister threat.

Less than three years later, tragic bluff had sized up sinister threat — and no less than two million, victims on both sides, lay dead!

Even as that tragedy was brewing, only Wole Soyinka, then 33, of all the intelligentsia then, was unimpressed by the war-mongering. He would try to prevent war at all cost. Hence, he called for a Third Force, neither for Nigeria nor Biafra but against avoidable carnage.

His reward? Detention without trial, almost all through the war, by the Gowon Federal Military Government.

But his contemporary writers? Ken Saro-Wiwa, of the Ogoni South-South minority, opted for Nigeria. Indeed, after the liberation of Port Harcourt from the Biafra forces, he was administrator of that city. But the country he opted for later consumed him under Sani Abacha, a young military commander when Saro-Wiwa was PH administrator.

Chris Okigbo sided with his Igbo folks, though using his poetry to lament the blood and gore. He was consumed by the war.

Chinua Achebe, Soyinka’s most famous contemporary, also sided with his Igbo folks; and was soon drafted as Biafra’s war-time envoy. He survived the war and even joined Aminu Kano’s People’s Redemption Party (PRP), during the 2nd Republic (1979-1983).

But his unrelieved Civil War bitterness would come in There Was A Country, his 2012 “Personal History of Biafra,” a classic example of the swan song as ogre. That book is believed, by not a few, to power the philosophical push for the present neo-Biafra campaign.

That ogre may yet consume the naive. But the old man is safe in his grave.

The Achebe angle neatly ties the present to the past, with its avoidable tragedies. History is threatening to repeat itself. But it may well be a costly farce.

Already, there are eerie parallels: check out Ojukwu of 1967 with Nnamdi Kanu of 2015. The one bluffed and blustered out of plain hurt. The other does, out of free-wheeling bigotry and hatred — as the callow youth, in that Yoruba proverb, that mistakes potent herbs for a delicious vegetable soup. But both are hardly the epitome of sober introspection.

Check out too the Igbo-Hausa/Fulani ethnic baiting and counter-baiting, culminating in the sensational diktat, by the so-called “Northern youths”, for the Igbo to quit the North before October 1 — or else! That, in response to IPOB’s gospel of hate and threat — lunacy and counter-lunacy!

As in a theory in basic creative prose, you know the true character of a person when under crisis. In the crisis of the moment, about every ethnic group is betraying its own maladies.

Some elements in the Niger Delta have given their own counter-order: not only should northerners quit their enclave, those that have oil well interests should also scram.

Even in Yorubaland, some atavistic elements are celebrating the sweet prospects of their great utopia: the immaculate Oodua Republic where, open sesame, Ibadan domination would vanish in Oyo State; the Ijebu-Remo rivalry, in Ogun, would disappear; and the “Lagos-for-Lagosians” lobby in Lagos would, Saul to Paul-like, morph into happy-go-merry pan-Yoruba nationalists, with zero condescension towards the ”ara-oke”, the Yoruba upcountry denizens!

It’s an emotive season of anomie, which shows how little the Nigerian mule, warts and all, is appreciated by these ultra-nationalists! Indeed, as crooned Don Williams, the American country music ace, some folks don’t know what they’ve got until it’s gone!

Kudos to Acting President Yemi Osinbajo for his systematic way of diffusing the tension by his ongoing meeting with leaders of the different ethnic groups.

But one point must be made, if you must come to equity with clean hands: you can’t blame the northern reaction to torrential threats and insults without first condemning, in the most vigorous of terms, the South East source of that torrential hate.

Still, to forestall tragic history from repeating itself, a third force against reckless ethnic ultra-nationalism is imperative.

Despite all the ethnic bellowing and muscle-flexing, it is reassuring that a parallel counter-voice, from all ethnic divides, is challenging this emotional foray into Golgotha. Those voices — Igbo, Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba, Ijaw, Idoma, Tiv, Kanuri, et al — should coalesce and face down these divisive voices. More of such sane voices should speak up.

In 1967, Wole Soyinka went solo, when the rest of Nigerians were going mad on ethnic hate. Their eyes did not clear until two million people lay dead.

In 2017 — 50 years later — surely we have learnt enough from our tragic past to avert yet another?

That is why the Soyinka spirit of 1967 must inspire a determined pan-Nigeria Third Force to defeat this ethnic madness.

If Nigeria is sick – and indeed, it is — fix it! Restructure, if you must. Ensure justice, equity and fair play reign.

But sure, balkanization cannot be the solution? That would create new problems for the illusory el-dorados to follow.

Poetic Extra

June 12

June 12!

And a culprit is long dead.
But his memory
is a septic tank of sleaze,
memory worse than no memory!

Another lives,
perfumed by the high
and the mighty.
But what oozes from his chamber
is the rot
of the living dead!

But MKO, their victim
lives, though long dead!
Each year, this day,
he comes alive:
pleasure to the righteous,
pain to the hideous,
but a deep gash,
on the soul
of a nation
that kills its best!

June 12!

Lagos, 13 June 2017

June 20, 2017
Waiting for a Third Force (2)

It is rather ironic that it is Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, one of the prosecution witnesses intended to rubbish, incriminate and demonise Saraki and his ambition to run for president in 2019 that is being primed to pull Saraki from his high pedestal. It is also surprising to note that the unusual rapport and camaraderie existing between Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, a former governor of Kano State and current senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and his erstwhile deputy and successor as governor, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, has nose-dived into a raging confrontation between the duo.

It is believed that Ganduje, the incumbent governor of Kano, is either intent on running his own show or working assiduously to stifle and minimize Kwankwaso’s threat of running for the 2019 presidency at the behest of either el-Rufai or the President, himself. Confrontation between the two sides of the divide recently went physical when policemen, supposedly on the express order of Governor Ganduje, stopped a mass wedding event sponsored by the Kwankwassiya Movement, Kwankwaso’s political and ideological foot-soldiers. A move by this same organisation to hold the event at the residence of Senator Kwankwaso was also put down by the same security agents, an action that is currently under investigation by the police high echelon.

Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, currently the Governor of Sokoto, supposedly as a consolation prize after he recanted his presidential ambition for Buhari’s emergence, is believed by many political pundits to be working subterraneously, to re-energise his ambition in the face of the poor showing in all facets of governance and service delivery by the current the Buhari presidency. As a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tambuwal’s grip on issues and fellow representatives, presented a picture of one with commitment, independence, fairness and religious tolerance, attributes that seem in short supply in Buhari’s rule so far. Tambuwal’s political sense is further attested to by his liberal attitude to those issues that rile other politicians. Recently, he went to Rivers State to commission some projects done by the rival Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), government of Mr. Nyesom Ezenwo Wike.

It is generally believed that the ambition of Atiku Abubakar to be the President of Nigeria, has never dimmed for once considering his huge investment in the long-running project which has seen him make several forays. Rather, he becomes more determined by the day.

To actualise his enduring mind-set that his northern people have not been represented at the presidential stage by the one who is truly national in orientation and profoundly detribalised in practice, Atiku sees himself in that stead and is primed for the position.

With the younger hawks in the All Progressives Congress angling for a piece of the presidential cake, Atiku may be forced by the prevailing circumstances to float a political party of his own as a platform to actualise his ambition. Either way, the prospects of his supplanting a Buhari in the run-up to the 2019 Presidential Election, appear brighter and more realisable on that new platform. Sources within the APC and the PDP are also of the view that a presidential field that includes an Atiku running on a new party with a Buhari on the APC ticket, and a northern PDP candidate will be a beauty to watch. Atiku is also seen by many as a bridge between the old and the young especially if the robust health he currently enjoys is taken into consideration.

Atiku is generously endowed financially and with decades of personal, business and political networks across the six geo-political zones of the country he is the man to beat. He, it was, who inherited the political machine of the late master-strategist, General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, that once straddled the Nigerian political space, a factor that will come handy in the coming couple of years. With the current happenings and uncertainty in the PDP, a new party midwifed by Atiku will present a third leg of the political tripod that will determine who takes what in 2019.

With the current power pendulum of the existing two major political parties – the APC and PDP – it is apparent that, barring any unforeseen circumstances, a new political party would soon emerge on the horizon. The new party, which would be a third force, will be made up of aggrieved members of the ruling APC and the remnants of the opposition PDP. The new party would challenge the APC and the PDP.

Many frontline leaders of the two main political parties are involved. Meetings on the new party have been held both in Nigeria and outside the country particularly in London and Dubai. The emergence of the party probably became imminent because some leaders of the two main political parties believe that Nigerians are neither happy with the current governance style of the APC nor the present deplorable state of the PDP.

As a result of this, some concerned leaders of both parties, who are equally dissatisfied with the goings-on in the polity are trying to forge a new alliance in order to find a way out of the Buhari presidency. The way things are now, it is not certain that the APC or the PDP will go into the 2019 election as presently constituted. What this implies is that, a new political party, chiselled from both parties, is in the offing and could be unveiled in the early part of 2017 to prepare it for the 2019 elections.

Nigerians are particularly irked by the perceived non-inclusive nature of the APC and the protracted crisis in the PDP. They will not be happy to see the PDP return to power so soon under the same name. It is also obvious that though some top politicians in the APC are still on the surface, showing solidarity with President Buhari, they are rankled by the strength of what they call the ‘cabal’ around the president’s cabinet. Thus, many top members of the party are dissatisfied with the vice-like grip of the group on the president.

Though some strong political leaders and supporters of the two main political parties might dismiss those looking for a new party as deluding themselves, the Buhari presidency has become too shaky in recent times and so could be vulnerable to manipulations and outright abandonment by those who have been side-lined in the scheme of things.

But the protagonists of the new political party are not unaware that the Buhari presidency is far different from the immediate past Jonathan presidency where all sorts of things happened. They are cautious that if anybody makes a false move now and those in the corridors of power get to know, all they need is to show you some papers and tell you what you did in the past. That is trouble. That is the way it goes in Nigeria. That was the way former President Olusegun Obasanjo kept opposition to his regime at bay.

And right now, the cabal is stronger than that of former President Obasanjo. Don’t be fooled that you can threaten them. The only safe passage for the protagonists of any new party for now, and they are aware of this, is to keep their scheming close to their chests, otherwise, they should be prepared to ruffle feathers with security agents particularly the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC.

It is obvious that the PDP may not survive after all. That is why those who can think fast believe there is need for a backup on their side. Many leaders in the APC are also unhappy with Nigeria sliding into recession under their leadership. They attribute the state of the nation’s economy to a lack of capacity by those saddled with the responsibility of governance.

Whether young or old, Nigerians expect those who harbour the intention to preside over the affairs of this great country to set corporate development agenda by enunciating sustainable policies that will benefit all, not just a section.

November 2, 2016
Waiting for a Third Force (1)

Power, to the ambitious, is like an aphrodisiac. It creates the enabling self-satisfying platform for the realisation of other pursuits and wants that can only be assuaged by a higher dose of its finer or baser attributes. It has been used by leaders to subjugate and strangulate the opposition in the selfish race to personalise or colonise it. Others want power for its sake as a development tool or a vehicle to emancipate a larger mass of the people they lead. An admixture of these variants sometimes occurs.

In its pristine form, the beauty of politics is the allure and aura of power. In the Nigerian context, there is the added tendency for some of the wearers of this power toga to use it to accumulate economic capital for self and cronies. It is not enough to apportion the accruing “dividends of democracy” as many of those within the periphery of the power modem develop a sense of “resource control” and “self-help,” as the case may be.

It is in the light of the foregoing that we must situate the desperate and precipitate actions, activities and utterances of a certain section of the political class that has indulged in wanton disregard for constituted authority and rebellious activities designed to instigate other sections of the society to do same with intent to undermine the freely-elected President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and his administration by overt and covert means.

This cadre of politicians believes that the art of politicking is another dimension of war that must be fought with bile, angst and uncommon but intense vehemence to achieve the primary aim of acquiring power and all other “appurtenances” that will, necessarily, follow. Ordinarily, the foibles of the average politician are mainly predicated on the need to have a space in the market place of ideas to power his quest for power.

In recent times, the Nigerian polity has witnessed a subtle but clearly discernible jostle for political power with the most strident and baleful politicking in the nation’s history. It exhibits the frightful potentials for exacerbating the already taut and fragile security in certain parts of the country and the crippling economic recession, the existence of which many people believe some of the politicians are culpable.

Conversely, a section of the political class, with hidden drum majors, has been fanning the embers of discord, hatred and bare-faced manipulation of the people’s set views through inciting statements, activities and proxy media intervention. These are carried out with pre-determined anti-establishment focus, bent and impact, to rock the boat of focused governance, preparatory to a final assault on the Presidency in 2019. A very important area that most people are not paying any attention to is the frenetic and subterranean moves and posturing for the presidential elections of 2019. This is even so as the 19-month-old government of President Muhammadu Buhari is still tottering and trying to consolidate on the tenets of good governance it exposed during the 2015 campaigns.

There is no gainsaying the fact that the virtual ‘war’ for the soul of the National Assembly, on the issue of the election of its principal officers, was one fought solely to position certain persons for the prime positions at the Presidency in 2019 and beyond. Among the top echelon and rank-and-file of the APC, there is talk of the likelihood of President Buhari doing one term and leaving the terrain to the likes of Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Abubakar Bukola Saraki (who is currently in the visible and powerful position of President of the Senate) and lately, the diminutive Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, has silently crept into the emerging presidential list of possible successors in 2019.

It is pertinent to note that Mallam el-Rufai is steadily building bridges of understanding and networking among the power bases in the six geo-political zones of the country as a dress rehearsal for 2019. He was recently physically present at the annual Ojude-Oba festival, an annual assembly of prominent Ijebu sons and daughters in Ijebu-Ode, three days after the Eid-El-Kabir festival. It is patterned along the ancient Durbar that is also held at about the same time in many cities in the northern parts of the country. A member of Buhari’s kitchen cabinet, el-Rufai is believed to be one of the brain-boxes of the CPC that co-joined with two other legacy parties to form the APC. Being at the epicentre of the scheming and posturing within the APC, he sees himself as that technocrat who is honing his skills to succeed a geriatric Buhari. The fireworks are expected to be set off as soon as President Buhari engages the home-bend in the dusk of his current term. This is mindful of the possible scenario that the President’s foot-soldiers will, either by self-help or prodding from the principal himself, plot a second term which he is constitutionally-entitled to and in the process, rubbish the ambition(s) of those who are rearing to go after his job.

As it is, President Buhari has a date with history, positively or negatively, depending on how he will ultimately solve the myriad of problems and challenges besetting his present term of office. With the present dismal indices, he will be remembered for assuaging the dire circumstances assailing the larger mass of the Nigerian people or for compounding them.

It is believed that the most glaring leadership flaw that President Buhari has, as usual, is his susceptibility to being hijacked by a powerful cartel or cabal to take decisions and provide direction. It is this shortcoming that el-Rufai feels he is in the best position to reverse through the effective combination of goals and methods in good governance practice. In the camp of those disposed to a new presidency in 2019, the current President has been silently consigned to an Old Peoples’ Home even while he is the de jure occupant of Aso Rock Villa, a fact that is reinforced by the held perception by many Nigerians that President Buhari lacks the required “magic” wand to turn around the crippling economic recession that is currently assailing the heart and hub of the Nigerian economy and by extension the people’s living standard.

Purveyors of this empirical theory are wont to postulate that: if Buhari at age 73 is wobbling and fumbling to steady the similarly wobbling and tottering Nigerian economy without visible success, what do you expect when he is in the throes of age 80 and above?

It is this younger cadre of APC faithful that is throwing up an el-Rufai or any other ‘Young Turk’ with a vaunting ambition to shove and shunt a geriatric Buhari aside and replace him with a young and mentally-active president who will be his own man. He will solve the nation’s problems and challenges with digital approach and alacrity shorn of the drudgery and “slow motion” that is presently the rule of the day. It is rather ironical that el-Rufai had at a forum on October 5, 2010, shot down Buhari’s decision to run again in a fresh presidential election. Hear him in the following words which are still very profound and true in today’s circumstances: “… Babangida and General Buhari should just disappear. They should give way to a new set of people with new ideas. Young people, preferably… Obama is 48 and Cameron is 43, for God’s sake. So, why are we recycling leaders that ruled this country very well or very badly, 25 years ago?”

Many also believe that a long list of possible successors are scheming on the side-lines and are building structures to actualise their projections. Saraki’s sly politicking that made him the President of the Senate has resulted in the orchestrated scheming to remove and disconnect him from the very visible role of the Senate President which many political watchers believe he is using to test waters and mainly to reinvent himself as a welfarist and caring bridge-builder.

October 26, 2016