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Tag: Thorny

  • Oyo PDP’s thorny journey to 2019

    Oyo PDP’s thorny journey to 2019

    The Oyo State Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has witnessed high and low times in the last six months. Many aggrieved defectors have returned to the fold, following receonciliation, to the excitement of party members.. But, the excitement was terminated by the recent defection of its prominent leaders to the All Progressives Congress (APC). The defection has left the party in a dicey situation as it warms up for next year’s general elections. BISI OLADELE reports

    The Oyo State Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is facing hard times. The chapter has been decimated, following the defection of prominent leaders from the fold to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

    Since crisis broke out between  former Governor Rashidi Ladoja and the late Chief Lamidi Adedibu, the party has not remained the same. It has not fully recovered from the crisis.

    The late strongman of Ibadan politics fought Ladoja to a standstill. He instigated his impeachment by the House of Assembly. He also installed Ladoja’s deputy, Chief Adebayo Alao-Akala, as governor.  Ladoja returned to office, following the Supreme Court judgment in January, 2007 ,after 11 months in the cold.

    The crisis culminated in the emergence of Alao-Akala as the party’s governorship candidate for the 2007 election. An aggrieved Ladoja distancied himself from the party and government activities.

    In the build-up to the 2011 elections, some chieftains from Ibadan worked against the party. They vented their anger on Alao-Akala’s candidature. Although they did not leave the party officially, they supported the candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Senator Abiola Ajimobi, who defeated Alao-Akala and Ladoja, who also contested on the platform of Accord Party.

    The PDP was at its lowest ebb  during the 2015 elections. Its governorship candidate, Senator Teslim Folarin, came fourth. He trailed Alao-Akala, Ladoja and Ajimobi.

    In 2015, Alao-Akala had left for the Labour Party (LP). Ladoja was in Accord while Seyi Makinde was in the Social Democratic Party (SDP).The dispersal of party leaders led to the party’s failure during the polls.

    However, there was jubilation when Ladoja and Makinde, an engineer and businessman, returned to the party last year.

    To the consternation of party elders, the excitement was terminated, following the defection of  Alao-Akala, Folarin and the party’s only federal lawmaker, Hon. Dokun Odebunmi, to the APC at a rally in Ibadan. Many notable chieftains of the PDP defected along with them to the ruling party.

    At the historic rally held at Mapo Hall, APC leaders boasted that the days of the PDP were numbered in Oyo State.

    But, the party fired back, saying that it will bounce back to power in next year’s elections because the people were fed up with the ruling party.

    Many observers point out that the struggle among the governorship aspirants may tear the PDP apart, ahead of the poll.

    Currently, three chieftains are in the race. They are Senator Olufemi Lanlehin, Makinde and Sharafadeen Alli.

      Makinde

    Makinde, an oil magnate, recently returned from his sojourn in the SDP since early 2015. He was the candidate of the party in the election. He came fifth, trailing Folarin, Alao-Akala, Ladoja and Ajimobi.

    Makinde has been pursuing his  ambition since 2013. The 50-year old politician said he returned to the PDP to join forces with its leaders to defeat the APC in next year’s elections.

    His profile is high, in spite of his poor performance in 2015. Many voters believe that he has the advantage of age over others. This is accentuated by his decent politics and philanthropic gestures.

    But, it is unclear if the new leadership of the party will prefer him to other aspirants. For instance, his bloc is in the minority in the chapter. The majority of members of the executive committee are Ladoja’s supporters.  Should the situation remain the same till the election period, he will find it extremely difficult to pick the ticket, except the Ladoja bloc sacrifices its own candidate for him. That is a daunting challenge before him.

    Should he also pick the ticket, it may be very difficult for him to defeat the APC candidate, given the coalition of the big wigs in the leading party at the moment.

     Lanlehin  

    Lanlehin left the Alliance for Democracy (AD) for the PDP in 2003. He joined the ACN in 2009 to contest  for governor, but failed to pick the governorship ticket in 2011. He was later elected as the senator representing Oyo South. He defected to Accord in 2014 and lost his seat to Senator Soji Akanbi. Now that Ladoja led most of his followers back to the PDP, Lanlehin is one of the major contenders.

    His name still resonates among top politicians in the state, alhough he has lost some some of his supporters to hi rivals.

    Many believe that Ladoja may prefer him to other candidates because he has been his close ally since he joined the Accord Party. Besides, analysts believe that the former governor may want to favour him as a compensation for his past electoral loss.

    Being a former member of the ACN, pundits believe that Lanlehin may still appeal to some APC supporters, if he emerges as the PDP candidate, particularly if the APC fails to present a popular candidate.

    Alli

    Alli, a former Permanent Secretary and Chairman, Odu’a Investments Ltd, is also in he race. A former associate of Ladoja, Alli defected to the ACN during the preparations for the 2011 elections. He also left for the LP during the preparation for the 2015 polls. He was Alao-Akala’s running mate.

    Alli has a slim chance of getting the ticket, compared with Lanlehin and Makinde. It may be tough for him to earn Ladoja’s trust for the exalted position,having abandoned him in the past. Besides, the politician may not be able to fund a stte-wide campaign, if given the ticket.

    Ladoja

    Alhough Ladoja is now the leader of the PDP in Oyo State, the fortunes of the party had plummeted since 2011 due to implosion. Since then, the PDP has been unable to regain its strength in the state.

    With the recent defections, Ladoja faces another tough task of delivering the state for the party.

    Most of the top party leaders who returned to the PDP are from Ibadan, signifying that voters in Ibadan may remain highly divided, reminiscent of 2015. But, the PDP will have a tough battle winning in other zones.

  • APC: Thorny road to reconciliation

    APC: Thorny road to reconciliation

    The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is grappling with the challenge of reconciliation imposed by the rebellion of legislators during the recent election of National Assembly principal officers. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the hurdles to cross before a truce can be achieved between the party leadership and the recalcitrant legislators.   

    For the next three weeks, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) will be battling with reconciliation. Its polarised leaders will be searching for solution to the self-inflicted crisis.

    Since the crisis broke out over the election of National Assembly principal officers, reconciliation has been a herculean task. Although the party, led by Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, accepted its fate, following the emergence of Dr. Bukola Saraki as the Senate President and Hon. Yakubu Dogara as the Speaker of the House of Representatives, contrary to its directive, the lawmakers compounded the crisis by also rejecting the party’s directive on the choice of other principal officers.

    According to party sources, neither the party leadership nor the National Assembly leadership is in a vantage position to initiate reconciliation because they are parties in the dispute. The meeting of the APC National Caucus was put on hold to avoid the escalation of the conflicts. Although the National Executive Committee(NEC) of the party will meet today, sources said the crisis would not be discussed.  “Any reconciliation or peace meeting, without the President presiding over it, is a waste of time. Only President Muhammadu Buhari can unite the party now. APC is terribly polarised,” he said.

    However, the President appears not to be in a hurry to do so. President Buhari, according to a top party stalwart, has expressed concern about the implications of the crisis for the party and his administration, after a sober reflection. He has not officially received Saraki, Dogara and other principal officers, who were elected in controversial circumstances. The President, it is believed, was particularly irked by the emergence of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chieftain, Senator Ike Ekweremadu, as the Deputy Senate President. In a bid to keep the National Assembly at arm’s length, President Buhari has postponed ministerial nominations, it was learnt.

    The genesis of the conflict was the crisis of confidence between party leaders, who subscribed to the doctrine of party supremacy, and chieftains who loathed what they have described as dictation from party leadership. The division is visible in the National Working Committee (NWC) and the NEC. Party leaders, including Odigie-Oyegun, his deputy, Mr. Segun Oni, former Interim Chairman Chief Bisi Akande, National Leader Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, National Secretary Mai Buni, Senators George Akume, Barnabas Gemade, Alhaji Lai Mohammed and some “men of the old order” believe that members should be subjected to party supremacy to instill discipline and order. They also believe that certain political traditions, which had nurtured democracy in some countries, including the United States, should be emulated. In their view, the minority leader in the National Assembly should automatically become the majority leader, following the change of government. Thus, they supported former Benue State Governor George Akume for Senate President.

    Akume has served the party meritoriously as the Minority Leader for four years. He is from Benue State. The leaders argued that the Christian minority in the Middle Belt should be rewarded for their bloc support for the APC. Therefore, they endorsed Akume, the former governor, who worked tirelessly for power shift in the Northcentral state.

    In the House of Representatives, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila (Surulere, Lagos), has also served as the Minority Leader. Thus, the leaders believed that he was fit for Speaker, in accordance with traditions in mature democracies.

    However, according to Presidency sources, Buhari’s body language suggested that he did not want to endorse the former governor. Besides, the sources added, the President was sensitive to the complaints that Benue State has produced three Senate presidents-Dr. Iyorcha Ayu, Chief Ahmed Ebute and Gen. David Mark. “Having objected to the zoning of the Senate Presidency to the Northcentral, the President asked the party to consider the Northeast for the position. He was impressed by the bloc vote from the region for the APC, despite the insurgency. That was how Senator Ahmad Lawan from Yobe State entered the race as the candidate of the President and, ultimately, the party,” the sources said.

    Some chieftains also disclosed that Buhari confided in some APC leaders, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Gombe State Governor Danjuma Goje and Governor Abdulazeez Yari, that it would not be a bad idea, if Lawan was elected Senate President.

    A party chieftain, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Buhari was not indifferent to the pedigree, tendency and sentiments of candidates for  Senate President. He said the President even confided in the NWC that he wanted people without blemish as leaders of the National Assembly because of his anti-corruption programme. “Buhari made it known that he did not want anybody that has been tainted with corruption in his government,” he stressed.

    But, the move by the party to endorse candidates did not go down well with other aspirants. They, therefore, resolved to thwart the agenda. The NWC suggested primaries for the aspirants for Senate President, Speaker and their deputies. Saraki and Dogara kicked against it, saying that the National Assembly should not be under the influence of the party when choosing principal officers. Before the mock election, Saraki was said to have insisted on secret ballot. The party agreed. The mock election conducted by the APC National Secretary was boycotted by the supporters of Saraki and Dogara. But, the party went on with the exercise. Lawan and Gbajabiamila won. Saraki and Dogara rejected the result.

    Ahead of the inauguration of the National Assembly, former Senate President Mark had said that the PDP would not run for elections of principal officers. But, when the crisis broke out, the National Assembly PDP caucus retraced its steps. Up came Ekweremadu as an aspirant for Deputy Senate President. As the crisis was brewing, the dead caucuses in the APC were exhumed. Some party chieftains started to agitate for the “equitable” distribution of offices. They pointed out that the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) produced President Buhari, the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) nominated Vice President Yemi Osinbajo (SAN) and the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) produced the National Party Chairman, Odigie-Oyegun. Therefore, they contented that the defunct New PDP should produce the Senate President and the Speaker. However, former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi cautioned them, saying that APC should remain a united fold, said the source.

    According to party sources, the propaganda orchestrated to stop Tinubu also blossomed. Some party leaders misinterpreted the party’s position as an agenda by the National Leader to foist principal officers on the parliament. “The former governors from the North disagreed. They formed a resistance, despite the explanation that Lawan was Buhari’s candidate. But, they continue to say that since Tinubu nominated the Vice President and the National Chairman, Lawan’s ambition should be shut down,” added the source.

    Besides, some APC leaders from the Northeast believed that Lawan’s emergence as the Senate President may jeopardise their ambitions. For example, former Vice President Abubakar from Adamawa State is eyeing the Board of Trustees (BoT) Chairman. There are speculations that he will also run for the President in 2019. Goje, who has resented Tinubu’s influence, wanted to contest for the Senate Leader. Also, Ambassador Baba Gana Kingibe, Baba Jiga and Kashim Iman-all from Borno State-are struggling for the Secretary to Government of the Federation (SGF). “They are all from the Northeast. So, if Lawan was picked, they were all out,” said the source.

    When the President returned from Germany, concerned leaders urged him to intervene in the crisis. It was suggested that the APC should not go for the inauguration of the National Assembly as a divided house. But, the situation was getting out of control. Ahead of the inauguration, President Buhari had sent the proclamation letter to the Clerk of the National Assembly, who is perceived to be  close to Mark and PDP senators. Suddenly, the PDP caucus bounced into reckoning because the rank of APC leaders was divided. A party chieftain, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said: “PDP senators said they will work with Saraki, if he picked Ekweremadu as his deputy. Those supporting Saraki were in this dilemma when the Vice President sought audience with the senators. But, he was ignored by the lawmakers.” Another source said that Saraki was also able to convince former President Olusegun Obasanjo to support his bid.

    The dust raised by the emergence of a bi-partisan leadership in the Senate had not settled when, in flagrant disobedience to the party’s directive, the Senate elected Senator Ali Ndume as the Senate Leader and Senator Ibn Na’Alla as Deputy Senate Leader. The move to take a similar step led to confusion in the House of Representatives. Also, the senators and House of Representatives members rejected the directive of the party on the selection of Chief Whips and Deputy Chief Whips. In fact, the Senate President and Speaker refused to read the letter of the APC National Chairman on the matter on the floor of the House. APC had endorsed Akume and Gbajabiamila for the positions of Majority Leaders.

    The President, according to sources,  felt betrayed by some party leaders who allegedly fuelled the festering crisis by supporting the senators who rejected the party’s directive. “This has led to some forms of mutual suspicion, mistrust, distrust and confidence. In fact, I suspect that the crisis is an eye opener for the President. These events may shape the next critical steps he will take, especially on appointments and the anti-corruption war.”

    The National Assembly has adjourned sittings till the last week of this month. During the three week-break, the Senate President and Speaker are expected to reach out to aggrieved leaders and stakeholders, who are bitter about the affront on the party leadership.  A member of the APC National Executive Committee (NEC) said that Saraki and Dogara are buying more time to consolidate. “During this break, the plan is to send powerful emissaries to the President and other aggrieved leaders so that they can put the past behind them. The fear is that, having ignored the party’s directive on the selection of the National Assembly principal officers, they may be excluded from making contributions to ministerial nominations. The Senate President and the Speaker will promise to give concessions to the Lawan/Akume and Gbajabiamila/Mongono camps during the composition of National Assembly Committees. But, the problem is that trust has been eroded.”

    He added: “The bi-partisanship leadership of the National Assembly has implications for the APC. The Deputy Senate President is from the minority party. In the absence of the Speaker, someone from the minority party will preside. Automatically, the Senate President is the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Constitution Amendment. He is the representative of the National Assembly in the ECOWAS Parliament. He receives the budget on behalf of the Senate from the President. This is the greatest problem for the ruling party now.”

    To end the crisis, party chieftains have suggested some solutions. These include the resignation of Ekweremadu, fresh election for principal officers and the sustenance of the status quo in the spirit of unity and understanding. All these options have implications.

    A party chieftain, who reflected on the crisis, said the solution lies with the President. They said, although reconciliation is difficult, it is not impossible “The President must call a meeting of stakeholders where there will be concessions and chieftains will elevate the interest of the party above narrow, personal interest,” he added.

  • Nigeria’s thorny road to cocoa revival

    Nigeria’s thorny road to cocoa revival

    Nigeria plans to reclaim her position as a global powerhouse in cocoa production and export. But, experts say without evolving a vibrant local chocolate industry to benefit from the entire cocoa value chain, and addressing some fundamental issues agitating the minds of cocoa farmers and stakeholders, the road to achieving the feat remains rough. Assistant Editor CHIKODI OKEREOCHA reports.

    Some people may not have noticed, but a revolution, somewhat silent, is sweeping through the cocoa segment of the agric sector. The revolution, when completed, would hopefully, return Nigeria to the height of its glory in the global cocoa industry. Apparently prompted by the economic crisis caused by the crashing oil price in the international market, which has forced the Federal Government to look towards the non-oil sector, the revolution, according to the Minister ofIndustry, Trade and Investment, Dr Olusegun Aganga, would help Nigeria claim a greater share of the global market for finished goods made from cocoa estimated at $200 billion annually.

    The minister, who spoke at the Nigerian Cocoa Value Addition Summit, held in Abuja, recently, said the renewed emphasis on cocoa will create thousands of jobs. According to him, government was repositioning to extract immense value from the cocoa industry where the global value of exporting raw cocoa is approximately $10 billion a year, while the total value from chocolates is over $100 billion a year. He said government was working on deriving benefits from cocoa for farmers and Nigerians through the implementation of initiatives and expansion projects in cocoa processing and manufacturing.

    Part of the initiative that has earned the government the buy-in and support of farmers and key stakeholders in the cocoa sub-sector, was the distribution of hybrid cocoa pods to farmers across the country to boost production and exports. At the last count, over 1.4 million hybrid cocoa pods, according to Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, have been distributed to  farmers across the country.

    Adesina, who spoke at the same event, said this translates to about 50 million seedlings, which are enough for farmers to plant 46,000 hectares of new cocoa plantation. This is based on the yield capacity of the distributed hybrids to produce five times the yield of what farmers get today, which is 2.5 tonnes as against 0.5 tonnes. He promised that with the introduction of the Cocoa Corporation of Nigeria (CCON), the government would be able to co-ordinate the sector and facilitate access to finance.

    That is not all. Cocoa farmers are also being provided with critical inputs, such as agro-chemicals, to guard against black pod and insects, and fertiliser to enhance yield per hectare. “We have also succeeded, for the first time, to introduce a specifically formulated fertiliser for cocoa. Cocoa farmers are also given agro-chemicals, insecticides, fungicides, in addition to fertiliser and hybrid pods,’’ Team Leader, Cocoa Value Chain Development at the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Dr. Peter Aikpokpodion,said.

    The Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN), Ibadan, Oyo State, The Nation learnt, is also carrying out lots of researches on cocoa bread, liquor and cocoa detergent. According to its Director, Mr. Malachi Akoroda, a few projects were being executed in collaboration with foreign partners to research more into cocoa and see how it can be improved upon by way of partnerships, collaborations and linkages.

    Interestingly, some of these efforts appear to be yielding fruit. For instance, in 2014 alone,Nigeria recorded the highest export of cocoa and its products valued at N131b, according to the Nigeria Export Promotion Council (NEPC). “Cocoa and cocoa preparations were the highest exported products in 2014 with the trade volume on cocoa amounting to N131.2 billion,’’ NEPC noted.

    Statistics from NEPC show that Nigeria recorded N43.191b exportation of the products in the first quarter of the year, while more than N18. 558b was recorded in the second quarter. Over N24. 845 billion was recorded in the third quarter, while N44. 695b was recorded in the fourth quarter. NEPC said the exportation of the products was part of the Federal Government’s plan to develop and enhance market opportunities for non-oil export sector through the National Strategy Export Products (NSEP).

    The Federal Government in January marked out 13 NSEP to replace the nation’s over dependence on petroleum products. According to Aganga, tumbling prices of petroleum products at the international markets was threatening the stability of the Nigerian economy hence, this was part of Federal Government’s moves to revive the dwindling national economy with emphasis on rapid growth of the non-oil sector for exports.

    Although, 12 products were originally identified under the NSEP, the number increased because the Executive Director of NEPC, Mr. Segun Awolowo, made a case for the inclusion of Cashew on the list. Aganga listed the 13 NSEP in three categories, including agro-industrial-palm oil, cocoa, cashew, sugar and rice. Others are mining-related such as cement, iron ore/metals, auto parts/cars, aluminium, oil and gas industrial products, petroleum products, fertiliser/urea, petrochemical and methanol.

    However, while these efforts may have put Nigeria on the threshold of regaining her lost glory as a leading cocoa producer, there is a snag: lack of a vibrant chocolate industry to process cocoa into chocolate and other finished products. At present, 90 per cent of chocolate products in the Nigerian market are imported from Europe and other African countries such as Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire and South-Africa.

    The Nation learnt that there are few processing companies with the capacity to process cocoa into chocolate in Africa’s largest economy; a situation that has denied Nigeria the opportunity of enjoying the full benefit of the ongoing revolution in the sub-sector. Issues such as regular supply of cocoa, capital to establish local processing plants, and the challenge of marketability viz-a-viz imported chocolate, among others, have been identified as serious obstacles to the emergence of a vibrant local chocolate industry.

    This was why Adesina, for instance, has been advocating that Nigeria produce chocolates instead of exporting raw beans. He said cocoa processing factories generate between $90 million and $400 million annually even at their low capacity rates, urging Nigerians to give more priority to processing instead of exportation of cocoa beans. Adesina, who spoke at the recent 50th anniversary of CRIN, added that a special intervention fund will also be established to support cocoa processors for asset acquisition and working capital.

    The Founder, Centre for Cocoa Development Initiative, a Non-governmental Organisation (NGO), Mr. Robo Adhuze, told The Nation that at the moment the ‘N100b Cocoa Intervention Fund’ announced by the Federal Government to support cocoa processors remains at the level of a proposal. He, however, said the recent feat achieved by the Ondo State Government’s ‘Cocoa Revolution Project’, particularly in the area of cocoa processing, is an indication that government’s ongoing efforts at revamping cocoa is yielding positive result.

    Adhuze, whose NGO focuses on promoting the development of cocoa in Nigeria and fostering awareness on the usefulness of cocoa products, said Ondo State won the Chocolate Silver Awards at the recently concluded 7th edition of the annual Academy of Chocolate Award, held at the Fortnum & Mason Piccadilly, London.

    At the event, which attracted major cocoa/chocolate and confectionery industry stakeholders across the globe, cocoa produced in the state, for chocolate production, received world certification and recognition. The state was mentioned at the ceremony as the only chocolate award winner from West Africa that produces 75 per cent of global cocoa bean output.

    Chairman of the state Cocoa Revolution Implantation Committee, Jibayo Oyebade, said the product had already been presented to the partnering firm overseas, Cargill Cocoa and Chocolate firm in Netherland. “We taught our cocoa farmers on how to improve the quality of their cocoa through proper fermentation. Our partners have taken our sample, and are satisfied with it.

    “I am proud that our effort has yielded good results. We want to reproduce chocolate from our own cocoa,” Oyebade said, adding that only 300 kilogrammes of the product was sent as sample. He also said the state would increase production and establish a chocolate academy and factory.

    The Ondo State feat has been a wake-up call of sorts for other cocoa producing states. According to Adhuze, several states are eager to replicate Ondo’s success by riding on the crest of the cocoa transformation programme midwifed by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD).

    The Nation learnt that apart from Ondo, a number of state governments have already indicated interest to be listed on the cocoa value chain intervention programme of the FMARD. For instance, only six states were involved in the programme’s implementation in 2012, but that doubled the following year 2013.

    Adhuze said what gave Ondo State an edge in exploiting the entire cocoa value chain in terms of marketing, processing and adding value was that out of about 10 cocoa processing factories in the country five are located in the state. He, however, noted that although about 24 states fall under what is described as ‘Nigeria’s Cocoa Belt’ only eight are commercially viable, and they form the hub for the current economic regeneration anchored on cocoa production and export.

    “We have enough cocoa processing factories; the only thing is that they are not performing optimally because of high cost of fund and energy,” Adhuze told The Nation, adding that in the next five or seven years, Nigeria would meet its target in cocoa production and export.

  • Thorny road to 2015

    Thorny road to 2015

    Two years to the next general elections, opposition figures are sharpening their arrows. But the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is preparing for the 2015 challenge. Assistant Editor AUGUSTINE AVWODE writes on the issues and personalities that would shape the contest.

     

    Apart from ensuring that the normal democratic institutions continue to be relevant, analysts say the roles of some personalities in the polity are crucial to the sustenance of democracy in the country. These individuals include President Goodluck Jonathan; former Head of State and three times presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, National Leader of the Action Congress of Nigeria(ACN) Asiwaju Bola Tinubu; the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof Attahiru Jega.

     

    President Goodluck Jonathan

     

    President Goodluck Jonathan has a major challenge. This is ensuring that a level playing field is provided for all and sundry by the democratic institutions in the country. He is the man on whose table the buck ends. Apart from being the President, with a very high probability of seeking a second term, he is in charge of almost everything that has to do with the sustenance and deepening of the nation’s democracy. Balancing his personal ambition with national interest could be very tasking, especially, in the face of his party’s determination to continue to rule.

    In 2011, when he was campaigning for the Presidency on the platform of the PDP, he declared that his ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian. He also declared that nobody should rig election for him. Whether those declarations will be repeated, if he chooses to run in 2015, is yet to be known. Already, his party national chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur has said that the 2015 electoral contest is ‘a big war’. Besides, analysts are beginning to express reservation over the readiness of the President to repeat his stance of 2011. Two instances readily come to mind. The emergence of Tukur as the chairman of the PDP and the emergence of the chairman of the Board of Trustee (BoT) of the party, Chief Tony Annenih are often used as the yardstick of measuring how unyielding the President could be whenever he wants anything.

     

    Muhhamadu Buhari

     

    The former Head of State leads the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). The Daura, Katsina State-born retired Army General has demonstrated his strongly held views about the need to ‘salvage’ the country for good by contesting the position of Nigeria President for three consecutive times. Described by many as an unrepentant apostle of anti-corruption, Buhari enjoys the largest followership in Northern Nigeria. He has carved a niche for himself as a highly disciplined person. His anti-corruption stance is glaring to everybody to see in a society that is reeling under the yoke of corrupt practices. For a man that has held many ‘juicy’ appointments, as they say here, it is gratifying to see him parade a clean and stainless score-card while in office.

    In year 2003, Buhari contested the Presidential election under the platform of All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and lost to Chief Olusegun Obasanjo’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) a result he challenged in Court but also lost. Not deterred, he re-contested the 2007 Presidential election also under the platform of same Party but against his kinsman, the late Alhaji Umar Musa Yar’adua. Buhari lost again and challenged the result in the Court, as the case was still been heard, the leadership of his party went into accord with the ruling party, PDP, to form a Government of National Unity, he opted out of this marriage of convenience and pursued his case, but also lost again.In another attempt to rule through the ballots, Buhari went into the race for the third time but under the platform of another newly formed party, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), but also lost.

    He is at present one of the arrow heads of a merger of three major opposition parties to form the All Progressives Congress (APC). The planned APC, when it is registered, will also have groups or factions from the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and the Democratic Peoples Party (DPP).

    With Buhari as one of the leaders of the planned APC, analysts believe that the electoral contest in 2015 will be keenly contested and that the pendulum could swing either way between the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the burgeoning APC.

     

    Bola Tinubu

     

    Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has established himself as a deft and rare political strategist. In the last two and a half decades, he has built a political bloc that is by far more cohesive, progressive and popular and forward looking than any contemporary Nigerian politician. Tinubu has established himself as a political colossus in the Southwest. He enjoys a large army of followership. Tinubu has re-drawn the political map of the Southwest region in a manner that for the first time, the dominant party in the region now has its tentacles all over the country.

    His journey into politics started when he joined others to found the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP). In 1992, he was elected as Senator of the Federal Republic Nigeria to represent Lagos West Senatorial District. At the National Assembly, he distinguished himself as the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Finance, Appropriation and Currency.

    When the June 12, 1993 Presidential Election was annulled, and a new round of military rule stared the country in the face, Tinubu and others founded the famous pro-democracy group called the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO). The group spearheaded the bitter struggle for the restoration of democracy. He fled the country for safety reasons and teamed up with the group abroad. In 1998, Tinubu returned to Nigeria and in 1999 was elected governor of Lagos State. He won re-election in 2003. It is on record that he was the only governor in the region who survived the massive incursion of the ruling PDP to the Southwest in 2003. He is credited with the restoration of his party’s rebound in the region today.

    To his credit, he is the only visible governor in Nigeria since 1999 who was able to produce a successor, Mr. Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), whose performance and style remain a reference point.

    As one of the arrow heads of the merger of the three leading opposition parties in the country, there is no doubting the fact that he would be one of the politicians who will play a significant role in the political developments in the country in the coming years.

     

    Attahiru Jega

     

    All eyes are on the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and that is saying the least. Nigerians are yet to forget the electoral heist of 2007, in which funny and non-existent character in Nigeria, allegedly voted using the names of famous foreigners like the late Michael Jackson and legendary boxer, Mike Tyson. The new battle cry in electoral circle is one man, one vote.

    The former university don promised in March that the INEC would conduct freer, fairer and more credible elections come 2015. To the average Nigerian, whose subconscious is totally taken over by cynicism when it comes to conducting free and fair election, this may just be sweet, political talk or mere grandstanding.

    Jega gave the assurance in Abuja during the first quarterly meeting of the commission with representatives of registered political parties. The INEC chairman also added that the regular meeting would also make both the commission and the representatives of the political parties “to share information, exchange ideas, discuss mutual concerns and evolve partnership, as well as strengthen the good relationship which exists, in addressing challenges in the electoral process.”

    Jega is seen as an ideologically focused intellectual who leans towards the left. To many, he comes across as a radical. When on April 19, 2010, he was guest lecturer for the NLC May Day 2010 celebration, he harpoed extensively on electoral reforms. According to him, “no doubt, the popular aspirations for credible, free, fair and popularly acceptable elections, which are a fundamental requirement for sustainable democratic development, would remain elusive unless and until we pay serious attention to electoral reforms”.

    Yet, it is held that the electoral body under him, would not be able to play the unbiased umpire. In fact, not long ago, Buhari called for his sack and other top officials of the commission, saying the electoral body, as presently constituted, cannot be trusted to deliver on credible elections. He spoke in London at the 4th British-African Diaspora conference held at the British House of Parliament on the theme “Stable Democracy and Nigeria’s Economy,”. To Buhari, sacking Jega would be a good starting point for fixing Nigeria’s broken electoral system.

    In his words: “All the present indications are that INEC, as it is presently constituted, will not be able to deliver any meaningful elections in 2015”.