Two years into his presidency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has begun to etch a recurring pattern into Nigerian political history—one that seems to surface each time he stands on the cusp of major national transformation. Like a consistent drumbeat preceding the march of progress, resistance, coordinated opposition, and elite sabotage converge just as he pushes forward with policies that seek to change the fundamentals of governance, economics, and public accountability in Nigeria. But if the story of his presidency so far is any indication, this pattern isn’t a sign of regression. Rather, it is the birth pangs of progress—a signal that Nigeria might finally be breaking its old cycles.
When Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023, Nigeria was teetering on the edge of a fiscal cliff. Years of populist but unsustainable economic policies had created an illusion of normalcy, powered by a petrol subsidy that cost over a trillion naira annually and a foreign exchange regime that rewarded arbitrage over productivity. Most new presidents might have delayed tough decisions until after securing a second term. Tinubu did the opposite. On day one, he axed the petrol subsidy. Weeks later, he unified the naira’s exchange rate system, allowing market forces to prevail. These were not just administrative tweaks. They were systemic corrections—actions that required audacity and clarity of purpose.
This wasn’t the first time Tinubu had chosen the difficult path. During his tenure as Governor of Lagos State from 1999 to 2007, Tinubu clashed with the then-federal government under President Olusegun Obasanjo over constitutional questions and fiscal autonomy. His administration’s creation of new Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) was blocked by Abuja, and Lagos was punished with the withholding of statutory allocations. But rather than buckle, Tinubu re-engineered Lagos’ internal revenue generation, built lasting institutions, and set the state on the path to becoming West Africa’s economic nerve center. That story, once doubted and derided, is now widely celebrated.
History, it seems, is rhyming once again.
From his first week in office, Tinubu became a target of opposition maneuvering. The political chorus that includes familiar voices—former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Governors Nasir El-Rufai and Peter Obi—coalesced early in what is clearly a premature coalition against his presidency. Their tactics have been textbook: ethno-regional baiting, scaremongering, and relentless attacks designed to derail public confidence. In times past, such orchestrated hostility has succeeded in distracting presidents and stalling reforms. But Tinubu, calm and unyielding, appears to be unmoved.
This unshaken demeanor is not born of political naiveté; it is a product of experience and strategic patience. Rather than spar with his critics, he has stayed focused on the work of governance, ensuring his administration hits milestone after milestone. And there have been many. Like they say, he who has an appointment does not wait to argue over nothing with someone who has nothing to lose.
His reforms, painful as they are, have begun to yield concrete results. Nigeria’s foreign reserves have rebounded dramatically, jumping from $4 billion in 2023 to over $23 billion in 2024. The fiscal deficit has narrowed, the country’s debt service-to-revenue ratio has improved from nearly 100% to below 40%, and inflation—though still a pressing concern—is beginning to ease. Oil rig counts have surged by over 400%, and the economy is projected to grow by 3.7% in 2025, a rate not seen in nearly a decade.
The administration has also settled a massive N30 trillion Ways and Means loan from the Central Bank, a move that signals a commitment to monetary discipline. With over $8 billion in fresh oil investments and a reenergized drive for tax reforms—raising the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10% to 13.5% in a single year—Nigeria is reclaiming credibility in the eyes of investors. Essential goods like food, education, and healthcare are now exempt from VAT, and low-income households are being buffered through new credit lines, student loans, and expanded nano-business grants.
The presidency has not ignored the social and human angles either. Over 1,000 primary health centers have been revitalized, with more than 5,500 undergoing transformation. Free dialysis, subsidized maternal care, and a jump in health insurance coverage are now defining features of Tinubu’s health sector strategy. In education, the approval of N95.6 billion in student loans is helping indigent students stay in school, while nationwide programs are skilling up youth for the digital economy.
This is not a portrait of a passive or distracted government. It is one of deliberate action, even under intense political fire.
Yet, the more he delivers, the louder the opposition chorus becomes. It almost seems paradoxical. But if we return to the Lagos template, the same paradox was present then. Tinubu’s reforms were radical and transformative—but at every juncture, they invited resistance from entrenched interests. Today, those very reforms form the backbone of modern Lagos.
In many ways, what Tinubu is doing nationally is Lagos 2.0—but at a far more complex scale. He is dismantling patronage networks, eliminating leakages, and pushing forward with decentralization in critical sectors like power. The Electricity Act of 2023, which allows subnational entities to generate and distribute power, is a game-changer that mirrors the autonomy Lagos once fought for.
The regional development commissions now established across all six geopolitical zones are reshaping the national development framework. Infrastructure projects are springing up in every zone, from the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway to the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Dual Carriageway. Meanwhile, over N570 billion in subnational support has gone directly to the states to fund livelihood programs and stimulate local economies.
Tinubu’s critics often underestimate how methodical his governance model is. The President is not reacting; he is engineering. He is laying down systems that are built to last—often quietly, often without fanfare. Whether it’s the introduction of a Tax Ombudsman to ensure equity in the new fiscal regime or the pivot to compressed natural gas (CNG) to reduce import dependency, there is a long-game strategy in motion.
So why does he face so much resistance?
The answer may lie in what Financial Times recently called Nigeria’s “shock therapy.” No one likes surgery—especially without anaesthetic. Tinubu’s reforms, though necessary, have forced elites to give up privileges, and they’ve shaken the status quo. The subsidy regime, the forex manipulation, the excessive central bank lending—these were not just policy errors; they were profit centers for well-connected actors. Dismantling them creates enemies.
But the President appears to understand the moment. He knows that political backlash is not a referendum on reform but a symptom of it. He knows that Nigeria cannot become a prosperous, functioning state without first becoming an honest one. And he is willing to pay the political price to get there.
That, ultimately, is the recurring pattern. Tinubu leads with reforms, the system fights back, but history vindicates him.
The opposition may mass and the voices may grow louder. But if the Lagos story is any guide, then Nigeria may be witnessing the difficult, painful, but necessary path toward renewal. Tinubu is not merely navigating Nigeria’s current challenges—he is positioning the country for future prosperity. And as he enters the third year of his presidency, the signs are increasingly clear: water may indeed be coming out of this hard rock again.
Tinubu is at it again. And history, once more, is watching.
A Week of Reflection and Regional Leadership at Midterm
The just-concluded week was not only momentous for President Tinubu but also for the Nigerian people, it was a natural moment for pause, reflection, and assessment for all. As Nigerians reviewed two years of the Renewed Hope Agenda, President Tinubu remained characteristically immersed in governance, diplomacy, reform, and symbolism.
If the past two years have been defined by bold decisions and structural realignments, then the President’s activities this week embodied both the spirit of review and the resolve to press forward. From the Presidential Villa in Abuja to the glittering halls of Eko Hotel and Suites in Lagos, the President demonstrated continuity in leadership, clarity of vision, and unwavering focus on both domestic and continental obligations.
Governance at Home
The President began his week with critical administrative engagements, notably a closed-door meeting some governors, Ministers and some heads of agencies, among whom was the Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Dr. Zacch Adedeji. It came amidst a controversy involving the Federal Capital Territory Authority’s sealing of a FIRS office over alleged unpaid ground rent. On Tuesday, President Tinubu stepped into the political arena with the presentation of the APC governorship flag to Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu, the party’s candidate for the Anambra 2025 election.
Children’s Day provided a moment of solemn national reflection. Tinubu’s launch of the “See Something, Say Something, Do Something” campaign demonstrated his administration’s deepening focus on social protection systems. With all 36 states now domesticating the Child Rights Act, Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda is making inroads into building a more secure and inclusive society. “Stand Up, Speak Up” wasn’t just the theme of this year’s celebration—it was the ethos of a government that wants children to thrive free from fear and violence.
The President’s Tuesday also saw a string of goodwill messages—congratulating political elders and corporate trailblazers alike. From Hajia Raliat AbdulRazaq at 95 to oil industry leader Mutiu Sunmonu at 70, Tinubu’s tributes often doubled as reminders of Nigeria’s broad legacy of service and excellence.
But it was in Lagos on Wednesday that President Tinubu seized the continental stage with grace and gravitas. As Chairman of the Authority of ECOWAS Heads of State and Government, he graced the golden jubilee celebration of the Economic Community of West African States—ECOWAS@50.
His keynote address was more than ceremonial. It was a sweeping reaffirmation of the bloc’s founding ideals and a call to renew them. “Our region has pioneered free movement, expanded intra-regional trade, and deepened integration,” Tinubu declared. “Let us renew our compact—with courage, clarity, and conviction.”
The President’s speech was rich with policy substance. He paid tribute to the legacy of founding leaders like Gen. Yakubu Gowon, celebrated ECOWAS’s achievements in peacekeeping, trade liberalisation, and democratic governance, and urged fellow leaders to place youth and women at the centre of future integration efforts.
The ECOWAS gathering wasn’t just about history; it was a vision-setting moment. President Tinubu reminded the region that African unity isn’t merely a philosophical aspiration—it is a strategic imperative. With notable absentees like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, the President’s inclusive tone was deliberate: “Don’t push them away. They will come back,” echoed General Gowon—a sentiment Tinubu visibly embraced.
The latter part of the week saw a flurry of activity aimed at deepening institutional reform. On Thursday, President Tinubu established the National Credit Guarantee Company with ₦100 billion in seed capital—another powerful signal that his administration is serious about unlocking credit access for MSMEs and industrial players.
He also announced appointments to 36 new governing councils across Nigeria’s tertiary institutions, following earlier appointments to key universities. These moves reinforce Tinubu’s intent to strengthen leadership across education, the foundation of any nation’s long-term prosperity.
Crowning the week, the President signed an Executive Order to slash costs in Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector, promising tax incentives for efficient operators. The directive, coming at midterm, was no coincidence—it reflected a government ready to transition from foundation-building to consolidation.
In a week steeped in symbolism and substance, President Tinubu did not simply mark time—he used the moment to deepen reforms, rally West Africa, and reaffirm his administration’s trajectory. As Nigeria steps into the second half of his first term, one thing is certain: the President is not looking back.
And for a nation as dynamic as Nigeria, neither should we.
