Tag: Tinubunomics

  • Tinubunomics and the arithmetic of illusion

    Tinubunomics and the arithmetic of illusion

    By Tanimu Yakubu

    A striking feature of Nigeria’s current economic debate is the enthusiasm with which huge numbers are circulated—and the casualness with which they are assembled. Tax collections are added to oil receipts; oil receipts are added again under customs or “subsidy savings”; borrowing is treated as income; and the resulting total is presented as proof of incompetence or theft.

    This is not an economic analysis. It is an arithmetic illusion.

    At the core of most viral critiques of Tinubunomics lies a fundamental failure to distinguish between revenue, cash, and financing, and between federation-wide collections and federal budgetary resources. These are not technicalities. They are the foundation of public finance.

    Revenue is not the same as cash available to the Federal Government. Borrowing is not income; it is financing and creates future obligations. Federation receipts are not equivalent to what the Federal Government can spend.

    Once these distinctions are ignored, any number—no matter how dramatic—can be manufactured.

    The familiar pattern runs as follows. Aggregate tax collections are cited, often correctly, in gross terms. Oil revenues are then added without clarifying whether they are gross or net, federation-wide or federally retained, or whether costs, deductions, and under-recoveries have been netted off. Customs receipts are layered on, sometimes without stating whether they are already embedded in non-oil revenue totals. Borrowing is then added as though it were free money. Finally, “subsidy savings” are thrown into the mix, as if stopping a fiscal leak produces a vault of idle cash.

    The result is a large headline number—N150 trillion, N170 trillion, N180 trillion—followed by the question: where did the money go?

    The answer is straightforward: much of it never existed in the form being implied.

    Subsidy reform, for instance, does not conjure discretionary cash. It closes a hole. Under the old regime, underpricing manifested through arrears, opaque netting, and quasi-fiscal obligations. Reform first eliminates these hidden drains. The fiscal benefit appears gradually—through reduced deficit pressure, better budgeting discipline, and explicit, targeted support—not through a sudden pile of spendable “savings.”

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    Debt figures are similarly abused. A significant portion of Nigeria’s recent increase in debt stock in naira terms reflects exchange-rate revaluation of existing external obligations, not fresh borrowing. When the exchange rate adjusts, the naira value of dollar-denominated debt rises automatically. Treating this accounting effect as new borrowing is a category error, not a discovery.

    Most persistently, federation-wide collections are presented as if they belong solely to the Federal Government. They do not. Revenues in a federation are shared, earmarked, netted, and statutorily allocated. Federal budget reality is determined by FGN retained revenue plus deficit financing, not by gross federation inflows aggregated for political effect.

    Tinubunomics was never a promise of instant abundance. It is a macro-fiscal reset undertaken within hard constraints: inherited debt service, FX realism, security spending, legacy arrears, and competing constitutional obligations. Its logic is structural—restoring price signals, strengthening revenue administration, rebuilding credibility, and re-pricing the public balance sheet while protecting the most vulnerable.

    Those who insist on treating national finance as a household ledger will always find scandal where none exists. But accountability does not begin with social media addiction. It starts with audit logic.

    The proper way to interrogate government performance is simple: examine federal retained revenue; separate it clearly from financing; track expenditure across debt service, personnel, capital, and transfers; and then assess outputs—roads built, power delivered, rail extended, schools and clinics rehabilitated.

    Anything else is not subject to scrutiny. It is a theatre.

    And no amount of theatrical arithmetic can substitute for fiscal discipline.

    • Yakubu is the Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation.

  • Tinubunomics and the arithmetic of illusion

    Tinubunomics and the arithmetic of illusion

    By Tanimu Yakubu

    A striking feature of Nigeria‘s current economic debate is the enthusiasm with which huge numbers are circulated—and the casualness with which they are assembled. Tax collections are added to oil receipts; oil receipts are added again under customs or “subsidy savings”; borrowing is treated as income; and the resulting total is presented as proof of incompetence or theft.

    This is not an economic analysis. It is an arithmetic illusion.

    At the core of most viral critiques of Tinubunomics lies a fundamental failure to distinguish between revenue, cash, and financing, and between federation-wide collections and federal budgetary resources. These are not technicalities. They are the foundation of public finance.

    Revenue is not the same as cash available to the Federal Government. Borrowing is not income; it is financing and creates future obligations. Federation receipts are not equivalent to what the Federal Government can spend.

    Once these distinctions are ignored, any number—no matter how dramatic—can be manufactured.

    The familiar pattern runs as follows. Aggregate tax collections are cited, often correctly, in gross terms. Oil revenues are then added without clarifying whether they are gross or net, federation-wide or federally retained, or whether costs, deductions, and under-recoveries have been netted off. Customs receipts are layered on, sometimes without stating whether they are already embedded in non-oil revenue totals. Borrowing is then added as though it were free money. Finally, “subsidy savings” are thrown into the mix, as if stopping a fiscal leak produces a vault of idle cash.

    The result is a large headline number—₦150 trillion, ₦170 trillion, ₦180 trillion—followed by the question: where did the money go?

    The answer is straightforward: much of it never existed in the form being implied.

    Subsidy reform, for instance, does not conjure discretionary cash. It closes a hole. Under the old regime, underpricing manifested through arrears, opaque netting, and quasi-fiscal obligations. Reform first eliminates these hidden drains. The fiscal benefit appears gradually—through reduced deficit pressure, better budgeting discipline, and explicit, targeted support—not through a sudden pile of spendable “savings.”

    Debt figures are similarly abused. A significant portion of Nigeria’s recent increase in debt stock in naira terms reflects exchange-rate revaluation of existing external obligations, not fresh borrowing. When the exchange rate adjusts, the naira value of dollar-denominated debt rises automatically. Treating this accounting effect as new borrowing is a category error, not a discovery.

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    Most persistently, federation-wide collections are presented as if they belong solely to the Federal Government. They do not. Revenues in a federation are shared, earmarked, netted, and statutorily allocated. Federal budget reality is determined by FGN retained revenue plus deficit financing, not by gross federation inflows aggregated for political effect.

    Tinubunomics was never a promise of instant abundance. It is a macro-fiscal reset undertaken within hard constraints: inherited debt service, FX realism, security spending, legacy arrears, and competing constitutional obligations. Its logic is structural—restoring price signals, strengthening revenue administration, rebuilding credibility, and re-pricing the public balance sheet while protecting the most vulnerable.

    Those who insist on treating national finance as a household ledger will always find scandal where none exists. But accountability does not begin with social media addiction. It starts with audit logic.

    The proper way to interrogate government performance is simple: examine federal retained revenue; separate it clearly from financing; track expenditure across debt service, personnel, capital, and transfers; and then assess outputs—roads built, power delivered, rail extended, schools and clinics rehabilitated.

    Anything else is not subject to scrutiny. It is a theatre. And no amount of theatrical arithmetic can substitute for fiscal discipline.

    – Yakubu is the Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation.

  • Tinubunomics never promised instant abundance — Budget Office DG

    Tinubunomics never promised instant abundance — Budget Office DG

    • …faults “arithmetic illusion” in viral revenue claims
    • …explains subsidy reform, debt figures, and limits of federal spending power

    Tinubunomics was never a promise of instant abundance but a deliberate macro-fiscal reset undertaken within hard constraints, the Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Tanimu Yakubu, has said.

    Yakubu made the clarification in a detailed policy note titled “Tinubunomics and the Arithmetic of Illusion,” where he cautioned against what he described as a growing tendency in public discourse to assemble large headline numbers without respecting the fundamentals of public finance.

    According to him, much of the criticism directed at the fiscal framework of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu stems from a failure to distinguish between revenue, cash and financing, as well as between federation-wide collections and what the Federal Government actually retains and can spend.

    “Tinubunomics was never a promise of instant abundance. It is a macro-fiscal reset undertaken within hard constraints: inherited debt service, FX realism, security spending, legacy arrears, and competing constitutional obligations”, Yakubu said.

    He argued that viral claims suggesting the Federal Government had access to ₦150 trillion or more were built on what he called “arithmetic illusion,” not economic analysis.

    “Borrowing is not income; it is financing and creates future obligations. Federation receipts are not equivalent to what the Federal Government can spend. Once these distinctions are ignored, any number—no matter how dramatic—can be manufactured”, Yakubu explained.

    The Budget Office chief outlined a familiar pattern in such critiques, where aggregate tax collections are added to oil revenues without clarifying whether the figures are gross or net, federation-wide or federally retained, and whether costs and deductions have been accounted for. 

    Customs receipts, he noted, are often double-counted, while borrowing is presented “as though it were free money.”

    On fuel subsidy reform, Yakubu stressed that the policy did not create a sudden pool of discretionary cash, contrary to popular belief.

    “Subsidy reform does not conjure discretionary cash. It closes a hole. Under the old regime, underpricing manifested through arrears, opaque netting, and quasi-fiscal obligations. Reform first eliminates these hidden drains. The fiscal benefit appears gradually, not through a sudden pile of spendable ‘savings’”, he said.

    He also addressed misconceptions around Nigeria’s rising debt stock, noting that a significant portion of the increase in naira terms was due to exchange-rate revaluation of existing foreign-currency obligations, not fresh borrowing.

    “When the exchange rate adjusts, the naira value of dollar-denominated debt rises automatically,” Yakubu said, adding that treating this accounting effect as new borrowing was “a category error.”

    Yakubu emphasised that in a federation, revenues are shared and statutorily allocated, and that federal budget reality is determined by retained revenue plus deficit financing, not by gross inflows aggregated for political effect.

    He urged Nigerians to assess government performance using proper audit logic: examining federal retained revenue, separating it from financing, tracking expenditure across debt service, personnel, capital and transfers, and then evaluating concrete outputs.

    “Anything else is not scrutiny. It is a theatre. And no amount of theatrical arithmetic can substitute for fiscal discipline”, he said.

  • Tinubunomics: Picturing the gains of his hard work in facts and figures

    Tinubunomics: Picturing the gains of his hard work in facts and figures

    As the Easter holiday weekend closed out a critical week for Nigeria, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu remained away from the country on his working visit to Europe. Yet, even in absentia, the President’s influence loomed large over both national discourse and the machinery of state, with developments on the economic front pointing to hard-won gains — and on the security front, a renewed urgency to quell growing threats.

    While cynics may remain unconvinced, the facts about Nigeria’s economic turnaround under President Tinubu are becoming harder to ignore. In an emphatic social media breakdown during the week, O’tega Ogra, Senior Special Assistant on Digital and New Media, laid out facts and figures about the wins in the economic sector, including seven key economic indicators that capture the tangible impact of the Tinubu administration’s policy direction — and they paint a picture of steady recovery and renewed investor confidence.

    Most strikingly, Nigeria’s total debt stock — comprising federal, state, and FCT borrowings — has declined from $108.2 billion to $94.2 billion as of December 31, 2024. In a global climate still grappling with post-pandemic economic shocks, such a reduction is no small feat. It is further bolstered by the successful clearance of a $7 billion verified foreign exchange backlog, an albatross that had previously stifled investor engagement and hindered trade flows.

    Despite these repayments, Nigeria’s gross external reserves have grown to approximately $40.9 billion, up from $33 billion in 2023. More impressively, net external reserves have seen a massive 482.5% increase — from $4 billion to $23.3 billion. These are the fruits of not just prudent fiscal management, but deliberate macroeconomic reforms aimed at repositioning Nigeria as a viable investment destination.

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    The country also recorded a balance of payments surplus of $6.83 billion in 2024, reversing deficits of over $3 billion in each of the two previous years. “This reflects stronger trade performance and increased investor confidence,” Ogra noted. Non-oil exports surged by 24.6% to $7.46 billion, while gas exports rose by 48.3% to $8.66 billion, helping drive Nigeria’s overall trade surplus.

    Equally noteworthy is the revival of portfolio investment inflows, a direct indicator of investor sentiment, which more than doubled, rising by 106.5% to $13.35 billion. This marks a clear vote of confidence in the administration’s fiscal discipline and policy direction.

    And in a stirring show of belief in the motherland, the Nigerian Diaspora followed suit. Remittances rose by 8.9% to $20.93 billion, complemented by a 43.5% increase in inflows via International Money Transfer Operators, now at $4.73 billion. “Thank you, dear Nigerians in the Diaspora, for believing in your country,” Ogra wrote, a sentiment echoed by many who view these figures as evidence of renewed hope taking root.

    In the President’s own words, as contained in his Easter message to the nation on Friday, “We are grateful to all Nigerians for your patience and resilience as our economy begins to show encouraging signs of recovery… We are working tirelessly to restore investor confidence, stabilise key sectors, and build an inclusive economy.”

    Still, as the numbers shine on paper, realities on the ground remain sobering, particularly on the security front. The week saw a resurgence of brutal violence in parts of Plateau State, continuing a cycle of bloodshed that has plagued the region for decades. In a strongly-worded statement on Monday, President Tinubu expressed sorrow over the attacks, which claimed more than 50 lives, and condemned the recurring violence rooted in long-standing communal tensions.

    “The ongoing violence between communities in Plateau State, rooted in misunderstandings between different ethnic and religious groups, must cease,” the President stated. “Enough is enough.”

    He disclosed that security agencies have been instructed to investigate the recent attacks thoroughly and identify those responsible. But the President also took the conversation further, calling on Plateau State Governor Caleb Mutfwang to take up the mantle of leadership in addressing the root causes of the conflict.

    “These problems have been with us for more than two decades. We can no longer ignore the underlying issues. It is time to tackle them fairly and find a lasting solution,” Tinubu said, adding that he has held multiple conversations with Governor Mutfwang on the matter.

    His words underscore a broader concern: while economic indicators improve, the threat of insecurity could undercut those gains if left unchecked. Beyond Plateau, intelligence and other reports have revealed a resurgence of terrorist activities in the Northeast, and a disturbing spread of criminality in other parts of the country.

    It was against this backdrop that the President’s Easter message struck a chord. “Let me assure you that my administration’s resolve to restore peace and security remains unshakable,” he said. “Forces of evil will never prevail over our country.”

    Tinubu revealed that he has issued “clear directives to the Armed Forces and all relevant security agencies to end insecurity decisively and without delay.” He added, “with the unwavering courage and commitment of our gallant men and women in uniform, we are turning the tide and making steady progress in reclaiming peace and stability.”

    These statements are not just rhetorical. Even while away in Europe, the President has maintained constant communication with his security and intelligence chiefs. The Presidency on Thursday confirmed that Tinubu remains fully engaged with national affairs, giving directives and receiving briefings in real-time from Paris and later London.

    From economic stabilization to security escalation, this past week encapsulates the dual challenge that faces the Tinubu administration: sustaining the current momentum on the economic front while decisively addressing the nation’s security challenges. But in both arenas, there are signs of seriousness and structure, the hallmarks of purposeful governance.

    Critics may question the timelines or doubt the methods, but for many Nigerians, there is an unmistakable shift in tone and substance under this administration. One that recognises that governance is not a sprint, but a marathon, and that progress, while often slow, is real when built on foundations of competence, clarity, and conviction.

    As the nation continues its slow but steady march towards stability and growth, President Tinubu’s message this Easter may serve as both a prayer and a promise: “Just as Christ triumphed over death, so too shall our country triumph over every challenge we face… The present moment may be cloudy, but it will usher in a glorious day.”

    Indeed, for many Nigerians, the sun may already be peeking through.

    As President Tinubu continues to steer the nation through the complex process of national restructuring, his activities in the past week reflected not only resolve, but a clear-eyed focus on laying durable foundations for a prosperous, secure and data-informed Nigeria. From declarations of national urgency to dignified recognitions of outstanding Nigerians, President Tinubu demonstrated that governance, under his leadership, remains multifaceted and deeply purposeful.

    Besides his intervention on the Plateau crisis and his assurances in his Easter message, the other event at the heart of his week’s engagements was the inauguration of the Presidential Committee on the National Population and Housing Census, a significant step toward Nigeria’s long-overdue census. The last comprehensive national headcount took place in 2006, nearly two decades ago. Since then, demographic shifts, migration patterns, urbanization, and socioeconomic realities have drastically changed the national landscape.

    Inaugurated on Wednesday at the State House, the committee has been tasked with delivering an interim report within three weeks. President Tinubu, represented by his Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, stressed the pivotal role of a credible, technology-driven census in national planning and development.

    “You cannot budget if you do not know how many we are,” he noted emphatically, charging the committee to work closely with the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning. The President’s insistence on deploying biometrics and digital tools underlines a modern, forward-thinking approach, one that ensures transparency, inclusivity, and accuracy.

    The committee, chaired by the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu, comprises key government figures including the Minister of Finance, the Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), and the Director-General of the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC).

    Indeed, as Nigeria seeks to reset its economic, infrastructural, and social compass, such a data-driven exercise is not just timely, it is indispensable.

    While the census dominated the policy space, President Tinubu also took bold steps on food security, declaring a national emergency on Monday. At the 6th African Regional Conference on Irrigation and Drainage in Abuja, the President, represented by SGF George Akume, emphasized the urgency of expanding irrigation infrastructure and embracing participatory water resource management.

    This move comes at a time when global food supply chains remain fragile and local agricultural productivity requires immediate strengthening. The declaration signals the administration’s recognition of food security not just as a matter of survival, but of national strategy.

    True to his inclusive governance style, the President also found time to honour exceptional Nigerians whose lives and work inspire others. On Sunday, he celebrated the 65th birthday of businessman and industrialist Tunde Folawiyo, praising him as a beacon of entrepreneurial excellence and a committed champion of Nigeria’s economic progress.

    Midweek, he extended similar honours to Dr. Oladele Fajemirokun, marking his 75th birthday with a tribute that lauded his legacy across insurance, telecommunications, oil and gas, and philanthropy.

    In the realm of international recognition, President Tinubu hailed Mo Abudu’s inclusion in TIME Magazine’s 2025 list of the 100 Most Influential People in the World. He celebrated the media mogul’s achievements as a “global affirmation of African excellence” and a source of national pride. Abudu’s storytelling and cultural diplomacy continue to elevate Nigeria’s image on the world stage, and the President’s commendation reinforced his support for the creative industry’s global aspirations.

    From moving to halt needless killings and destruction to statistical recalibration to food security, and from celebrating visionary leaders to supporting global icons, the week was a microcosm of Tinubu’s broader national vision—one grounded in resilience, inclusion, and forward motion.

    As he moves forward with his agenda of restructuring, the President’s assurance that Nigerians will live in peace, security, and prosperity appears increasingly anchored in deliberate planning and strategic action. With data as the new oil, and national unity as the refining force, Tinubu’s recent activities underscore a government gearing up not just for today’s challenges but tomorrow’s possibilities.

    He is expected back in the country this week from his closet reflections, with new ideas and plans, which will be unveiling in coming weeks and months. We all must wait to experience what more he has for the nation.

  • Obasanjo’s platitudes on Tinubunomics

    Obasanjo’s platitudes on Tinubunomics

    Former president Olusegun Obasanjo has surprisingly been tame taking the Bola Tinubu administration to the cleaners over the current economic crisis. But at the Paul Aje Colloquium last week, he was scathing all the same, accusing the administration of being less than savvy in responding to the economic challenges of the day. He acknowledged that the administration had correctly identified the country’s economic problems, but he insisted that its response left much to be desired. It was necessary, the former president admitted grimly, for President Tinubu to tackle the issue of fuel subsidy and exchange rate crisis. However, instead of focusing on “production and productivity, which belief and trust in government leadership will engender,” the administration had been unable to “gain the confidence and trust of investors who have alternatives.” In short, the former president was simply being platitudinous.

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    On the exchange rate crisis, Chief Obasanjo said “Tinkering with the exchange rate is not the answer. The answer is consistency and continuity in policy to ensure stability and predictability.” This was again more platitudes. If, as he said, productivity and production had yet to be revved up, how on earth could the administration avoid some ‘tinkering’, if indeed the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was tinkering? In short, Chief Obasanjo had nothing to say. He of course has the right to speak up on national issues, part of it from experience. But whatever he says must make sense and carry weight. Did he, for instance, consider how complicating to the country’s economic crisis the over N30trn printed by the previous administration was? As he said in his contribution, there are no short cuts; but his platitudinous statements were exactly that.