Against the long and troubled backdrop of Nigeria’s democratic journey, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration is deliberately reshaping the Fourth Republic through bold, pro-people reforms aimed at restoring economic justice, strengthening institutions and rebuilding citizens’ faith in democracy, the Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication, Mr. Sunday Dare, has said.
Dare, a former Minister spoke on Thursday at the Daily Trust Public Lecture on “Nigeria’s Fourth Republic: What Is Working and What Is Not”, held at the NAF Conference Centre, Abuja, where he delivered a sweeping historical and policy-focused assessment of Nigeria’s governance trajectory and the Tinubu administration’s response to inherited crises.
Describing democracy as a “learning curve rather than a straight line”, Dare said Nigeria’s Fourth Republic remains the country’s longest and most sustained democratic experiment, surviving challenges that truncated previous republics.
“The Fourth Republic is not significant because it is flawless,” he said, “but because it represents Nigeria’s most enduring attempt to permanently entrench democratic ideals, institutions and ethos.”
Heavy historical burden
Tracing Nigeria’s democratic fragility to the First Republic, when politics was driven by identity rather than ideology, leading to ethnic rivalry, disputed elections and eventual collapse, he noted that the civil war was the tragic outcome of failed democratic arbitration and unresolved fears of exclusion.
He added that post-war reintegration policies, the oil boom of the 1970s and years of military rule compounded the problem, creating a rent-seeking economy detached from productivity stressing that “by the late 1990s, Nigeria was politically and economically exhausted.”
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According to Dare, the Fourth Republic, inaugurated in 1999, inherited these deep structural flaws, worsened by Niger Delta militancy, Boko Haram insurgency, banditry and a rapidly growing population unsupported by a viable economic model and by 2023, when President Tinubu assumed office, Nigeria faced a perfect storm: runaway inflation, multiple exchange rates, crippling fuel subsidies, soaring debt, weak investor confidence and an economy driven more by consumption than productivity.
“Debt servicing was swallowing over 90 per cent of federal revenue, the Central Bank printed over ₦30 trillion through Ways and Means. Inflation surged above 33 per cent. Manufacturing had collapsed: President Tinubu had his job cut out for him from day one,” he said.
What is working in the Fourth Republic
Despite these challenges, Dare said Nigeria’s democracy has recorded measurable gains that set the Fourth Republic apart.
Pointing out that risks of democratic breakdown have sharply decreased after over 26 uninterrupted years of civilian rule, he also highlighted the institutionalisation of electoral dispute resolution through the judiciary, with more than 80 per cent of major election disputes since 1999 settled in court rather than through extra-constitutional means.
He also said that voter registration has expanded significantly, civic space has widened through technology and internet penetration while the media has become a powerful accountability force imposing political costs on failure, adding that policy continuity has improved through debt frameworks, sovereign wealth mechanisms and medium-term expenditure planning.
Tinubu’s “audacity of reform”
According to Sunday Dare, President Tinubu’s defining response to Nigeria’s Fourth Republic crisis has been the courage to confront structural injustice head-on.
“President Tinubu did not inherit a perfect economy; he inherited a structurally unjust system marked by elite currency arbitrage, subsidy capture and fiscal indiscipline. He dared to pull the trigger,” Dare said.
By unifying the exchange rate, removing fuel subsidies and restoring fiscal discipline, the administration corrected not only economic distortions but also moral and democratic ones, he argued.
Asserting that the outcomes are increasingly visible, he stated that inflation, which peaked at 33.38 per cent in 2024, has declined steadily into the mid-teens and GDP growth has improved to about 4 per cent, with international projections placing Nigeria among the faster-growing emerging markets, ahead of several advanced economies.
Reeling out data, he stated that under Tinubu, non-oil trade recorded a ₦6.1 trillion surplus, external reserves rebounded to about $43 billion, and Nigeria exited the FATF grey list, restoring global financial credibility, and that by 2025, Nigeria recorded its highest balance of trade surplus in 15 years, with a positive balance of payments position and a significant rise in manufactured exports and petroleum production.
“Growth improved from 3.2–3.4% to around 4.0–4.1%, with the World Bank projecting about 4.4% if reforms continue. According to the IMF 2026 projections, Nigeria’s 4.4% growth compares favourably with the United States (2.4%), Germany (1.1%), United Kingdom (1.3%). Nigeria now ranks in the upper tier of emerging-market growth, achieved through correction rather than commodity windfalls.
“A ₦6.1 trillion non-oil trade surplus signals reduced import dependence and improved competitiveness, external reserves was rebuilt to about $43bn, reflecting improved FX inflows and reduced arbitrage leakage, Nigeria’s removal from the FATF grey list restored institutional credibility and reduced financial friction, FX unification dismantled a decades-long policy-enabled arbitrage regime that rewarded access over productivity and Nigeria moved from fiscal denial to fiscal disclosure—strengthening budget realism and accountability.
“Balance of Trade reached its highest in 15 years with ₦19.34 trillion surplus by September 2025 (about $18 billion), balance of payments moved from $3.32bn deficit in 2022 to an over $8bn surplus in 2025, foreign reserves climbed from $3.5bn in 2023 to $45.4bn in 2025, ₦30tn was securitized from Ways & Means and the 70% gap in Naira Arbitrage was in 2023 got reduced to 2% in 2025.
