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Tag: Tomasz Wisniewski

  • Worse NFP can potentially trigger a good buy signal on the Gold

    Worse NFP can potentially trigger a good buy signal on the Gold

    Second half of the October was for Gold. The price was declining almost every day and was close to create a major sell signal in the mid-term. Fundamentally, the main two reasons for this downswing were the risk on mode on the markets, negatively affecting the safe heavens and the stronger USD. The risk on mode itself would not be such a big problem alone as the gold dealt with that in the past but the appreciation of the Green back was really negatively affecting the price of the XAUSUD as the correlation between the USD Index and the Gold is significant.

    Currently the buyers are defending on the last crucial support here so they still have some hope. This support is created by few bullish elements. First of all, we do have a black up trendline here (connecting higher lows since the end of 2016). Second factor is the blue down trendline (connecting lower highs since the July 2016), which was broken in August and now can be used as a support. In addition to that, we do have two important Fibonacci lines, 61,8% of the latest upswing (brown) and the 38,2% of the main trend (light blue). All that coming together creates an 8 USD wide support and is marked with a green colour on the chart.

    We can see that the price bounced from this level but that is not significant enough to trigger a buy signal. First of all, the bullish reversal is closed inside a flag (blue lines), which in this case is still bearish. In addition to that, we are below the red line, which is a strong resistance connecting recent lower highs. The buy signal will be created, when the price will close a day above that one. Chance for that will appear later today as the NFP data from US is about to hit the screen and the lower number can be a bullish factor here.

    Tomasz Wisniewski
    Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

    Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

  • Bitcoin after the second hard fork goes for the new all time highs

    Bitcoin after the second hard fork goes for the new all time highs

    Another hard fork on the Bitcoin is already behind us. This time it allowed to create Bitcoin Gold (First hard fork created Bitcoin Cash).

    It happened in 24th of October and did not cause any bigger changes in the volatility or the price. For the past few days the price was moving very technically just like nothing significant ever happened here.

    Since Monday, after reaching the all time highs over the weekend, the price was undergoing a bearish correction and apparently it already ended on Wednesday. During the downswing, the price created a wedge formation (purple lines). Wedge is a trend continuation pattern and it suggested us an eventual comeback to the up trend. That optimistic view was also supported by the fact that the price reached and bounced from the long-term up trendline (red) connecting the higher lows since the middle of September (lows after the latest heavy drop on the BTC).

    The actual buy signal was triggered yesterday when the price broke the resistance on the 5770 USD (green area).  Breaking that level opens us a way to the new all time highs. Currently the green area is the closest support. Positive scenario for Bitcoin will be denied in the mid-term, once the price will break the red line but chances for that are now limited.

     

    Tomasz Wisniewski

    Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

    Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

    The Alpari brand

    Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.

  • Perspectives for the USD

    Perspectives for the USD

    There is a chance that USD will end this week positively, triggering a mid-term signal for a correction. For instance on two main pairs with the USD, so EURUSD and GBPUSD we do have a potential for a double top formation and on the USDJPY the price made a false bearish breakout and is now aiming higher. To estimate the chances of the USD for a further appreciation, let’s look at the Dollar Index.

    USD
    USD

    Here we are still in the long-term downtrend (lower lows and lower highs) but first attempt to end that was already made – the price broke the down trendline (black) and is heading significantly higher. Unfortunately there is a bit to early for a buy signal yet. What the price have to do to trigger it is to break the 92.6 resistance (blue colour). That one played and important role in August and September and now restricts the price from the top.

    Interestingly, in the same place as the blue horizontal resistance we do have a correction equality pattern (grey rectangles). As we can see, those two previous corrections (in August) were almost the same in term of the depth. If we assume that we are now bouncing from the 92,6, the third one will be the same too! That being said, we can see that the 92,6 is crucial here and as long as we are below that level there is no buy signal yet. Actually we can have quite the opposite so sellers can use that as a good resistance and start selling again, dragging USD into the another bearish wave.

    Tomasz Wisniewski
    Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

    Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

    The Alpari brand
    Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.
    Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.

  • Long-term perspectives for Gold

    Long-term perspectives for Gold

    What a year that is for Gold! Since the beginning of the 2017 we have almost constant upswing, which as for now, managed to lift the price around 200$/oz higher. This situation pleasures us as the bullish outlook on this precious metal was one of our main points in the special report with forecast for the 2017, which we created for the Alpari clients.

    Short and mid-term up trend is pretty clear but what the situation looks like when we look on a longer horizon like for example few years? Well, without further introduction we can firmly claim that the outlook is bullish. Our positive view on gold is based on the fact that since the 2011 till the August 2018 we had an enormous wedge formation (blue lines), which in this case has a potential to be a trend continuation pattern of the upswing seen for many years before the top in the 2011. So basically the gold was climbing sharply for decades, made all time highs in 2011, then experienced a correction, which apparently ended last month. Yes, that is pretty much our outlook on XAUUSD.

    As for now, the closest resistance is the yellow area around the 1380$/oz. The chances that we will eventually get there are very high. Maybe not in September but the price should gradually follow this path and reach that target climbing higher while making sequences of higher highs and higher lows.  The closest support is the green area around the psychological barrier on the 1300 USD/oz (green) but the positive sentiment will be alive as long as we will stay above the upper line of the wedge, which is significantly below that horizontal support.

    Tomasz Wisniewski

    Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

    Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

    The Alpari brand

    Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.

    Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.

  • SP500 in a positive territory ahead of the Friday’s NFP data

    SP500 in a positive territory ahead of the Friday’s NFP data

    SP500 is on a best way to set new all time highs… again. That was not so clear as fas as few days ago, when we had a strong risk aversion caused by increased tensions over the Korean Peninsula. North Korea fired missiles which flew over the territory of Japan. Markets were griped by the fear but mild response from the US without a ‘Fire and Fury’ scenario was taken very optimistic by the markets.

    All save heavens were quickly dumped and stocks bounced. SP500 did not stop the correction in the random place. The downswing was terminated exactly on the long-term up trendline (red). Rising price created a right shoulder of the iH&S formation. In addition to that, we were inside of the flag formation, which was a very bullish sign. The upper line of the flag was in the same time the neckline so we should not be surprised that the breakout there triggered a significant buy signal and that traders respected that by climbing higher. The neckline was broken and later defended as a closest support,which increases the chances for a mid-term bullish success.

    The current sentiment is positive. The closest resistance is the 2482. With the current situation the chances that we will make new all time highs are very high.

    Tomasz Wisniewski
    Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

    Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

    The Alpari brand
    Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.

    Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.

  • EURUSD: Getting ready to make new yearly highs.

    EURUSD: Getting ready to make new yearly highs.

    Jackson Hole Symposium starts today and this will definitely help to spice up the trading as data wise the calendar was rather empty. When we do not have much data in the calendar there is always one point, actually a person, that we can count on – Donald Trump. His words are very often influential for the USD and this week he triggered bigger movements talking about a possible Government shutdown and about terminating the NAFTA deal. This week USD had better and worse days but generally, at the end of the week, traders have a bearish sentiment towards the USD.

    The negative approach to the USD can be seen especially on the EURUSD. Here we broke the upper line of the flag (bullish trend continuation pattern) and went to test the local resistance on the 1.183 (blue). The first test was negative and the pair fell sharply. Yesterday buyers made the first step for another test – they retraced almost the whole drop that we experienced on Tuesday. In addition to that, movements seen in the last two days allowed to create a right shoulder of the Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern (SHS on the chart). So we do have two bullish formations here, flag and iH&S working together. If we are going to add to that a bullish trend in overall and a bounce from the 1.169 support (pink), we get a nice positive mixture on the EURUSD.

    As long as we stay below the 1.183 resistance there is no clear buy signal yet. Breakout of this level should be perceived as an invitation to go long. Positive sentiment on this pair will stay as long as the price will hold above the 1.169 support.

    Tomasz Wisniewski

    Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

    Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

    The Alpari brand

    Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands in the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.

    Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.

     

  • Perspectives for the price of Oil

    Perspectives for the price of Oil

    Since the beginning of the August, the price of the Oil is declining. Interestingly, since the beginning of the August, USD started the appreciation. So is the decline in the Oil a result of a stronger Dollar? Well, yes and no. Definitely it has an influence there but for example if we look at gold or other commodities we do not see this weakness. There must be something else here.

    First of all, let us look at the macro data. What we got this week was Wednesday EIA Crude Oil Stocks change. The number came very bullish. The draw was much bigger than expected and the number of -8.9M should be normally a very good sign for the buyers. It was the largest draw in over a year! What is more, the actual number was lower than the expectations in the last 6 out of 7 weeks. So why the price of the WTI went lower? The answer in this case is the supply. Report showed a rise in gasoline inventories by 22,000 barrels and rise in distillate stockpiles by 702,000 barrels. Not to mention the fact that crude oil production increased to 9.502 million barrels per day. In other words: supply is huge and is still growing.

    That is EIA but we also do have an OPEC, which does not have any good idea to stop the price from falling apart from the more jawboning and other verbal interventions. To wrap the fundamentals up, it does not look good for the buyers.

    From the technical point of view, the situation is not great either. What we do have here is the breakout of the up trendline (blue), which was later used as a closest resistance. What is more, we went below the 38,2% Fibonacci and used that as a resistance as well. Before that we bounced of the 61,8%, broke the 50% and 48.15 USD/bbl slightly below. Those supports were crashed quite easily, showing a bullish weakness.

    The sentiment stays bearish as long as we are below the 48,15 resistance (yellow). Chances for a further downswing are now much bigger than for a rise.

    Tomasz Wisniewski
    Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

    Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

    The Alpari brand
    Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.

    Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.

  • Is there a common thing for every successful trader?

    Is there a common thing for every successful trader?

    Luckily, YES, there is. All right, so if there is one, your job is to just implement it to your trading and you will become a profitable Wolf of Wall Street. Sounds easy right? That is the beauty of trading. It is really very easy, the thing is to keep it that way. Most of the traders try to complicate it, obviously totally unnecessary. So what is this common thing? Is everybody of them super smart? No. Were they having a huge capital from the very beginning? No. Did everybody go through an ultimate failure (huge stop-out for example)? No.

    This is the money management. On this world you have thousands of traders who earn money. Constantly, quarter over quarter, year over year. Their strategies are totally different! I would say that everybody has its own. So is it the strategy that makes them special? No. What is common for them is the money management and the risk control. What they all do is that on the first place they limit the risk and increase the probability of their entries. If they win, they win big, if they loose they loose small. One trade cannot make them or break them.

    When they enter the market, they enter with a position size that is carefully calculated and fulfils all the strict requirements that they have in their system. There is absolutely no exceptions from that, whatsoever. By being strict there and by having money management rules you make your head free and you eliminate almost all negative emotions from your trading. You know that you cannot get too aggressive or too scared, you cannot hesitate or go too crazy. That is what makes you a better trader. You become a machine, executing trades flawlessly and pushing forward with your equity line.

    One important thing. By having those rules strict, so for example not risking more than 1-2% of your equity on one trade, you allow yourself to have few losses in a row and still be safe with your account. If you will go too aggressive and risk 5% of your equity per trade, after few losses in a row you will start feeling pressure. Believe me, even the best traders have worse periods and they get five or even ten losses in a row. Disciplined trader with money management rules will survive that and come back stronger. Trader without rules will become just a history.

    Tomasz Wisniewski
    Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

    Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

    The Alpari brand
    Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.
    Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.

  • What skills should I have to trade profitably?

    What skills should I have to trade profitably?

    If you want to be a trader, you do not need any special set of skills. If you want to be a profitable trader, that changes the situation and then, the certain amount of work is required. Do not worry though. That is totally doable and literally everybody can do it.

    First thing is the knowledge itself. Many thing that this is a 70% of the success but in reality it is around 30%. You really do not need to know everything about everything. You do not need a specific, detailed knowledge about the CPI or CCI. No need for that. You will be just fine with the basic from economy and basic understanding of the price movements. You will see by yourself. At the end of the day the simplicity wins here and every professional trader can admit that after years and years of looking for a Holy Grail.

    Another thing is discipline. Yes, traders need to be disciplined as soldiers or monks. OK, maybe not this much but as traders you will have to obey rules and do exactly what your system is telling you. There is no other option there and no place for insubordination.

    Patience. That is a next one, not less important than the previous ones. Traders wait patiently for the best signal possible. They do not chase the market or open whatever they see. They do a proper market analysis and pick only the best setups from all the charts. After that, they patiently wait for the signal. That is not the end. When in position, they are also patient. They are not distracted by the random movements but patiently wait for the situation to develop. There is no place for unpredictable movements or stupid, rapid decisions. Patience wins the day.

    Ability to deal with losses and winnings. Cold head. That is a large part of the most important thing in making profits – traders psychology. Profitable trader is not touched by the loses he makes and is not excited by the winnings either. Good trader knows that losses and wins comes together. He knows that in the long term he can make profits. He knows that losses are small and winnings are big. He knows that only following the system and not getting too excited helps him to earn money. Once you will start to be emotional about money you are done. There is no place for emotions here. If you want to be a good trader, you need to trade like a machine. All you need is to closely analyse charts and flawlessly execute trades. That is all what it takes to be a Pro.

    As you can see from this article, there is no magic stuff in becoming a trader, no fireworks. It is just work you have to do in order to make profits. It is all possible and mostly it is up to you if you want it or not. You don’t have to spend extra money or travel to random places. You just need to spent some time on you but it all should be eventually rewarded!

    Tomasz Wisniewski
    Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

    Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

    The Alpari brand
    Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.
    Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.

  • When should I take profits when trading?

    When should I take profits when trading?

    Profits – usually the first thing that you think about when trading. I guess that you even thought about that before you started on a demo or a real account. Well, I am not surprised, I had the same. Let’s be honest, 95% of people that start trading think about profits. That is their driver and the main market magnet.

    Although we think about profits, we do not think about them strategically and technically. We just want them to be big. OK, fair enough, I would like to buy a new car too but how big should they be? Where should I aim? Should I close my position now or risk till tomorrow or the next week? Should I wait for the support or close on a resistance? Those and many more questions will be now answered.

    First of all, you should know that (potential profits from the trade) before you open a position! Before you hit the buy/sell button, you should estimate if the position has a desired risk to reward ratio. You should aim for the positions where you risk little to win big. Stop loss order should be relatively low and the potential take profit order far from the entry. If your average win will be twice as big as your loss you can be right only 50% of the time and still earn money! You must admit that this sounds encouraging. OK, but how should You define the potential profit ? You need to perform a proper technical analysis of that particular instrument. Mark all important supports and resistances. In case of a long position, you aim to buy as close to the support (to have tight stop loss) and as far as possible from the resistance, where you can (can, not will!) look for profits.

    Should You close the position immediately when it hits desired level? In my opinion – no. I do not do that. When I enter a trade with a trend, which is going in my direction, I let this trade go with the flow. I protect my profits by moving stop loss to break even point (where loss is no longer possible) and after the movement goes further, I continue following it with my protective order. Price hits the resistance and what is next? Nothing, I wait for the price action. If the trend is strong, there are chances that resistance will be broken easily and the price will go significantly higher. I want to open myself for this opportunity. Worth every penny. On the other hand, if the resistance will work and the price will retrace, I will close my position with a defensive order which is usually below the latest significant support (much higher than the entry point).

    In trading, trend is your friend, always. If you go with the trend, open yourself for ‘home run’ trades. Those long runs can make you. Can give you profits that big, that you will be protected even for 5 losses (if your money management is good). Give your trade a chance to develop, give it a place to move. In the same time, do not be too greedy. Remember that even strong trends have corrections. Do not think that 500 pips movement will be continued for 500 pips more without a correction. It happens but not very often. Sometimes it is better to get that 500 pips, close the position and re enter after the correction. That is a higher level of speculation but I think that you will eventually get there.

    Tomasz Wisniewski
    Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

    Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

    The Alpari brand
    Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.
    Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.