Tag: Trump

Basically, Trump tariffs and ‘Liberation Day’ declaration have again exposed Nigeria’s lack of preparedness and institutional memory. In 1967, the same Nigeria demonstrated remarkable foresight and brilliance in responding to the British Pound Sterling devaluation, leaving the British government bewildered. Some British cabinet members weren’t even aware of the devaluation until after it happened, privately wondering if Nigeria had an insider within their ranks.

Nigeria’s lack of preparedness for Donald Trump’s presidency is especially noteworthy, given the publication of ‘Project 2025’, a manifesto by the American Right that forms a significant base of the Trump Movement, months before Trump secured the Republican presidential nomination. It’s puzzling that Nigeria didn’t assemble a team of experts, including econometricians, international trade specialists, accountants, lawyers and foreign policy analysts to anticipate and develop potential responses to a Trump victory.

Talking seriously, Nigeria’s problem since suspending the 1963 Republican Constitution has been its reliance on a rentier state driven by consumption rather than production. In the past, notable projects like the Cocoa House, Liberty Stadium, Trans Amadi Industrial Layout and Ahmadu Bello University were built using proceeds from production and exports. In contrast, today’s so-called projects are largely funded by non-value-added oil exports. This shift has contributed to international trade and export-oriented economic development taking a backseat. Only a few leaders, such as Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde and Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, have raised concerns about the impending dangers of this approach.

Nigeria’s response to the shifting global trade landscape remains, to be polite, incoherent despite establishing an advisory group or task force. To rectify this, Nigeria should consider appointing an international trade czar, similar to South Africa’s approach, and empower him to negotiate on its behalf. This move would help lay the groundwork for navigating the new world of international trade, given the Washington Consensus’s death and burial after dominating global economic policies for over four decades.

Nigeria’s next step, beyond appointing an international trade czar, should be establishing a board of trade and tariffs with technical expertise. This board would proactively oversee tariffs, customs and operational efficiency, balancing local industry protection with revenue generation and competitive economy development. Collaboration between the board, international trade czar, and Minister of Trade and Industry would facilitate negotiating new trade deals and refining existing ones. Ultimately, Nigeria needs a national consensus to transition from a rent-seeking economy to a more competitive and productive one.

The proposed new board and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should spearhead efforts to ensure the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreements benefit Nigeria. To achieve this, Nigeria’s economy needs a strategic shift towards competitiveness in Africa and globally. In order to foster economic growth and development, redirecting capital from consumption to production should be a priority.

Protectionism is bad! Of course, that has been demonstrated over the past 100 years! Protectionism led to the Great Depression of the 1930s. It also led to the rise of Adolf Hitler. It doesn’t bear good fruits! Its effects include declining living standards and stifled innovation. Trumps tariffs aim to shield American industries, yet their long-term impact on these sectors remains uncertain, more so as retaliatory tariffs from other countries could harm US exports and economic growth.

Furthermore, tariffs may undermine the competitiveness of US industries, especially if other nations don’t impose similar tariffs, leading to higher prices and inflationary pressures that’d dampen consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, open competitive international trade can foster economic growth and development. Regrettably, Nigeria’s current economic landscape suggests it’s not yet poised to fully capitalize on this approach. To overcome these challenges, Nigeria must gird its loin, become proactive and drive its economy towards export-oriented growth. Failure to do so may end up dragging the country into stagnation.

Jawaharlal Nehru’s famous dictum, ‘export or perish’ resonates with renewed urgency today! Now, Nigeria has to bite the bullet! Dear country now faces a critical juncture, necessitating bold action. The implementation of the Oronsaye Report, which former President Goodluck Jonathan failed to undertake, seems to be a step Trump is taking in the USA, and the heavens have not fallen.

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Nigeria’s government structure is bloated, with numerous Ministries, Departments and Agencies – an evident contrast to the United States, which has only 16 departments, and even these are being streamlined by the day. One therefore wonders if Nigeria needs visionary leaders like Obafemi Awolowo, Nnamdi Azikiwe or Ahmadu Bello to return and guide the country once more. These leaders chose production over consumption, leaving lasting legacies like the then University of Ife, now christened Obafemi Awolowo University.

The impact of the Trump Tariff will vary across countries, with Lesotho facing a significant 40% tariff and Nigeria a relatively lower 10%. To mitigate these effects, Nigeria must leverage the African Union to advocate for the bloc’s interests. A step in this direction is Nigeria’s recent gazetting of ECOWAS tariffs. However, the real test lies in how this policy translates to tangible benefits for ordinary citizens, particularly in terms of food affordability and availability.

I have argued elsewhere that, in 1961, Nigerians protested against the abolition of the tax regime because, to them, it might hinder their access to better health and education facilities. Can that happen now? The military’s incursion into Nigeria’s governance system has had long-lasting negative consequences, including the destruction of the police force and tax system to curry favour with the masses and maintain power. The fact that some former military personnel have become ’emergency democrats’ only adds to the irony.

Given the relatively low volume of trade with the United States, the impact on imports may not be significant. In the current circumstances therefore, Nigeria may have no choice but to adapt to the new international framework, and Tinubu should take proactive measures to steer the country towards stability. Frankly, Nigeria has no alternative! For example, since crude oil exports to the US are substantial, the country may have to adjust its budget to accommodate a price of $65 per barrel, especially considering the global decline in oil prices.

It is interesting to note that Nigeria’s current tax mechanism does not befit a modern state. To address this, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) should focus on broadening the tax base rather than increasing the tax burden, a strategy employed by other countries to boost revenue. Burkina Faso’s inclusive approach to taxation, where artisans and small businesses contribute to the tax base, offers a potential model for Nigeria. This approach could be particularly relevant in the current economic climate, where Trump tariffs and global trade shifts require Nigeria to be more proactive in managing its economy. Unfortunately, the country’s tax system is plagued by evasion, with those who are captured often seeking ways to circumvent the system. This is where we are as a country, and it’s sad!

When President Bola Tinubu announced that the era of borrowing to finance the nation’s budget is over, he implicitly underscored the critical role of the FIRS chair, an office vital to the government’s functioning. For the president to have decided on Zacch Adedeji to head such a sensitive office must have taken him a lot of reasonable time to make the choice. Thankfully, the Oyo State-born technocrat has been delivering fantastically on his core mandate. But, more still needs to be done, as his credibility and ability will be judged on the nation’s Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) taking centre stage in achieving the government’s transformational goals.

Considering everything, the Trump tariffs could potentially catalyze a new era with new ideas, a new chapter and a new start for Nigeria. Who knows?

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

• By Magnus Onyibe

In slamming Mexico with a high reciprocal tariff—which has now been suspended for 90 days—the President of the United States of America, Donald J. Trump, did not take into consideration the provisions in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which precludes member countries from being levied tariffs on certain products.

Upon discovering the breach, Mexico pointed it out to the US, and promptly, the concern was addressed with the USMCA exemption recognized and the aberration corrected.

Like the USMCA, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), introduced in 2000 under President Bill Clinton’s administration, grants African countries exemptions from paying tariffs on some items exported to the US.

With the 10% across-the-board tariff that the US has imposed on all her trading partners worldwide—and the reciprocal tariffs (currently paused for three months) that raised tariffs on Nigerian goods to 14%, and up to 50% for a small African country like Lesotho—the US may have breached the AGOA pact with Africa.

So, the question is: has Africa, like Mexico, approached the US to inform her that the AGOA arrangement has been breached, so that an adjustment can be made accordingly, in the same manner that a similar breach of USMCA was addressed when it was brought to the US’s attention?

That task squarely falls within the purview of the African Union (AU); it is a responsibility that rests directly on its shoulders.

If peradventure, Africa has not yet made that move via the AU, the 90-day pause announced by President Trump is a veritable window for the pan-African organization to engage with the relevant authorities in the US to resolve the matter.

That said, at this juncture, it is appropriate that we take a look at Africa’s uninspiring place in the world order and try to figure out how to reposition the continent to become a more active player in the new global trade framework being reshaped by President Trump through his sweeping tariff changes.

Incidentally, the justification for President Trump’s ongoing tariff war includes not only an effort to stem the illicit drug fentanyl from entering the U.S. but also to correct what he considers unfair trade practices by the rest of the world against the United States. So, with its economic and military clout as the world’s global hegemon, and under the leadership of a bold and unorthodox President Trump—who was voted into power based on his reputation as a change agent, although a political outsider—the U.S. is using tariffs to fight for balanced trade with its partners.

But from the narrative about trade between Africa and other continents, as earlier highlighted, it is disheartening and disappointing that Africa has been a perennial and perpetual victim of unfair trade. Sadly, the continent lacks the clout to fight for itself, as the U.S. is currently doing.

Operating in an unstructured—and some may say ungoverned—environment, where six countries (Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, and Sudan), mostly located in the Sahel region, have reverted from democratic governance to military dictatorships, forging a common front to assert herself as a unified continent has remained a mirage since the time of the founding fathers of the Organization of African Unity (OAU)—Kwame Nkrumah of Ghana, Nnamdi Azikiwe of Nigeria, Julius Nyerere of Tanzania, among others—who convened in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in 1963.

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Although the OAU was later renamed the African Union (AU) in Durban, South Africa in 2002—likely inspired by the somewhat successful European Union (EU)—the change was largely nominal. The continental body has never been able to transform Africa into a powerful trading bloc like the EU.

Instead, the continent has remained a mere source of raw materials and not a producer of value-added products that could have engendered prosperity for its people when it becomes the new manufacturing hub for the US.

Perhaps the recently formed African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will make a difference by triggering the desired positive change.

Also, the recent appointment of Massad Boulos, former Group Managing Director of SCOA Nigeria Plc, as Senior Special Adviser to President Trump on Africa affirms growing optimism that Africa will be a focal point for U.S. economic cooperation. Already, Boulos has initiated meetings with the presidents of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, Uganda, and Nigeria to promote peace in conflict zones and foster mutually beneficial economic partnerships.

If Africa is to thrive in the emerging world order, it must seize this moment not as a threat, but as a strategic opportunity to renegotiate its place in global trade—by adding value, fostering local production, and becoming an active partner in global manufacturing and economic integration.

Apart from its vast mineral wealth, Africa holds a global comparative advantage in agriculture. However, subsidies provided by industrialized nations to their farmers significantly neutralize any potential gains for African producers. For instance, eggs that were once produced in excess in the U.S. used to be dumped locally or even thrown into the ocean during gluts, rather than being exported to famine-stricken areas in Africa—especially in the Horn of Africa—where people have died from hunger-related diseases. Ironically, the U.S. is now experiencing an egg shortage. Hopefully, when the egg surplus returns, the U.S. will remember to ship excess produce to Africa, where the need is dire. This is especially critical given that the continent is increasingly unable to feed itself due to unfair global trade practices orchestrated by powerful players in the developed world.

Against the backdrop of Trump’s ongoing reciprocal high-tariff upheavals, one might have thought this would be an opportunity to bring Africa more squarely into the global trade framework—especially now, as a new world order seems to be emerging under Trump.

Take, for example, the case of avocados. High tariffs imposed on Mexico—currently the largest supplier of avocados to the U.S.—has created a supply gap. Africa, also a major grower of avocados, could potentially fill that gap under a tariff-free framework such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), introduced by President Bill Clinton in 2000. AGOA significantly boosted trade between the U.S. and Africa’s 54 nations.

Unfortunately, that might no longer be the case. That is because as earlier noted, AGOA which has been in practice for 25 years seems to have been side-lined under the current administration’s reciprocal tariff regime.

What remains Africa’s biggest handicap in becoming a manufacturing hub for U.S.-bound exports is the lack of infrastructure. This, coupled with financing deficits and debt traps, has made the continent less attractive compared to Asian countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand, which are now thriving manufacturing hubs serving the U.S. market.

The bottom line is this: Africa needs industrialization and trade, not aid. And both President Trump, leader of the world’s most powerful country, and Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest man, can make it happen.

Musk has already explored the unknown in space with his SpaceX program. Now it’s time to explore Africa—for real, and for good.

•Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, sent this piece from Lagos.

• By Tiko Okoye

The Mad Man concept was a rave during the period when Richard Melhouse Nixon was POTUS, and the eclectic Henry Kissinger was his Secretary of State.

At the height of tensions between China & the US, Nixon sent Kissinger to Beijing (then Peking) to make the Chinese ‘see’ reason for reaching an amicable truce on crucial issues.

Kissinger had a bifurcated negotiating tool stuck in his diplomatic briefcase: a carrot in the form of recognizing Beijing’s claim as the ‘authentic China;’ and a stick by seemingly giving believability to the rumour that “mad-man” Nixon was willing and ready to use the nuclear bomb to force a settlement if negotiations failed.

The US had effectively used the vicious tactic to arm-twist the Japanese emperor into signing a unilateral armistice when Japan was still bent on fighting, long after Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Germany had lost in WWII.

Because the tactic worked in Japan, the Nixon administration believed it would also work on China with strikingly similar culture and traditions. The real challenge was convincing Chinese leaders that any political leader was mad enough to contemplate dropping nuclear bombs on another sovereign nation after the ugly PR the Japanese incident had triggered.

But Nixon’s credentials in this regard were rock solid. He was rabidly anti-Communist and referred to Chinese commies as vermins behind closed doors. The world, and especially the Chinese leadership, accepted that Nixon was more than mad enough to concretise the threat.

Fast-forward to Donald John Trump the 47th POTUS. This fellow is 100% TRANSACTIONAL, with his top three interests being Trump, Trump and Trump! He says he wants to make America great again (MAGA), and after losing out in 2020 – and crying that the election was stolen from him – American voters gave him a second chance in 2025.

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Less than 100 days into his presidency, Trump has taken the American economic to the edge of a cataclysmic precipice, with the rest of the world in the eye of a trade hurricane, direct consequences of a unilateral tariff regime he magusterially dubs “reciprocal.”

The ill-conceived tariffs have seen US stock markets lose a whopping $6+ trillion within just two days. Trained economists might say: “But they’re just paper losses that won’t be realized until security holders sell off.” That may be true, but there are millions of American workers who have seen their 401k retirement investments go up in smoke just at the time they wanted to sell down to fund critical needs!

Trump defeated Kamala, among several reasons, on the basis that he will make domestic prices of everyday staples for Americans e.g. eggs, milk and corn flakes, plummet like a meteor. His carefully branded image as a successful multi-billionaire business mogul made US voters swallow the hype hook, line and sinker.

A few of us who shouted ourselves hoarse that the perpetually WIIFM-demanding Trump is one of the greatest con artists in the world, and that Americans were on the cusp of boarding a one-chance vehicle, were derisively dismissed. (WIIFM is the acronym for What’s In It For Me?).

With everything that’s now unraveling, I ought to be saying, “I told you so!” But just like Kamala, I pledge not to tell folks that I told you so

But while Trump may exhibit symptoms of dementia and madness from time to time, his craziness hardly has anything to do with ideology like Nixon. So, why would Trump who inherited a growing economy from Joe Biden – with the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years and counting – move so quickly to tie himself and the US economy in a Gordian knot?

To do justice to this puzzle, I decided to heed the axiomatic saying that to catch a thief, one must think like a thief!

Since the one trait his supporters and haters see eye-to-eye is his ultra-high transactional behaviour, I decided to perceive issues as much as possible through patented DJT transactional lenses, and what I saw literally caused my head to swell.

The tariff gambit is all a grandiose Ponzi scheme gone awry! At the bottom of it all – take it or leave it – is a grand plot to SHORT THE MARKET!

The Trump team knew the chaos the tariffs would cause, and everyone in the loop – including members of his inner circle and GOP  billionaire election financiers – have already adopted a short position, with an horizon of 60-90 days when they would be required to settle their positions.

It doesn’t require rocket science to realize the massive profit one can make from buying shares or bonds or whatever investment instruments when prices are at rock bottom to settle the astronomically high prices of long buyers willing to take possession after a period of time.

But do NOT expect the GOP-controlled Congress, Supreme Court, FBI, Securities & Exchange Commission and Department of Justice to investigate any of this because the fear of Donald Trump has since become the beginning of wisdom in the US.

In Part 2, I’ll ruminate aloud how the President Bola Tinubu administration can opportunistically leverage Trump’s chaotic tariffs to rapidly grow Nigeria’s economy, with the Chinese symbol “crisis” very much in my mind.

• Tiko Okoye – Abuja 08054103468