Tag: U.S Agency

The latest projections of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that Boko Haram insurgency has impacted on the agriculture sector. The report suggests that President-elect Muhammadu Buhari is expected to take agriculture as one of the priorities of his Presidency,  but with modifications to agricultural policies. Excerpts of the report:

UNITED  States (U.S.) 2015/16 wheat exports to Nigeria (which stands) at 2.3 million tons, a 17 per cent decrease, is largely due to existing import levies. The U.S. market share for Nigeria’s wheat imports currently stands at about 55 per cent. Farmers are expected to shift from corn production largely due to unprofitable market prices and lack of storage facilities. Given large carryover corn supplies, (Market Year) MY2015/16 corn imports are estimated at 300,000 tons. MY2014/15 rice ending stocks are at 1.3 million tons due to major importers purchasing higher-than-normal supplies to sell during the presidential election campaign and to stockpile in anticipation of policy changes to existing import quotas and levies by the new government.

Agricultural policies on grain and feed products

Post is closely monitoring current government policies, such as the Agriculture Transformation Agenda (ATA). This agenda is designed to significantly increase production of five key crops – rice, cassava, sorghum, cocoa and cotton – and reduce all major food imports. Sources indicate that ATA’s implementation has not been significantly successful in increasing domestic food production.

On March 28, Gene. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) was elected to be President, effective from May 29. Sources note that agricultural policy is expected to be one of the priorities of his presidency, thus there could be modifications to the ATA and other agricultural policies.

MY2015/16 wheat production is estimated at 60,000 tons, a decline of approximately 17 per cent from the previous year of 70,000 tons. This is largely due to the dislocation of farmers by the Boko Haram insurgence and unfavorable climatic conditions in major wheat growing areas.

Nigeria is a major wheat market for Hard Red Winter. There is also a growing demand for Soft Red Winter for biscuits and cookies; Hard White Wheat for breads and noodles; and Durum Wheat for pasta.

MY2015/16 wheat consumption is estimated at 4.7 million tons, a 17 per cent increase from the current MY2014/15 figure of 4.2 million. Several factors are contributing to Nigeria’s growth in wheat consumption. In the market, Nigeria’s most popular local food is called semolina, a wheat-meal product. For this product, local processors are now using more wheat (preferably imported) than locally sourced staples like cassava flour. This product is widely distributed throughout the country and is becoming very popular in urban areas. Separately, with Boko Haram insurgencies in major growing regions for wheat substitutes, donor organisations are purchasing more wheat and wheat-based products to help feed more than one million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).

Imports

MY2015/16 wheat imports are estimated at 5.0 million tons, a four per cent increase due to rising demand for inexpensive and lower quality supplies from the global market. Sources note that the Boko Haram insurgency in northern Nigeria has generated the dislocation of over one million IDPs, mostly farmers. These individuals are settled in refugee camps, and they depend on food donations, which include wheat-based products mainly from imported wheat.

Constraints to U.S. exports

U.S. trade year exports to Nigeria are estimated at 2.3 million tons for (Target Year) TY2015/16, a 17 per cent decrease largely due to import levies. According to trade sources, the U.S. market share of Nigerian wheat imports currently stands at about 55 per cent. Prior to mid-year 2012, the U.S. held more than 90 per cent of Nigeria’s wheat market. This drastic change in market share is attributed to the country’s wheat import reduction measures.

As noted in previous reports, a 15 per cent levy on imported wheat grains from all origins pushed the effective duty from five to 20 per cent. This generated market price increases for wheat and wheat-based products, but there are major challenges, particularly the devaluation of the naira, that make it difficult for wheat millers to pass on rising prices to consumers. To remain competitive, importers and millers have sought to reduce costs. Some importers have been purchasing inexpensive and lower quality wheat supplies from Ukraine, Russia and Argentina; and flour millers are blending lower quality wheat with the high quality and more expensive U.S. wheat. The currency devaluation has reduced consumer purchasing power and increased demand for cheaper wheat-based products.

MY2015/16 corn production is estimated at 7.0 million tons, a seven per cent decrease from the previous year, based on sizeable carryover supplies and declines in market prices. The Federal Government proposed to purchase carryover supplies from farmers, but lowered global oil prices reduced government revenue. As a result, limited government purchases of corn supplies have been made to date. Moreover, Boko Haram’s insurgency across Nigeria’s main corn producing areas cut off transportation routes for food supplies within Nigeria and across borders to neighboring African countries.

Farmers are expected to shift away from corn cultivation in MY2015/16 as lack of storage facilities, limited funds and lowering prices continue to cut into their earnings. The current average corn price for MY2014/15 is $230 per ton, which is $130 lower than the average MY2012/13 price of $360 per ton.

MY2015/16 corn consumption is expected to drop more than seven per cent to 7.3 million tons from 7.8 million in MY2014/15. In the previous year, feed utilisation increased due to the steady growth in the poultry and aquaculture sectors; however, with currency devaluation and weakened consumer purchasing power, poultry farmers and food processors (the major users) are reducing their corn usage levels.

Given large carryover supplies, MY2015/16 corn imports are estimated at 300,000 tons, a 50 per cent decrease from the current MY2014/15 figure.

Nigeria’s MY2014/15 corn imports are revised to 300,000 tons. Major commercial poultry operations reported large purchases for immediate use. Traders were concerned about the availability of domestic food supplies after the presidential election. So, additional purchases were made pre-election to help rebuild privately-held stocks.

There is high demand for corn among food processors in both Nigeria and other West African countries. Farmers are concerned with low domestic prices, so corn suppliers are expected to seek external markets in neighboring West African countries for better pricing, thereby increasing MY2015/16 exports to 250,000 tons.

Post’s 2015/16 sorghum production estimate is 6.2 million tons, a minimal decrease of two per cent from the 2014/15 figure of 6.3 million tons. The sorghum harvest area has been reduced due to increasing Boko Haram insurgency in the sorghum-producing areas.

The 2015/16 consumption estimate is 6.1 million tons, a decrease of nearly eight per cent from the current 2014/15 estimate, due to declining demand for sorghum-based consumer goods and recent import of low-cost cereal derivatives by food processors as substitutes for sorghum-based ingredients.

Sorghum is a major food and industrial crop for producing malt drinks, breakfast cereal, weaning formula, cookies and other products. With sorghum as the primary food crop in the northern region of Nigeria, research had been intensified on sorghum uses and their outcomes, resulting in new and expanded uses/usage. Sorghum use in poultry feed in the country had been limited; however, a recent research found a formula for safety and nutritious sorghum use to substitute corn in poultry feed formulation.

Sorghum is also used for meal preparations and food fortifications. As mentioned in last year’s annual report, fortified sorghum foods are mostly used for the Home -Grown School Feeding (HGSF) programme and World Food Program (WFP) food aid programmes in neighboring countries like Chad, Niger, and Mali.

In 2008, Nigeria lifted its import ban and instituted an import tariff of five percent. Insignificant trade is reported as domestic production is used to meet the national demand. Sources note that the growing practice by many local Nigerian food processors of importing cereal derivatives, such as malt extracts and glucose syrup, is replacing sorghum products and causing sorghum farmers to shift to other crops.

In 2011, the Federal Government removed its export ban on sorghum. Sources note that there have been larger-than-normal MY2014/15 purchases made by Chad, Niger, and other neighboring countries.

Post estimates that Nigeria’s 2015/16 milled rice production will decline to nearly 2.3 million tons due to unfavourable domestic prices in relation to current global prices. For example, the price of domestic rough rice is over $370 per ton compared to the global price of about $300 per ton. High production and processing costs, coupled with limited finance options for small-scale farmers further restrict local rice production.

Through the ATA policy, the Federal Government has set 2017 as the new target year for self-sufficiency in rice production.

MY2015/16 consumption is estimated at 6.0 million tons. MY2014/15 rice consumption is revised at 6.5 million tons compared to six million tons the preceding market year, largely due to rice donations during national elections.

The general elections in March and April increased rice demand and import figures. Politicians employed rice gifts to build goodwill from voters in the country’s general elections. Rice importers and distributors also hoarded supplies in anticipation of limited food supplies following a potential post-election crisis.

As mentioned earlier in this report, Boko Haram’s insurgency resulted in the displacement of over one million people in northern Nigeria. Similar to wheat and corn, these IDPs depend on rice donations by the government and donor organisations. The MY2014/15 consumption estimate is higher than normal to reflect this unusual high demand.

MY2015/16 imports are estimated at 3.0 million tons. Reportedly, investors in local rice production and distribution are skeptical that current rice import policies and implementations would continue with Nigeria’s new government.

MY2014/15 rice imports are revised to 4.5 million tons, up by 1.0 million metric tons. Investors in local rice production enjoy a 40 per cent reduction of the 70 per cent duty on imported rice. Rice traders without any commitment in domestic rice production however pay the full 70 per cent duty. Therefore, investors in local rice production can offset their losses from domestic operation costs and investments by taking advantage of the import quotas and import duty differential policies.

Constraints for U.S. exports

U.S. rice is highly priced and not competitive in the market. Thailand, India, Brazil, and China are the major suppliers to this market.

On May 26, 2014, the Federal Government of Nigeria approved a new rice policy to promote local investments in rice production/milling. This policy introduced an import duty differential on rice (brown or polished) favouring imports of local rice investors against rice traders with no local rice investment. Investors that have milling capacity with verified Domestic Rice Production Plans (DRPP) enjoy an import duty of 10 per cent and a levy of 20 per cent. Rice traders (with no commitment in local rice production) will pay an import duty of 10 per cent and a levy of 60 per cent. This new rice policy also states that importation of brown or polished rice should be limited to the National Supply Gap (NSG) for import-grade rice which a ministerial committee determined to be 1.5 million tons. Rice import quotas at the preferential duty of 10 per cent and levy 60 per cent for 80 per cent or more of the NSG will be issued to existing and new rice millers/producers.

MY2015/16 beginning stocks will be boosted by large amounts of MY2014/15 rice imports. Post estimates that the country’s MY2014/15 ending stocks will reach 1.3 million tons. Major rice importers purchased larger-than-normal supplies for several reasons: to sell during the presidential election campaign; to reserve supplies in anticipation of a national food price crisis after election; and to ensure adequate stocks in fear of a policy change on import quotas and levies by the new government.

The Director of the United State’s disease control agency, Centre for Disease Control (CDC), Tom Frieden, toured Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, the three countries worst affected by the Ebola outbreak. Here are some of his takeaways:

The impact of Ebola on shortage of food, other supplies as borders close and supplies can’t get in

 This is a big problem.  So, we have, for example, the African union willing to send doctors, nurses, health administrators and during the time I was there, they were stuck in another country because their flight had been canceled and couldn’t get in.  I was going to leave on one day, I ended up leaving a day earlier, rushing to the airport because the flight I was going to be on was canceled.  When I tried to get from Sierra Leone to Guinea, my flight was canceled.  I had to hop on a U.N. charter plane to get from one country to the next.  Getting supplies in, getting people to respond in, that’s a big challenge. I paradoxically, the more the world isolates and stops contact with these countries, the harder it will be for them to control the outbreaks.  The more cases there will be.  The less safe countries elsewhere will be.  Like it or not, we’re connected.  It’s in all of our interests to help these countries stop their outbreaks.  The U.S. government is leaning forward to do that.  The U.S. agency for international development has made nearly $20 million available since the start of the outbreak or reported start of the outbreak in March.  That includes everything from personal protective equipment to contracts for helping with safe health care and safe burials to stop the outbreak.  At CDC, we have more than 70 people on the ground today in the four countries dealing with Ebola.  We’re also sending teams to Senegal and the Ivory Coast to respond as well.  They’re doing everything from tracking the outbreak, to helping improve infection control to ensuring that people leaving the country are screened to see if they have fever.

What needs to be done?

 There’s been a lot of global collaboration.  The European Union is sending laboratories.  We met a Chinese delegation sending a laboratory.  The South Africans have opened a laboratory.  The Canadians have a laboratory have a lab up and running.  MSF has been doing a phenomenal job.  The challenge is that the number of cases is so large that the outbreak, the epidemic is so overwhelming what it requires is an overwhelming response.  Rapidly, effectively deploying resources to tamp it down where it’s spreading wildly.

 Better count of how many people have this virus

 Well, we know there are many undiagnosed cases.  We know many patients are having disease in places where they may not see a doctor, or they may not have a specimen drawn for Ebola.  And one thing that our staff has been doing it improving the tracking and reporting of cases so we can get a better handle on what’s happening.  I can’t say exactly how long the window is.  I can say for every single day we don’t increase our response further, it will get more difficult to control.  The peak will be higher.  It will last longer.  And we’re really addressing every government, every part of society within these three countries, individuals, religious leaders, political leaders, business leaders, among — throughout Africa, those who can help.  And for every government and every organisation to think about what you can do.

Too little, too late

 I think the challenge is pace. The Doctors Without Borders — Doctors

Without Borders director in one of the countries said to me everything we do is too little too late. He was referring MSF specifically. This is not for lack of trying. The virus is moving faster than anyone anticipated. That’s why we need to move fast.

Getting worse over the next few weeks

 I am not going to predict number. I will just say that we should everything we can to keep that number as low as possible. I do think there’s a risk to people travelling to countries when they get ill or becoming ill in other countries. The incubation period is 8 to 10 days average, and can be as long as 21 days. So, it is certainly possible we will see cases elsewhere. That’s why we are alerting clinicians throughout the U.S. to think of Ebola and people who have been travelling to countries that have been affected and to rapidly test for it.  We have helped laboratories around the U.S. become able to test for Ebola safely and accurately. That’s in place now so that testing can be done quickly. We don’t think Ebola would spread widely within the U.S. Routine health care infection control would probably prevent most transmission. We had five cases of other bleeding viruses in the U.S. over the past decade.  Four of a virus called Lassa, one of Marburg, very much like Ebola. Even though they were not identified in the hospital before they were diagnosed, even though people did not take special precautions there was not a single secondary spread from that. That doesn’t mean there couldn’t be a family member or health care worker who didn’t think Ebola, but we don’t think we will see a widespread transmission in the U.S. as it is being spread now.

Help from other places

 We certainly hope to get support with in-kind contributions from companies that can be making things to be used now, if those can be brought over and they are appropriate.  In terms of new medicines, new vaccines, we can certainly hope that they will be available, but we can’t count on it. In terms of the medicines, the supply of the first experimental medicine, ZMapp has been completely exhausted, and my understanding is making more of it is very difficult. First off, we don’t know whether or not it works. Second, if it does, we don’t have it.  We can’t rely on it. Vaccines have begun clinical trials. I think that’s very exciting. We hope they’ll work out and ensure they’re safe. We don’t have large quantities of them. If they are safe, we’ll have to figure out if they’re effective and figure out how to use them to help address the spread of Ebola. So we’re a long way from having these. But any new tool we have would be most welcomed. We shouldn’t forget, though, that things that we have today: standard medical care of hydration, monitoring of patients, of helping patients remain in good fluid balance that saves lives. That needs to happen as quickly as possible for as many patients as possible, not just for their sake, but because the more care they can receive in centers, the quicker they’ll go there, the less spread there will be in communities, the more likely they are to survive.

Human trials for  a vaccine

 We can hope that a vaccine works out and that medicines are proven safe, effective and available, but we can’t count on it. What we can count on is that the quicker we apply the proven means of finding patients, making sure that they stop spreading disease, providing care to them, finding their contacts, making health care safe and burial if necessary safe, the sooner we do that, the sooner cases will begin coming down.

Holding a child and later acquiring Ebola

 Nothing that we’ve seen so far suggests that Ebola is spreading differently in this outbreak. But it is in a very different circumstance. In this case, the young woman was holding her niece. The niece had nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. She had a lot of body fluids, the sicker someone is, the more of the virus they have. When someone is not sick, they can’t spread it.  The sicker they get, the higher the viral load and the more infectious they are. If you have a little bit on your hands, then you wipe your eye or touch your mouth, you can get infected.  That’s presumably what happened in this case. The health education messaging for the countries that are affected is really pretty simple — don’t touch people who are sick or their body fluids and don’t touch people who have died or their body fluids.  Those two key messages need to be gotten out throughout the communities. It’s not easy to do. I spoke with the minister of health in one of the countries who had just gone to a remote rural area. They don’t have radio, they don’t have television or telephone coverage. There are a lot of misconceptions in the rural area that need to be addressed.

Has the world has sort of underestimated this outbreak?

 I’m focused on the future. I think what we need is a no-regrets policy. We need to do whatever we can now so we don’t look back a few months from now and say, gosh, we wish we had done more then. That’s what we have to focus on.

What do we know about whether or not this virus has mutated in a way that makes it easier, more transmissible?

  This is one of the things we’re looking into. In general, the Ebola virus has not changed a lot over the 40 plus years that we’ve known it. So that’s somewhat reassuring.  And that it’s not one of those viruses that changes frequently. But that doesn’t guarantee it won’t in the future. So one of the things our laboratory specialists will be doing with the advanced molecular detection initiative is to sequence viruses overtime from individual patients and over time in the outbreak to see if there are changes. That will take some time to do and we’ll have to track it to see if there are changes. But right now we don’t see any evidence that there is a change that would make it more transmissible.

Challenges of doctor/population ratio

 To turn this around is going to require lots of effort. It will require highly specialised people to work in the areas of Ebola treatment. The need is not just for doctors, but doctors, nurses, health administrators, emergency managers, people who can stay for long periods of time, three months or more who are used to working in very difficult environments.  But the bulk of the response will be from the people in these countries themselves. They’re willing, they need the resources to get the materials they need, they need the training to do what they need to do.  The exact numbers are hard to pin down, but fundamentally working with groups like Doctors Without Borders, MSF and the World Health Organization, we can help. It makes a huge difference to have international assistance to help train people from within each of the countries to do what they need to do to stop Ebola there.

High rates of Ebola infection in health care workers

For the Ebola treatment units, scrupulous infection control makes them quite safe. When I was inside the Ebola treatment unit run by MSF, I felt completely safe. You’re basically swaddled in protective gear. If you’re not risking a needle stick, the risk is essentially nil. The challenge is things like removing those — that equipment if it’s soiled and doing that very, very carefully. Doctors Without Borders and MSF is extraordinarily careful in doing that.  As I came out of the treatment unit, the person who was a local person, trained by MSF, was basically screaming at me, you know, hold your hand this way, do this, move this way and spraying me down with bleach at every step of the way to make sure I was safe. The biggest risk to health care workers has not been in the Ebola treatment units. It’s been in the general health care system because Ebola in these countries doesn’t look very different from a disease like malaria or typhoid or gastroenteritis. When it starts, it has very similar symptoms. So what we have emphasised is what’s called triage. Put anyone who might have Ebola in this group and people who don’t in this group. Use universal precautions for both. For those who might have Ebola, assume that they do until proven otherwise.