As an historian, I can’t fault the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in its effort to support Ukraine in its determination to defend itself against Russia, the bully neighbour who, in the last 14 years, has been gradually invading the country; first of all, by seizing Crimea on the basis that most of the people living there are Russian speaking. After getting away with this, Russia invaded the Eastern part of Ukraine some 14 years later, on the basis of protecting “Russia abroad “and stopping NATO expansion towards Russian western borders.
If Russia is allowed to get away with this, it will be dangerous for the world where there are “language diasporas,” such as French speakers inhabiting some parts of Belgium, Switzerland in Europe, German speakers inhabiting some parts of Italy, France, Denmark, the Netherlands and Austria.
These facts of history do not have to constitute “linguistic determinism,” or territorial irredentism, the kind that Adolf Hitler championed leading to disastrous consequences of the Second World War. The world is right when it recalls that Neville Chamberlain kowtowed to Adolf Hitler by thinking a piece of paper signed by the German dictator would guarantee peace in Europe. This, of course, did not guarantee peace and that this kind of “Appeasement “is what the Western world should avoid in its policy towards Putin.
They argue that those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The presence of Russian speakers in Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia should not be a reason for Russia to invade those countries. This is a powerful argument. But in these days of nuclear weapons, can one pursue the same policy that made sense in the pre-nuclear weapons world that Russia must be resisted by all means ?
I don’t always agree with President Donald Trump, but his point is that if Putin is pushed to the wall and he feels that Russia would have to go down fighting, he may be tempted to use nuclear weapons and NATO would have to retaliate in an unwinnable war.
Recently, Herr Friedrich Merz, the new German Chancellor leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), issued a statement that the previous restriction placed on the use of weapons supplied to Ukraine by Germany for defence within Ukraine no longer applies, and that Ukraine is free to use the weapons within Russia. Putin quickly reminded the Germans that old and young Russians remember their country being levelled by German panzer tanks during the Second World War. The Germans are apparently following what the British told the Ukrainians about eight months ago, that they were free to use British drones and tanks within Russia. But the Russians are particularly historically sensitive about their losses at the hands of the Germans in the Second World War.
President Biden restricted the use of American weapons to within Ukraine. Apparently, the Europeans are changing tactics because of Russia’s irresponsible military attacks on Ukraine in recent times following missile and drones attack on the country, even during President Trump’s so-called mediation.
The Russian leader has warned that any NATO weapons attack on Russia would be welcomed with retaliation in kind. If this were to happen, the NATO doctrine is “attack on one would be regarded as attack on all.” In a case like this, a world war would break out and each of the nuclear armed camps would be eager to deliver the first blow, even though this would not matter because both the USA and Russia have Second Strike Capability. This is a terrible situation to contemplate; it is a terrible scenario to imagine.
Even those of us in the undeveloped countries in Africa would perish as a result of nuclear fallouts. This is what informed President J.F. Kennedy’s warning to the world in 1961 that “in the event of nuclear war, the living would envy the dead.”
I remember, years ago, discussing this possibility of Armageddon in my International Relations class, and a young lady followed me to my office crying. I was worried and asked her what was wrong, and she unabashedly told me I upset her. I asked her to sit down and drink a glass of cold water, and asked her what I said that upset her so much. I was amused when she said it was OK for an old man like myself to talk about the end of the world so casually. She said what would happen to them, young and unmarried ones, who hope to marry and have their own families. Then I told her the scenario I painted need not happen if intelligent people are at the command of global politics.
Recently, President Trump sacked the 100-manned USA Council of National Security on the basis of redundancy and economic considerations, and was satisfied with running US foreign policy alone. This scared me because, to be sincere, the man’s “one-man foreign policy” is dangerously heading towards the rocks!
I can agree with Trump sometimes that the Russian strong man Vladimir Putin is determined to create a Russia that is neither inferior to the USA nor China in a triumvirate of global powers, and is ready to bring the global edifice down on all our heads if he cannot achieve this! And that we need to be careful how we treat him, with understanding and some kind of dignity.
What is to be done.? I suggest that NATO, including the USA, should arm Ukraine, especially with air defensive weapons, including drones, missiles and aircraft and anti-aircraft weapons, to make the constant air attack by Russia of no account. NATO should ensure artillery and tanks superiority for Ukraine and encourage NATO nationals who want to fight the Russians to go to Ukraine as people volunteered to fight the Francisco Franco dictatorship in Spain in the 1930s, so as to wear the Russians down.
The sanctions against Russia should be so tightened as to include sanctions against those trading with Putin like China, India and Brazil. Russia has reduced itself to a third world country exporting raw materials alone, particularly gas, wheat, and oil; and these are available in many countries. If Russia cannot export these, it will run out of money to pay its soldiers and mercenaries, including North Koreans.
A policy of isolation will drive home the policy of global ostracism to the average Russian so that they would be restive in their opposition to their own government and the entrenched oligarchy supporting the policy of language determinism, irredentism and armed-fist imperialism in Europe.
