The Nation Newspaper

Tag: Uncertainty

  • Nigeria’s cloud of uncertainty & insecurity- 2

    I started this column last week with the words: “We Nigerians live in a cloud of uncertainty… It is impossible to imagine any other country comparable to ours in this. Uncertainty and insecurity pervade every facet of our lives as a country”.

    In that first article on the subject, it was not possible for me to touch more than a few areas of Nigeria’s life of uncertainty and insecurity. I intend now to touch some more areas.

    A few weeks ago, our Federal Government celebrated before us – the nearly 170 million of us ordinary Nigerians – the great news that some international monitoring agency had declared the economy of our Nigeria as the largest economy in Africa. We were supposed to rejoice at such wonderful news. But, in reality, was there anything to celebrate? Did the announcement put any improvement into the economic life of any of us?  Absolutely not.

    In fact, a very huge negative was soon to follow as far as international announcements are concerned. According to an October 9 report in the Vanguard, the World Bank has published the horrible, but not surprising, information that Nigeria is one of the foremost contributors to poverty in the word! It added that Nigeria is not only “currently contributing heavily to global poverty”, but also that “Nigeria will be one of the ten countries that, in the year 2030, will remain as the main contributors to global poverty”.

    What does that mean? It means that, while most countries of the world would have, by 2030, moved ahead in economic development, and would have greatly improved the quality of life of their citizens, the citizens of Nigeria (if Nigeria still exists by then) will still be sunk in deep poverty. Nigerians will still be among the poorest folks on earth. Nigerians will still be among the world’s most backward humans, the ones  who have the least access to such dynamic values as regular electricity supply, pipe-borne water, good roads and transportation services, modern and efficient agriculture and food production, quality education, good health-delivery services, good inflow of foreign investments, efficient foreign trade, business opportunities, fair employment opportunities and family incomes, dependable security services, access to economic opportunities in general, good quality governance, etc. In short, poverty, even “absolute poverty”, will continue for a very long time to be the lot of most Nigerians, while almost all other peoples of the world would have marched on to richer, more productive and more comfortable lives. It is a bleak prospect – a depressing prospect. It is the ultimate in uncertainty and insecurity of life.

    Let us look in another direction. As far as the 170 million of us, ordinary Nigerians, know, next year, 2015, is the year of our general elections – the year during which we will elect our President, Senate, House of Representatives, State Governors, and State Houses of Assembly. That sounds simple, clear and certain enough – doesn’t it? It does on the surface.  But our country happens to be Nigeria – and what you see on the surface in Nigeria has little to do with certainty or reality. In fact, one day this past week, a columnist in a national newspaper felt compelled to ask the question, “Are they preparing for elections or for a civil war?”

    We ordinary citizens have no way of knowing for sure; as citizens of Nigeria, we are entirely in the hands of factors and forces beyond our knowledge or understanding. If our rulers and leaders were preparing for elections, why are they doing the things they are doing now? From the little bits of information seeping through to the public domain from time to time, there is no doubt that different groups of Nigerian politicians are secretly shopping for arms and ammunitions abroad and smuggling them into Nigeria. Various official reports paint a frightening picture of weapons smuggling into Nigeria as the 2015 elections approach.

    The smuggling rose sharply in 2013 when, according to official reports, the amount of weapons seized by the authorities was seven times as much as the amount seized in 2012. Since 2013, the volume has continued to rise steadily. The Nigerian Customs Service (NCS) and the State Security Service (SSS) are under escalating pressure trying to detect and seize caches of weapons being smuggled. Large containers of weapons, usually concealed with legitimate merchandise, have been detected and seized at the Apapa ports, Port Harcourt Port, various airports, and various border posts – such as the border of Benin Republic with Oyo State, and, particularly, the border of Niger Republic with Sokoto State. In recent days, this atmosphere has been further heated up by the revelation of secret arms purchases by Nigerians in South Africa. The Federal Government’s claim that the purchases are official hardly lowers the heat.

    Moreover, the language of Nigerian politics sounds more and more these days like the language of hostile nations heading towards collision and war, rather than the language of a country’s political parties angling for electoral advantage. We hear such language of war or threat of war from most parts of Nigeria these days – usually mostly from the North-west, and least of all from the South-west. But, no other Nigerian politician (or pseudo-warrior) has uttered a more infamous threat of war than the one which emanated from the Arewa North in the past week, and which is now circulating around the world. Though I quoted chunks from that threat last week, I must quote some more or repeat some today. Nigerians need to hear more of it.

    Demanding that the presidency of Nigeria must be given to the Hausa-Fulani in 2015 and to no other Nigerian of any other nationality (because “Allah has given it to the Hausa-Fulani” alone), he threatened:

    “No Goodluck or anyone else will stop us from taking back our power next year. We will kill, maim, destroy and turn this country into Africa’s biggest war zone and refugee camp if they try it…Many say we are behind Boko Haram. My answer is what do you expect? …We …will fight back in order to keep it (the presidency). They have brought in the infidels from America and the pigs from Israel to help them but they will fail. The war has just begun, the Mujahadeen are more than ready and by Allah we shall win”.

    Well, those of us ordinary Nigerians who have been expecting that we shall have general elections next year must now begin to ask serious questions of ourselves. As things look, it seems we will need to struggle to prevent many armies from springing into action in Nigeria in 2015 – two armies from the Muslim North (a re-energized Boko Haram striking all over Nigeria; and a Mujahadeen army comprising well-armed infiltrators into the ranks of the Northern cattle herders already well deployed all over the South and Middle Belt); a South-south army; and South-east and South-west armies springing hurriedly into existence. Will there still be a Nigeria after all these would have gone into action?

  • Nigeria: Living in a cloud of uncertainty

    We Nigerians live in a cloud of uncertainty – a heavily dark cloud of uncertainty. It is impossible to imagine any other country comparable to ours in this. Uncertainty and insecurity pervade every facet of our lives as a country.

    Even when we engage in the simple act of voting to elect our rulers, none of us can be sure anymore what we are doing. We are not sure whether the ballot paper in our hand is real; we are not sure whether the thumb-print we append to the ballot paper will vanish or physically move to another location. And even after we have rejoiced that the candidate of the party of our choice has been announced as “elected”, we are not sure whether he will not change his party affiliation before the next morning.

    It is the same uncertainty and insecurity in all the more serious things of life. If a Nigerian is being menaced by criminals these days, he cannot be sure whether it is safe to call the police for help. Not even such special public officials as judges of courts can be sure of protection by the police in their courts. Every well-to-do Nigerian and members of his family live in the constant fear that kidnappers can suddenly rob them of their freedom and joy. No ordinary Nigerian walking in the streets can be sure these days that he will ever arrive at his destination or ever make it back home.

    We used to be sure what government meant. We used to be sure that government, be it federal, state or local government, was the government of all citizens. Those days are gone. Whether the government will offer protection to the people of any Nigerian town these days depends on the people’s ethnicity or the colour of the political party cards carried by most of them. Progressively since independence, it has become perfectly “normal” for the leader of any Nigerian government (whether federal, state or local), while appointing public officials into his government, to shut out the citizens of large areas of his domain and to  fill all government offices with his own kinsmen only. No Nigerian now seriously expects that the men and women who occupy public offices are there to serve him as a member of the public – even if they belong to his own ethnicity or political party. Public officials go to their offices only to take care of their personal shares of the “national cake”.

    As Africa’s largest and naturally richest country, and as Africa’s greatest benefactor of African countries in the throes of liberation wars during the 1960s, we Nigerians used to be fairly confident everywhere in Africa. As owners of Africa’s strongest military, we Nigerians used to be fairly proud of our military’s contributions in peace-keeping operations on the African continent and in other parts of the world. Other African countries used to have a modicum of respect and love for us Nigerians, and used to welcome us happily into their towns. Those days are gone. If you are a Nigerian desiring to flee the unemployment, poverty, corruption and violence of Nigeria, and thinking of relocating to another country in Africa, you need to think more deeply and watch your steps most seriously. In most African countries, the people don’t want us Nigerians anymore. Familiarize yourself with the accounts of what is happening to Nigerians in other African countries these days – how Nigerians are being randomly accused of drug trafficking by their neighbours and violently set upon in more and more countries, how Nigerians are being attacked, wounded or killed by mobs, how Nigerians are having their properties destroyed or confiscated, and how Nigerians can no longer depend on some governments for fair treatment or protection – and how some leaders of governments commonly ridicule Nigeria and Nigerians. In more and more countries in Africa, being a Nigerian has become a hazard; settling down or doing business no longer has much certainty beneath it for a Nigerian. The ever worsening stench of Nigeria’s image makes sure of these developments.

    Until over a decade ago, the Nigerian army used to be widely regarded as the star of the international peace-keeping operations in countries like Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, etc. Today, the overwhelming image of the Nigerian military is that it is so corrupt as to be incapable of standing to fight such a rag-tag army of fanatics like Boko Haram. We Nigerians know that the truth in the situation is that the fundamental disunities of Nigeria have caught up with the Nigerian military and destroyed its professionalism and morale. The Nigerian military know that they are fighting not only against Boko Haram, but also against a whole lot of influential Nigerians. We no longer have a country that can sustain an effective army. In fact, ours is no longer a country that can sustain a viable modern country in any serious sense. Just now, all we are doing with Nigeria’s existence is playing children’s games; but children’s games, sui generis, never last long.

    This past week, Nigeria’s battered image, and the world’s declining hope about Nigeria, took yet an incredibly heavy hit as people read on the world-wide web a statement credited to an important Nigerian. Whatever frail rudiment of certainty has been left of Nigeria in the minds of the world is crumbling right now as more and more people in the world are reading that unfortunate statement. I hesitate to identify the maker of the statement – beyond saying that he is a very eminent Northern Nigerian. But here are some quotes from his statement:

    ‘’When I say that the Presidency must come to the north next year, I am referring to the Hausa-Fulani core north and not any northern Christian or Muslim minority tribe. They can grumble, moan and groan as much as they want…They owe us everything… because we gave them Islam through the great Jihad. We also captured Ilorin, killed their local King and installed our Fulani Emir. We took that ancient town away from the barbarian Yoruba and their filthy pagan gods. It was either the Koran or the sword. Allah, through the British, gave us Nigeria to rule and to do with as we please. Since 1960 we have been doing that and we intend to continue. The Igbo tried to stop us in 1966, and between 1967 and 1969 they paid a terrible price. They…have been broken. We will kill, maim, destroy and turn this country into Africa’s biggest war zone and refugee camp if they try it. Many say we are behind Boko Haram. My answer is what do you expect? The war has just begun, the Mujahadeen are more than ready… If they don’t want an ISIS in Nigeria, then they must give us back the Presidency and our political power”.

    After this kind of tirade, need anything more be said about the uncertainty that engulfs Nigeria? Where is anything like hope here?

  • Uncertainty as Edo Assembly crisis enters sixth week

    Uncertainty as Edo Assembly crisis enters sixth week

    The  crisis rocking the Edo State House of Assembly enters its sixth week today, amid anxiety among residents.

    Last week, two lawmakers- Emmanuel Okoduwa and Kingsley Ehigiamusoe- were suspended for aiding the four suspended lawmakers to break into the Assembly complex.

    Residents are apprehensive of another police blockade of major streets leading to the Oba Ovoramwen Square when the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) lawmakers, led by the impeached Deputy Speaker, Festus Ebea, resume sitting.

    The PDP lawmakers held their plenary in the unkempt  chamber at the Assembly complex after they broke the armoured door and iron protector.

    Six persons, including two former Assembly workers, Omoregbe Osagie and Okoh Godwin,  who were sacked for certificate forgery, were present at the PDP lawmakers’ plenary.

    The hopes of the PDP lawmakers were dashed last week, when the Court of Appeal asked them to obey court orders.

    The Federal High Court, presided over by Justice Mohammed Lima, granted an interim order restraining the police from preventing or continuing to prevent the plaintiffs, including Assembly workers, from accessing the premises and their offices, pending the hearing and the determination of the motion on notice.

    Justice Lima restrained the police from preventing the workers engaged by the Assembly from continuing the renovation of the Assembly.

    He, however, denied the prayer of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to restrain PDP lawmakers from holding plenary or carrying out legislative functions, pending the hearing of the motion on notice.

    The judge held that the lawmakers’ prayers were within the jurisdiction of the State High Court”.

    What is perhaps certain is that the PDP lawmakers might continue sitting alone as the Assembly workers have been ordered to resume duty at another location, pending completion of renovation work.

    A proposed solidarity strike by Organised Labour was put off last week after the Assembly workers assured labour leaders that normalcy has returned to the Assembly.

    The Chairman, State Parliamentary Association of Nigeria, Shugaba Aliyu, said the workers only recognised the legitimacy of Igbe as the de facto and de jure Speaker.

    He said: “Our members don’t see any need in embarking on any industrial action on account of threat to our personal safety. If anything, our only prayer today is that the renovation works at the Anthony Enahoro House be expedited so that some of our members who have relocated to the old legislative chamber can return to their desks in the office by the Ring Road.

    The suspended PDP lawmakers have said they were not in contempt of any court order since their appeal was before the Supreme Court.

    Ebea, who spoke at a briefing yesterday, said they have respect for the rule of law and that they have appealed against the ruling of the Court of Appeal.

    He said they could not be in contempt when they have appealed against the ruling.

    “We have filed an appeal at the Supreme Court for stay of execution for interim order. Until a judicial pronouncement is made by the court one cannot be said to be in disobedience to any interim order.”

  • Uncertainty as Edo bans motorcycles, tricycles

    The ban on motorcycles and tricycles in three local government areas of Edo State takes effect today.

    The government banned motorcycles and tricycles from plying major streets in Oredo; Egor, Ikpoba-Okha and Aduwawa in Uhnmwode and Ekosodin in Ovia Northeast.

    Tricycle operators, according to Governor Adams Oshiomhole, would be allowed to operate “in very remote areas” of the affected local governments areas.

    What caused apprehension among residents was the announcement that those using motorcycles for private use will not be allowed to use them in the restricted areas.

    Oshiomhole, in the broadcast, said the decision to ban motorcycle was painful and that it was in the state’s overall security interest.

    The governor urged residents to comply with the directives as “security agencies have been mobilised to enforce the ban”.

    He said any motorcycle intercepted would be destroyed.

    Oshiomhole said he had met with registered okada riders for provision for alternatives but that the benefits would not accrue to those who came to the state because of the ban in other states.

    “We do not want to bring any hardship on anyone but we are determined to enforce it ruthlessly.

    “ I advise all bike riders to comply and keep off the roads. Should any bike rider defy this order, he will be dealt with ruthlessly. The bike will be confiscated and destroyed.

    “In the overriding interest of our collective security, I ask you to appreciate that this is a sacrifice that you have to make. Everyone must make sacrifice and be security conscious.

    “We have lots of security challenges in the country. There will be a time this issue will be resolved and everyone will be happy.

    “Do not doubt our will to enforce this decision. Motorcycles will be destroyed on my orders. Keep out of our roads in the aforementioned areas.

    “I care about your welfare but we are not about to replace motor bike with Keke NAPEP.

    “Please stay out of trouble. It is not my wish to visit hardship on anyone. It is my duty to provide security for the people. Please respect this order,” he said.

    Those willing to sell off their motorcycles are finding it hard as buyers are haggling prices between N20,000 and N35,000.

    Some said they would keep their motorcycles for future use.

  • LCCI: Budget delay fuels uncertainty

    The delay in the release of this year’s budget has created uncertainty in the economy, the Director-General, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Mr Muda Yusuf, has said.

    It will also affect planning in the private sector because there are some private sector institutions that take their cue from the budget.

    Muda said it would have a negative effect on capital budget implementation because “the more time we have to implement the budget, the better for the implementation”.

    “If we have a delay of close to two months, definitely it will affect the implementation.

    “So, delay generally creates the problem of uncertainty, it creates the problem of planning. It affects the pace of implementation of the budget generally. When the political parties were really very effective, we won’t have this kind of friction going for long since the president belongs to the majority party in the National Assembly.

    “The matter should have been resolved long ago, because they would have used the party machinery to resolve the impasse through the party caucus in the Senate and House of Representatives and party leadership. So, there has to be some effectiveness within the political party machinery in resolving such impasse.

    “Even as the President was signing the budget, you see that there was no ceremony about it. It was not even in the public glare as we used to have, so they must have signed it with some understanding, with conditional assent, conditional in the fact that they will come back to review some grey areas in the budget.

    He said the zero allocation to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may create instability in some area of the economy.

    “If you have a situation where a regulatory agency is being denied, of course that is not good for the system and it is not even proper for the National Assembly to be visiting their disapproval of conduct of the chief executive on the institution through this means. If you have problem with an official of an institution, it is not enough reason for you to cripple the entire institution.

    “It is very disproportional in that kind of action and I am sure such things should be reviewed,” he said.

    Muda said if the government is sincere about its Transformation Agenda, it should cut its spending.

    He said a critical look at the budget shows that the government is not prudent in its spending, most especially, the overhead cost.

    “It is easy to talk, but to truly put transformation in action is not easy. If we are to achieve this objective, first, our priority with spending must be right. We need to create the environment where enterprises create wealth.

    “If we continue to spend the way we are spending, it will be difficult for us to achieve the goal. Look at the budget, the structure of the spending does not reflect this vision. There are issues in the budget that cannot be defined properly, especially those under overhead,” Muda said.

    Muda said things would continue to get worse because the focus is on the 2015 election. He said most of the politicians would want to save for election and to secure themselves in case things did not work after the next polls.

     

  • Uncertainty over PIB stalls Shell’s $30b investment

    Uncertainty over PIB stalls Shell’s $30b investment

    • ‘Nigeria loses 100,000bpd’

    The Country Chair of Shell Companies in Nigeria and Managing Director, Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC), Mutiu Sunmonu, has said the delay in the passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) and other uncertainties are holding back the company’s planned investment of about $30 billion in two offshore deepwater projects in Nigeria.

    The Group Executive Director, Exploration and Production, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Abiye Membere, also disclosed that Nigeria currently loses 80,000 barrels of crude oil per day (bpd) to bunkering activities. The volume reflects in production cut of 150,000 bpd.

    Sunmonu and Membere spoke at the special sessions yesterday at the Nigeria Oil and Gas conference in Abuja. Sunmonu said SPDC would rather wait for stable and right conditions before committing funds to the undisclosed projects.

    With the uncertainties in the oil industry, which include loss of revenue through oil theft and pipeline vandalism as well as the inability to embark on new projects and non-passage of the PIB, Sunmonu warned that Nigeria’s oil and gas industry may be slipping into the era when it took Mexico about 50 years to recover from such challenges in its oil industry.

    He said: “I recall the Mexican story, it took them 50 years to recover from that loss in oil production, and my worry is that we are slipping into that; even today if we produce a modest allowance of three million bpd and just assume a modest decline rate of 10 per cent, that leaves us with 2.7mbpd.

    “What this means is that for us to maintain that level of 3mbpd, we must produce additional 300,000bpd. It means that we need at least two deepwater projects every year and then you are talking about additional $30 billion investment every year for us to remain at that level, but that is not going to be easy.

    “If we look at our onshore today, it is nowhere near the capacity we have. Most of what we have today comes from our deep offshore operations, but there is a lot more that we can get out of onshore, but that is the place that has serious financing challenges.

    “Deep water portends a huge opportunity in Shell. We have two big projects we will like to do as soon as we are sure that the environment and the conditions are right. It will cost us about $30 billion, and I am sure it is the same with the other international Oil Companies (IOCs) because each of us has projects in the pipeline, but we are all waiting for the almighty PIB to be able to make these decisions.

    “It is very clear in my mind that the potentials are there, but turning those potentials to reality requires a lot of hard work, creative thinking and genuine value creation.”

    He was of the view that all stakeholders in the industry would make sure that they minimise the leakages in the operations today because crude oil theft continues to be a menace. If our country is losing 100,000bpd to 150,000bpd, that is huge. He said that some of the countries that parade themselves as oil producers today cannot even boast of 80,000bpd and if we are filtering away that much, then it calls for urgent action.

    Membere said the government is putting security measures in place to curtail the menace of oil theft in the country. He said the measures are yielding results, adding that the passage of the PIB will equally grant host communities opportunities to further provide security around oil installations, thus reducing the menace as the sector progresses.