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Tag: unemployment

  • Is Nigeria’s unemployment rate low or high?

    Is Nigeria’s unemployment rate low or high?

    The latest unemployment figures declared by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) have stirred controversy in some quarters with some arguing that the picture being painted by the Bureau that things may well be looking up for the economy is a ruse and not the true reflection of what is on ground. Ibrahim Apekhade Yusuf in this report examines the issues

    hen the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced last week that Nigeria’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 from 5.3 per cent in the fourth of 2022, the news was received with mixed feelings.

    The Statistician General of the Federation/CEO of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Mr Adeniran Adeyemi, who disclosed this during the inauguration of the New Nigeria Labour force Survey (NLFS) in Abuja, said that the drop in NLFS from 33.3 percent in the fourth quarter 2020 to its present rate was based on change in methodology adopted and not government performance.

    The new NLFS unveils a set of labour force indicators designed to provide unparalleled insights into the dynamics of the workforce in Nigeria.

    The NLFS was conducted by the NBS in collaboration with the World Bank (WB) and the International Labour Organisation (ILO) in response to the labour market dynamics.

    Justification for NBS matrix

    According to Adeniran, the new method which indicates that not less than 73 percent of Nigerians are engaged in one form of work, recognises all forms of engagements from which individuals earn income.

    He said using the new ILO definition, the survey showed that the unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2022 stood at 5.3 per cent and 4.1 per cent for the first quarter of 2023.

    While noting that the new methodology of assessment was not in any way an avenue to whitewash the image of the government, the NBS boss said that: “This figure aligns perfectly with neighbouring countries around Nigeria. Ghana (3.9 per cent); Niger (0.5 per cent), Chad (1.4 per cent), Cameroon (4.0 per cent), Togo (4.1 per cent), Benin Republic (1.7 per cent) amongst others.

    “In responding to the shifting global landscape and the ever changing data ecosystem, it is imperative for us to continuously adapt the way in which we collect and analyse data. “This is to ensure that we are producing data that reflects reality and the experiences of Nigerians. “These changes also include a revision to the design and methodology applied in the conduct of the actual survey.

    “Which is the survey that produces commonly known headline Unemployment and Underemployment rates as well as other labour market indicators that guide policymakers, researchers, and other users,” he said.

    He was however quick  to admit that the results indicate a scarcity of wage-employment, as the share of those employed in wage-employment during the reference quarters was 13.4 per cent in Q4 2022 and 11.8 per cent in Q1 2023.

    Adeniran said that the working age population which was defined previously as persons aged 15-64,  is now defined as persons aged 15 and above.

    He said this was a very important change particularly in the Nigerian context as it recognises the labour contributions of persons above the age of 64 which was not done previously.

    The NBS boss said the unemployed appeared to be the most controversial amongst the changes announced under the review.

    “In the real sense, nobody works one hour a week and then sits down and does nothing else when there are opportunities for more hours of work.

    “The statistics show that only 7.1 per cent of those working, work between 1 – 19 hours per week. So, one hour is just a benchmark and nothing more than that,” he said.

    Read Also: Much ado about Nigeria’s 4.1% unemployment rate

    The survey revealed that about three quarters of Nigerians in the working age population, 73.6 percent in Q4 2022 and 76.7 percent in Q1 2023 were engaged in some form of work for pay or profit in the quarters under review.

    According to the NBS, the percentage of people who were engaged in some type of jobs for at least one hour in a week, for pay or profit (employed), rose to 76.7 percent in the first quarter of 2023 from 73.6 percent in the previous quarter.

    “Majority of Nigerians are self-employed while a much smaller proportion holds wage jobs. In Q4 and Q1, 73.1 percent and 75.4percent of employed Nigerians respectively worked in their own business or farming activity for their primary job,” it said.

    It said the percentage of employed Nigerians engaged as employees (being wage-employed) in their primary jobs dropped to 11.8 percent from 13.4 percent.

    The statistical agency, which defined a rise in unemployment as generally meaning the number of people searching for jobs, said the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent from 5.3 percent.

    It said unemployment was highest for young Nigerians compared to other age groups and higher in urban areas compared to rural areas. It was also higher among those with higher educational attainment and highest for those with post-secondary education.

    “Those with higher levels of education are more likely to seek formal, wage-employment jobs, which could require longer periods of search,” the NBS said.

    It may be recalled that the NBS had last year announced plans to adjust the methodology used in calculating unemployment figures in Nigeria.

    Adeniran had given the hint while speaking during a National Sensitisation workshop in Abuja at the twilight of 2022.

    According to him, the new method of data collection for the survey would now produce headlines of national estimates of unemployment and other interesting labour force data, using the new hourly definition of one hour a week.

    “This new concept and approach of conducting the survey will add new questions on persons employed but not at work, long-term unemployment, job satisfaction, discouraged job seekers, and information on decent work.”

    Adediran said the survey, which will be released next year, will have a fresh quarterly listing of selected clusters to avoid attrition.

    “This new approach involves data collection from a carefully selected sample of over 35,000 households, spread over a period of 12 months, instead of the large 33,000 sample surveyed every quarter,” he stated.

    NBS’s change of approach in unemployment data collection is coming months after the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment accused the NBS of creating “confusion” in its data on the rate of unemployment in the country.

    The Federal Ministry of Labour via @LabourMinNG in 2021 tweeted soon after the last unemployment figures were released: “There has been a little confusion there as to the accuracy of data generated by the NBS. So, we want to align everything tomorrow.

    “The World Bank says the NBS methodology doesn’t conform with the global standard, especially the ILO (International Labour Organisation) format of arriving at such an Employment Index.”

    The NBS, in response, said the World Bank has denied making such a statement, and Nigerians can also verify.

    Meanwhile, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) had in January projected the unemployment rate in Africa’s most populous nation to hit 37 percent this year.

    This indicates that the expected unemployment rate is nearly four percentage points higher than the 33.3 percent projected by the NBS for 2020.

    NESG In its latest 2023 Macroeconomic Outlook report titled: “Nigeria in Transition: Recipes for Shared Prosperity,” said the projected rate and the poverty headcount would amplify to 45 percent this year.

     “This is due to weak performance in the job-elastic sectors, low labour absorption of sectors that will drive growth, and population growth estimated at 3.2 percent will lead to a decline in real per capita income,” it said.

    The report also revealed that the inflation rate would average 20.5percent while the Gross Domestic growth rate would moderate to 2.98 percent this year.

    The NESG added: “Inflationary pressure is expected to remain elevated, driven by structural, cost, and monetary factors. Food inflation will remain the fundamental driver of inflation due to the enduring impact of flooding, increased production costs due to increased cost of credit, insecurity and displacement.”

    “Existing fuel shortages and the removal of fuel subsidies will continue to increase the core components, especially transportation.”

    The think-tank group noted that Nigeria’s economic growth would be subdued in 2023 due to strains on investment and low productivity in critical sectors.

    “The services sector will drive economic growth, but this growth will not be strong enough to generate significant jobs.

    “As a result, unemployment will remain unabated. Economic growth will be supported by election-related spending and improvement in the oil sector,” it concluded.

    Vote of confidence

    The World Bank’s Country Director, Shubham Chaudhuri pledged the continued support of the bank to ensure a robust, regular national LFS data for the country.

    Chaudhuri said reliable data provided the government with knowledge about the nation’s welfare and ensured the right intervention and programmes needed to address its challenges.

    The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Abubakar Bagudu, said data was key to national planning and development.

    According to Bagudu, President Bola Tinubu believes in reliable data for planning, and will support anything towards production of appropriate data.

    “To create jobs for youths, we need this kind of data, a lot needs to be done to address the high rate of unemployment in the country. The President is desirous of reducing unemployment.

    “Nigeria is one of the countries with absorptive capacity, so what we need is to provide a better environment and more incentives,” he said.

    While commending the NBS and its partners in revising the methodology, Bagudu said, henceforth, the ministry would use the revised data more practically.

    On his part, Prof. Mike Obadan, Non-Executive Director and member MPC, CBN, also reiterated the need for NBS to ensure robust strategy for communicating its survey findings to the public in simple language.

    Divergent views over NBS stats

    The received wisdom out there is that the labour data released is a complete dissonance to reality.

    Analysts say the rise in employment and a decline in unemployment show how Nigeria’s harsh operating environment is forcing the younger population to be creative towards job creation.

    The former statistician-general of the federation, Yemi Kale, also criticised the new methodology the NBS used to evaluate Nigeria’s unemployment rate.

    Kale said he resisted the attempt to adopt the new methodology for 10 years because it doesn’t reflect the reality of the job market in Nigeria.

    He left NBS in August 2021 to join KPMG Nigeria as a Partner and Chief Economist. Simon Harry took over Kale’s position as statistician-general of Nigeria.

    The NBS was criticised by some Nigerians who faulted the bureau’s report which states unemployment dropped from 33.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 4.1 per cent in Q1 2023.

    According to the bureau, the new methodology considers one hour of work as employment status rather than the previous 20 hours of work during Kale’s tenure.

    NBS said its decision to change the work hours aligns with global best practices, as the new methodology was created by the ILO.

    However, Kale, on Monday, told AriseTV that the 20 hours of work used to consider employment status during his period equates to an hour of wages in the United States where the ILO methodology is used, so discarding the 20 hours for one hour to determine employment status would send the wrong information and misleading Nigerian policymakers, as the payment within one hour can’t sustain a worker.

    The KPMG Nigeria chief economist said data such as the unemployment rate report is meant to “give policymakers the tools they need to understand the problems, proffer solutions, and monitor the impact of those problems”.

     “If the policy and data are to match, policymakers need to come out to say that all they are promising Nigerians is one hour of employment, then the methodology works. But if the methodology is focused on one hour and policymakers are trying to look for full-time employment, the data won’t help them,” he added.

    Speaking further about the data, Kale said: “It is only there for textbooks, researchers, and international comparison, and there is nothing wrong with that.

     “The most important use of data is to provide information for policymakers, not for international comparisons. You have to ensure that your policymakers can use your data.

    “This is why I resisted for 10 years because it did not make any sense in terms of providing the information that our policymakers need.

    “So, the 20 hours was set because the committee that was set up, which included the ILO, university professors, UNDP, population commission, and CBN, presented their findings and they decided that one hour did not make sense because the income you will generate on an average from one hour’s work was not going to work.

    “The 20 hours was decided on because it was agreed that if you work for that duration, you might be able to generate enough income that might sort of equate to what working one hour in the US is, then you have a bit more comparison.”

    This is negative for the economy as most of the quality or productivity of jobs in the informal sector are low as they are done for survival purposes or to meet people’s daily needs, thereby not contributing to economic growth.

    “The unemployment situation is indeed very frightening,” stressed Ayeni Macaulay.

    In the view of Dr. Muda Yusuf, chief executive officer of the Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprises, there is a limit to the number of people that the regular paid employment can absolve, especially given the challenges that many of the Small Medium Enterprise (SMEs) are facing.

    “The nature of work, which is changing, means that people are now trying to be more creative, which is not a bad idea. The economy is very big and there is a lot of demand that needs to be met and a lot of value to be created to meet those demands which presents a lot of opportunities,” he said.

    Over the past seven years, Nigeria’s economy has slumped into two recessions owing to the collapse of oil prices, disruptions caused by the pandemic and an inability of the government to reform the economy.

    The contractions have weakened consumers’ purchasing power, throwing millions into poverty. Data from the NBS shows that headline inflation, which serves as a measure of consumer prices, rose to a near 18-year high of 24.03 percent in July 2023.

    Last year, the NBS put the number of Nigerians living in multidimensional poverty at 133 million, compared to 82.9 million considered poor in 2019 by national standards.

    A recent World Bank report noted that the worsening poverty in Africa’s biggest economy was making more people quit school for menial jobs.

    The multilateral lender projected that by 2030, over 40 million young Nigerians under 29 years could abandon furthering their higher education to join the informal sector.

    For Israel Emekumo, a fresh graduate from Niger Delta University, noted that since he left school two years ago, he has been job-hunting for months and was at the mercy of neighbours who he looks up to for survival.

    Data from the NBS shows that the agric sector slowed to 1.88 percent in 2022 from 2.13 percent in 2021, manufacturing declined to 2.45 percent from 3.35 percent, and trade plunged to 5.08 percent from 8.62percent.

    The economic uncertainties are making many jobless Nigerians seek opportunities to travel abroad, fuelling a massive brain drain that is hurting the labour quality of Africa’s most populous economy.

    Exodus of Nigerians who have caught the Japa bug

    Independent data obtained from the British government showed a total of 40,875 Nigerian students as well as health and care professionals were granted visas by the United Kingdom in one year.

    Besides, in the first half of 2023, the number of Nigerians moving to Canada rose to 10,180 from 10,105 in the same period of 2022, according to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

    Israel Odubola, a Lagos-based research economist, said the NBS labour report shows the role of entrepreneurship in driving employment in Nigeria and the need for the government to support micro, and small business owners to ensure that they contribute substantially to employment promotion in the country.

    “The Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) sector is the most important segment in any economy but their job creating capacity has not been fully tapped in Nigeria,” he said. “So I feel creating an environment that supports their growth and development, creating a conducive regulatory space and creating policies that will also drive their job creation capacity will go a long way in promoting employment opportunities in the country.”

    In Nigeria, the sector currently contributes 50 percent of the GDP and has provided over 48 percent of all employment opportunities in the country, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation.

    But small business operators in Nigeria have been grappling with a combination of issues, including poor power supply, rising borrowing costs, soaring inflation, restrictive economic policies, foreign exchange volatility, and tax multiplicity.

    According to the Small and Medium Scale Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria in Nigeria, 80 percent of SMEs fail before their fifth anniversary due to harsh economic environments, lack of access to capital, and poor business practices, which have stunted the growth and transition of micro-businesses.

    Light at the end of tunnel

    Interestingly, the federal government has assured that an economic revival plan aimed at ensuring a new lease of life for Nigerians.

    The plan includes bold economic reform, avoidable borrowing, foreign and domestic investment drive, restoration of national security, food security, job creation and promotion of accountability.

    President Bola Tinubu who reiterated his commitment to economic revitalisation said he will not permit indolence or any act capable of derailing his ‘Renewed Hope Agenda’ by any of his ministers.

    He gave a marching order to the 45-member of the Federal Executive Council (FEC) to perform or be ready to be fired for incompetence.

    The president,  who presided over his administration’s maiden FEC meeting at the Council Chambers of the Presidential Villa, Abuja, advised the ministers to brace up for the challenges of governance.

    Five ministers-Olawale Edun (Finance and Economy), Mohammed Idris (Information and National Orientation), Dr. Ali Pate (Health and Social Welfare), Abubakar Kyari (Agriculture and Food Security), and Doris Anite (Industry, Trade and Investment) and Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity, Ajuri Ngelale shed light on how they will achieve the president’s eight-point agenda.

    Edun said although President Tinubu inherited a bad economy, concerted efforts will be made to change the tide.

    The president, who highlighted the challenges before the ministers, charged them to gird their loins.

    He alluded to the priority areas, which were emphasised in his economic programmes, urging them to embrace activities that will enhance service delivery and prevent failure.

    President Tinubu said the country relied on the minister’s skill, intellect, and networking, adding that they were appointed to make a difference.

    He said: “As I said during the inauguration, I am the bus driver and you are the conductors. We have to make sure this country stays on the right path to succeed on behalf of over 200 million Nigerians. We willingly accepted the appointment and I accepted the mandate of Nigerians.

    “I have delegated some of these powers to you to serve the country. You are a very lucky person to be selected among millions of Nigerians and we will use the opportunity to show that Nigeria has what it takes to dig ourselves out of our problems.

    “We must find a home-grown re-engineering of our finances, manage our resources and let the economy work for the people of this country.

    “But to turn things around, you have been selected to perform your utmost best. The policy agenda will be set out to reform the economy to deliver sustainable and inclusive growth, and strengthen national security for peace and prosperity. Without security there can be no investment. That is true. You have to convince them and the time is now to do that.

    “When you look around the world, every leader is clamouring for what they believe on what should be their policy on food security. We have declared a state of emergency. What is your goal?

    “Every one of you is a member of this team, every one of you, no partitioning. We can do whatever we want from the assignment of responsibility, but it all depends on you, if you stay focused, we will all arrive at a better destination and the country will be better off for it.”

    He added: “We must unlock the energy and natural resources of this country. We must start producing for ourselves, and dig ourselves out of the hole. We must focus on education, healthcare and social investment that is essential for the development of our people.

    “Our priority areas are defined in our economic programmes. Every area is our priority and you belong in the driver’s position to realize and make that priority a fulfilling promise to the entire nation and the continent of Africa.

    “You must achieve the economic growth that is expected of us. We must feed our people. We must leverage on what we have and grow more to satisfy Nigerians. It is all in your hands now.”

    President Tinubu said he was prepared to listen to the ministers whenever they have concerns.

    Edun told reporters that he presented a “Roadmap for the Economy,” noting that the FEC agreed that the economy is not where it ought to be.

    He also said that FEC examined eight priority areas and identified targets to deliver in the next three years, adding that the President had charged the ministers to roll out policies and programmes to turn the economy around.

    “The overriding conclusion is that we’re not where we should be and we also examined the President’s eight-point agenda, that is, the eight priority areas for moving the Nigerian economy forward and for delivering to Nigerians and those are basically food security; ending poverty, economic growth and job creation, access to capital, particularly consumer credit, inclusivity in all its dimensions, particularly as regards youths and women, improving security, improving the playing field on which people and particularly companies operate, rule of law, and of course, fighting corruption.

    “It is around those matrix that the plans and the targets of what will be delivered in the next three years or so were identified, discussed and inputs were given by various ministers and we’ll now go away with the marching order to refine further the targets in particular and within weeks to start rolling out policies and programmes to turn around the economy and make things better for all Nigerians. That really is the substance of what the discussion was all about.”

  • ‘VAT hike’ll aggravate unemployment, poverty’

    By Lucas Ajanaku

    The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators (ABCON)  at the weekend warned against the proposed increase in  Value Added Tax (VAT) to 7.2 per cent from five per cent.

    The group insisted that the increase would accentuate unemployment and promote poverty in the country.

    The group gave the warning at a forum it tagged:  ABCON  Quarterly Economic Review for Third  Quarter (Q3). It faulted the move to expand the VAT net  and hike it, arguing that it was a conflicting strategy.

    “The immediate implication is that every Nigerian will either directly or indirectly be affected by the whopping 50 per cent increase in VAT. The average VAT collection in the past six  years is about N900 billion. The revenue is shared 15 per cent to the Federal Government, 50 per cent to states and 35 per cent to LGs net of four per cent cost of collection to Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS).

    “But beyond the revenue increase of about 50 per cent, there will be other attendant consequences, such as higher inflation rate, interest rate hike, more unemployment and people will generally become poorer.

    “It will increase the burden on the poor and SMEs contrary to the 2017 National Tax Policy. We also believe that  seeking to expand the VAT net while also increasing VAT rate at the same time is a conflicting strategy.

    “Instead ABCON review is of the opinion that the system can generate twice as much from VAT at current rate by expanding the scope of threshold and ensuring a robust administration rather than by increasing rate. A review of VAT waivers, better policing of the border to improve import VAT collection, framework for VAT on imported services and digital economy.”

    The group also called for a downward review of the cash processing fees introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the cashless policy.

    It stressed that though  the objective of the policy is laudable, the cash processing fees will  have severe impact on small businesses across the country.

    “The policy  stipulates three per cent processing fees for withdrawals and two per cent processing fees for lodgments of amounts above N500,000 for individual accounts while corporate accounts would attract five per cent processing fees for withdrawals and three per cent processing fees for lodgments of amounts above N3,000,000.

    “While the objectives of the policy are quite laudable and developmental in nature, a major observation is the consequent effect on small and medium scale business circles in Nigeria where business confidence is still largely low. Because of this,  a good volume of businesses are still largely in cash especially in the rural areas. Thus due to the likely negative effects in this critical segment of the economy,  we have recommended a lower processing fees  of between 0.5per cent to 0.75 per cent and one per cent to 1.25per cent for individual and business account holders.

    “The impact on the general economic performance and compliance to cashless policy would be observed and analysed for further amendments.”

    The group expressed concern over the rising level of the nation’s public debt, calling on the Federal Government to exercise caution and reduction in the public debt.

    In its review of the BDC subsector in Q3, the group urged BDC operators to develop strategies for attracting autonomous foreign exchange as well as for boosting inter-BDC trade  so as to reduce dependence on CBN intervention.

    “As business confidence increases within the BDC sub-sector, traders should improve on strategies to attract autonomous foreign exchange sources as against rigid concentration of CBN intervention funds,” the group said.

  • Capacity devt solution to unemployment, says Kumuyi

    The General Superintendent, Deeper Life Bible Church, Pastor William Kumuyi, has said capacity building is a panacea to unemployment

    Kumuyi stated this during the maiden edition of the Young Professional Forum (YPF) of the church’s Mega Summit, tagged: Gaining the edge, held at the international headquarters of the church in Lagos.

    He said youths are important in God’s plan and, as such, must live a transformed life so that they could make progress in their careers.

    Kumuyi, represented by the Lagos State Moderator of the church, Pastor Kenneth Nwosu, said due to the global economic meltdown that led to hardship in many countries, including Nigeria, there is a problem of unemployment. Moreover, there are only few white collar jobs  available for the huge population of qualified young people to vie for.

    ‘’The need to become self-employed and create businesses and enterprises that eventually will generate jobs that will reduce the problem of unemployment becomes very necessary, hence the church felt the need to, as part of her social responsibility, organise the Skill Acquisition Programme (SAP), through its in-house Young Professionals Forum (YPF) as a vital capacity building event to assist youths gain the required skills needed to enhance their employability and equally empower them in the quest for self-employment and also become employers themselves.

    He further noted that as part of efforts to assist in reducing the congestion in government owned universities, the Church established Anchor University as a way of contributing its own quota to the development of the young people with character and leadership skills for the advancement of the nation.

    During the summit, which attracted about 3,000 participants from various parts of the country, the keynote speaker, Dr. Famuyiwa Abiodun, who is the Head of Retail Business and Community Banking, FirstBank Nigeria, talked about “Winning in a competitive world”. He charged the participants to remain focused in order to remain at the top in life, saying: “To win in life, attitude is everything.

    YPF President Mr. Daniel Bamigbayan expressed optimism that there is hope for Nigeria and Africa.

    Other speakers were Chairman/Chief Executive Officer, Executive Motors, Dr. Ayo Ogunsan; Group Chief Information Officer, WAPIC Insurance, Tobe Nnadozie and Group HR Director Chanrai Summit Group Africa, Mr. Victor Adebayo.

    The highpoint of the event was the graduation of about 800 participants in the church’s third Skill Acquisition Programme (SAP).

     

  • Unemployment and time bombs

    IT is partially reassuring that the federal government recognises and fears the dangerous implications of unemployment. But such fears could very well turn into a nightmare in the next two years. The Minister of Labour, Employment and Productivity, Chris Ngige alluded to that looming catastrophe in a speech delivered during a workshop on breaking the resilience of high unemployment rate in Nigeria in Abuja. The current unemployment rate, he says, is already a hefty 23.1 percent, and it could rise to about 33.5 percent in two years time if nothing substantial is done to arrest and reverse the trend.

    As Dr Ngige put it:“It is a worrisome status as the global poverty capital (World Bank, 2018) and concomitant high prevalence rate of crimes and criminalities, including mass murders, insurgency, militancy, armed robbery, kidnappings, drug abuse, among others. As if this situation is not scary enough, it is projected that the unemployment rate for this country would reach 33.5 per cent by 2020, with consequences that are better imagined, if the trend is not urgently reversed. It is a thing of joy to note that Nigeria has not been resting on her oars over the years in terms of dedicated efforts to curb the unemployment problem.”

    The picture is truly dreary, far drearier and absolutely more urgent than the casualness of the government gives hope. Dr Ngige paints a brutal but frightening picture. How to mitigate that picture and render it more amenable should be the most pressing challenge for the government. There is undoubtedly some efforts being made to ameliorate the problem of unemployment; but to suggest that those measures are adequate, timely, focused and impactful is to put a sheen on what is clearly a terrifying problem. The measures are almost tokenistic, and the government’s urgency a far cry from what the situation demands.

    Dr Ngige is right to fear the worst, but he plays politics when he surrenders to his boundless optimism suggesting that the government appears quite up to the task. Well, time is running out, and youth restiveness, of a population that bears a disproportionate share of the malady, is simply staggering. Anyone who has observed deviancy trends in many parts of the country, particularly the Northwest and Northeast, must shudder to imagine what would be the impact of the long anticipated explosion.

    But if the Buhari presidency can hit the ground running in his second term, assemble the right and imaginative technocrats and aides, and put the right measures in place with full diligence and carefulness, perhaps the problem can be truly and finally mitigated. The alternative is too grim to contemplate.

  • ‘Coconut industry can solve unemployment problems’

    The General Manager of Lagos State Coconut Development Authority, Mr. Dapo Olakulehin, has said the huge potentials and derivable in coconut industry is capable of solving unemployment problems, if properly harnessed.

    Olakulehin spoke at the weekend in Lagos during a coconut investors’ forum organised by First African Coconut Company.

    The company chief noted that coconut is one of the greatest gifts of nature to man because it exhibits a wide range of products that make it a tree of life.

    He said the tree crop can grow in about 22 states across the country, adding that if investors put their money to promote it, they would reap from the economic multiplier effect in the value chain. The general manager said Lagos is blessed with a vast coconut belt of about 135 kilometres along the coastal line and about 703.19 kilometres on the island.

    “The state has potential of more than 10 million trees with annual production of above 1 billion husked nuts worth N50 billion. This could run into N350 billion annually with value addition,” he said. The Executive Chairman of First Africa Coconut, Mr. John-Bede Anthonio, said the value of coconut and its potentials has a high economic value that no investor would regret spending his or her fund on.

  • The jobless 20.9m

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has confirmed that the number of Nigerians without jobs rose in September of this year to 20.9 million. This time last year, the number of jobless Nigerians was 17.6 million. In percentage terms, the unemployment rate rose from 18.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2017 to 23.1 per cent in September 2018. This means that for every four Nigerians in employment, one person is without job. It is conceivable that the number of jobless Nigerians may be more than this, given the difficulty in having accurate data, especially from the rural areas.

    In both absolute and relative terms, having about 21 million Nigerians between 15 and 64 years old without jobs is alarming, particularly in view of the harm that poverty had caused in many parts of the world. Most countries hobbled by terrorists also have youth unemployment problems. Apart from Boko Haram, a high rate of unemployment in Nigeria can also lead to criminality and other forms of social disorder. Government thus needs to act fast to bring down this high rate of unemployment.

    Undoubtedly, rising unemployment did not start in this dispensation.  It has been rising steadily for about two decades. What is worrisome about the unemployment figure at the end of 2018 is that having over 20 million people without jobs seems to have belied all apparent policy efforts of the Federal Government in the last three years to cut the rate of unemployment. For example, in 2017 at the launch of the Economic Growth and Recovery Plan (EGRP), the Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment, Okechukwu Enemalah, confidently predicted that the plan would produce 3.7 million jobs annually between 2017 and 2020. Even with unemployment benefits such as N-Power, School-to-Work Job Scheme, Anchor Borrowers Programme, and Rural Employment Management Information System, the number of jobless Nigerians seems to be rising every quarter, even for several quarters after the end of recession.

    For whichever political party controls the government after the forthcoming elections, there is need for governments to find more creative ways to stimulate and sustain job creation. Admittedly, efforts so far to diversify the economy, particularly the new emphasis on agriculture fit into the pattern of economic development in other countries, much more than the traditional dependence on sale of petroleum. But if economic growth continues to derive from capacity of an economy to produce goods and services, the federal and state governments will need, more than ever, to address the fundamentals of job creation in a free market economy in the age of technology.

    We know that about 65 per cent of jobs in all free market economies are generated by small-scale companies in the private sector. And that most governments make rigorous efforts to create enabling environment for the private sector to thrive, so that it can create and sustain jobs in response to new additions to the population. None of today’s productive activities—from agriculture to manufacturing and marketing—can thrive without provision of reliable electricity. Thus, the centrality of electricity to job creation in the private sector ought to become the priority at every level of governance in 2019. We urge our governments to commit adequate attention to power supply in efforts to provide a conducive environment for job creation. Generally, it is when there is uninterrupted electricity that other measures, such as tax cuts, additional spending on public works, unemployment benefits, and reduced interest rates can be effective in stimulating a job-generating private sector.

     

  • ‘Skill acquisition antidote to unemployment’

    Job creation has since taken the centre stage in the country and everyone is saying skill acquisition is the way forward.

    At an event in Kwara State, scaling back youth unemployment and tackling restiveness were the major issues of discussion.

    At the event, the state Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed and a first class monarch in the state, Olupo of Ajase-Ipo, Oba Sikirullahi Atanda Sanni recommended skills acquisition as the panacea to youth unemployment in Nigeria.

    The duo said this at the first graduation ceremony of the International Vocational, Technical and Entrepreneurship College (IVTEC), Ajase-Ipo, Ifelodun local government area of the state.

    Oba Sanni specifically called on well-to-do individuals and organisations to sponsor youths to acquire skills at the college for overall growth and development of the country.

    This according to the monarch would reduce joblessness and youth restiveness in the country.

    He expressed gratitude to the governor for the establishment of the college Governor Ahmed counseled youths in the country to avoid being used as thugs by politicians.

    He said that youth should shun antisocial behavior and be well guided. No fewer than 291 students graduated from the college after acquiring advanced vocational skills in various technical fields.

    The governor tasked the graduands to use the skills acquired to take advantage of the numerous economic opportunities that abound locally, nationally and regionally.

    He added that “your newly-acquired skills place you in a strong position to take advantage of the extensive business and employment opportunities available to you.

    “Indeed, the quality of the training you have received here at IVTEC was driven by global standards and a curriculum designed in partnership the Nigeria Employers Consultative Association (NECA)”.

    The governor also explained that the skills acquired by the IVTEC class of 2018 give them an edge over others not only to create a livelihood for themselves but to be employers of labour.

    Governor Ahmed also spoke of his government’s resolve to provide the graduands with start-up funds required to set up various businesses and expand existing ones through affordable micro-credit.

    The governor, who underscored the importance of the college, emphasised that IVTEC was established as a way of getting more youths employed and minimized the risk of their involvement in criminal activities, insurgency and other social vices.

    Said he: “Let me start by congratulating you all for completing this intensive training programme in your various specialisations. “The graduating students have acquired modern vocational skills in automotive mechatronics, masonry, furniture and cabinet making, CCTV, web application, system security and networking, Computer hardware, electrical installation and maintenance, catering and culinary service, HVAC, welding and fabrication, building construction, syste security and networking and other vital vocational skills.

    “Your newly-acquired skills also place you in a strong position to take advantage of the extensive business and employment opportunities available to you. Indeed, the quality of the training you have received here at IVTEC was driven by global standards and a curriculum designed in partnership the Nigerian Employers Consultative Association (NECA). These initiatives place you in good stead to secure employment or set up successful businesses of your own.

    “Having equipped you with these skills through IVTEC, the state government also stands ready to provide you with the start-up funds required to set up your various businesses or expand existing ones through affordable micro-credit. However, our job of getting more of you into employment is not over.

    “Today, tertiary and other training institutions produce graduates at an exponentially higher rate than the public, and private sectors can employ. When you add those youths who do not make it past either primary or secondary schools, a vast army of the unemployed confronts us.

    “Being a proactive administration, we recognised the dearth of critical vocational skills and established IVTEC to provided business-relevant training as a reliable pathway out of unemployment

    and a means of economic empowerment. We also offer IVTEC as a way of getting more youths employed and minimising the risk of their involvement in criminal activity, insurgency and other social vices. “In this regard, our government balanced the cost of providing modern vocational skills with the need to expand students’ access regardless of social background with a 70 per cent scholarship at IVTEC.

    “We have also leveraged partnerships with globally renowned institutions to benchmark IVTEC against global standards in vocational and technical skills training as well as lay the foundation for making the state the hub of vocational skills. These institutions include as the World Bank, City and Guilds of London, Alfred University New York, and the University of Wolverhampton, National Directorate of Employment, as well as private sector companies. “Despite these strides, there is still much work to do if Nigeria is to meet the economy’s demand for vocational skills and boost youth employment.

    “I, therefore, call on the Federal Government and other state governments to prioritise technical training as a reliable tool for arresting the worrying scourge of youth unemployment, reducing the prospects of youth enrolment into violent acts such as insurgency and as a means of stimulating the economy through informal sector development. We offer IVTEC and its accomplishments as models that other governments can emulate.”

    Earlier, Rector of the college Dr Adekunle Somide said 170 of the 291 graduates were the direct result of the state government’s commitment to Youth Employment and Social Support Operations (YESSO) programme.

    He added that the graduates, within the three months of their training in various fields, had been exposed to different skills that could make them employers of labour.

    Also, Chairman, Governing Council of the college, Prof Abiodun Adimula urged the graduands to make marks in their workplaces by creating enviable standards.

    He reminded the graduates not to forget their alma mater as “the school is still in its infancy.”

    Prof Adimula added that the college had trained the graduates to become job creators and not job seekers.

    “University graduates have been here to acquire one form of training or the other. University undergraduates have also come here for their industrial training. The college is one of the best in the country. We expect the products to plough back into the college for the overall improvement of the college’s quality,” he said.

    Governor Ahmed later presented prizes to the best graduating students in the various disciplines, including Miss Latifat Ishaq, who emerges best overall graduating student.

  • Embrace business intrapreneurship, experts tell youths 

     

    Experts have recommended business reinvention as the key to sustainable entrepreneurship owing to global economic downturns.

    Led by Deputy Pro vice- chancellor University of Sussex, Prof. Richard Follett, the experts spoke at the Hot Topics Africa Forum with the theme: ‘Sustainable business, intrapreneurship and the future of work,’ at the Access Bank headquarters in Victoria Island, Lagos.

    Others include: Tosin Adebisi, Senior International Relations Manager, University of Sussex; Deola Adejuyigbe, Managing Director of Serve consultancy; Femi Taiwo, Executive Director of Leap Africa; Sola Amusan, Education Leader Microsoft; Funmi Oyatogun TVP Adventures and Tobi Aigbogun, Co-founder, Social Good Lagos,

    Follett stated intrapreneurship was the key to addressing economic disruptions.

    According to him, studies have shown corporations were becoming increasingly short-lived due to disruptions by newcomers.

    He said with accelerating technological change, innovating becomes critical if companies are to survive.

    “Research has shown that the most successful intrapreneurs and innovation-led organisations have supportive cultures and structures and are connected with external partners in extensive innovation ecosystems, including universities, research institutions and other companies,” he stressed.

    Addressing National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members who attended the forum, Follett, admonished told them to take advantage of opportunities that would equip them with skills and make them independent of paid employment after the scheme.

    “It is tough being an average unemployed Nigerian but you have to understand that taking yourself out of that situation is your own responsibility and not the government’s or society’s,”he stated.

    Head of Sustainability of Access Bank, Omobolanle Victor-Laniyan, urged the youths strive to become employers of labour, noting the organisers were clearly poised to achieve that which the country needed most.

    While engaging the youths to create original products that are unique and competitive, Mrs. Victor-Laniyan said Access Bank was ready to support such creative ideas to any length.

    According to her, it was important for youths to develop emotional intelligence and create proper financial plans that would align with their vision.

    “Young people must take action but knowing the right steps to take at every point is key.

    “You must take the first steps in the right direction and ensure that you are consistent with those steps and actions,” she stated.

    Sola Owonikoko, who heads one of the International partnership group, Impact Lens, said the best option was for the youths to target entrepreneurial skills development to enable them become self-reliant.

    According to him, it would be difficult for any government to provide employment for youths going by the teeming number of employable people in the country.

    He said: “If the youths are skilled in different vocations, it would not only reduce poverty but would encourage investment.”

     

  • ‘How to tackle poverty, unemployment’

    Nigerian Employers’  Consultative Association (NECA) has- warned that the country’s attempt at addressing insecurity, poverty, unemployment and other challenges will remain a mirage without restructuring.

    Its outgoing Director-General, Mr. Olusegun Oshinowo, argued that restructuring Nigeria would allow states take full responsibility for their resources and manage same to create wealth for their citizens.

    States’ dependence on the monthly federal allocations has made nonsense of the idea of a federal structure that Nigeria set out to operate, he said.

    Oshinowo said: “Nigeria must restructure to allow states take responsibility for certain aspects of this economy. Even if you have zero-level corruption, best of economic policies, if we don’t restructure, which will create wealth for the people, those policies won’t work. Today, it is only in Lagos and Abuja things seem to be happening. There are no economic opportunities for the citizens in other states. So what you find is a situation where Nigerians are moving out of those states to Lagos to find means of survival. This is not good for the economy.

    “The federating states must be able to provide opportunities to engage their citizens and fight poverty. This is why restructuring is necessary.”

    Oshinowo said the non-implementation of the agreement between the stakeholders and government was one of the things he regretted the most as NECA DG.

    He said one thing is to secure a space to engage with the government over an issue, another thing is for the government to implement the agreement.

    He said: “Engagement and implementation should be seen as a matter of right. It has been an ongoing battle in the private sector. Such thing cannot another in some country.

    “When you look at other countries, you will see a good nexus between the living standard of the citizen and the government. It’s very important to know the purpose of being in government which is to improve the living standard of the people. Any measure of performance or relevance of government is derived from how well the citizens are doing, no other measures.

    “This issue is not about excuses on why government policies have not worked. It’s not the business of the citizens. The citizens’ expectation is that we expect our welfare to be improved upon, how you go about it is not our business. All we expect is that on a regular basis, we are seeing improvement.

    “But in our own environment (Nigeria), that nexus is simply not there. Excuses are often given as why policies are not working. I think we need to change from that narrative. Any government that has not been able to provide evidence that it has lifted his people from poverty has no business in government.”

  • Unemployment: ITF to expand training facility

    •Gets pass mark from Senate for judicious use of funds

    The Industrial Training Fund (ITF) plans to expand its training facility amid its commendation by the Senate Committee on Industries for utilising funds allocated to it to execute projects to curb unemployment.

    The Committee Chairman, Dr. Sam Egwu, gave the commendation during its oversight tour of ITF projects and facilities in Lagos.

    Egwu was accompanied by Senators Barnabas Gemade, chairman, Senate Committee on Works and Housing, and Jibrin Barau, chairman, Senate Committee on Tertiary Institutions and TETFUND.

    The projects included the Industrial Skills Training Centre in Oregun and new Ikeja Area Office on Oba Akran being renovated, as well as its nine-storey edifice under construction at Iponri.

    Egwu said the visit was pursuant to the committee’s oversight responsibility as spelt out in Sections 88(1) and (2), 89(1) and (2) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 (as amended).

    He said: “The purpose of this oversight visit was to conduct an assessment on the level of budgetary implementation by the Fund, particularly the 2017/18 appropriation.

    “This visit will allow the committee to identify areas that require more attention in the upcoming 2019 budget visa-vis performance, appraisal of 2018 Budget, respectively.

    “We want to commend the management of the ITF for judicious use of funds to execute projects that are in line with providing manpower development for our nation.

    “The committee is satisfied with the quality of the ongoing projects and their levels of completion.”

    Egwu, however, urged the Federal Government to provide more funds for the Fund to enable it expand its training programmes to accommodate more Nigerians.

    Egwu assured the ITF management and staff of the committee’s continuous support and cooperation to actualising the agency’s mandate, particularly in legislation and appropriation of funds.

    Earlier, ITF Director-General (DG), Sir Joseph Ari, said the ongoing projects in the agency were geared towards creating more avenues for training of Nigerians, stressing that the agency was integral to the Federal Government N-Power programme.

    Ari emphasised that skills acquisition and entrepreneurship were pivotal to curbing unemployment and poverty in Nigeria, hence the focus being placed on it by the ITF.

    “We want to equip and empower Nigerians to have skills. That way, the economy will be boosted and all our people will be properly engaged,” he said.

    Ari said ITF had seven locations in Lagos State: Ikeja, Apapa, Isolo, Lekki, Badagry, Victoria Island and Lagos Island, where youths are being engaged in various skills acquisition programmes.

    He said the training programmes include: Automobile Engineering; Electrical Engineering; Welding and Fabrication; Information and Communication Technology; Refrigeration; Fashion Designing as well as Plumbing and Pipe Fitting.

    The DG also said the Lagos Island Area Office at Iponri, whose construction commenced in 2007, would be completed by February 2019.