This was the week the humdrum 2019 election campaigns came alive.
First, it was the opposition gloating over President Muhammadu Buhari’s performance during the NTA town hall programme ‘The Candidates,’ where he took questions in company of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.
The consensus of the critics was that the president was clueless on most subjects he was asked to address – leaving Osinbajo to helpfully spring forward with illuminating answers. In fact, the Vice President’s interventions became too frequent that the anchor, Kadaria Ahmed, had to interject that Buhari ‘can speak for himself.’
Supporters of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar, were all over social media sharing memes supposedly of leading All Progressives Congress (APC) figures looking stricken at the responses of their principal.
While the ‘Atikulators’ were still licking their chops in anticipation of what would happen at the forthcoming presidential debate, the ruling party’s campaign train berthed in Lokoja to a stunning welcome by another massive crowd. But what was news on social media was the image of the president tripping on the wing of his babanriga.
This was quickly celebrated by his foes as a ‘collapse’ by reason of ill-health. The APC twitter account soon hit back with an image of Barack Obama tripping on a public stage while still in office as US president. The message? The young also fall!
But even the most quick-witted of presidential defenders must have been stumped by what came next. Before a packed stadium in Warri, Delta State, Buhari while handing a flag to the APC’s governorship candidate, Great Ogboru, referred to him as ‘presidential candidate’! When a nearby official corrected him, he said ‘senatorial candidate’, before finally getting it right as gubernatorial or ‘governortorial’ candidate – depending on what you heard.
I am sure that even APC diehards with a sense of humour would have found the incident amusing, after getting over their initial embarrassment.
It was a gift from heaven to the opposition hordes starved of something to beat the president over the head with. The videos went viral with accompanying commentary that it was further evidence of the man’s unsuitability for the office he seeks.
So how much will Buhari’s public speaking skills or his being prone to gaffes affect his chances? Will they became the game-changers at this election? Not likely, if you ask me.
The jury is still out as to the impact of these debates. Around the world we have seen that they can tip things one way or the other in tight races. They can also help introduce upstart challengers to the electorate in dramatic fashion.
But that is not the case in this election. Buhari and Atiku are figures whom Nigerians are fairly familiar with. Both the president’s supporters and opponents also know he is no debater. In 2011, when he showed up for one such event he was outshone by the dazzling performance of Ibrahim Shekarau who was the candidate of the then All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP).
In spite of Shekarau’s oratory, he was a mere footnote at those polls dominated by Goodluck Jonathan and Buhari – two men not noted for their oratorical skills.
In environments such as ours, these debates are mere elite entertainment with little influence on electoral outcomes. The market woman who is going to vote Buhari or Atiku would not be doing so because of the candidates’ gift of gab, but based on more mundane factors.
So, we come to the gaffes. Up till date there’s a standing joke that PDP supporters entertain themselves with. They claim that at a press conference called late in 2014 to introduce his running mate, Buhari referred to Osinbanjo as ‘Osinbade’!
I am sure there were other gaffes made by the man during that electoral cycle, which people no longer remember. Depend on it that he would mangle a few more names before this campaign season is done. What is important is that, just as it had little or no impact in 2015, it’s won’t change much this time.
You only need to look at examples elsewhere to understand the limit to the damage gaffes can do. Ronald Reagan was one of America’s most popular presidents in the last four decades, but he was also a gaffe machine.
George W. Bush often stumbled from error to error – mangling syntax in the process. As for the incumbent US president Donald Trump, the less said the better. I am sure if you typed ‘gaffe’ in Google search, the image of the president would pop up! But in spite of the outrageous things he spews out of his mouth, his base of support remains rock solid.
British Prime Minister Theresa May goofed at her party’s last conference and one of her predecessors, Gordon Brown, sometimes had to have his foot extracted from his mouth.
I understand that the opposition has to do what it must do – which is hurl at Buhari whatever they think can damage him. Unfortunately for them, in the president they are confronted with one of those political foes that are difficult to handle.
They are polarising figures who are loved with as much passion as they are hated. Those who love them do so warts and all; those who despise them would remain that way even if they are transformed into angels.
Reagan, in his day, was nicknamed in the media “the Teflon President,” because of public perceptions that he was never tarnished by the controversies that arose during his administration.
According to the Congresswoman Patricia Schroeder, who coined the phrase, and the Washington Post reporter Howard Kurtz, the epithet referred to Reagan’s ability to “do almost anything wrong and not get blamed for it.”
He was never respected for his intellect – indeed many in the chattering classes viewed him as very shallow. He was notorious for dozing off during cabinet meetings. But despite his well-advertised shortcomings he had some of the highest popularity ratings of any US president ever.
Just like Buhari, Reagan was an old man – almost 70 when he took office and was 78 when he left – and this was blamed for his struggles. In the last few days as the president went from poor town hall outing to campaign ground stumble, his critics started raising old questions about his age.
These were the same questions he was confronted with in 2015. Back then he was running against a man in his 50s – so the contrast was stark. This time, one of two old men – Buhari, 76, or Atiku 72 – would be elected president come February 16. Based on existing parameters they are the only ones that stand a chance. Their parties are also not about to substitute them. So, our choices are set in stone for now.
You would expect that it would cause us to leave age and move on to other things. However, this is a campaign where serious issues have become non-issues, so age has been thrust to the fore again.
Any fair discussion about age should address the fact that Atiku is also in his 70s. He may look like he’s in better health than Buhari, but the long term fitness of a septuagenarian is not something you can bet a bank on.
Recently, an attempt by a BBC reporter, Mayeni Jones, to raise the age question with the PDP flagbearer had him protesting about people discriminating against him because of his age. He said he had not stopped younger people from running. So, I suspect that this will not be comfortable territory even for Atiku.
Which safely leads me to conclude that this election will not be decided by factors like debates, gaffes and age. You can also discount any serious discussion of issues like security, corruption or the economy.
It would boil down, as often as is the case, to the personalities of the leading candidates. Over the years Buhari’s selling point has been the public belief that he’s honest and straightforward. The crowds baying ‘Sai Baba’ won’t be too bothered if tomorrow he mistakenly hands the APC flag to the President of Ghana!
As for Atiku, the best the opposition can say is that he’s the anti-Buhari: energetic, a democrat and advocate of restructuring. But the other side of being the anti-Buhari is to be branded the poster boy for sleaze.
For years he’s been struggling to separate himself from the tag of corruption hung on his neck by his foes. He would require the skills of a political Houdini to successfully deodorise himself before the electorate in just four weeks.
Atiku goes to America
Atiku Abubakar’s surprise trip to the United States is a public relations coup for him personally and for his party. 
His inability to enter the US over the past 12 years has been a cloud over his head and a reference point for those who accuse him of wrongdoing. He has been able to strike off one negative and deny the ruling APC a major weapon of attack.
What I find especially impressive is the fact that details of the trip were so closely guarded and were not made public until the team was landing at Dulles Airport. It was stunning because there was no certainty that he even had a visa and thoughts that the visit would actually happen had receded in the public space.
While the trip lasts, the feel-good factor would help to energise his base. But I don’t see many defecting to his side because he finally entered Washington D.C. Crucially, I doubt whether this close to the elections there are still many undecided voters who would be sufficiently impressed by the fact that he finally got an American visa.
Unlike the 2015 polls when so much was made about the influence of Obama and the Americans on the polls, any suggestion that there could be external influence that may significantly affect the February 16 outcome, would be gross exaggeration.
To all intents this was at best a meet-and-greet trip – nothing for the PDP to get too rapturous about and nothing for the APC to mourn over.