A weak-kneed federal government ever so eager to claw at just anything to be seen at doing something about the Boko Haram menace. A weary Boko Haram caught in dire prospects of being routed in the senseless but clearly unwinnable war against the state.
Throw in the well-choreographed high-decibel propaganda by self-styled elders alleging genocide in the atmosphere of an unprecedented offensive by the Joint Military Task Force (JTF). No better scenario could have been contrived for a so-called dialogue.
Welcome to the Made in Saudi Arabia dialogue sought by the Boko Haram for and on behalf of themselves and their sympathisers! Finally, it seems time to bring in the old template of appeasement!
What has changed to necessitate the offer by the group to negotiate with the federal government?
Good question.
The first and perhaps the most obvious is the changing military equation between the JTF and the terrorists. Whatever misgivings lie about the on-going operations by the JTF, there is no longer any question as who between them is having the upper hand. I do not think anyone suffers the illusion that the men of the JTF would beat a retreat anymore than the terrorists would come to some Pauline conversion in some future time. To its credit, the JTF isn’t just increasingly having a firm grip on the war, it seems to have done well in the difficult circumstances it found itself. While it seems far-fetched to suggest at this point that the Boko Haram is close to being decapitated, there are enough signs to suggest that the noose may finally be tightening in on the group. This obviously needs to be sustained.
The second reason is the collateral costs on both sides which continues to mount. While the burden of the war on terror would seem barely tolerable to the federal government, the economies in most states in the North-east where the Boko Haram are on rampage not only lie in ruins, they are in tatters. But worse is that the prospects of socio-economic activities in the foreseeable future look increasingly grim. Unfortunately, it seems to me that the leaderships in the areas worst hit by the activities of the terrorists pretend to be oblivious of this reality; or is it that they underrated the resolve of the federal government to confront the menace?
How about their positions which have oscillated between playing the ostrich and feigning ambivalence on the Boko Haram question? Or their latest rallying cry in which the JTF is accused of genocide?
Agreed, the charge of excessive use of force including allegations of rape and summary executions of innocent citizens in the theatre of operations may possess some grains of truth. If true, the crimes would be inexcusable. However, it does appear to me that these cannot be as generalised as painted by the Borno Elders Forum. Of course, the allegations deserve to be investigated and where the crimes are established, punished.
Be that as it may, the nation as it is, would remain eternally in debt to the JTF to for pushing the costs of the insanity, or if you like the insurgency –to the sect and their sponsors – far beyond their assumed gains. That the option of dialogue has suddenly become conceivable is because the Boko Haram realises the futility of the war! The magic is to make things irreversible!
I need to highlight a third factor which has made dialogue conceivable. It is the question of how long it would take for the cover of the big masquerades behind the sect to be blown. It seems to me that it is no longer a question of “if” but how soon this would be achieved. It is after all, common knowledge that two senators and an ex-Governor from Borno State are under security watch; indeed, one of the senators is currently undergoing trial; the other under investigation for an alleged link with a suspect currently in custody. At intervals, the name of the ex-governor keeps popping up as if to hint at a complex but intriguing internecine play. By the way, I do not think that anybody needs further proof of how embedded the Boko Haram is in the North-east or wherever the forces of the Boko Haram have been on rampage.
So, how to go? Time for the security agencies to follow the money. It’s hard to imagine that the security agencies have up till this time not stumbled on valuable leads on the financiers of the Boko Haram.
What do I think about the proposed dialogue? Dialogue is of course good. It is after all, infinitely cheaper than fighting an all out war. The question is what will the Saudi dialogue as proposed by the Boko Haram achieve? More pertinent question is what does the Boko Haram want?
It may well be that the Saudi dialogue may help resolve the riddle of what the group really want or what it actually represents. For now, it seems premature to even speculate on whether their desires can be accommodated in a secular, republican state. Even then, it seems that the more immediate task is one of isolating the original Boko Haram from the mutant but no less bloody-thirsty variants loosed upon the nation.
That done, the next charge is to deal with the matter of the innocent victims of their mindless terror. Will that also come up in the course of the parley? Will the group also be willing to pay restitutions to victims of their terrorist acts? On a more serious note, will the leaders be expected to repudiate the satanic ideology which legitimises mass murder?
Of course, the more embracing question is whether, given the state of security in the North today, it would not amount to a sheer waste of time and resources to make the Boko Haram the issue. I make the point because of our penchant to treat symptoms rather than deal with organic causes of disease. The root of Boko Haram lies in poverty and failure of governance. Will those also be part of the agenda at the Saudi forum?
• This column goes on vacation from next week
