Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola will win the August 9 governorship election by 73 per cent, if there is a free and fair election, TSN-RSM, a survey group, has predicted.
The research firm, which is a member of Gallup International, also reported that Aregbesola’s main challenger and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Iyiola Omisore, is behind by 54 points.
However, the survey, which was conducted in Osun State between June and last month, also said that public confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has dropped by 10 points.
The survey stated: “The APC continues to dominate the political landscape in Osun State, judging by its performance on key indicators evaluated. It scored highest and increased in rating on first mention, sympathy and voting intention.”
It added: “The governor, Rauf Aregbesola, is the candidate of choice by Osun voters with 73 per cent lead over other candidates. This is a clear indication that the choice of Osun voters in the next governorship race is Governor Rauf Aregbesola.”
Omisore polled 19 per cent, representing a two percent decline from the earlier survey.
“The governor remains the main voting choice. Voting choice for Senator Omisore declined by two per cent and seemed not to pose a threat to the incumbent’s chances of re-election as he remains firmly ahead of the race.”
“Not only is the APC the most preferred party in Osun State, it has largely retained this goodwill from way back in the past. It was the party that most people claimed to have voted for in the last election and it is still the party with the highest chances of winning the election again. More importantly, the gap by which it outperforms the opposition, continues to widen and more convincing in the survey.”
In the report, the APC is rated very high as its top-of-mind and awareness increased from 75 per cent to 78 per cent over the two polls, followed by the PDP with 18 per cent, a drop of three per cent from 21 per cent in the first study.
The Labour Party (LP) came third, with a negligible one per cent. Furthermore, the “electorate choice” for the APC is now 70 per cent, boosted by one per cent increment. Nineteen percent indicated that they would vote for the PDP, which represented another three per cent drop. The electorate’s choice for the LP remained one percent.
The report stressed: “While Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is more known than his party, Senator Iyiola Omisore is less known than his party. The top-of-mind awareness of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola increased to 85 per cent (from 79 per cent), affinity increased from 72 per cent to 74 per cent and chances of being re-elected increased from 71 per cent to 73 per cent.”
“Conversely, it is a tale of decline for the man in the second place, Senator Omisore. For the top-of-mind awareness, the PDP candidate dropped to 13 per cent from 19 per cent, affinity fell to 19 per cent from 21per cent and chances of being elected declined to 19 per cent from 21 per cent.”
The analysis showed that while the affinity of the Osun electorate towards the APC increased by four per cent, the PDP failed to maintain its connection to the people. The positive perception of the APC by Osun voters stood at 83 per cent while on 17 per cent viewed the APC as unfavourable.
According to the polls, 98 per cent of respondents said they would participate in the August 9 election. This suggests that the people are prepared for any eventuality in election.
The survey also showed the strength of the candidates and their parties in the local government areas across the state.
“The repeat of the APC high chance to win in all the local government areas (LGAs) seem to play out again in the next election. The APC is poised to repeat this feat, except in Ife Central and Ife East. The PDP seemed well-positioned to win these two LGAs. The LP’s weakness is imminent across all the LGAs.
“The incumbent’s chances of being reelected remain same across the LGAs, except in Ife Central and Ife East. The incumbent’s chances of re-election remain high and leads his closest rival by a good margin of 54 per cent – an increment of four per cent over the last survey.”
But the voters’ confidence in the INEC dropped to from 57 per cent to 67 per cent.
Statistically, the research firm stated that that “the margin of error for the survey is “plus or minus five per cent, with 95 per cent level of confidence.”
