An election observer group, Yiaga Africa, has predicted low voter turnout for the Imo, Bayelsa, and Kogi Governorship elections despite a high collection rate of permanent voter cards.
The organisation based the prediction on the “pre-election violence, a deep sense of citizens’ distrust, apparent fear of intimidation, voter fatigue and loss of faith in elections as a means to achieving democratic leadership.”
To avoid the situation, Yiaga Africa advocated for eleventh-hour confidence-building voter education to improve voter turnout.
A member of the Board of Yiaga Africa, Ezenwa Nwagwu stated this during a pre-election press conference on Friday in Abuja.
The organisation would be deploying 659 duly trained and accredited stationary and roving observers to observe the conduct of the governorship election in the three states.
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According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the number of Permanent Voters Cards (PVC) collected in Bayelsa was 1,017,613, in Imo, 2,318,919 and 1,833,160 in Kogi state.
“Despite these high collection rates, Yiaga Africa projects low voter turnout in the respective states owing to the spate of pre-election violence, a deep sense of citizens’ distrust, apparent fear of intimidation, voter fatigue and loss of faith in elections as a means to achieving democratic leadership. Yiaga Africa advocates for eleventh-hour confidence-building voter education to improve voter turnout.”
He said at the end of the polls, Yiaga Africa observers would be deployed to all LGAs and State’s results collation centres to observe and report the results collation process.
Nwagwu said: “This will involve deploying 600 stationary observers to a representative randomly selected sample of 300 polling units for each of these 2 states. In addition to the PRVT methodology, Yiaga Africa will deploy 9 observers in Bayelsa State to observe the process and LGA results collation.
“This deployment will enable Yiaga Africa to provide the most timely and accurate information on the governorship elections in the states. Using the Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT), Yiaga Africa will also provide an independent projection of voter turnout in Imo and Kogi States and will be able to project the vote shares that each party should receive within a narrow-estimated range. If the official results fall within Yiaga Africa’s estimated ranges, then the public, political parties, and candidates should have confidence in the ballots cast at the polling units.
“Only INEC has the legal mandate to announce the election results. As soon as INEC announces the official results, Yiaga Africa will follow up with a result verification press conference to share its statement on the accuracy of the election results. Utilising information communications technology and statistical principles, PRVT is the gold standard for citizen election observation and has been utilised throughout Africa and the world. Yiaga Africa has also deployed this methodology in the 2019 & 2023 Presidential elections and in 14 State Governorship Elections.”
Yiaga Africa also called on INEC to ensure the operational shortcomings in previous elections are properly addressed ahead of the elections, especially the early deployment of election materials to all polling units.
He said: “Collation and Returning Officers deployed in the election should be individuals of proven integrity and impeccable character. INEC should ensure effective oversight to enforce compliance with the provisions of the Electoral Act 2022 and guidelines on results collation.
“INEC should ensure proper and timely communication with stakeholders on the election day process, challenges experienced and immediate plans to address those challenges to inspire citizens’ confidence in the process.”