The division between the North and South over zoning has widened. Will the zoning question, its resolution or non-resolution, shape next year’s presidential election?
Some have argued that rotation is not a constitutional matter. But, the constitution has alluded to the imperative of national unity and integration. How to achieve that togetherness is often downplayed or sacrificed on the altar of partisan politics.
If the zoning challenge is going to be resolved by the constitution, then, the race for the presidential tickets of the two major political parties-the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)-will be thrown open.
If it is thrown open, then, certain forces are likely to exploit religion and ethnicity to secure a pre-determined outcome at the primaries in a fragile federation of unequal bloc regions.
However, if it is going to be resolved by political tradition or convention, it means the two main parties would be embracing the reality of pre-existing agreements among their founding fathers. The object of the agreement is to ensure that the bloc region that would have occupied the number one seat for eight years in 2023 should not produced the next president.
Whether the question will be resolved appropriately or otherwise may have implications, not only for cohesion in the parties, but also for national unity. It is up to the parties to rationally and realistically confront the question. It is up to the electorate to react on poll day to the approaches, identical or differential, that may be adopted by the two parties.
The genesis of the zoning agitation is that Nigeria has not been one, and may never be one, if its lopsided formular for power and resource distribution is not reviewed, redesigned or reconfigured to reflect diverse and collective interests. In as much as a particular zone remains in a vantage position to always produce the president to the exclusion of other regions, the feeling of marginalisation, alienation, exploitation and oppression will not fizzle out. Unity and peace may remain a tall order in an atmosphere of nepotism. The feeling about master-servant relationship will persist. The result is an enduring bitterness, which may continue to dispose the country to fragility, disintegration and chaos.
During the week, the agitation for zoning intensified. The South renewed its demand for power shift through rotation.
In the APC, the Southwest’s claim is that it is a critical factor in the alliance that produced President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015. Therefore, there is an agreement over power shift that should be honoured. Besides, the Southwest is the strongest ally and stronghold of the ruling party in the South.
Southwest progressives leaders also claim that although the zone produced President Olusegun Obasanjo, he was of the PDP. Now is the time to produce an APC president from the Progressives West.
Also in the South, the Southsouth, which has produced President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP, is claiming that it is a major stake holder in the APC and indeed, Nigeria, being the zone that lays the golden egg. The oil-bearing zone also claims that without it, Nigeria may not economically survive.
The claim of the Southeast is that apart from the six years of ceremonial presidency of Dr. Nnamidi Azikiwe and six months of Major General Thomas Aguiyi Ironsi military regime, it has not tasted power. The zone is fighting in the APC, which it has not fully embraced. Indeed, the ruling party is perpetually struggling to build on its skeletal presence in Igboland.
Yet, Southeast is also sweating in the PDP, where Northern stakeholders are unwilling to concede its presidential ticket to Igboland, but always ready to dangle the carrot of running mate, which pales into a spare tyre. Although Southeast has continued to consistently support PDP, the possibility of picking its presidential standard bearer from the zone for 2023 poll is remote.
So distressing is the fate of Southeast in the opposition party that the pan-Igbo umbrella organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, has pleaded with Southeast politicians not to play second fiddle.
The Southwest organisation, Afenifere, in sympathy with the Southeast, also decided to uncritically disown presidential contenders from the West by urging the two parties to zone their tickets to the Southeast. While Northern groups are defending the interest of the North, and the Southeast group is articulating the aspiration of Southeast, the Southwest organisation is neglecting Southwest’s interest and defending the interest of the Southeast.
The strategy of the North is different. Northern forces are not directly calling for power retention. They are only pushing for ‘open contest’ at the shadow polls of the ruling and opposition parties. They have the backing of the Arewa Consultative Forum, which has warned Southern voices against what it described as blackmail. If their demand is upheld by the leadership of the two parties, then, they are certain that the North, head or tail, will retain the tickets.
When the idea of zoning was mooted in the PDP, the composition of the panel that debated it showed that it had more members from the North. According to observers, the report was predictable. Northern PDP is comfortable with abolition of zoning, to the consternation of Southern members.
The North appears to be bullying the South with its numerical strength, number of local governments and states, and hence, number of delegates. In democracy, that number is important. But, the lopsided federation has often come under criticism. If the structure will change, it may not be in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the South is also resisting, saying that an ‘open’ race is antithetical to equitable power distribution.
The thinking in the PDP that a Southern candidate cannot win the poll is also infuriating to the South, which has continued to claim that without home support, Obasanjo won in 1999.
The argument that the last PDP president, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, came from the South is also weak. It will not resolve the fear of domination and marginalisation that would arise from 16 years of Northern presidency.
In the APC, some people are also insinuating that a Southern candidate may not be able to defeat a Northern PDP flagbearer. It underscores the fallacy of their ideas about political competition, as the contest should not really be between the North and South, but between the APC and the PDP.
Like the PDP, zoning is also a major hurdle in APC. National Chairman Abdullahi Adamu’s recent remark that the party has not taken any decision on it jolted Southern chieftains out of their delusion that the agenda can be actualised without some sorts of struggle. The statement has inadvertently strengthened the dictatorship of numbers. If Adamu were not from the North, he may have been more circumspect. Historically, there was never a time a national party officially announced zoning. What has been in vogue was that the national caucus, National Working Committee (NWC) and National Executive Committee (NEC) will discuss and zone unofficially. There is a targeted zone. The party has its internal communication channel. The unofficial decision may not forbid aspirants from other zones to participate. Eyes will not be on them at the primary. Definitely, the targeted zone may have more aspirants. Anytime the zoning convention is breached, the party may go for primary in crisis and anxiety.
The reaction to Adamu’s remark came from a governor, who does not want to pretend to be a politician. It reflected the mood of the South.
Ondo State Governor Rotimi Akeredolu was combative as he warned about the consequences of dumping rotation.
However, pro-zoning agitators seem to be oblivious of the fact that rotation can only be accomplished by a struggle that is also characterised by dialogue, persuasion and mutual understanding. It is a game that can only be won by tact, skill and deployment of socio-political implements.
Yet, Akeredolu’s argument is meaningful, reasonable and logical. He urged the APC to make a categorical statement on the matter. He recalled that the choice of NWC members
was guided by the principle of zoning. He also warned that the neglect of zoning could lead to friction, crisis, acrimony, bitterness and distrust in the party ahead of the primary.
The governor merely re-echoed the popular resolution of the Southern Governors’ Forum in Lagos and Asaba, which has been adopted by a wider spectrum of stakeholders from the Southwest, Southeast, Southsouth and Middle Belt.
In particular, Akeredolu wondered why the party leadership, which adopted zoning during its recent convention in Abuja, cannot exhibit its commitment to the same principle as presidential convention draws near..
This is the crux of the matter: what factors gave birth to zoning, federal character, catchment area and ‘turn by turn?’ It is to give all the regions and component units of the federation a sense of belonging, inclusion and fulfillment.
It started in the education sector. In tertiary matriculation examinations, it was discovered that while candidates from the South were passing in flying colours, candidates from some states in the highly populated North could not fly. It was reasoned that for equity, justice and fairness, the gap between the educationally backward North and the South should be bridged. The South had to make a painful sacrifice as candidates who scored above 200 in the examination could not get admission while candidates who got below 150 were admitted.
Even, in admissions into Federal Government Colleges, candidates who score 165 may not get admission while Northern candidates who score below 100 may be admitted.
However, when it comes to fair distribution of political offices, particularly the presidency, the North is always reluctant to surrender the position. If quota system is upheld, why can’t zoning be affirmed for unity, stability and management of diversity? Is it not in national interest? Would it not boost mutual confidence and peaceful coexistence?